First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Arizona State(-14) over Colorado (1*)
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Indiana(-9') over Western Kentucky (1*)
- - I'm liking both plays, but expecting nothing easy. That for should.
GL
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Indiana(-9') over Western Kentucky (1*)
- - I'm liking both plays, but expecting nothing easy. That for should.
GL
NCAA YTD: 38-26 (+9.30*)
NFL YTD: 12-15 (-4.50*)
Iowa(-3)(-115) over Maryland (1*)
- - Last week I took Notre Dame, and I posted: ?I was anticipating a play on Wisconsin(-3) or so before Notre Dame played Purdue last week. No chance I am playing Wisconsin(-6).? . . . This week I was anticipating a play on Maryland(+8) or so before Iowa State and Indiana showed once again they are not all that, but no chance I am playing Maryland(+3).
GL
NFL YTD: 12-15 (-4.50*)
Iowa(-3)(-115) over Maryland (1*)
- - Last week I took Notre Dame, and I posted: ?I was anticipating a play on Wisconsin(-3) or so before Notre Dame played Purdue last week. No chance I am playing Wisconsin(-6).? . . . This week I was anticipating a play on Maryland(+8) or so before Iowa State and Indiana showed once again they are not all that, but no chance I am playing Maryland(+3).
GL
Nebraska(-11') over Northwestern (1*)
- - I go back and forth on whether Nebraska or Penn State is the Big Ten side I like best today, but no going back and forth in either game on whether I should play the other side or pass.
Penn State(-12') over Indiana (1*)
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Ohio State(-15) over Rutgers (1*)
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Wisconsin(-2) over Michigan (1*)
- - This is an interesting game in Big Ten Country. But my capping tells me that Michigan has nothing like a 54% chance of being the right side.
Charlotte(+10) over Illinois (1*)
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Minnesota(+3)(-125) over Purdue (1*)
- - I would find either team to be a live dog. But Minnesota more so.
Missouri(-2') over Tennessee (1*)
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USC(-9) over Colorado (1*)
- - I play plenty of ?lines that stink?, far more often than making them the basis for a play that makes no sense to me, and I think I do all right with those wagers, although not as well when it is the case with an NFL game. When I do hesitate with lines that stink, I can usually find some nuggets of INFORMATION or ANGLES that offer some justification. IMO the only justification with this line would be that USC is completely off the rails, and I think it?s at least a short term move in the right direction with the Trojans.
Cincinnati(-2) over Notre Dame (1*)
- - For starters, the line on Cinci games during the 2020 season grew by the hour as kickoff approached, and while they only went 6-4 ATS against the closing line, my posted plays on Cinci last year went 6-2-1, and 2-0 at the close of 2019, and 2-0 this year, for a 10-2-1 run backing them every time, so regrets to anyone who has been late to the party, especially those on the other side . . . Second, the number of times I see forum posts, or cappers around the internet, saying Cinci is a fraud, time to go against Cinci, etc., etc., definitely equal or exceed the winning posts and plays I see, and I just don?t understand that at all . . . Third, while I am no expert on football schemes and strategies despite over 50 years of passionately watching more hours of football games than 95% of the posters and visitors to this forum (and I do watch that much football, for 50+ years), I do understand that in big games (after accounting for situational factors), it is critical that a team have matchups that it can exploit in a crucial game plan, and Cinci is no fraud when it comes to having players and playmakers all over the field that they can bring to bear and exploit in any contest of crucial matchups. Add in an exceptionally underrated head coach and staff that very much know what they are doing, a complementary brand of football in which every unit deserves credit for making game changing plays when another unit might need a boost, and a culture on the team that makes for winners, and I really don?t understand the skeptics . . . Fourth, while I would not swap out Desmond Ridder as QB of this team for anybody, I do think he could have and should have played better than he has at the helm; and I don?t know if Cinci is a Top 4 team, but I will be betting all the way through the Bowl games that they are comfortably a Top 15 team in 2021, unlike Indiana, and unlike North Carolina, and unlike . . . Fifth, except for the benefit of the week off, I think it is ridiculous that Cinci is made the favorite to march into South Bend and win today, but I am used to ridiculous lines in Cinci games, and even though I sadly think Notre Dame finds a way to win this game, I just plunk down my cash on Cinci and enjoy the journey.
