NBA SUN 032209 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[proguy747]

it is march madness. maybe we are looking in the wrong spot.

 

[jlippens]

Axp: I understand completely what you are saying. However, the more I look into it the more the situations (outside of the OKC/Phx game, which is baffling) I believe are completely explainable, in terms of both teams hitting a ton of unders recently. We'll get all the work out but I really believe the OVER play checks out.

PS. It's great to be here, brother.

 

[axp59]

The "number" (I'm guessing you're looking at average point totals/allowed?) might be telling you UNDER, but the reason trends are probably telling you over is because bad teams love playing each other. They can both play the ball they like (that is, without defence) and hell, they actually have a chance of still winning the game anyway.

The main difference between good and bad teams has less to do with talent than you'd believe. It has to do with a dedication to playing defence. Bad teams, in a word, don't.

Bad teams once they're out of the playoff race are even worse, in terms of commitment to defence. These are individual players now with nothing more to play for than to pad their ndividual stats sheet.

The final nail in this coffin is Kevin Durant. As Chump said in response to my charge that the Thunder are 100 times better on defence without him (but only 10 times better overall without him!), he agreed, calling Durant a "poppinjay". See, that is why I love Chump being a granddad! I mean, who the hell says that? That is awesome. But the point remains. He's a streetballer who loves nothing more than scoring 35 a night and never even bothering to try defending.

The reason the number is this low (I believe) is because Minnesota totals have consistently been going under recently (3-7 L10). However, upon investigation, those unders were generated against elite level teams, or offensive teams where the number was 219+ (New York--which isn't the high flying team it has been all season, and GSW, where the number was 226.

I really think 199 is a steal. This number seems likely to rise.

Compelling...and I've heard Chump say that...Wish he would pay us a visit. Keep selling me on this play and I may just buy-in.

 

[axp59]

Ax -

I don't think I watched this game if @ all b/c I likely didn't have a play on it; couldn't even remember if was @ home or away for New Orleans until I looked it up...

I will say that what likely persuaded me from viewing was I find New Orleans plays a pretty mundane brand of basketball that's OVERdependent on Paul (see Portland game for complete collapse by the Hornets after his pulled groin) and the Warriors' COMPLETE aversion to defense.

It was a shot ETZ, I just love the way you break down games and I was hoping you got a chance to see this one. We'll have to approach this from another angle then. It seems the others are occupied with the OKC/MIN play and I'm dying to find out which way that lean is going. This is the game though that does peak my interest and I'll dig deep into this.

 

[proguy747]

The "number" (I'm guessing you're looking at average point totals/allowed?) might be telling you UNDER, but the reason trends are probably telling you over is because bad teams love playing each other. They can both play the ball they like (that is, without defence) and hell, they actually have a chance of still winning the game anyway.

The main difference between good and bad teams has less to do with talent than you'd believe. It has to do with a dedication to playing defence. Bad teams, in a word, don't.

Bad teams once they're out of the playoff race are even worse, in terms of commitment to defence. These are individual players now with nothing more to play for than to pad their ndividual stats sheet.

The final nail in this coffin is Kevin Durant. As Chump said in response to my charge that the Thunder are 100 times better on defence without him (but only 10 times better overall without him!), he agreed, calling Durant a "poppinjay". See, that is why I love Chump being a granddad! I mean, who the hell says that? That is awesome. But the point remains. He's a streetballer who loves nothing more than scoring 35 a night and never even bothering to try defending.

The reason the number is this low (I believe) is because Minnesota totals have consistently been going under recently (3-7 L10). However, upon investigation, those unders were generated against elite level teams, or offensive teams where the number was 219+ (New York--which isn't the high flying team it has been all season, and GSW, where the number was 226.

I really think 199 is a steal. This number seems likely to rise.

wow this guy is good. not feeling so tired anymore.

 

[axp59]

it is march madness. maybe we are looking in the wrong spot.

that's certainly an option!!

 

[easterntimezone]

The final nail in this coffin is Kevin Durant. As Chump said in response to my charge that the Thunder are 100 times better on defence without him (but only 10 times better overall without him!), he agreed, calling Durant a "poppinjay". See, that is why I love Chump being a granddad! I mean, who the hell says that? That is awesome. But the point remains. He's a streetballer who loves nothing more than scoring 35 a night and never even bothering to try defending.

The Thunder definitely have been having problems reintegrating Durant into the mix owing to the time he has w/ the ball - during his absence, Westbrook dominated and now you've got to share 1 ball b/w 2 headstrong guys who think score 1st? Which swayed me into backing the Bulls and the Jazz for their last 2 games.

 

[easterntimezone]

It was a shot ETZ, I just love the way you break down games and I was hoping you got a chance to see this one. We'll have to approach this from another angle then. It seems the others are occupied with the OKC/MIN play and I'm dying to find out which way that lean is going. This is the game though that does peak my interest and I'll dig deep into this.

Thanks Ax, wanted to be honest tho' and not make anything up about something I hadn't had the foggiest notion about whatsoever...

