NBA FRI 032709 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

at second glance i am getting close to the number but the line is rather high for a memph team that has been consistently scoring in the 80's recently. due for a breakout performance. no better place to put up BIG numbers than Arco. thoughts?

The numbers at home for the Kings @205+ O/U is 9-10 with the avg total of 211. These are two VERY well rested teams. How that translates, the numbers don't say. Add to this playing a VERY bad team <.300 and the O/U is 2-2 avg 211.

O/U at home on Friday this season is 7-3 avg total 205 and covers by 13...Damn tough call from the trending point of view

 

[jim844]

for some reason i do not think the OKC game stays under

being from toronto and having watched the season unfold i think at this part of the season toronto is like a mini gsw
they are attempting to just run n gun, set the pace, score buckets, and of course the ever present lack of defense
they've given up any hope of the playoffs and i don't think they even care so much about winning the remaining games as they do about getting their numbers now and trying to make the game a lil more exciting for home fans (yes i know a win is the best thing they can do for fans but it's the raptors..)
i also believe ETZ's stat about raps being 0-15 ATS after wins
this is a team that doesn't know the meaning of winning streak
this looks like another typical toronto loss to a team they *should* beat
durant has bruised forearm but is expected to play
and the combination of durant, westbrook, green may be too much for the raptors as they need atleast 2 players who are consistently hitting shots and that's the one word u cannot use to describe the raptors
consistent.
just a lean but i'm thinkin okc covers with also a good chance of the over

 

[Chooch77]

Ax, how are you bud? It's been a rough week got a little back last night. Baseball can't get here soon enough!!

 

[axp59]

for some reason i do not think the OKC game stays under

I take back my lean on TOR. Since the new year, these guys can't cover at home even on a Friday night for their fans, if they have any left. Again, with the total, I think the books have this right. They're sure to get money on each side of this one.

 

[axp59]

just a lean but i'm thinkin okc covers with also a good chance of the over

I'm starting to buy into this proposition Jim..you make very valid points and coupled with ETZ's analysis, OKC may be a viable play here.

 

[axp59]

Ax, how are you bud? It's been a rough week got a little back last night. Baseball can't get here soon enough!!

Man, I hear that, even with last night's hit I'm still down 2.5U for the week. I'm dying for opening day pal. The NBA has taken a lot out of me this season but still up about 35U for the year. Geez, was it worth all this stress? YES

BOL pal

 

[easterntimezone]

I take back my lean on TOR. Since the new year, these guys can't cover at home even on a Friday night for their fans, if they have any left. Again, with the total, I think the books have this right. They're sure to get money on each side of this one.

What's even more pathetic about this team is that they sat Bargnani out w/ a supposed Achilles heel issue (read: discretely tank by losing to a wildly inconsistent opponent) when up against the Clippers - plan goes all awry when they go ahead and beat Los Angeles w/o fail.

Can't even lose properly when upper management wants them to - how's that for an underachieving team in all respects?

 

[Philip_Rivers]

4 days of rest for Sac

4 days of rest for Sac

The numbers at home for the Kings @205+ O/U is 9-10 with the avg total of 211. These are two VERY well rested teams. How that translates, the numbers don't say. Add to this playing a VERY bad team <.300 and the O/U is 2-2 avg 211.

O/U at home on Friday this season is 7-3 avg total 205 and covers by 13...Damn tough call from the trending point of view

It was only about 2 weeks ago when the Kings were coming off 4 days of rest. On March 3 they lost to Indy 117-109, then 4 days later on March 8 they killed Denver 114-106 (probably the best game they palyed all year). BOL fellas!

 

[axp59]

It was only about 2 weeks ago when the Kings were coming off 4 days of rest. On March 3 they lost to Indy 117-109, then 4 days later on March 8 they killed Denver 114-106 (probably the best game they palyed all year). BOL fellas!

Nice info Phil_Riv...looks like rest translate into points...

 

[omega]

thanks ax
Glads to see u back
Not the same here without your valuable inputs.
Always appreciate u taking time answering inqueries
Glad i finally found a home here(if u dont mind):tongue

 

[axp59]

Man, gotta start paying more attention to sides play. I missed my under WED but the DEN ML and PHO ATS were good calls. I'll be back in a bit, going to rerun some numbers

 

[axp59]

thanks ax
Glads to see u back
Not the same here without your valuable inputs.
Always appreciate u taking time answering inqueries
Glad i finally found a home here(if u dont mind):tongue

Thanks Bro. It does fell like home doesn't it? Home Sweet Home

 

[Philip_Rivers]

Nice info Phil_Riv...looks like rest translate into points...

