Gambling for a living?

[NySportsfan]

Nick, thanks for the thoughts....I agree 1000% on the college stuff, it really isnt for everyone......and the thing is, half the crap you do there is useless, and its mainly for people who want to work for someone else, even if you do make good money sometime down the line......still, working for yourself is priceless, even though you put in very long hrs and it can be very hard.Apparently people agree with me, because if only 25% graduate from 4 yr schools, then wheres the other 75%??? yes, most of them become drug dealers, or stiffs who work at delis or pump gas, but u cant tell me all 75% do that????? many, like thegibbs mentioned earlier, work their way up through connections, and/or open up their own thing.I believe, I know a lot of ppl, one that got a 1500 sat who didnt even finish hs, which is inexcusable, but his dad was doing well something w/pharmaceuticals(sp?), and hell carve out a living because hes smart..connections, and worth more than the degree, I, as well as many other ppl that are against school, and/or didnt graduate and are sucessfull, school simply doesnt teach you everything you need to do, and its not cut out for everyone, as evidenced by those stats....Further, the point about car loans is a problem for me, and other pp...if i did become a prof gambler, do I lie on a car loan and put something else, if so what??? how do u show pay stubs, etc etc, theres many problems......Plus, when your talking to ppl who work for a company etc and they say whats ur living, and u say prof gambler,lol if your comfortable with it more power to you though......to each is his own, Gambling isnt considered moral by the "people", but its a legitimate practice, its investing in sports, just as ppl invest in stocks, problem is the stigma....with the tax stuff involved, as well as the financial things about loans, mortgages etc Id need to find very good help with this aspect..you cant tell me though that no prof gamblers have car loans, they must find a way around it.....plus hafta pay your own ins, its a difficult living, but one with many perks, tax wise and other, ie days off when need etc, but theres many gray areas which need to be adressed, as well as the mebtal grind of studying games and watching them day in and day out....thx for the thoights, im tired of typing for the moment, pls respond

Mike

 

[Nick Douglas]

By moral code I didn't necessarily mean what people view as moral, more that if you follow any type of religion it would tell you that gambling isn't a wholesome activity and making it your life's work therefore may not be a very rewarding experience.

I personally don't think that the comparisons to investment banking are accurate. Investing is a positive long term proposition while gambling is a negative one. The stock market has always gone up when looking at a period of 20, 30 or 40 years while sports gamblers lose between 1.5% and 8% of every dollar wagered depending on the sport according to 1998 numbers published in Gaming Today (that is the most recent study I have read, if anyone knows of a more recent one, feel free to post it).

In addition, I would argue that the percentage of investors who earn their living solely off their own investments is quite small and I would also argue that they share some of the same troubles pro gamblers would in getting loans and things of that nature. The fact that they pay taxes alleviates many of those problems, but, hey, any gambler can just report all their earnings for the year and pay taxes on them if they'd like and then I am damn sure that getting loans and mortgages would be far easier.

Ace High Straight made a good point too that, on average, folks with college degrees will make a hell of a lot more money than folks that don't. It is more a matter of conjecture whether that makes them happier or better people, but they do make more money.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Nick,

What is someone had a long term record of returning say, 3% of every dollar wagered. Would that make the comparisons to investment banking accurate?

 

[Nick Douglas]

No.

You are looking at a single person. A person willing to sell you a house or give you a loan has to look at the macro view, not the micro view.

If you assume the house takes in 4.5% on average (that would be the mathematical equivalent of a 20 cent line overall), then a person hitting 3% is beating the standard by 7.5%. A comparable investor in a stock market that averages, say, 10% gains per year like the American stock market has over time would be gaining 17.5% per year if they were beating the game by the same percentage. No matter what way you look at it investing is a better bet on the wide view than gambling on sports.

Of course the reason why sports gambling is more attractive in many cases is that so many people understand and know more about sports than about major corporations.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Oh, well I was thinking more along the lines of principles i.e. that the principles involved of investing in sports betting are almost the same as in the finacial markets but it looks like we agree on this point.

But I think you are making a mistake in your thinking here. I really don't care what juice the bookmaker is charging on the other side of my wager as long as I am happy with my rate of return. A 3% return is the same to me whether I am betting into 20-cent lines or 40-cent lines. If I do it against 40-cent lines all it means is that the bookmaker is less skilled but that doesn't affect my bottom line. I think your comparison would be valid if you were picking your teams or stocks randomly but of course that is not the case. What you should be comparing your investment to is the next best investment that is available to you.

