NBA TUE 032409 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[easterntimezone]

in so many words, it was the right ticket!

I saw that it was a source of consternation for you Ax - and it was bewildering for me given how everything looked w/ approximately 3 and a half minutes or so to go...

The exaggerated high-pitched whine of the arena announcer declaring '_ for 3' after one from distance has been made for the home team is annoying enough, but you grow accustomed to hear either Johnson or Bibby w/ Smith and occasionally now Law and Evans, but the number of times Murray's name came up at the end? Felt like an episode of the "Twilight Zone"...

 

[axp59]

I saw that it was a source of consternation for you Ax - and it was bewildering for me given how everything looked w/ approximately 3 and a half minutes or so to go...

The exaggerated high-pitched whine of the arena announcer declaring '_ for 3' after one from distance has been made for the home team is annoying enough, but you grow accustomed to hear either Johnson or Bibby w/ Smith and occasionally now Law and Evans, but the number of times Murray's name came up at the end? Felt like an episode of the "Twilight Zone"...

ETZ, thank you...you know I NEEDED something. I don't care how long you've been doing this...when you're in the 'guessing' game, doubt is certain to enter the mix.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Kudos to you for running w/ the Nevilles when they were a lot funkier as the Meters in a NOLA style than the adult contemporary version that the general public knows

:SIB

I like me the good music man


now playing:
Betty Davis - Shoo-b-doop and cop him dance1

 

[barts185]

Barts,
You may be interested in running the query I posted about on pg. 1 post #7

Is it okay to post code as long as there is no link? I'm not trying to get around any rules, just trying to figure them out.

Took me a few minutes (I used to be a programmer, but only started using this a day or so ago), but I got

team=Pistons and season=2008 and p:day=Sunday and p:margin<0 and p:site=home and site=away

It's DET or noboby for me, will probably pull the trigger. Should have taken -102, now I see it's back to 105 at Pinny, was hoping it would go to 6.

 

[axp59]

team=Pistons and season=2008 and p:day=Sunday and p:margin<0 and p:site=home and site=away

I use p:HL (home loss) but I think that works...never had a problem posting codes...just no links to pay services

maybe an admin can clarify

 

[LookKaPyPy]

team=Pistons and season=2008 and p:day=Sunday and p:margin<0 and p:site=home and site=away

It's DET or noboby for me, will probably pull the trigger. Should have taken -102, now I see it's back to 105 at Pinny, was hoping it would go to 6.

is it just because of that trend ?
I ask because, every trend has chance at being broken...4-1 ATS yes, but wins @SAC, @SAS (check out boxscore, Sheed 4/6 3p), @MIN and @DAL (lead by 14 at the end of 3rd w/o Howard)...and the one loss was against the Bulls.

Spurs win was a good one I guess, fav at SAC and MIN, Mavs let them back in the game. I'm asuming Sheed and Rip played in each, AI too... ? (didn't check it)

I don't want to put you off your pick of course, just wondering. BOL

 

[barts185]

I use p:HL (home loss) but I think that works...never had a problem posting codes...just no links to pay services

maybe an admin can clarify

I'm still learning SQDL - give me another day and I'll be up to using the abbreviatons

Anyone who's into current trends might want to check this one out - no longer term validity, but 0-22 at the moment to the under (disclaimer - I found this somewhere else, did not come up with it on my own).

p:dps<-5 and site=site=home and date>=20090315

 

[PickNPop]

p:dps<-5 and site=site=home and date>=20090315

What does dps stand for?

 

[barts185]

is it just because of that trend ?
I ask because, every trend has chance at being broken...4-1 ATS yes, but wins @SAC, @SAS (check out boxscore, Sheed 4/6 3p), @MIN and @DAL (lead by 14 at the end of 3rd w/o Howard)...and the one loss was against the Bulls.

Spurs win was a good one I guess, fav at SAC and MIN, Mavs let them back in the game. I'm asuming Sheed and Rip played in each, AI too... ? (didn't check it)

I don't want to put you off your pick of course, just wondering. BOL

No, I didn't actually know about that trend when I was considering the game.

