NBA FRI 032709 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[jim844]

ETZ: re: Mil/Orl

I actually would lean mil this game esp after their loss to the raptors they are prob looking to bounce back.
They are only a half game away from charlotte which means these two have a viable chance at the 8th seed
i agree this should be a steamrolling game for orl as they are trying to lock up the 2nd seed but i don't know if they will cover the big spread.
if i were to play this game i'd be tempted to take the over as orl lives and dies by the 3 ball and they definitely have enough weapons there
mil also has a penchant for throwing up the 3 and if even one team starts to hit them i think this game goes way over

 

[easterntimezone]

Bobcats/76ers
Bobcats' recent tailspin must be of concern for Brown - up huge against the lowly Wizards, only for Washington to come back and win. Team is stil absent a bonafide SUPERstar and is relying on average-above average-good-type players - the sort that would be similar to a Mychael Thompson on the showtime Lakers of the '80s - never going to displace Kareem, but able-bodied and a surefire great defender on McHale. Augustin is the only one that shows signs of possessing the skills of being elite, but is prone to rookie errors of judgment and mistakes.
76ers - opportunistic is maybe the best description for them; very little regimented sets and patterns, rely and thrive on chaos - turnovers, steals, etc. - no great 3 point shooters unless you count an aging Donyell Marshall. Will drive to the rim, but the unreliability of the collective whole likely an impetus for interim coach DiLeo to remove himself for candidacy beyond this season.

Wouldn't back either of 'em here given that both teams haven't shown a proactive approach to tail end of season (76ers - shoring up their game/Bobcats - making sure they determine whether or not they get into the playoffs).

 

[easterntimezone]

ETZ: re: Mil/Orl

I actually would lean mil this game esp after their loss to the raptors they are prob looking to bounce back.
They are only a half game away from charlotte which means these two have a viable chance at the 8th seed
i agree this should be a steamrolling game for orl as they are trying to lock up the 2nd seed but i don't know if they will cover the big spread.
if i were to play this game i'd be tempted to take the over as orl lives and dies by the 3 ball and they definitely have enough weapons there
mil also has a penchant for throwing up the 3 and if even one team starts to hit them i think this game goes way over

BACKDOOR cover always a scary proposition this time of year - side play.

Bucks' offense can be anemic at times - not sure if can be counted on for point production.

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

i like this play too simply because charlotte's last game against washington was a joke and they surely must be looking to bounce back and fight for that 8th spot
with det's downward spiral that 8th spot becomes a greater possibility
the two teams match up very well i'd even give the advantage to charlotte for the slight advantage their guards have over phi (andre miller is a dinosaur and green is streaky, but then again felton is too but bell can be a good defender)
i also think the under looks to have some value as charlotte is one of the lowest if not hte lowest scoring team and uinder larry brown they play some d
philadelphia's recent over streak seems to have come against teams like gsw, lac, phx and other teams that run the fast pace and don't play d but charlotte isn't one of those teams
hopefully someone can have some numbers run and we can see if this looks more favourable

Guy named Prof., on the other site has some pretty involved sit plays today and one is on CHA + Pts today - have not tracked him long - but his sit. picks are interesting

 

[burnetto57]

IlliniBill has some iteresting trends re. Cha/philly Under ( thinks game in 80s) and on NJ/LAL Over - particularly post # 16 summerizes his rationale - sounds familiar to some of the ones I hear here. Has this guy been over here, anyone know?

 

[axp59]

HOMER ALERT

Did you guys know ATL hasn't lost at home this year on a Friday night. Speaks volume for their play to please their fans under the bright lights. caveat: They've never played an elite level team in any of these games.

C's away from home on FRI is 4-2 SU and ATS. Interesting to note that the O/U is 1-5 avg 191.5 and covers by 12.5. This puts the game somewhere around 179.

There's also been only 3 other times this season that the C's are coming off 2 straight games where they scored 10+ less than expected and allowed 10+ less than expected. On the game after these happenings, C's are 0-3 SU.

Won't bet against my C's but it doesn't look good. Slight value edge on ATL under the lights.

 

[axp59]

IlliniBill has some iteresting trends re. Cha/philly Under ( thinks game in 80s) and on NJ/LAL Over - particularly post # 16 summerizes his rationale - sounds familiar to some of the ones I hear here. Has this guy been over here, anyone know?

I read some of that too KB...well, information sharing is key!

 

[axp59]

Guy named Prof., on the other site has some pretty involved sit plays today and one is on CHA + Pts today - have not tracked him long - but his sit. picks are interesting

He's got some decent sys plays from what I've seen. I was with him on his MIN play against PHI the other night but for different reasons...my was the coming of the road trip getting caught with your pants down.

PHI is another one of those teams that don't lose at home for the fans on a FRI night. They've already played CHA at home on a FRI night and beat them by 6. This one will be tight. CHA is 6-3-1 away from home on FRI avg line right at 5. I see PHI defense controlling this one IMHO. tough tough call to play sys on this one.

 

[axp59]

Bobcats/76ers
Bobcats' recent tailspin must be of concern for Brown - up huge against the lowly Wizards, only for Washington to come back and win. Team is stil absent a bonafide SUPERstar and is relying on average-above average-good-type players - the sort that would be similar to a Mychael Thompson on the showtime Lakers of the '80s - never going to displace Kareem, but able-bodied and a surefire great defender on McHale. Augustin is the only one that shows signs of possessing the skills of being elite, but is prone to rookie errors of judgment and mistakes.
76ers - opportunistic is maybe the best description for them; very little regimented sets and patterns, rely and thrive on chaos - turnovers, steals, etc. - no great 3 point shooters unless you count an aging Donyell Marshall. Will drive to the rim, but the unreliability of the collective whole likely an impetus for interim coach DiLeo to remove himself for candidacy beyond this season.

