First and Ten
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Penn State(-10) over Maryland (1*)
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Ohio State(-14') over Nebraska (1*)
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Baylor(-7) over TCU (1*)
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Michigan State(-3) over Purdue (1*)
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Iowa(-12) over Northwestern (1*)
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North Carolina(-2') over Wake Forest (1*)
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Cincinnati(-22') over Tulsa (1*)
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Pittsburgh(-21) over Duke (1*)
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Army(+3)(-125) over Air Force (1*)
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GL
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Ohio State(-14') over Nebraska (1*)
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Baylor(-7) over TCU (1*)
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Michigan State(-3) over Purdue (1*)
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Iowa(-12) over Northwestern (1*)
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North Carolina(-2') over Wake Forest (1*)
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Cincinnati(-22') over Tulsa (1*)
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Pittsburgh(-21) over Duke (1*)
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Army(+3)(-125) over Air Force (1*)
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GL
Navy(+21) over Notre Dame (1*)
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Wisconsin(-13') over Rutgers (1*)
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Iowa State(-6') over Texas (1*)
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Louisville(+3') over Clemson (1*)
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Oklahoma State(-3)(-130) over West Virginia (1*)
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South Carolina(+20') over Florida (1*)
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GL
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Wisconsin(-13') over Rutgers (1*)
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Iowa State(-6') over Texas (1*)
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Louisville(+3') over Clemson (1*)
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Oklahoma State(-3)(-130) over West Virginia (1*)
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South Carolina(+20') over Florida (1*)
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GL
NCAA YTD: 79-64 (+7.85*)
NFL YTD: 27-33 (-10.55*)
Indiana(-7) over Rutgers (1*)
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Syracuse(+3) over Louisville (1*)
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Kansas State(-6) over West Virginia (1*)
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Michigan(-2) over Penn State (1*)
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Auburn(-4') over Mississippi State (1*)
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Oklahoma(-5) over Baylor (1*)
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GL
NFL YTD: 27-33 (-10.55*)
Indiana(-7) over Rutgers (1*)
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Syracuse(+3) over Louisville (1*)
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Kansas State(-6) over West Virginia (1*)
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Michigan(-2) over Penn State (1*)
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Auburn(-4') over Mississippi State (1*)
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Oklahoma(-5) over Baylor (1*)
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GL
Tennessee(+19') over Georgia (1*)
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Michigan State(-11') over Maryland (1*)
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Iowa(-4) over Minnesota (1*)
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Boston College(-1) over Georgia Tech (1*)
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Missouri(+1') over South Carolina (1*)
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Purdue(+20) over Ohio State (1*)
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GL
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Michigan State(-11') over Maryland (1*)
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Iowa(-4) over Minnesota (1*)
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Boston College(-1) over Georgia Tech (1*)
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Missouri(+1') over South Carolina (1*)
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Purdue(+20) over Ohio State (1*)
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GL
Arkansas(-3) over LSU (1*)
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Oklahoma State(-11') over TCU (1*)
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Texas A&M/Mississippi (Ov57)
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Notre Dame(-7') over Virginia (1*)
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GL
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Oklahoma State(-11') over TCU (1*)
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Texas A&M/Mississippi (Ov57)
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Notre Dame(-7') over Virginia (1*)
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GL
San Diego State(-11) over UNLV (1*)
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Air Force(-1') over Nevada (1*)
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Washington State(-15) over Arizona (1*)
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Houston(-9') over Memphis (1*)
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GL
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Air Force(-1') over Nevada (1*)
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Washington State(-15) over Arizona (1*)
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Houston(-9') over Memphis (1*)
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GL
NCAA YTD: 90-72 (+10.05*)
NFL YTD: 31-37 (-11.30*)
Cincinnati(-10) over SMU (1*)
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Boston College(-2) over Florida State (1*)
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UCLA(-3)(-130) over USC (1*)
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Wake Forest(+4) over Clemson (1*)
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Minnesota(-7') over Indiana (1*)
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Baylor(+2) over Kansas State (1*)
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California(-2') over Stanford (1*)
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Auburn(-7') over South Carolina (1*)
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Iowa(-12') over Illinois (1*)
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Missouri(+9) over Florida (*)
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Rutgers(+18) over Penn State (1*)
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Nebraska(+10) over Wisconsin (1*)
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West Virginia(-2') over Texas (1*)
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Michigan State(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
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Notre Dame(-17') over Georgia Tech (1*)
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Oklahoma(-3) over Iowa State (1*)
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GL
NFL YTD: 31-37 (-11.30*)
Cincinnati(-10) over SMU (1*)
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Boston College(-2) over Florida State (1*)
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UCLA(-3)(-130) over USC (1*)
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Wake Forest(+4) over Clemson (1*)
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Minnesota(-7') over Indiana (1*)
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Baylor(+2) over Kansas State (1*)
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California(-2') over Stanford (1*)
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Auburn(-7') over South Carolina (1*)
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Iowa(-12') over Illinois (1*)
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Missouri(+9) over Florida (*)
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Rutgers(+18) over Penn State (1*)
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Nebraska(+10) over Wisconsin (1*)
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West Virginia(-2') over Texas (1*)
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Michigan State(+19') over Ohio State (1*)
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Notre Dame(-17') over Georgia Tech (1*)
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Oklahoma(-3) over Iowa State (1*)
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GL
Thanks for the post!! When you post a 2*...I will make it a rubber band play!
^ ^ ^ Cheers! :0008 Packers Rule! ^ ^ ^
I have had either 2 or 3 plays for 1.5* this year. I almost made Cincinnati a 1.5* play today. Now I will.
Iowa State(-')(+100)(2h) over Oklahoma (1*)
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Penn State(-6')(-115)(2h) over Rutgers (1*)
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Cincinnati(-10) over SMU (0.5*)
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GL
I have had either 2 or 3 plays for 1.5* this year. I almost made Cincinnati a 1.5* play today. Now I will.
Iowa State(-')(+100)(2h) over Oklahoma (1*)
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Penn State(-6')(-115)(2h) over Rutgers (1*)
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Cincinnati(-10) over SMU (0.5*)
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GL
NCAA YTD: 101-80 (+12.85*)
NFL YTD: 38-43 (-11.10*)
Iowa State(-15) over TCU (1.5*)
- - - - The most anticipated season in school history has been hugely disappointing for the Cyclones. I don't care what you might be thinking about TCU is playing for Bowl eligibility, Iowa State has nothing to play for, the students will be away on Thanksgiving break, yada, yada, yada. Iowa State outclasses TCU from the head coach on down, and while they won't be erecting any statues for the achievements of this exceptional senior class, Iowa State will be closing the season with a valedictory effort and performance.
Link: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...kolar-matt-campbell-big-12-season/8621736002/
Cincinnati(-14) over East Carolina (1.5*)
- - The finish line has just appeared as the Coach of the Year stumbles, I guess, on the light switch for Cinci regaining so much of their identity, and I won?t play it any differently, that for should.
Wisconsin(-7) over Minnesota (1*)
- - IMO the Wisconsin team I have been watching is playing too buttoned up to trip badly in this game.
Nebraska(+1) over Iowa (1*)
- - This play has been on my radar since whenever Nebraska and Iowa fairly solidly established their identities for 2021, and last week was just more of the same, although the Martinez injury does introduce something unexpected. I know that at the end of this season, after the end of last season and the end of the season before that, HC Scott Frost has gone from a hard on to a raging hard on over the push to beat Iowa and not lose again to Iowa, and the whole program is in lockstep with him on this one. I hope I?m wrong on how it plays out.
Washington State(-1)(-115) over Washington (1*)
- - In the decades I?ve been capping games, I believe it is extremely rare for a full team to be infused with a resolve of rallying for a huge chunk of their campaign after losing their coach, and the reason for the loss had nothing to do with the team sucking, and then at the end of that campaign the team is on the verge of accomplishing so freaking much. But simply put, when my first instinct is to play Wazzu, and then my research comes across a rich narrative I can really, really appreciate AND agree with like the posted link, I stop looking for a counter-narrative and trust my stuff enough to pull the trigger and move on to capping other games.
Link: https://apnews.com/article/coronavi...alth-seattle-a7e423bd105359bfaf26e0743c84ea83
Penn State(-2) over Michigan State (1*)
- - Mooch might say, ?Should be a close game, lots of fun.? My money is with Penn State being a formidable obstacle to end the campaign.
Kansas State(+3) over Texas (1*)
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Notre Dame(-20) over Stanford (1*)
- - I have had a very good read on Notre Dame this season (like 8-1 ATS good (wrong on Navy) since an ATS loss in the Florida State opener), and I am maybe going to the well once too often with a Top 10 team of altar boys in this one. Or maybe not once too often.
Saturday is looking a lot like adding Ilinois, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Purdue, Rutgers, California, BYU, SMU, and Florida State, with Michigan for spice, and Kentucky and Alabama maybe missing the cut.
GL
NFL YTD: 38-43 (-11.10*)
Iowa State(-15) over TCU (1.5*)
- - - - The most anticipated season in school history has been hugely disappointing for the Cyclones. I don't care what you might be thinking about TCU is playing for Bowl eligibility, Iowa State has nothing to play for, the students will be away on Thanksgiving break, yada, yada, yada. Iowa State outclasses TCU from the head coach on down, and while they won't be erecting any statues for the achievements of this exceptional senior class, Iowa State will be closing the season with a valedictory effort and performance.
Link: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...kolar-matt-campbell-big-12-season/8621736002/
Cincinnati(-14) over East Carolina (1.5*)
- - The finish line has just appeared as the Coach of the Year stumbles, I guess, on the light switch for Cinci regaining so much of their identity, and I won?t play it any differently, that for should.
Wisconsin(-7) over Minnesota (1*)
- - IMO the Wisconsin team I have been watching is playing too buttoned up to trip badly in this game.
Nebraska(+1) over Iowa (1*)
- - This play has been on my radar since whenever Nebraska and Iowa fairly solidly established their identities for 2021, and last week was just more of the same, although the Martinez injury does introduce something unexpected. I know that at the end of this season, after the end of last season and the end of the season before that, HC Scott Frost has gone from a hard on to a raging hard on over the push to beat Iowa and not lose again to Iowa, and the whole program is in lockstep with him on this one. I hope I?m wrong on how it plays out.
Washington State(-1)(-115) over Washington (1*)
- - In the decades I?ve been capping games, I believe it is extremely rare for a full team to be infused with a resolve of rallying for a huge chunk of their campaign after losing their coach, and the reason for the loss had nothing to do with the team sucking, and then at the end of that campaign the team is on the verge of accomplishing so freaking much. But simply put, when my first instinct is to play Wazzu, and then my research comes across a rich narrative I can really, really appreciate AND agree with like the posted link, I stop looking for a counter-narrative and trust my stuff enough to pull the trigger and move on to capping other games.
Link: https://apnews.com/article/coronavi...alth-seattle-a7e423bd105359bfaf26e0743c84ea83
Penn State(-2) over Michigan State (1*)
- - Mooch might say, ?Should be a close game, lots of fun.? My money is with Penn State being a formidable obstacle to end the campaign.
Kansas State(+3) over Texas (1*)
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Notre Dame(-20) over Stanford (1*)
- - I have had a very good read on Notre Dame this season (like 8-1 ATS good (wrong on Navy) since an ATS loss in the Florida State opener), and I am maybe going to the well once too often with a Top 10 team of altar boys in this one. Or maybe not once too often.
Saturday is looking a lot like adding Ilinois, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Purdue, Rutgers, California, BYU, SMU, and Florida State, with Michigan for spice, and Kentucky and Alabama maybe missing the cut.
GL
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Thanks, rocky mountain. :0008 :toast:
A very nice 6-3 (+3.70*) run in NFL and NCAA on Thursday and Friday, including my two biggest plays of the week, and loving an epic 4th quarter rally that gutted the Bugeaters and my wager on them, but brought nothing but joy to this Hawkeye fan . . . Saturday and Sunday look a lot dicier to my eyes, and just sticking with the 3 plays I have already posted for Saturday would likely be my best strategy for overall profit. But there is no fun in that, ESPECIALLY when looking at the final full slate of college football games for about another 9 months, and a final opportunity for tapping into all the insights accumulated while closely following the season to date. Lots of fun one more time, unless I really suck.
BYU(-7) over USC (1*)
- - https://athlonsports.com/college-football/byu-cougars-vs-usc-trojans-prediction-picks-2021
The article hits some of the high notes on my reasons for successfully fading USC down the stretch of this season, including this blast: ?Trojans are hanging on for dear life with half their coaching staff being completely disinterested in doing their job and the other half being completely in over their heads . . . a team that desperately needs to just start over under new leadership.? . . . Not a great formula for following the UCLA game and facing a pretty good regional Independent having a pretty good season that will look at this as a pretty big game.
Liberty(-3)(-130) over Army (1*)
- - I can?t find the stat again, but I believe both Army and Navy have fairly abysmal ATS records in the last game before the Army-Navy Game. Liberty has been slumping of late, but I see a proven commodity that offers value facing Army in this spot.
Rutgers(+1) over Maryland (1*)
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Oklahoma State(-4') over Oklahoma (1*)
- - I am a huge believer in the process of you do the little things right and win the day every day, and when the game comes, if a team has had an excellent week of preparation, some development in the early Baylor game would not change my capping to believe a team will gain or lose a big motivational edge when they take the field in a huge college rivalry game . . . While the teams are on comparable planes of achievement, I have repeatedly seen more and then more to like from Okie Lite than Oklahoma during a long campaign, including of late. What I don?t think I will ever like is HC Mike Gundy in any big game, ESPECIALLY when my wager requires him to win by more than a single point.
