NBA TUE 033109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

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pistol495

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axp59 said:
I never thought about that from that angle. They'd be getting more rest though than the average b2b since the previous game was in the afternoon. On the other side would be a late game and coming back to play an early game. hmmmmm

thanks pistol..
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Ax,

Similar situation last week with DET/MIA who played to 197 on an early Sun PM and then Monday night MIA played a low scoring stinker against MEM.

I cant explain it (perhaps because it simply coincidence) but the team has to adjust differently going from day to night.

Sun - Tue may hold the same trends.

I am looking at CHI playing two day games over the weekend and getting into some high scoring affairs. I could really see that one coming in under tonight.

Also the aforementioned MN playing DAL who played little in defesnse on Sun afternoon and might want to step up the D tonight. The 74 though scares me.

We'll see

Pistol
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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axp59 said:
put me in the loony bin with you...I think this over is the POD...LOL

I just couldn't throw it out there because it defies all logic.
Click to expand...

Although not as drastic as Utah's metamorphosis, San Antonio is not the defensive juggernaut it once was; the younger players Poppovich is trying to integrate into the system come from offensive backgrounds and should not be deemed to be "lockdown defenders" - as the phrase goes: the game done changed. And two defensive stalwarts in Sloan and Poppovich wouldn't admit it explicitly, but the way their teams currently play quietly suggests that they have given the nod towards offense as well.

Don't buy into the deep-seeded myth that droning telecast personnel continually hammer over and over and over... About defense... 'Cause these teams execute an artificial brand of it at best. And against athletic squads such as Oklahoma City, San Antonio is at a decided disadvantage.

:mj15: -> San Antonio:Oklahoma City
 
axp59

axp59

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easterntimezone said:
Although not as drastic as Utah's metamorphosis, San Antonio is not the defensive juggernaut it once was; the younger players Poppovich is trying to integrate into the system come from offensive backgrounds and should not be deemed to be "lockdown defenders" - as the phrase goes: the game done changed. And two defensive stalwarts in Sloan and Poppovich wouldn't admit it explicitly, but the way their teams currently play quietly suggests that they have given the nod towards offense as well.

Don't buy into the deep-seeded myth that droning telecast personnel continually hammer over and over and over... About defense... 'Cause these teams execute an artificial brand of it at best. And against athletic squads such as Oklahoma City, San Antonio is at a decided disadvantage.

:mj15: -> San Antonio:Oklahoma City
Click to expand...

Nice ETZ. Thank you for this...OKC 23-13 away SAS 19-17 home
 
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Slicer

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JCWhy said:
Hey Slice,
How accurate has AccuScore been on NBA totals this year?
Click to expand...

Their historical numbers for the entire year puts them around 557-470 (54.2%)

Since Feb 21st they are 139-125-3 which is 52.65%.

Out of those:

Overs are : 40-41
Unders are: 99-84-3 (54.09%)
 
axp59

axp59

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pistol495 said:
Ax,

Similar situation last week with DET/MIA who played to 197 on an early Sun PM and then Monday night MIA played a low scoring stinker against MEM.

I cant explain it (perhaps because it simply coincidence) but the team has to adjust differently going from day to night.

Sun - Tue may hold the same trends.

I am looking at CHI playing two day games over the weekend and getting into some high scoring affairs. I could really see that one coming in under tonight.

Also the aforementioned MN playing DAL who played little in defesnse on Sun afternoon and might want to step up the D tonight. The 74 though scares me.

We'll see

Pistol
Click to expand...

Piston, this may be a good thing to backtrack if you have the time. Love to see if this made any money this year.
 
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barts185

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axp59 said:
man, i've read those allegations. something is not right. those trends he was pulling out of nowhere required serious resources well beyond my spreadsheets and the old guys I'm calling LOL
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Join the club. I'm just starting to find some things now that I found SDQL.

I saw someone comment that there's only 1 capper on the net with the resources to come up with the trends that he is talking about. Anyone know who that capper is, because I sure don't?