GL
- - I go back and forth on whether Nebraska or Penn State is the Big Ten side I like best today, but no going back and forth in either game on whether I should play the other side or pass.
Penn State(-12') over Indiana (1*)
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Ohio State(-15) over Rutgers (1*)
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Wisconsin(-2) over Michigan (1*)
- - This is an interesting game in Big Ten Country. But my capping tells me that Michigan has nothing like a 54% chance of being the right side.
Charlotte(+10) over Illinois (1*)
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Minnesota(+3)(-125) over Purdue (1*)
- - I would find either team to be a live dog. But Minnesota more so.
Missouri(-2') over Tennessee (1*)
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USC(-9) over Colorado (1*)
- - I play plenty of ?lines that stink?, far more often than making them the basis for a play that makes no sense to me, and I think I do all right with those wagers, although not as well when it is the case with an NFL game. When I do hesitate with lines that stink, I can usually find some nuggets of INFORMATION or ANGLES that offer some justification. IMO the only justification with this line would be that USC is completely off the rails, and I think it?s at least a short term move in the right direction with the Trojans.
Cincinnati(-2) over Notre Dame (1*)
- - For starters, the line on Cinci games during the 2020 season grew by the hour as kickoff approached, and while they only went 6-4 ATS against the closing line, my posted plays on Cinci last year went 6-2-1, and 2-0 at the close of 2019, and 2-0 this year, for a 10-2-1 run backing them every time, so regrets to anyone who has been late to the party, especially those on the other side . . . Second, the number of times I see forum posts, or cappers around the internet, saying Cinci is a fraud, time to go against Cinci, etc., etc., definitely equal or exceed the winning posts and plays I see, and I just don?t understand that at all . . . Third, while I am no expert on football schemes and strategies despite over 50 years of passionately watching more hours of football games than 95% of the posters and visitors to this forum (and I do watch that much football, for 50+ years), I do understand that in big games (after accounting for situational factors), it is critical that a team have matchups that it can exploit in a crucial game plan, and Cinci is no fraud when it comes to having players and playmakers all over the field that they can bring to bear and exploit in any contest of crucial matchups. Add in an exceptionally underrated head coach and staff that very much know what they are doing, a complementary brand of football in which every unit deserves credit for making game changing plays when another unit might need a boost, and a culture on the team that makes for winners, and I really don?t understand the skeptics . . . Fourth, while I would not swap out Desmond Ridder as QB of this team for anybody, I do think he could have and should have played better than he has at the helm; and I don?t know if Cinci is a Top 4 team, but I will be betting all the way through the Bowl games that they are comfortably a Top 15 team in 2021, unlike Indiana, and unlike North Carolina, and unlike . . . Fifth, except for the benefit of the week off, I think it is ridiculous that Cinci is made the favorite to march into South Bend and win today, but I am used to ridiculous lines in Cinci games, and even though I sadly think Notre Dame finds a way to win this game, I just plunk down my cash on Cinci and enjoy the journey.
GL
Western Michigan(-7) over Buffalo (1*)
- - If I win just one out of the first two of these extra plays, by hook or by crook, then I will feel completely justified in adding them . . . But unless Texas rolls by two scores, I will feel adding the Texas game was a silly play too many, even if it covers.
Arkansas(+16') over Georgia (1*)
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Texas(-4) over TCU (1*)
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GL
- - If I win just one out of the first two of these extra plays, by hook or by crook, then I will feel completely justified in adding them . . . But unless Texas rolls by two scores, I will feel adding the Texas game was a silly play too many, even if it covers.
Arkansas(+16') over Georgia (1*)
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Texas(-4) over TCU (1*)
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GL
California(-7') over Washington State (1*)
- - - - There is no earthly reason why I should be making this wager, except I'm hearing QB Chase Garbers is playing really well. HA-HA-HA, he won't while carrying my money.
GL
- - - - There is no earthly reason why I should be making this wager, except I'm hearing QB Chase Garbers is playing really well. HA-HA-HA, he won't while carrying my money.
GL
UCLA(-3) over Arizona State (1*)
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Fresno State(-10') over Hawaii (1*)
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LSU(-3) over Auburn (1*)
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GL
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Fresno State(-10') over Hawaii (1*)
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LSU(-3) over Auburn (1*)
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GL
Last 2 posts were no way to end a good day.
You should have gone to the golf course instead :0corn
You should have gone to the golf course instead :0corn
Cincinnati(-30) over Temple (1*)
- - My post last week discussed an 11-2-1 run with automatic plays on Cincinnati to cover ridiculous numbers. Nothing special for jumping on this game, but nothing special for staying away or playing the other side, so it is another auto play.
GL
- - My post last week discussed an 11-2-1 run with automatic plays on Cincinnati to cover ridiculous numbers. Nothing special for jumping on this game, but nothing special for staying away or playing the other side, so it is another auto play.
GL
Nebraska(+3)(-125) over Michigan (1*)
- - I went with Nebraska as a really, really strong play last week. Nothing so sure today, and all I expect this week is that the team with two conference losses has found something that will have them fighting and scratching just as hard as they have the last three weeks to earn a big conference win here as a live dog.
Iowa(-2) over Penn State (1*)
- - Both teams have been very good to me since Week #1. In a game that has truly been the most underrated rivalry in the Big Ten during the 23 year tenure of Pittsburgh native Kirk Ferentz, my take is that no matter what reasons I can offer up for playing Penn State in this game, I know more reasons for playing Iowa.
Wisconsin(-11) over Illinois (1*)
- - Maybe Wisconsin is garbage, or maybe they don?t care right now, but otherwise they could not have a much better spot to show otherwise.
Arkansas(+5) over Mississippi (1*)
- - The character and weapons I?ve seen from Arkansas this year appeal to me more than the favorite.
Michigan State(-4') over Rutgers (1*)
- - I heard it said about this game that it is a tough time in the season for undefeated teams to take to the road, and MSU is already over their 4.5 game win total for the season (although Rutgers with 3 wins might almost be at that level, too). Without any research by me to support the claim, I thought that sounded like an angle with merit. But I?ve been 2-0 with plays on Rutgers and 1-0 with a big play against Rutgers last week, and I don?t think Rutgers rolls to a huge win in this spot even with a superior effort, and this next leg in a brutal stretch looks very tough for an outcome that covers this small number. MSU had 7 turnovers in losing the season opener to Rutgers last year under new HC Mel Tucker, and Tucker seems the type to have a long memory for that shit show, making this very much the Spartans game to win or lose.
Alabama(-18) over Texas A&M (1*)
- - I don?t view this as a danger spot for undefeated Alabama to take to the road.
Texas(+3') over Oklahoma (1*)
- - Pretty much like Ohio State vs. Michigan, or Alabama vs. Auburn, or Notre Dame vs. USC, or Cal vs. Stanford, I will almost always take the time to cap this rivalry game, and make a wager, and post a play, even if I don?t happen to believe I am seeing any value, or when I won't even be able to watch the game. I have a decent but probably not great record with wagers in this rivalry, often times taking the points, and this year I really see little reason to believe Oklahoma will be ambushing Texas this week.
Ohio State(-21') over Maryland (1*)
- - One game too many, except I have had a good feel this year for most Big Ten teams.
GL
- - I went with Nebraska as a really, really strong play last week. Nothing so sure today, and all I expect this week is that the team with two conference losses has found something that will have them fighting and scratching just as hard as they have the last three weeks to earn a big conference win here as a live dog.
Iowa(-2) over Penn State (1*)
- - Both teams have been very good to me since Week #1. In a game that has truly been the most underrated rivalry in the Big Ten during the 23 year tenure of Pittsburgh native Kirk Ferentz, my take is that no matter what reasons I can offer up for playing Penn State in this game, I know more reasons for playing Iowa.
Wisconsin(-11) over Illinois (1*)
- - Maybe Wisconsin is garbage, or maybe they don?t care right now, but otherwise they could not have a much better spot to show otherwise.
Arkansas(+5) over Mississippi (1*)
- - The character and weapons I?ve seen from Arkansas this year appeal to me more than the favorite.
Michigan State(-4') over Rutgers (1*)
- - I heard it said about this game that it is a tough time in the season for undefeated teams to take to the road, and MSU is already over their 4.5 game win total for the season (although Rutgers with 3 wins might almost be at that level, too). Without any research by me to support the claim, I thought that sounded like an angle with merit. But I?ve been 2-0 with plays on Rutgers and 1-0 with a big play against Rutgers last week, and I don?t think Rutgers rolls to a huge win in this spot even with a superior effort, and this next leg in a brutal stretch looks very tough for an outcome that covers this small number. MSU had 7 turnovers in losing the season opener to Rutgers last year under new HC Mel Tucker, and Tucker seems the type to have a long memory for that shit show, making this very much the Spartans game to win or lose.
Alabama(-18) over Texas A&M (1*)
- - I don?t view this as a danger spot for undefeated Alabama to take to the road.
Texas(+3') over Oklahoma (1*)
- - Pretty much like Ohio State vs. Michigan, or Alabama vs. Auburn, or Notre Dame vs. USC, or Cal vs. Stanford, I will almost always take the time to cap this rivalry game, and make a wager, and post a play, even if I don?t happen to believe I am seeing any value, or when I won't even be able to watch the game. I have a decent but probably not great record with wagers in this rivalry, often times taking the points, and this year I really see little reason to believe Oklahoma will be ambushing Texas this week.
Ohio State(-21') over Maryland (1*)
- - One game too many, except I have had a good feel this year for most Big Ten teams.
GL
UConn(-3) over UMass (1*)
- - The talk I was hearing as much as any this week was that Michigan State(-4') over Rutgers was setting up as a public bloodbath, but it has not worked out that way. Last week, there was plenty of reluctance to play USC(-9) over Colorado because it was just too easy, but it was that easy. Now it is hard to believe, but it sort of looks to me like the gift from Vegas for a late afternoon get well game for the public is UConn as a road favorite. I really can't find anything to add on to my existing plays that I like even half as much, so it is the only late afternoon game I am adding.
GL
- - The talk I was hearing as much as any this week was that Michigan State(-4') over Rutgers was setting up as a public bloodbath, but it has not worked out that way. Last week, there was plenty of reluctance to play USC(-9) over Colorado because it was just too easy, but it was that easy. Now it is hard to believe, but it sort of looks to me like the gift from Vegas for a late afternoon get well game for the public is UConn as a road favorite. I really can't find anything to add on to my existing plays that I like even half as much, so it is the only late afternoon game I am adding.
GL
Nebraska(-4') over Minnesota (1.5*)
- - I love a hungry team. No research is required on my part to know there is not a hungrier veteran team in all the land.
Iowa(-11') over Purdue (1*)
- - No reason for me to bet against a surging Iowa team surging into their only game for two weeks.
Rutgers(-2') over Northwestern (1*)
- - I really like what Rutgers has shown this season, and had a strong belief in the wager I had on them at Michigan, but I had no hesitation wagering against their potential for sustained excellence in follow up games at home against Ohio State and Michigan State in the brutal Big Ten East . . . While recognizing a good thing happening at Rutgers, I am at mostly a loss to explain the collapse of Northwestern . . . While this game could go almost any direction in terms of which team is flat or inspired, it works for me as the spot to get back on the Rutgers train.
Florida(-12') over LSU (1*)
- - The LSU defense gets bullied in the trenches and misses assignments on the back end, and is missing at least five starters. High scoring Florida has a score to settle after "the shoe game" from last year, and any extra motivation is enough to convince me to go against the unsettled to reeling opponent.
Cincinnati(-21') over UCF (1*)
- - It?s Cinci, so of course the line is whatever and a hook. Nothing special for jumping on this game, but nothing special for staying away or playing the other side, so it is another auto play on Cinci to try to add to a 12-2-1 run with automatic plays on Cincinnati to cover ridiculous numbers.
Indiana(+3') over Michigan State (1*)
- - Indiana has already lined up against three teams that have been rated as high as #4 this season, and Michigan State has beaten exactly who? I have done well this season with wagers against Indiana and on Michigan State, but this looks like a dangerous Halloween approaching spot for an undefeated team to be on the road against a hungry if overrated oponent.
