NBA FRI 032709 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
going to test my luck and try the same play i did 2 nights ago
Cleveland 1Q
Cleveland leads the league in 1Q pts by a margin of +4.4 while Min is like 5th last at -1.6
the 1q line for cle is -4.5
cleveland loves to get out to a huge lead in the first quarter and dictate the pace of the game
If anyone recalls their last game vs NJ, cle came out with like a 9pt 1q lead (1q line was -4 cle and nj is a better 1q team then min)
gonna test my luck and try this again
also for anyone thinking that cle dominates the 1h or 1q and 2q be careful. Cle tanked the 2q against nj and slowly let nj back into the game in the 2h which gave nj the back door cover
i think the safest play is cle 1q rather then 1h
BOLTA if u tail
Cleveland 1Q
Cleveland leads the league in 1Q pts by a margin of +4.4 while Min is like 5th last at -1.6
the 1q line for cle is -4.5
cleveland loves to get out to a huge lead in the first quarter and dictate the pace of the game
If anyone recalls their last game vs NJ, cle came out with like a 9pt 1q lead (1q line was -4 cle and nj is a better 1q team then min)
gonna test my luck and try this again
also for anyone thinking that cle dominates the 1h or 1q and 2q be careful. Cle tanked the 2q against nj and slowly let nj back into the game in the 2h which gave nj the back door cover
i think the safest play is cle 1q rather then 1h
BOLTA if u tail
Joe, I don't know if you're using sportsdatabase but if you ever run into this problem again...try killercappers
- Mar 18, 2009
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I know you've done this b4 Slicer - but cud you explain your 'take' on the Accuscores for both Col and Pro. For instance, we know from following Ax - u look for a # that falls nicely into a 3 pos. variance and then go deeper. Ex: all these col scores that u put w/ accuscore interactive look very close. How do you use/interpret them?
Actually eyeballing this one big time. I can't see them scoring 90 at all. Liking this play more and more. Potential POD for me.
This is what scares me about this SAS game. They could very well light it up at home on a Friday night.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Slicer
Checked out your spreadsheet -- looks like Accuscore has been no better at predicting than throwing darts - for NCAA at least.
Tracking any of their NBA performance?
I'm leaning TOR on this one...hate to play TOR but may be a good spot for them. I do see the trend but I have to break down the numbers here...
- Mar 18, 2009
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AX,
How much/if any does 'this time of the season' sway or not, the stats reliability: w/re: to what the commentators on TNT r always jokin abt ( teams having given up/how they're out there on the court thinkin abt their trip to Fiji in a few weeks, etc.)?
How much/if any does 'this time of the season' sway or not, the stats reliability: w/re: to what the commentators on TNT r always jokin abt ( teams having given up/how they're out there on the court thinkin abt their trip to Fiji in a few weeks, etc.)?
Someone here told me that the Tigers will be coming out of this bracket but it wasn't going to be MEM...:hail :hail :hail :hail :hail
Good call sir BOL
I have a 194 for OKC/TOR but I'm looking at other factors like their H/A numbers
NOH/NYK a bit tight for my taste. capped this @204
- Apr 7, 2008
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:mj06:
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Missouri wins it all this year.. Alot of money to be made on this Mizzou team, they are very undervalued. gl tonight Ax
I usually don't play 1Q but I love this on a Friday night at home for the Cavs. Wouldn't be a complete shock if they were up DD in 1Q
KB, less and less reliance on Stats this part of the season...I believe this is where the situation capper has the best advantage. I'm doing more reading now on the mood, gameflow of recent games, playoff positioning, resting of key players and such. I hate this part because this is my weakest as a capper. I like to read ETZ's and other situational capper's commentary about the games. There are still the trending in situations that i keep a close eye on.
at second glance i am getting close to the number but the line is rather high for a memph team that has been consistently scoring in the 80's recently. due for a breakout performance. no better place to put up BIG numbers than Arco. thoughts?
That was you MLB??? nice man! I don't forget bits of info like that. I got to catch some of that game and was thinking the whole time about what you said. Man, I am humbled sir. BOL as always
