NBA SAT 032109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

Anyone have thoughts on Orl/NYK 1h U? NY averaging 44 & Orl 56 respectively L5 games. Current line is 110.

Thanks, G:0corn

I broke this down 1H last night...go back to about page 3 or so...you'll find your answer there. I just can't remember what the exact number are

 

[axp59]

Well according to this stat, it means that the Knicks would hang around, which would be bad for our under as a blowout would be better.

However, the Bricks might be done for the season considering they got beat bad by the Harris-less Nets and the previously 0-28 against the East Queens. Here's hoping it's the latter!

Just remember last night's discussion on NY being a dead team...it's over, that run they had is a distant memory. Let's hope they don't completely lay down and allow ORL to cover the Over by themselves.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Anyone have thoughts on Orl/NYK 1h U? NY averaging 44 & Orl 56 respectively L5 games. Current line is 110.

Thanks, G:0corn

Statistically, Magic has highest win% and point production in first 2 Qs, Knicks like to play 2nd and 3rd best.
Knicks worst are (even) 1st and 4th, while Magics by far best quarter is 1st (over 60% win, +3pt better production).

Now you made me look into Magic 1st q -3.5 :toast:

 

[axp59]

regression model-plays as expected on anygiven day anywhere

NY/ORL
50 57

Weighted Geometric Mean- Home team dictates

48 58


Exponential Smoothing - what have you done for me lately.

41 61

Granpa...

 

[LookKaPyPy]

I'm about to lock this under. I'm getting ready to go out for the evening and I already put too much thought into this game. You liking the under bro?

Taggin' along...gotta share it all...good and good

 

[eeeerock]

Tidbit from Bator over at *overs:

"tonight will be the Knicks' eighth game since New Year's in which they were playing a team that beat them at the Garden in their last meeting. The Knicks have covered all seven rematches so far. "

That is good stuff as I also pay attention to blowouts,anything Over 25 points or more,teams usually rebound after a blowout and vice versa lay down some after blowing one out.....This is key as the Knicks lost by 25 in last contest and Orlando won by 25 in their last.Could be a good play on the Knicks as well...Also this is a home and home.Knicks hang on the road then come home and get bounced or do the Knicks get blown out and come back with a solid home game?

 

[granpa]

I broke this down 1H last night...go back to about page 3 or so...you'll find your answer there. I just can't remember what the exact number are

Got it. Thanks Ax.

 

[PickNPop]

That is good stuff as I also pay attention to blowouts,anything Over 25 points or more,teams usually rebound after a blowout and vice versa lay down some after blowing one out.....This is key as the Knicks lost by 25 in last contest and Orlando won by 25 in their last.Could be a good play on the Knicks as well...Also this is a home and home.Knicks hang on the road then come home and get bounced or do the Knicks get blown out and come back with a solid home game?

Personally, I cannot touch the Knicks with a ten foot pole. Good luck if you do play them.

If I were to take a side, it would probably be Charlotte, who have been scoring a lot lately, playing against Indy who have hit a bit of a drought and are terrible on the road.

 

[axp59]

My Card

POD 1U
[506] TOTAL u215-110
(NEW YORK vrs ORLANDO)

1U
[508] TOTAL u191-110
(BOSTON vrs MEMPHIS)

action bets:

[504] TOTAL u199-110
(INDIANA vrs CHARLOTTE)

[509] LA LAKERS -3?-110

BOLTA

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

ny/orl
66% = over %
34% = under %

ind/char
62%
38%

bos/mem
39%
61%

port/mil
49%
51%

lal/chi
74%
26%

 

[pkkingster15]

ax-

Just got done with my first-over of tonight's action. Love the Knicks under, that was one of three plays that really stuck out. I'm surprised noone here has mentioned Charlotte, although I know it's mostly totals. This was my strongest play, the Pacers just won't have an answer for the kind of defense Charlotte has been playing of late. Wallace has been on a tear, and shouldn't be slowed by anyone the Pacers throw at him. BOL tonight guys, great info in this thread. I'm sure we all appreciate the difference in respect here, lets get that money!

 

[PickNPop]

My Card

POD 1U
[506] TOTAL u215-110
(NEW YORK vrs ORLANDO)

1U
[508] TOTAL u191-110
(BOSTON vrs MEMPHIS)

action bets:

[504] TOTAL u199-110
(INDIANA vrs CHARLOTTE)

[509] LA LAKERS -3?-110

BOLTA

BOL Ax & the A-TEAM! Let's give the bookies an encore from last nigh! kurby

 

[PickNPop]

I did a few posts ago and possibly one other poster as well. Did you play them on already, PKK?

 

[axp59]

ny/orl
66% = over %
34% = under %

ind/char
62%
38%

bos/mem
39%
61%

port/mil
49%
51%

lal/chi
74%
26%

Thanks Flippa. I hope we didn't take you away from anything important. Looks like I'm with the public for my homer under. GL tonight!!!

 

[axp59]

ax-

Just got done with my first-over of tonight's action. Love the Knicks under, that was one of three plays that really stuck out. I'm surprised noone here has mentioned Charlotte, although I know it's mostly totals. This was my strongest play, the Pacers just won't have an answer for the kind of defense Charlotte has been playing of late. Wallace has been on a tear, and shouldn't be slowed by anyone the Pacers throw at him. BOL tonight guys, great info in this thread. I'm sure we all appreciate the difference in respect here, lets get that money!

BOL tonight pal!

 

[axp59]

BOL Ax & the A-TEAM! Let's give the bookies an encore from last nigh! kurby

Catch up with you guys late night!!!

 

[greenfield]

thanks,and good luck Ax

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

Thanks Flippa. I hope we didn't take you away from anything important. Looks like I'm with the public for my homer under. GL tonight!!!

I'm just glad to contribute in any way I can.
Good luck everyone!!!!!

Have a great time tonight, Ax.

 

[easterntimezone]

BOL Ax & the A-TEAM! Let's give the bookies an encore from last nigh! kurby

PNP -

Public bloodbath today in the EPL from what I can gather concerning Man U, Chelsea and Everton; didn't catch the Arsenal game, but hoping to watch a replay later - saw that Bendtner scored w/ a header, but I'll chalk that up to Arshavin's ability and less b/c of the Dane's abilities...

Plays:

New York/Orlando -
1 unit: U 215

Lakers -
1 unit: - 3.5

Don't really have a great 'feel' for this game so gonna blindly tail:

Boston/Memphis
0.5 unit: U 192.5

BOLTA - hope see everyone at the window...

 

[PickNPop]

PNP -

Public bloodbath today in the EPL from what I can gather concerning Man U, Chelsea and Everton; didn't catch the Arsenal game, but hoping to watch a replay later - saw that Bendtner scored w/ a header, but I'll chalk that up to Arshavin's ability and less b/c of the Dane's abilities...

Shocking results, really! I think I need to stop betting on ManU - I have lost my 3 bets on them!:scared Chelsea losing was a surprise too. First defeat with Dutchman Hiddink at the helm if I am not mistaken.

BOLTA on y/our plays tonight!