Tennessee(+1) over Mississippi (1*)
- - They used to play good defense in the SEC, maybe they will again.
Alabama(-17) over Mississippi State (1*)
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GL
- - I love a hungry team. No research is required on my part to know there is not a hungrier veteran team in all the land.
Iowa(-11') over Purdue (1*)
- - No reason for me to bet against a surging Iowa team surging into their only game for two weeks.
Rutgers(-2') over Northwestern (1*)
- - I really like what Rutgers has shown this season, and had a strong belief in the wager I had on them at Michigan, but I had no hesitation wagering against their potential for sustained excellence in follow up games at home against Ohio State and Michigan State in the brutal Big Ten East . . . While recognizing a good thing happening at Rutgers, I am at mostly a loss to explain the collapse of Northwestern . . . While this game could go almost any direction in terms of which team is flat or inspired, it works for me as the spot to get back on the Rutgers train.
Florida(-12') over LSU (1*)
- - The LSU defense gets bullied in the trenches and misses assignments on the back end, and is missing at least five starters. High scoring Florida has a score to settle after "the shoe game" from last year, and any extra motivation is enough to convince me to go against the unsettled to reeling opponent.
Cincinnati(-21') over UCF (1*)
- - It?s Cinci, so of course the line is whatever and a hook. Nothing special for jumping on this game, but nothing special for staying away or playing the other side, so it is another auto play on Cinci to try to add to a 12-2-1 run with automatic plays on Cincinnati to cover ridiculous numbers.
Indiana(+3') over Michigan State (1*)
- - Indiana has already lined up against three teams that have been rated as high as #4 this season, and Michigan State has beaten exactly who? I have done well this season with wagers against Indiana and on Michigan State, but this looks like a dangerous Halloween approaching spot for an undefeated team to be on the road against a hungry if overrated oponent.
Tennessee(+1) over Mississippi (1*)
- - They used to play good defense in the SEC, maybe they will again.
Alabama(-17) over Mississippi State (1*)
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GL
UCLA(+1') over Washington (1*)
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Iowa State(-6') over Kansas State (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+18') over Soputh Carolina (1*)
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Arizona State(+1) over Utah (1*)
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GL
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Iowa State(-6') over Kansas State (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+18') over Soputh Carolina (1*)
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Arizona State(+1) over Utah (1*)
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GL
NCAA YTD: 58-44 (+8.85*)
NFL YTD: 18-21 (-6.00*)
Cincinnati(-28') over Navy (1*)
- - The hook came.
Wake Forest(-3) over Army (1*)
- - Can?t say I?m loving the early card this week.
Purdue(+3') over Wisconsin (1*)
- - I was doing excellently on Big Ten games until an 0-4 donut last week, and only one of the plays was even close. Can?t say I?m loving the Big Ten card this week.
Kansas State(-1) over Texas Tech (1*)
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Kent State(-5) over Ohio (1*)
- - My belief that Kent State is a fairly decent MAC team will be proven wrong if they can?t handle a bad Ohio team.
GL
NFL YTD: 18-21 (-6.00*)
Cincinnati(-28') over Navy (1*)
- - The hook came.
Wake Forest(-3) over Army (1*)
- - Can?t say I?m loving the early card this week.
Purdue(+3') over Wisconsin (1*)
- - I was doing excellently on Big Ten games until an 0-4 donut last week, and only one of the plays was even close. Can?t say I?m loving the Big Ten card this week.
Kansas State(-1) over Texas Tech (1*)
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Kent State(-5) over Ohio (1*)
- - My belief that Kent State is a fairly decent MAC team will be proven wrong if they can?t handle a bad Ohio team.
GL
Iowa State(-7) over Oklahoma State (1*)
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Washington State(+4) over BYU (1*)
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Minnesota(-4) over Maryland (1*)
- - Maryland once again garnering a heck of a lot of respect this season.
UCLA(-1) over Oregon (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+20') over Mississippi State (1*)
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Tennessee(+25') over Alabama (1*)
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Pittsburgh(-3)(-125) over Clemson (1*)
- - I?m guessing the spread on this game before the season started was in the range of Clemson -13 to -16. I feel seriously crazy backing Pitt.