Also, very interestingly, you've made an error that I encounter so often when discussing my handicapping and I'm glad it came up on the forum. You've compared the rates at which we make our bets on a daily basis with what investors make in the stock market on an annual basis!! Translate the (I'm throwing this number out) 2% return you get on your bet which is returned to you 24 hours later into a compounded annual rate and only then are you making a fair comparison. (Of course we do not put our entire bankroll into this daily rate, only a portion of it, but if you do the math it still comes out to a tremendous advantage for sports handicapping)

 

[Nick Douglas]

I was just applying the rate to what you said. You said 3% of every dollar wagered. I said that would be akin to 17.5% (or whatever percent is 7.5% above the average) in return per year. Both comparisons up the percentage by 7.5%, they just do it over different time frames.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

I understand that, but it's important not to just gloss over this because it's the fundamental difference which turns sports handicapping into a far superior investment when you are comparing rate of returns like this.

Say you play an average of 3 games a day and put 2% of your bankroll on each play. Over the course of 1 year that means you are turning over your original bankroll 3*0.02*365=22 times (more than this actually since as you grow your bankroll your unit bet will increase as well). If you were betting with bookmakers that graded your wagers 1 year later instead of 1 day later the most you would be able to put into action is 1 times your original investment.

For someone who is returning 3% on his action this is the difference between a 3% return on his investment and a 22*3%=66% return (over the course of 1 year). It's absolutely huge.

 

[kycapper]

I would like to go on record here as disagreeing completely with your assessment of the value (or perceived lack of value) of a college education. Sure many of the courses you must complete, even in your chosen major, are very theoretical and difficult to apply in your career, but there are many life lessons to learn while in college. The sheer discipline it takes to commit to earning a degree will help you through many difficult things in life. Another thing you are missing is the "off the field" lessons you receive from your teachers. There are many professional people at a higher learning institution that share aspects of their personal experiences with students that will help you. Life shapes you. You are a product of your experiences, and the choices you make are based on those experiences. I am not sure who or what has molded you into what you are at this juncture of your life, but surely there are people who are close to you that can attest to some of the valuable experiences they had while in college. Finally, don't discount the socialization skills to be learned through college. I am not referring to those derived at keg parties or bars either. Some of the relationships that you can develop will be lifelong. Learning how to negotiate, learning diversity, learning how to communicate with others, and most importantly taking the time to learn about yourself are some of the things you will miss. I can't imagine wanting to hole yourself up and study statistics about sports for 12 hours or more a day. That does not exactly leave alot of time for personal growth and reflection. Why would you want to isolate yourself in that manner at this age? Listen to fletcher. The tolls that this lifestyle will take on your personal life and the pressures that it presents are not that glamorous. I was wildly successful at gambling when I was in college. I had a couple of college basketball seasons that enabled me to quit working while I was in school and really live like a king. It is not something, I learned, that is guaranteed to continue. I hope you make good decisions in your life. The people here have volumes of experience that they have shared with you. Only you have the power to decide what is best for you. Good Luck.

 

[NySportsfan]

Thx for the good post kycapper....I agree wiith most of what you said, but still against more schooling,lol, just think Ive had enough, but I could be wrong.your right about the experiences though, I mean, I already have some minority friends, know how to deal with diversity and talk to people, but those are important things to be able to do in life.....Yes, my folks said valuable experiences there, they went to SUNY oneonta, not an overly good school, but got degrees...Ive just got more and more disenchanted with high school, but I know college is different.....Your right re:handicapping, its not fukin guranteed....Of course, and you work hard....I cant say your 12 hrs a day is close to accurate, you can put in less hrs, albeit more quality ones with a lot of coffee, and do them in the early morning, so not to interrupt your social life, etc....but yes, youd hafta somewhat isolate yourself sometimes, as well as when you lose, because you will have losing days, and probably have a bad mood, etc which can hurt you..ya know, for me its a really tough call. I feel I owe it to myself to try it for a year might go to community college at the same time to get some credits under my belt, and if the plan sinks, then may hafta ake a step back and re-consider, but If I can study daily baseball games, say like 8-11am most days, maybe 7-11am, which is a lot of time, and take a few days off here and there on slow days or bad cards, youd have your work done by mid day, and decide on your plays later, of course though you need time to input all the daily stats etc into spreadsheet, which is boring....This is tough though during basketball which is busy, and hundreds of games flying at once, need to pick your strengths....again difficult choice to go in life, I appreciate your support though in what i do, still havent made anything final, thx to all keep the thread goin

Mike

 

[wondo]

The biggest thing in my opinion about college and why it's important is that it shows that you're able to undertake a task, stick to it, and complete it. College is a big undertaking, no matter what you feel you really gain in class, and by completing it, it is a good measuring stick on one's committment level.

Depending on what one wants to do later, it could also be an absolute requirement, i.e. coaching college athletics.

Same as being married, it looks like you are able to handle true responsibility, and this works well with various jobs you might apply for later.