Wouldn't back either of 'em here given that both teams haven't shown a proactive approach to tail end of season (76ers - shoring up their game/Bobcats - making sure they determine whether or not they get into the playoffs).

Agreed. Tough call for a side on this one.

 

[easterntimezone]

HOMER ALERT

Did you guys know ATL hasn't lost at home this year on a Friday night. Speaks volume for their play to please their fans under the bright lights. caveat: They've never played an elite level team in any of these games.

C's away from home on FRI is 4-2 SU and ATS. Interesting to note that the O/U is 1-5 avg 191.5 and covers by 12.5. This puts the game somewhere around 179.

There's also been only 3 other times this season that the C's are coming off 2 straight games where they scored 10+ less than expected and allowed 10+ less than expected. On the game after these happenings, C's are 0-3 SU.

Won't bet against my C's but it doesn't look good. Slight value edge on ATL under the lights.

Atlanta seemingly has a knack for matching up well against Boston - some teams just have others' number; these 2 teams probably won't end up facing each other in the playoffs so anticipate that they'll let it all hang out so to speak.

Hawks not renown for their high-flying scoring prowess (a la Golden State), but reduce most games they play to a down-in-the-trenches affair - not the most aesthetically pleasing/easy-on-the-eyes outfit in the league. Couple that w/ a defensive-anchored Celtics and it could make for a very turgid contest relative to pace.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Won't bet against my C's but it doesn't look good. Slight value edge on ATL under the lights.

In these kind of games I like the linemakers to cap the game for me (just like Rockets @Jazz under) as it is very rare that Celts are so small favs. We're talking 7 games since 1998 that Celts got to be -1 away fav. They are 2-5 SUATS in those games. Tells me that the linemakers _know_ their strenght (or lack thereof) when giving them such number.
Then you have Hawks bouncing back from a tough loss and still some injuries that shouldn't be neglected for the champs and it gets to be a solid situation to go with the home team.

 

[PickNPop]

I see PHI defense controlling this one IMHO.

Perhaps play on the under then? Last meetings didn't hit tonight's number.

 

[easterntimezone]

In these kind of games I like the linemakers to cap the game for me (just like Rockets @Jazz under) as it is very rare that Celts are so small favs. We're talking 7 games since 1998 that Celts got to be -1 away fav. They are 2-5 SUATS in those games. Tells me that the linemakers _know_ their strenght (or lack thereof) when giving them such number.
Then you have Hawks bouncing back from a tough loss and still some injuries that shouldn't be neglected for the champs and it gets to be a solid situation to go with the home team.

Cue David Axelrod's 'The Edge' (ostensibly issued under David McCallum for marketing purposes).

 

[axp59]

Stalking this one - like Dallas's spot: triple revenge, Denver 3rd road game in a row, Dal 8-2 last 10 home games ats, only laying 4 at home. Plus Carmelo called Wed win at NO "biggest win of the year", Dal coming off highest scoring game of year and shot 59%. Denver just 4-9 ats with 1 day rest. Nene still serving a suspension. I see motivated Dal, content Den.


NBA | DENVER at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS) triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

Ools,

FWIW

Mavs since 1996 in a triple revenge situation playing at home is 31-47 SU, 37-41 ATS..same situation under Friday night lights 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS

Same situation against good teams (.600+), 17-29 SU 22-24 ATS and against good teams on FRI 1-1 SU and ATS

FYI...BOL pal

 

[mpnyc76]

Ools,

FWIW

Mavs since 1996 in a triple revenge situation playing at home is 31-47 SU, 37-41 ATS..same situation under Friday night lights 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS

Same situation against good teams (.600+), 17-29 SU 22-24 ATS and against good teams on FRI 1-1 SU and ATS

FYI...BOL pal

mavs under is chumps' POD

 

[axp59]

Perhaps play on the under then? Last meetings didn't hit tonight's number.

still on the fence with that one PnP.

 

[axp59]

mavs under is chumps' POD

That I'm not entirely sold on

 

[easterntimezone]

Ools,

FWIW

Mavs since 1996 in a triple revenge situation playing at home is 31-47 SU, 37-41 ATS..same situation under Friday night lights 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS

Same situation against good teams (.600+), 17-29 SU 22-24 ATS and against good teams on FRI 1-1 SU and ATS

FYI...BOL pal

Penciled in a Nuggets side for the line when first tabulating games before available at sportsbooks - not sure if this is the best value on the board either; none of the sides really look ripe for picking - only one that has a little big of a magnet is Sacramento at -3, but would one really feel comfortable putting $ on a lackluster outpost of a team against a young, feisty, albeit similarly wayward Grizzlies unit?

 

[axp59]

In these kind of games I like the linemakers to cap the game for me (just like Rockets @Jazz under) as it is very rare that Celts are so small favs. We're talking 7 games since 1998 that Celts got to be -1 away fav. They are 2-5 SUATS in those games. Tells me that the linemakers _know_ their strenght (or lack thereof) when giving them such number.
Then you have Hawks bouncing back from a tough loss and still some injuries that shouldn't be neglected for the champs and it gets to be a solid situation to go with the home team.

Looks like a nice home dog ML situation here Rooster! I hate not being able to think straight because my home team is involved.

 

[axp59]

only one that has a little big of a magnet is Sacramento at -3, but would one really feel comfortable putting $ on a lackluster outpost of a team against a young, feisty, albeit similarly wayward Grizzlies unit?

NOT I sir. As Phil_Riv has pointed out...this may well be an O play