NBA SAT 032809 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

LFTNUT

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Mar 22, 2009
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under

under

i noticed that the past several times the over jumped up a lot, it went under. think what u like but i will play the under not because what i just told you. the numbers dont add up to an over game.:00x15
 

axp59

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Good Morning AX ... I'm on a bit of a slide also ... it happens but I'm up 20 ++ for the season and you're up 30 ++ for the season so it could be worse.

It's the time of year when some teams are throwing in the towel ... some regulars are playing less minutes ... all teams are looking forward to the playoffs or looking forward to going golfing soon ... don't these thugs realize these games are important to all of us ???

Good Luck my friend ...

Thank you my friend...very comforting. As one of our friends sent in an email yesterday...I may also be so itchy to get to baseball that I'm losing focus...There's a bit of truth to everything I've been hearing from all you guys. Let's finish strong Chump! BOL
 

axp59

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I am on the Bulls Under at 209 for half a unit.

Somebody tell me why it is 40/60 o/u and the 209 is now 213?

I smell a loss!

Ax what do you think.

Something fishy here and I'd rather not be a part of it. How much money moves 4 points????
 

axp59

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hey ax , from what im reading looks like alot of guys took it on the chin last night i know i did...

for me it's been all week...down 3+ large and now I'm gun shy and so pulled the trigger on 2 I thought were solid plays...I'm going to ride those two out and live or die by them

BOL
 

axp59

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i noticed that the past several times the over jumped up a lot, it went under. think what u like but i will play the under not because what i just told you. the numbers dont add up to an over game.:00x15

How can all of us be missing something here??? What's going on with this game. One hour to go I have no clue.
 

40seven

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Mar 18, 2009
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Please stop direspecting this thread!!

Please stop direspecting this thread!!

Ax has worked hard to create a thread about Under plays.

What we aredoing with this Bulls pacers play is great, but

Read the thread before you post and stop asking Ax what are your plays.

It will only start a bad thing and why Ax left the "other side of the street".

Bring your ideas not your wants
 

jagerfury

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Under plays are where the inherent values are...

I imagine your own handicapping through the years has led you to this conclusion, but...could you explain why unders are more value than overs?
 

ImNext1000

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Mar 22, 2009
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IND VS CHI jumped to 213.5 now

man im staying away ......

on a side i think MD is gonna win over vandi in womens college basketball .....lady terps are rolling :00hour
 

barts185

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Does anyone know of a site where I could see all the boxscores for a particular team without having to go game by game clicking on one link per game?

Thanks,
Bart
 

CoFred

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Ax, any thoughts on the Memphis/Portland total? It's down to 191 at Bodog. What's minimum value for this under?
 

Slicer

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A note about Villa/Pitt, since this game falls into my conference records for Big East play I figured I would share an insight. When tracking the Accuscore system, when it selected an over in Big East play the overs went 13-19-1.

As above, I really see a good under here, if Villa can get Blair out of the game, Pitt goes into the tank, I don't think we'll see run and gun this game and I envision more of a mid 60's game by both teams. 68-63 Villa.

As for Pro totals- Port/memp has the trends supporting it, little scared of Port's offense and the fact the line is 12.5, hoping Memphis is tired from their previous contest and can't muster 85 and Portland keeps it close to 100, I can see this game being very close the O/U line but I'm trusting in Ax's judgement.

I think the NY/CHA play is dead solid play, no question about it.

BOL to us today/tonight fellas, we need a good rebound day to start the weekend.
 

Chooch77

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Mar 20, 2009
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Hey Ax, Here are some trends on Char/NYK...fatigue will play a major role in keeping this one under the number. Charlotte has played to the under in 4 of its last 5 and the Knicks have played to the under in 7 of their last 8. The Under is 10-4 in the Bobcats last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-2 in the Bobcats last 8 home games, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Under is 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 games as an underdog, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. This one has the under written all over it.

Bulls/IND...

Chicago has made a fortress out of the United Center since the All-Star break, covering 9 of last 10 as host, with the only loss coming at the hands of the West-leading Lakers.
 

axp59

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I imagine your own handicapping through the years has led you to this conclusion, but...could you explain why unders are more value than overs?

I will sir...I am pressed for time right now. I promise I'll answer this but the many cappers here can also address this. It has to do with line setting by the books plus the public perception and penchant for the over, the "square play" if you will.
 

axp59

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Ax, any thoughts on the Memphis/Portland total? It's down to 191 at Bodog. What's minimum value for this under?

Cor, that's at minimum/no value at that number. It's a tough call whether you still buy in. Check out NY. Still offers slight value @ 205.5, I missed the boat @207 but got in @206 last night. BOL
 
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