Back to SDQL - their weekly newsletter has pointed out some things that the books might not like.

Going to sound like a degenerate here, but I might starting laying the moneyline on large home favorites.


line<=-14 and site=home and season>=2005

who would have guessed that the one loss would be the Lakers to the Bobcats.

Also, not sure why they didn't just say ANY 14 or more point favorite since away favorites are undefeated as well, even if there are very few of them (and actually, 13 or more away favorites adds 2 games to the list). Closest away game was an 11 point win. For the home favorites, there have been a couple of close ones.

line<=-14 and site=home and season>=2005 and margin



I just recently got into some things with large moneyline favorites and still feel like a degenerate but really starting to believe they are undervalued in spots.

I'll throw this one out there for people to file away for future reference - in the first round of the NCAA tournament, I feel that large moneyline favorites are VERY undervalued.

I know it doesn't sound like a great thing to lay 30 or 40 to 1, but seriously, do you really think that Morehead state beats Louisville even 1 time out of 500? I will be doing a ML parlay on round 1 20 point plus favorites in the future (started this season). Since the NCAA went to the current format, this would have never lost. I think there was an 18 point favorite which lost a game at some time.
 
E

Eagle123

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Hi Ax, late night in HK again and almost time to :sleep:

Is ALT U the only play for tmr morning please?
 
Ools

Ools

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refs

refs

haven't scouted where they are today yet - but saw this in a covers article:

Unders in games officiated by Marc Davis: Seventy-two percent (25 of 41) of games with Davis on the whistle have stayed under the total, by far the biggest margin of any NBA ref. In contrast, Scott Foster and Joe Crawford are the NBA refs with biggest differential in terms of overs. Games with either Foster or Crawford have gone over the total 67 percent of the time.
 
Ools

Ools

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barts185 said:
Join the club. I'm just starting to find some things now that I found SDQL.

I saw someone comment that there's only 1 capper on the net with the resources to come up with the trends that he is talking about. Anyone know who that capper is, because I sure don't?


Back to SDQL - their weekly newsletter has pointed out some things that the books might not like.

Going to sound like a degenerate here, but I might starting laying the moneyline on large home favorites.


line<=-14 and site=home and season>=2005

who would have guessed that the one loss would be the Lakers to the Bobcats.

Also, not sure why they didn't just say ANY 14 or more point favorite since away favorites are undefeated as well, even if there are very few of them (and actually, 13 or more away favorites adds 2 games to the list). Closest away game was an 11 point win. For the home favorites, there have been a couple of close ones.

line<=-14 and site=home and season>=2005 and margin



I just recently got into some things with large moneyline favorites and still feel like a degenerate but really starting to believe they are undervalued in spots.

I'll throw this one out there for people to file away for future reference - in the first round of the NCAA tournament, I feel that large moneyline favorites are VERY undervalued.

I know it doesn't sound like a great thing to lay 30 or 40 to 1, but seriously, do you really think that Morehead state beats Louisville even 1 time out of 500? I will be doing a ML parlay on round 1 20 point plus favorites in the future (started this season). Since the NCAA went to the current format, this would have never lost. I think there was an 18 point favorite which lost a game at some time.
Click to expand...

once my book get to about 10 pt favorite - they don' offer the moneyline. Agree with the NCAA - nad NC vs Gonz ML and cashed easy
 
Ools

Ools

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Ools said:
haven't scouted where they are today yet - but saw this in a covers article:

Unders in games officiated by Marc Davis: Seventy-two percent (25 of 41) of games with Davis on the whistle have stayed under the total, by far the biggest margin of any NBA ref. In contrast, Scott Foster and Joe Crawford are the NBA refs with biggest differential in terms of overs. Games with either Foster or Crawford have gone over the total 67 percent of the time.
Click to expand...

non in philly game tonight, but our crew there is a combined 70-86 to the unders! Nice!
 
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