 

[axp59]

Axp: I understand completely what you are saying. However, the more I look into it the more the situations (outside of the OKC/Phx game, which is baffling) I believe are completely explainable, in terms of both teams hitting a ton of unders recently. We'll get all the work out but I really believe the OVER play checks out.

PS. It's great to be here, brother.

Fantastic...looking forward to it. I'm going to concentrate more on the GS/NO but Ill go with what you guys come up with. I can't take all the credit for my 3-1 day today. I had a hand in the POD but tailed the Lakers side from one of these guy's very compelling argument. Who was that? take a bow!

 

[axp59]

wow this guy is good. not feeling so tired anymore.

Jlipps is a solid capper and I've know this from our interactions from across the way at our old home.

 

[Philip_Rivers]

Philly at Sac: O/U 208

As a Kings fan I don't recall a Philly game in Sac going over the total. So I did some checking and here's what I found:

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento.

Add that to these trends:

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games following a S.U. win.

Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Kings finally got their ONE win against the NBA East when they killed the Knicks on Friday probably playng their most complete game of the season. I sense a possible let down offensively. Lot's of effort was put into not having the dubious distinction of going winless against the NBA East for the year.

That's my 2 cents....I know there was little hope for finding that true bargain for Sunday...so I thought I would contribute.

BOL boys...let's finish the week strong.

 

[axp59]

Thanks Ax, wanted to be honest tho' and not make anything up about something I hadn't had the foggiest notion about whatsoever...

That's why I respect you ETZ.

 

[axp59]

Philly at Sac: O/U 208

As a Kings fan I don't recall a Philly game in Sac going over the total. So I did some checking and here's what I found:

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento.

Add that to these trends:

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games following a S.U. win.

Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Kings finally got their ONE win against the NBA East when they killed the Knicks on Friday probably playng their most complete game of the season. I sense a possible let down offensively. Lot's of effort was put into not having the dubious distinction of going winless against the NBA East for the year.

That's my 2 cents....I know there was little hope for finding that true bargain for Sunday...so I thought I would contribute.

BOL boys...let's finish the week strong.

Wow Phil_Riv...didn't think you had this in ya but I'm pleasantly surprised. You hardly said a word at our old home and bam!!! I love it. This one goes on the list too. I'll break down some numbers to support this or shoot it down. Thank you and nice to see you!

 

[Philip_Rivers]

Wow Phil_Riv...didn't think you had this in ya but I'm pleasantly surprised. You hardly said a word at our old home and bam!!! I love it. This one goes on the list too. I'll break down some numbers to support this or shoot it down. Thank you and nice to see you!

Thanks brother...I like to think I 've been quietly learning while observing everyone's posts the past few weeks. Nevertheless, I want to contribute - at least for Kings games, cuz, this is where I'm comfortable.

Crunch the #s and see what you find out...at least we can consider it or shoot it down.

 

[easterntimezone]

Night all - I'll check back in the morning and see if sleeping on it has produced anything remotely resembling clarity concerning the card.

Ax probably knows I'm a fan of Warren Buffett (and his mentor Benjamin Graham) from our discourse so I'll leave this w/ you about tomorrow if nothing avails itself w/ compelling likelihood; Buffett's maxim:

Rule # 1: DON'T LOSE MONEY.

Rule # 2: DON'T FORGET RULE # 1.

 

[axp59]

Thanks brother...I like to think I 've been quietly learning while observing everyone's posts the past few weeks. Nevertheless, I want to contribute - at least for Kings games, cuz, this is where I'm comfortable.

Crunch the #s and see what you find out...at least we can consider it or shoot it down.

Awesome man, love having you here my friend. :toast:

 

[axp59]

Night all - I'll check back in the morning and see if sleeping on it has produced anything remotely resembling clarity concerning the card.

Ax probably knows I'm a fan of Warren Buffett (and his mentor Benjamin Graham) from our discourse so I'll leave this w/ you about tomorrow if nothing avails itself w/ compelling likelihood; Buffett's maxim:

Rule # 1: DON'T LOSE MONEY.

Rule # 2: DON'T FORGET RULE # 1.

nite pal

 

[Slicer]

Overnight Accuscore numbers, will run again around 11am if i get the chance, some family stuff to do tmorrow in the pm:

Spurs by 5.0 and 179
Twolves by .7 and 202.5
Raptors by 7.5 and 205.5
Cavs by 8.8 and 186.6
Hornets by 12 and 211.6
Sixers by 2.1 and 211.5

 

[axp59]

Overnight Accuscore numbers, will run again around 11am if i get the chance, some family stuff to do tmorrow in the pm:

Spurs by 5.0 and 179
Twolves by .7 and 202.5
Raptors by 7.5 and 205.5
Cavs by 8.8 and 186.6
Hornets by 12 and 211.6
Sixers by 2.1 and 211.5

thanks slice!!!

 

[Slicer]

For you NCAA fans:

Syracuse by 1.0 and 140.6
Xavier by 1.6 and 124
Kansas by 10.7 and 131.1
Arizona by 5.2 and 132.2
Pitt by 6.5 and 148.3
Mizzou by 6.3 and 149.5
Mich St by 6.7 and 131.3
Louisville by 11.8 and 143.4