Florida State(+3) over Florida (1*)
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Michigan(-7') over Ohio State (1*)
- - I only rarely look at power rankings to see what they have to offer, and my mere ?guesses? for opening lines were Nebraska(-2'), Wisconsin(-9), and Ohio State(-12), so I was fairly surprised at -7'. I think this is a very good Michigan football team that matches up somewhat favorably with the strengths of the explosive Buckeyes, but of course I fear it is wishful thinking on my part that Michigan will step up with so much on the line, and then hang all game to boot, when Ohio State hits on an explosive formula.
GL
A very nice 6-3 (+3.70*) run in NFL and NCAA on Thursday and Friday, including my two biggest plays of the week, and loving an epic 4th quarter rally that gutted the Bugeaters and my wager on them, but brought nothing but joy to this Hawkeye fan . . . Saturday and Sunday look a lot dicier to my eyes, and just sticking with the 3 plays I have already posted for Saturday would likely be my best strategy for overall profit. But there is no fun in that, ESPECIALLY when looking at the final full slate of college football games for about another 9 months, and a final opportunity for tapping into all the insights accumulated while closely following the season to date. Lots of fun one more time, unless I really suck.
BYU(-7) over USC (1*)
- - https://athlonsports.com/college-football/byu-cougars-vs-usc-trojans-prediction-picks-2021
The article hits some of the high notes on my reasons for successfully fading USC down the stretch of this season, including this blast: ?Trojans are hanging on for dear life with half their coaching staff being completely disinterested in doing their job and the other half being completely in over their heads . . . a team that desperately needs to just start over under new leadership.? . . . Not a great formula for following the UCLA game and facing a pretty good regional Independent having a pretty good season that will look at this as a pretty big game.
Liberty(-3)(-130) over Army (1*)
- - I can?t find the stat again, but I believe both Army and Navy have fairly abysmal ATS records in the last game before the Army-Navy Game. Liberty has been slumping of late, but I see a proven commodity that offers value facing Army in this spot.
Rutgers(+1) over Maryland (1*)
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Oklahoma State(-4') over Oklahoma (1*)
- - I am a huge believer in the process of you do the little things right and win the day every day, and when the game comes, if a team has had an excellent week of preparation, some development in the early Baylor game would not change my capping to believe a team will gain or lose a big motivational edge when they take the field in a huge college rivalry game . . . While the teams are on comparable planes of achievement, I have repeatedly seen more and then more to like from Okie Lite than Oklahoma during a long campaign, including of late. What I don?t think I will ever like is HC Mike Gundy in any big game, ESPECIALLY when my wager requires him to win by more than a single point.
Florida State(+3) over Florida (1*)
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Michigan(-7') over Ohio State (1*)
- - I only rarely look at power rankings to see what they have to offer, and my mere ?guesses? for opening lines were Nebraska(-2'), Wisconsin(-9), and Ohio State(-12), so I was fairly surprised at -7'. I think this is a very good Michigan football team that matches up somewhat favorably with the strengths of the explosive Buckeyes, but of course I fear it is wishful thinking on my part that Michigan will step up with so much on the line, and then hang all game to boot, when Ohio State hits on an explosive formula.
GL
Always good information to hang your hat on, win or lose. I enjoy the write-ups, stay hot!
Purdue(-15) over Indiana (1*)
- - The Hoosiers' physical and emotional well is empty after one of the most disappointing campaigns in NCAA history, with a vastly overrated rah-rah coach in over his head. Purdue definitely has an underrated coach and a very underrated team that will win matchups all over the field in this one.
Illinois(-7) over Northwestern (1*)
- - HC Bielema and all his super seniors seem sufficiently charged up to merit a definite play.
At this point my 2:30 window is only four Big Ten games, except I'm going to throw down some more. :wall:
GL
- - The Hoosiers' physical and emotional well is empty after one of the most disappointing campaigns in NCAA history, with a vastly overrated rah-rah coach in over his head. Purdue definitely has an underrated coach and a very underrated team that will win matchups all over the field in this one.
Illinois(-7) over Northwestern (1*)
- - HC Bielema and all his super seniors seem sufficiently charged up to merit a definite play.
At this point my 2:30 window is only four Big Ten games, except I'm going to throw down some more. :wall:
GL