GL
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Washington State(+4) over BYU (1*)
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Minnesota(-4) over Maryland (1*)
- - Maryland once again garnering a heck of a lot of respect this season.
UCLA(-1) over Oregon (1*)
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Vanderbilt(+20') over Mississippi State (1*)
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Tennessee(+25') over Alabama (1*)
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Pittsburgh(-3)(-125) over Clemson (1*)
- - I?m guessing the spread on this game before the season started was in the range of Clemson -13 to -16. I feel seriously crazy backing Pitt.
GL
Ohio State(-21) over Indiana (1*)
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Texas A&M(-19') over South Carolina (1*)
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Notre Dame(-7') over USC (1*)
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GL
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Texas A&M(-19') over South Carolina (1*)
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Notre Dame(-7') over USC (1*)
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GL
NCAA YTD: 66-50 (+10.25*)
NFL YTD: 22-24 (-5.30*)
Iowa(+3) over Wisconsin (1*)
- - Iowa has been in charge of the West Division from Day 1, and the story here is they will play their asses off to stay there.
Penn State(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
- - If I?m looking for value, I say there is no way Ohio State covers this number 54% of the time. If I?m making predictions, I would say Penn State has real designs on winning this game.
Cincinnati(-27') over Tulane (1*)
- - Energy will be high and a very special Group of Five team will be very much on track.
Michigan(-4) over Michigan State (1*)
- - I won?t abandon my assessment of the season narratives that as between these teams, Michigan is the team that will have the right stuff in a spot exactly like this.
Notre Dame(-3)(-130) over North Carolina (1*)
- - I have had a very good read on Notre Dame this season (like 5-0 ATS good since an ATS loss in the Florida State opener), and I have been right that Indiana and North Carolina were likely to be much, much more overrated than an overrated Iowa State team, and I am sticking with a Top 20 team of altar boys in this one.
Indiana(+4) over Maryland (1*)
- - Maryland continues to garner a heck of a lot of respect this season, and very possibly a smidgen of it is justified back home against Indiana. The Hoosiers are a shell of what they expected this season, what a lot of folks other than me expected this season, and what they actually were at the start of the season, but whatever they have left to offer has to be on display here.
Kentucky(+1') over Mississippi State (1*)
- - I see a well coached, physical and scrappy team that is rested after playing tough against Georgia as a riled up dog that can carry my cash against a flashy and undisciplined opponent.
Illinois(+2) over Rutgers (1*)
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GL
NFL YTD: 22-24 (-5.30*)
Iowa(+3) over Wisconsin (1*)
- - Iowa has been in charge of the West Division from Day 1, and the story here is they will play their asses off to stay there.
Penn State(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
- - If I?m looking for value, I say there is no way Ohio State covers this number 54% of the time. If I?m making predictions, I would say Penn State has real designs on winning this game.
Cincinnati(-27') over Tulane (1*)
- - Energy will be high and a very special Group of Five team will be very much on track.
Michigan(-4) over Michigan State (1*)
- - I won?t abandon my assessment of the season narratives that as between these teams, Michigan is the team that will have the right stuff in a spot exactly like this.
Notre Dame(-3)(-130) over North Carolina (1*)
- - I have had a very good read on Notre Dame this season (like 5-0 ATS good since an ATS loss in the Florida State opener), and I have been right that Indiana and North Carolina were likely to be much, much more overrated than an overrated Iowa State team, and I am sticking with a Top 20 team of altar boys in this one.
Indiana(+4) over Maryland (1*)
- - Maryland continues to garner a heck of a lot of respect this season, and very possibly a smidgen of it is justified back home against Indiana. The Hoosiers are a shell of what they expected this season, what a lot of folks other than me expected this season, and what they actually were at the start of the season, but whatever they have left to offer has to be on display here.
Kentucky(+1') over Mississippi State (1*)
- - I see a well coached, physical and scrappy team that is rested after playing tough against Georgia as a riled up dog that can carry my cash against a flashy and undisciplined opponent.
Illinois(+2) over Rutgers (1*)
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GL