I like the game due to thinking that even with the injuries, DET is going to be the more motivated team in this game. Even though CHI is behind them in the standings, CHI has a much easier schedule coming up. They only have 2 games left against teams that are currently at .500 or better, and those are home games.

DET has played well even with the players out. I felt it was very important that they were able to play well in HOU.

Personally, I make the correct price on the game 2.5 or 3, so think there is value taking 4.5 or more. At 5.5, would normally be a no-brainer, but the concern I have is actually with how well CHI does coming home after a road game.

 

[barts185]

What does dps stand for?

dps - This stands for Delta Points Scored. It is
the difference between the points the team was
expected to score and the number of points
they actually scored. For example, a team that
is favored by 6 points in a game that has an
OU line of 190, is expected to win by a
margin of 98-92. That is, they are expected
score 98 points and to allow 92 points. If they
win by a margin of 103-102, their dps is plus 5
points. This means that they scored 5 points
more than expected.

 

[axp59]

is it just because of that trend ?

Not for me...trends can be spun with a correctly place > or < sign.

It helps me see the big picture when I put little pieces together.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

I'm not as confident with the over as before I had this help with this SQDLthing

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Not for me...trends can be spun with a correctly place > or < sign.

It helps me see the big picture when I put little pieces together.

Yeah, I like only situational trends that don't get affected easily. Like teams coming of big over-wins...Knicks is a team that will usually lose the next game when going over by 20-30pts... probably has to do with how much energy they use up in that game. I like trends when the league beats Celtics/Lakers...home/away...


One of my fav
po:team=Nuggets and p:site=away and site=home and rest=0 and 20001030<=date

league playing Nuggets away then going home on no rest tend to hit under at 60%
3-2 o/u so far this year, helped me get MIN @PHO under, got off other 2 as those team don't support defence

 

[MadJack]

I use p:HL (home loss) but I think that works...never had a problem posting codes...just no links to pay services

maybe an admin can clarify

no links at all, please.

thanks

 

[axp59]

Also check these out for unders tomorrow:

p:dps<-5 and p:dpa<-5 and site=site=home and date>=20090315

O/U 0-10

additional consideration for previous dpa<-5 and not just previous dps<-5

Hornets/Nuggets
Mavericks/Warriors
Raptors/Bucks

FYI

 

[barts185]

I'm not as confident with the over as before I had this help with this SQDLthing

Joe - if it's because of that 0-22 to the under that I posted, run some different ranges and you'll see that there isn't much to that under trend.

Specifically, the last half of March, same query, just changing the years

p:dps<-5 and site=site=home and date>=20080315 and date <=20080331

2000 20-18
2001 18-16
2002 14-23
2003 16-13
2004 21-27
2005 10-17
2006 19-21
2007 23-18
2008 20-18

I'm going to be away for an hour or two, hope to rejoin the discussion when I get back.

 

[axp59]

Thank you Jack..

I'll post this notice every few pages so everyone gets a chance to see it.

 

[cricket2009]

ax i think with sheed out of the line-up it would help the over meaning that their guards can not only shoot but they can take it to the rack as well being that when he is in there he is a defensive presence............mcdyes or salami brown don't defend the rim as well...........what u think

 

[Flandroy]

first thoughts went to under in lal/okc quite logically but lakers use to underestimate poor opposition and so it obviously turn to a shooting feast during last quarter/half. lakers are 24-11 o/u playing teams <0.300 away so i will be not on under certailnly.

 

[axp59]

One of my fav
po:team=Nuggets and p:site=away and site=home and rest=0 and 20001030<=date

l/QUOTE]

NOTE to younger guys and newer cappers

Rooster here is sharing one of his favs. You've seen me throw around some of these codes in the past. Others have done the same. Go back a few pages and Woodson threw out a couple. This is a great opportunity for you guys to start building up a collection of these. It's a great way to learn SDQL and soon, you won't need these but they do come in handy. I still have a few I go back to.

Thanks