Yes, exactly. But rest does not translate into playing defense. I can count on one hand how many times the Kings held a team to under 100 pts this season.

 

[JBrilman]

east time zone teams with only 2 days of rest in last 3 games, playing 2nd home game after at least one game in pacific time zone are 0-15 ATS. rare system, very impressive and consistent.

in the last month of the season, teams with only 4 days of rest in last 7 games are 1-25 ATS in their 2nd home game after 4 or more road games if they are on the road in their next game.

my play:Charlotte +5.5


THIS WAS ON THE OTHER SITE POSTED BY THE PROF...

interesting stuff

 

[burnetto57]

Thx AX,

Re; 'this time of year issue'.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Joe, I don't know if you're using sportsdatabase but if you ever run into this problem again...try killercappers

I tried .. both .. now it works!!!

*work*

:00hour

 

[PickNPop]

Im really liking Toronto tomorrow. This could be one of those old fashioned waxing of the Thunder we are used to seeing.

Thoughts?

Personally I cannot bet for or against my Craptors anymore. They're terribly unpredictable. Yes we're on a little win streak and it is a revenge game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us sh!t the bed either. BOL if you decide to play.

for some reason i do not think the OKC game stays under

This seems safer than taking a side, IMO. The Bucks game the other night showed that we're not gonna put the opponent away and we've been an over machine lately. It does worry me that OKC hasn't been putting up the points lately though.

Bosh = Eric Gordon and Anthony Randolph, if you will.

Don't get me wrong, Gordon would be PERFECT for us but I can't see the Clippers being that dumb. Oh wait, Sterling is in talks with Isiah Thomas. :mj07:

I dug around some more PnP, something about this game really scares me. I know that's not enough to go on right now but I'll have some info either way later today.

Are the recent GSW/SA and LAC/NYK games perhaps skewnig your results?

 

[easterntimezone]

Bucks/Magic
Bucks are running on fumes now - Sessions's play has subsided as defenses hone in on him and Villaneuva. Losses of Redd and Bogut - the longer you go, the more you're exposed. Skiles ought to be considered for coach of the year for having kept them in the playoff hunt for as long as he did. Owner Kohl has been bleeding losses for quite some time now and w/ no revenue coming in from the playoffs, will hemorrhage even more.
Magic come off a win against the Celtics that generated more relief than outright confidence - surrendering a 16 point lead will do that. Do they head into this game having buried the Bucks in Milwaukee about a week or so back w/ much vigor or run through their paces? Lakers have been taking it to teams the last 3 games or so w/ a renewed commitment; not sure if they'll be able to correct their lackadaisical tendencies by the time the playoffs come 'round (Jackson having to blast 'em again in the 3rd, especially Fisher), but looking like a squad fine-tuning themselves for the postseason - can the Magic adopt a similar mindset? If yes, then this game isn't even in doubt. If they come in feeling good about themselves having beaten Boston barely, then Bucks keep it close for as long as possible before falling apart b/c of lack of bodies.

 

[jim844]

i like this play too simply because charlotte's last game against washington was a joke and they surely must be looking to bounce back and fight for that 8th spot
with det's downward spiral that 8th spot becomes a greater possibility
the two teams match up very well i'd even give the advantage to charlotte for the slight advantage their guards have over phi (andre miller is a dinosaur and green is streaky, but then again felton is too but bell can be a good defender)
i also think the under looks to have some value as charlotte is one of the lowest if not hte lowest scoring team and uinder larry brown they play some d
philadelphia's recent over streak seems to have come against teams like gsw, lac, phx and other teams that run the fast pace and don't play d but charlotte isn't one of those teams
hopefully someone can have some numbers run and we can see if this looks more favourable

 

[Ools]

Mavs

Mavs

Stalking this one - like Dallas's spot: triple revenge, Denver 3rd road game in a row, Dal 8-2 last 10 home games ats, only laying 4 at home. Plus Carmelo called Wed win at NO "biggest win of the year", Dal coming off highest scoring game of year and shot 59%. Denver just 4-9 ats with 1 day rest. Nene still serving a suspension. I see motivated Dal, content Den.


NBA | DENVER at DALLAS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS) triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )