home favs w/ revenge
- Thread starter loophole
- Start date
This year chopping seems to be the norm for our home fav trend, which posts another 1-1 night and moves to 10-11 overall. If anyone's still interested, there are three plays tonight:
Texas - 6
Georgetown -7
Oregon -6
S. Alabama was a play until it moved to a pick so keep an eye out there.
Glta
Texas - 6
Georgetown -7
Oregon -6
S. Alabama was a play until it moved to a pick so keep an eye out there.
Glta
especially with the 2nd half of conference play heating up. The best plays should be coming right about now and moving forward.
Trend plays crater to 0-3 last night, dipping season tally to 10-14. For the undaunted, the good news (or bad news) is six plays come up tonight for those with deep bankrolls:
Ark lr -2
Stanford -7
Smu -6
San fran -4
Cal -5
W car -8
Yes shadows, fcp, I also still believe this trend will show a profit this season as in the past, although this is the first year that ive played all games from the beginning of the rematches. But historically, mid to late february is prime time for these plays. I had a pretty good football season (although I too was raped by pete carroll in the super bowl) so my bankroll can stand to keep playing a unit on these games. Caveat emptor to all others.
Ark lr -2
Stanford -7
Smu -6
San fran -4
Cal -5
W car -8
Yes shadows, fcp, I also still believe this trend will show a profit this season as in the past, although this is the first year that ive played all games from the beginning of the rematches. But historically, mid to late february is prime time for these plays. I had a pretty good football season (although I too was raped by pete carroll in the super bowl) so my bankroll can stand to keep playing a unit on these games. Caveat emptor to all others.
Last edited:
Here's a couple of bonus (I use the term loosely) revenge plays - just because I like them:
E tenn st +1-
Holy cross +1
These do not fit the trend we're tracking and won't be graded in the running tally
Glta
E tenn st +1-
Holy cross +1
These do not fit the trend we're tracking and won't be graded in the running tally
Glta
a reminder that if e tenn st stays at -1 or more it will become our seventh trend play of the evening and be graded accordingly.
Home favs trend hits the bottom with a second consecutive doughnut night, this time a punitive 0-7 where six of fhe seven revenge seeking favorites lose outright. That makes 0 for 10 for tbe last two nights and drops the overall record to 10-21, or a shocking 32% win rate over 31 games. My bankroll is pretty secure and can take such a hit, but after awhile this starts to feel like slamming your pecker in a door over and over so it will feel good when you stop. Thankfully, no plays on tonight's slate so we get a short recovery time for the swelling to go down.
I'm just a MAC alum and certainly do not follow any conferences out of the mid -west as much as I do close to home. It seems to me though that outside of Ky that there is more parity in hoops as there has ever been. I know that in the MAC the difference from top to bottom isn't as much as the standings may suggest. Most of the chalks are still winning but not getting over the number nearly as much. Just maybe some of this parity is taking a toll on some of these chalks.
Still think the best stuff is coming when conf play gets down to crunch time for seedings.
I know I'll still keep an eye on it but may just pick and choose the games that I would be leaning towards just from capping numbers. If those games show up on your system, all the better.
Good Luck
LOOP,
i saw your thread and it got me interested.
i tried to break it down further to see if it would show stronger in certain situations.
i looked at off a win vs off loss?..winning team/losing team?..pt. differential?..off./def. fg%
home/away?.schedule strength?..rebounding?.spread margins..etc. etc?.etc?..
i wish for our benefit, i could find something to make us money?.
but found nothing?..
it got me thinking?..i looked at the reverse side of this??.play on the road team seeking revenge of a same season home loss??.im thinking, we could catch the team in a letdown spot?.natural human reaction is to take this team for granted, as they already beat them on their floor, so it should be a cake walk on their own floor?..
currently, trying to break this down?.if i see something worthwhile, ill let you know.
gluck
burgh..
i saw your thread and it got me interested.
i tried to break it down further to see if it would show stronger in certain situations.
i looked at off a win vs off loss?..winning team/losing team?..pt. differential?..off./def. fg%
home/away?.schedule strength?..rebounding?.spread margins..etc. etc?.etc?..
i wish for our benefit, i could find something to make us money?.
but found nothing?..
it got me thinking?..i looked at the reverse side of this??.play on the road team seeking revenge of a same season home loss??.im thinking, we could catch the team in a letdown spot?.natural human reaction is to take this team for granted, as they already beat them on their floor, so it should be a cake walk on their own floor?..
currently, trying to break this down?.if i see something worthwhile, ill let you know.
gluck
burgh..
fcp, scs - thanks guys would appreciate you input on any tweaking that you might discover. tend to agree that the trend usually produces the best from mid to late February. been using this for three or four years with pretty good success. never tracked it all the way through the season, but what I did track was successful. never seen anything like 10 consecutive losses. time permitting i'll keep the thread going so we can see how it plays out.
today will more than likely be a watershed day for our trend as it produces no less than 16 plays for any steel-willed true believers who may have the fortitude (and bankroll) to play them all. for me, I will likely play the first half-dozen and then reinvest any winnings they produce. I did tinker around and generate a three team subset of teams that lost but covered the first matchup. I indicated those teams with stars (*) below. without further ado:
ga tech -5-
st john -6-
xav -7-
duke -9
villanova-9-
towson st -3
minny -6
va tech -1
loy ill -2
*coc -3-
*ark-lr -1
ohio -1
cs-ful-3
n dak st-8
den-7
*ipfw-2
there they are - proceed with caution madjackers.
glta
ga tech -5-
st john -6-
xav -7-
duke -9
villanova-9-
towson st -3
minny -6
va tech -1
loy ill -2
*coc -3-
*ark-lr -1
ohio -1
cs-ful-3
n dak st-8
den-7
*ipfw-2
there they are - proceed with caution madjackers.
glta
Okay, Steve, I guess I'm going to go ahead and jump on board starting today.
One thing for sure is, I certainly can't jinx the system to do worse than the last 10 games. :0008
Let's get this thing rolling.
BTW, you are the 27th person to register for this forum. The only active members that have a lower number than you are me, IE and marine.
We should try to hookup again one day like old times. :toast:
One thing for sure is, I certainly can't jinx the system to do worse than the last 10 games. :0008
Let's get this thing rolling.
BTW, you are the 27th person to register for this forum. The only active members that have a lower number than you are me, IE and marine.
We should try to hookup again one day like old times. :toast:
"tienes cajones" my friend. but I still believe the trend will recover. someone with more time than me should tweak it by covers, winning/losing team records, or whatever. from past experience, I believe there's something there worthwhile to discover.
I feel privileged to have the fourth oldest active member number, that's pretty cool company. I would probably be willing to travel anywhere on the continent for a geriatric degenerate reunion like that. I have some time now and a new wife to embarrass. just say when.
I feel privileged to have the fourth oldest active member number, that's pretty cool company. I would probably be willing to travel anywhere on the continent for a geriatric degenerate reunion like that. I have some time now and a new wife to embarrass. just say when.
Let's try to pull that off this year then.
I'll be in touch if I get some ideas and I'm sure I will. :toast:
Very cool. And btw, occasionally I still spot Cow tracks around the forum. See if you can get up with that fcker and get him to attend. Offer him a scholarship if necessary.
I can't get him with the email I have for him and it's a damn shame, I haven't talked to him for quite a few years. 10 years maybe?
A little housekeeping - loy ill should be loyola chicago and they are currently -3. Also va tech is +1and will come off the graded list if they go off as a dog.
All we needed was jack's mojo to turn our trend around as it recovers for a respectable 10-5 showing on saturday ( va tech closes as a dog so i didnt grade it as a loss). Season tally now stands at 20-26. Sunday produces a more manageable three plays:
Valpo -8
Ore st -2-
Bucknell -5-
Glta
Valpo -8
Ore st -2-
Bucknell -5-
Glta