Also the socialization in college is huge, but it depends on the person. I know a lot of older (in comparison to me) guys that never went to college and are huge successes financially (multi multi millionaires) but they can't function outside of the world they work. They went straight into the industry out of high school and know no other lifestyle. When some of these guys retire, it makes it damn near impossible to live -- the social aspects of their life. Some may have gotten actual college degress along the lines, but missed the very formative years of being away at college.

But at the same time, college isn't for everyone right away. I try to make a living by keeping people from going to college.... well, not exactly, do make arguments against college often.

 

[Heater]

My .02

My .02

Don't miss college - too many pretty girls and good times. You may meet people in school that will influence your life forever, in a positive way I'd hope.

Look at it this way - a bankroll can go away, but your degree is forever.

Gambling as a pro is, in many ways, far more taxing than a regular job because the light is on (or should be) 24 hours a day.

You leave work, work stays behind - for the most part anyway. Not so with pro betting!

Sitting at an evening meal with a lady would be a welcome break after work. If you gamble full-time, you often focus on what the scores are in the games you played. How relaxing is that? Not very.

If you get a job at 40k out of school and can make 10K, 20K betting you have the best of both worlds.

Now how many pro gamblers have a 401K plan? When they hit the skids brother, it's very rough.

Get a degree - have a Plan B!

 

[Valuist]

If you do get a degree and go on to get a regular job, by all means don't mention the fact that you like to invest in the sporting world. About 12 years ago, a co-worker was talking about the Kentucky Derby and I mentioned the fact I thought Unbridled would win. The horse won at around 10-1. Unfortunately, word got out that I gave out the horse. Not too long after that, I missed out on a promotion I should've gotten. I'm convinced that the fact they knew I gambled cost me. We live in a society in which many people are prejudiced against those who gamble. I never mention it where I work now. It sounds obvious but you'd be amazed at how easy it is to get drawn into a football or baseball conversation w/co-workers.

 

[NySportsfan]

Good point Valuist....You know, There is a stigma attached to gambling, which is a shame, because it essentially is the same as investing in the stock market...But as soon as your talking sports, and you mention a pointspread, a horse, a pick in a football game you like, your labeled as a gambler, and its like theres something wrong with that and you have a problem...Its like your a degenerate because your betting on a little known colllege football game, but when in actuality, your betting on it because you think you have a positive edge in the game and want to make money!.I will never understand this stigma, but it will never go away..If i were to go into gambling full time, Id have to either lie to some people and tell them i did something else, which would be not right, or come clean and take the comments from people, and questions, like how do u do it, etc etc, then hafta answer who do you like today questions, and questions about sports, etc etc..Which gets annoying..It certainly is untraditional and not easy, but if you play enough games, and can maintain your 55+% which isnt easy, and manage your bankroll, and you enjoy handicapping sports a lot......It can be fun, and rewarding, albeit tons of work, you wont have a boss to answer to every day, nor tradtiional work hours..as for the 401k plan, insurance, thats an entirely different issue..thanks for the good posts though, keep em coming, appreciate it, this is a good thread
Mike

 

[detox]

backer

backer

Nysportsfan why dont you do what some of the poker players do find yourself a backer?

 

[NySportsfan]

detox, thats a great idea. I will pose it here but the problem is, dont know if I can find anyone. I will gladly speak to someone and answer any questions they have about my handicapping knowledge, sports knowledge etc, I just will need a loan to get started of course, as all businesses do. do you have any suggestions on how to go about finding a backer? How can I prove to them I have the talent and ability? banks wont lend me anything, I really strongly believe I can do this, just need a backer like you said. Pls reply to this if u can, just dont know how to go about finding one, not gonna be for tremendous amount of money it takes to star a huge business anyway, gamblers work for themselves, probably need upwards of 10k to fund the bank, then your on your way. I appreciate a response detox if you know of the best way to go about this and to market myself etc, am quite a trustworthy person have many people to vouch for me, and the $$ would be paid back its not even a question, thanks for the reply, suggestions are welcome of course

Mike

 

[detox]

Nysportsfan what do you consider your best sport to cap?
What is your current bankroll?
I have in the past with some succes bankrolled some poker players and I might be interested in a partnership basis.

 

[NySportsfan]

Detox, I will rank em in order of what I am best at. Although, I am pretty well versed in all sports, except hockey

1) college football
2)NBA
3)College basketball
4)MLB
5)NFL (dont like it a lot, but know about it)

The way I look at it is this. college football although Im best, I can come up with like 10-13 plays on a saturday with totals, and usually do well, but overrall wont make up a ton of my overrall action. Im a winning hoops guy, good at totals etc, pretty well versed on all sports really and lines, can grind out an MLB profit too, just not great at nfl only plays totals and sides occasionally, and only NHL I play is coattailing good cappers once in a blue moon. I bet golf too at times. Bankroll now about $5,000. I think we should discuss a partnership could be mutually beneficial. I am online now, drop me an Instant message, Knickx2000 is the name, if your on. Or else reply on here, and we can speak more about it, looking forward to hopefully discussing a partnership. Ill be glad to answer any other questions you may have

Michael

 

[Innavation]

First off--i would say that at age 18---i believe it is impossible to be successful as a professional gambler. Although i regonize that we are different individuals..i can tell you when i was 18 i was just like you, but made many mistakes---chasing money----betting on Tv games for action. etc..etc... I went to college for 5 years played basketball.. Knocked out my campus bookie when i was a freshman...Ran basketball pools---played poker--craps almost every night--when we were not looking for women and drinking. I am 25 and have been doing this for 3 years now with no work.. I play poker also--lived in AC last year with family--back and forth now from there and where i live. I believe the most important component to being successful is thinking out every descionsand more importantly make good business descions. Everyday you will be faced with descions, and it must be the best interest of your buisness---and not anything else.(EX. An early TV game you want action on)----.. Second--I would say souround yourself with people that have experience and Knowledge in this buisness. I know many poker players---and 2 professional gamblers---1 horse handicapper---and they are good.---they win---but they do it right...They(like myself) watch lines and track the way they move... I have new 2.5 years of data on line movement--that i have been documenting every day----and have new theories developing on why they are moving and when---and what it means..---I spend at least 40 hrs on the computer a week..not to mention shopping around at local bookie shops(I have 8 places i can walk into--look at a board--lay money down and collect the next day)-----These places are not always sharp--and can be taken advantage of.....If you can create middle oppurtunities for yourself---than do it----it takes the gamble out of it--The part you probaly love!--- i know gambling is fun--but remember it is a business. I come to a point where i have a good idea what lines will move before they do and i will lay a favorite--and then the line moves--and will play the dog---creating the middle.----I can tell you that 2 years ago--i could not do any of this---would not even think along those lines....But even if you can be smart----and have good plays---what happens when you hit a losing streak.... There is a saying in Poker----that applies to Sports Gambling----Everyone is good when they are losing but---what determines how good you are is when you are losing-----1.---do not lose focus.
2.---do not chase
3. stay patient.
I know i'm rambling but i just wanted to give you my story--because this is what i will be doing for the rest of my life. People that know me--know this is what i do---and new oppurtunities pop up for me--because they want advice--or there is an angle on a book...But know when this happens judge of character is very important---There are some snakes in this buisness--So pick the people you deal with carefully if you get into this. I have been telling people that i would be doing this since i was 17. ANd everyone said i was crazy----It is very tough--Once in while i will make bad descions--and have a breakdown----but overall you must stat mentally tough--and learn from a mistake--and recover from it.========I could type for days on this subject---because this is what i do and what i love----My final advice is to go to College----and do this on the side, because "control" is what99% of the people do not have---and the 1 % that has it along with the gift to reconize patterns.. --Finally be smart--know your strengths and weaknesses, make good business descions--sorround yourself with knowlegeable people---and opinions...

 

[NySportsfan]

Ill tell ya, you are definitwly where I want to be when I am 25, I envy you being able to do what you love for a living at a pretty young age, you can probably give me a lot of help and insights. Your right about the decison part, every day you wager your forced to make judgement calls, sometimes youll second guess yourself, pass on winners, bet losers, etc, it happens. This is a mentally tough job, the hardest part no doubt is keeping good mental health and a good mind every day and realizing its a business as you said. I have chased, etc, think its all behind me have learned the hard way lost few k to local guys chased, got in trouble a few yrs ago, just bad stuff, now everything off shore i do, bt want to get to vegas at some point. The network goes without saying, I guess you could meet pros at sportsbooks hanging out but they tend to keep themselves isolated, and theres not tons of pros in the world b/c of the nature of this business and the mental strength and knowledge of the games it takes to win. The middling aspect is something I have thought of. Intertops off shore sportsbook used to round to nearest dollar, which set up middles, but they dont anymore. Im curious to see exactly how you track the lines so I could start doing someting similar maybe if you could start me off
The second part, I constantly hear crap from parents, parents friends, some of my friends, saying you cant win, your stupid etc etc, and the general stigma around gambling. I assume everyone you know doesnt have a problem with it, or you just ignore em, which is what I would do. The important thing in life is doing what you enjoy, and being successful at it of course. Yes its rare someone my age, 18-19, to know I want to do this, just as you at 17 knew, rare indeed. Overrall its a tough business, need to really do your homework, but I believe it can be done Ive researched it, read about prof gamblers and the like main thing is just discipline. Dont know what you make a year and what you do about tax stuff but thats another issue, assume you do alright or you would do another job that could pay bills. Appreciate the insights and hopefully Ill speak to you down the road, other comments appreciated by everyone on here

Mike

 

[MadJack]

how's the gambling career going, mike :shrug: