NBA WED 040109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Hank55]

Holy cow Hank, I miss your numbers brother. I used those everyday as a benchmark to compare my numbers against.

Welcome, what do you mean no one let you know? Really? We'll you're here now and that's all that matters. Bad card for me today. 9 games and nada. I'm tailing the thread consensus today.

You got anything pal?

Nothing yet. My numbers are:
Tor/Orl 201.5
Char/Bos 185
Det/NJ 183
Lakers/Milw 204.5
Wash/Mem 201
Mi/Dal 201.5
Hou/Phoe 230
Sac/GS 244
NO/LAC 200

 

[axp59]

yea, I did not put up much of a fight at all this year - went on an early 4 game skid then stopped posting and started winning so I just left well enough alone - we're superstitious fellows - congrats!!

LOL, oh we sure are

 

[BillyBatts]

FatDan, your POD is the over in WAS/MEM?

Could be a good play, especially with this trend toward the end of the year, with 2 crap teams with nothing to play for, there isnt much Defensive intensity. Gonna run some numbers myself now.

Just a thought. After watching the Jazz get run out of the building last night and the number soared over the total, does anyone have any stats about playing a b2b the next day after playing MY, GSW, Pho, or Sacramento? Thinking the "tired leg" syndrome might apply more the next day after playing one of thse up tempo teams, especially here at the end when team are alittle on the tired side as it iis, thanks. Also maybe some stats about teams that got beat by 25+ the previus game and are faves the next, like the Nets tongiht?

 

[axp59]

Nothing yet. My numbers are:
Tor/Orl 201.5 196

Char/Bos 185 180

Det/NJ 183 183

Lakers/Milw 204.5 199

Wash/Mem 201 192

Mi/Dal 201.5 192

Hou/Phoe 230 212

Sac/GS 244 233

NO/LAC 200 187

Let's see what we have

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore as of 11:37am EST:

Magic 13.4 and 200
Celtics 10.9 and 183.1
Pistons .7 and 183.9
Lakers 9.4 and 204.2
Grizzlies .2 and 199
Mavs 7.2 and 199.4
Suns .3 and 222.9
Warriors 8.8 and 240
Hornets 6.5 and 192.3

 

[Hank55]

Maybe Tor/Orl U 203.5
Det/NJ U 186.5
Wash/Mem U 203

 

[BillyBatts]

What do you guys think about the Clippers tonight? They play alot better at home and the line has raiised to 4 for The Hornets. West doesn't look like he's gonna play tongiht, and I could see a huge letdown and night off for New Orleans tonight. Thoughts?

 

[BillyBatts]

Maybe Tor/Orl U 203.5Det/NJ U 186.5
Wash/Mem U 203

Nice, my 2 leans on totals. Love to hear that.:thumb:

 

[axp59]

Hank/Ax/Accu

Tor/Orl 201.5 196 200

Char/Bos 185 180 183

Det/NJ 183 183 184

Lakers/Milw 204.5 199 204

Wash/Mem 201 192 199

Mi/Dal 201.5 192 199.5

Hou/Phoe 230 212 223

Sac/GS 244 233 240

NO/LAC 200 187 192.5

 

[Hank55]

Accuscore as of 11:37am EST:

Magic 13.4 and 200
Celtics 10.9 and 183.1
Pistons .7 and 183.9
Lakers 9.4 and 204.2
Grizzlies .2 and 199
Mavs 7.2 and 199.4
Suns .3 and 222.9
Warriors 8.8 and 240
Hornets 6.5 and 192.3

Slicer, have you used Accuscore for a while and how has it worked out for you?

 

[Slicer]

Slicer, have you used Accuscore for a while and how has it worked out for you?

I've been tracking it since Feb 21st. I use it to spot variances first and foremost and then go about my capping style.

I breakdown the variances into categories to keep track of developing trends etc.

I posted some annual figures in yesterday's thread. It tends on point spread predictions to be around 50% (though it went like 1-8 yesterday or something like that)

However on the O/U's it is pretty good, Overs are 50% and unders are pushing 55% which is my primary use for it.

I did track conference play only in NCAA and am tracking the tourney's and it's 50/50 in tourneys but in conference play there were some major trend developments that led to some long streaks of winning consistently. Considering I jumped in on the $79 special for annual subscription, it has more than paid for itself and I like having the extra tool to reduce my capping load each day.

 

[jagerfury]

Killersports NBA OU Trend of the Week

Killersports NBA OU Trend of the Week

Don't know if any of you guys look at this, but I recieved an email news letter with their OU trend of the week;

The Clippers are 0-9 OU (-20.0 ppg since Novemeber 15, 2003 at home when less than 50% of their baskets were assisted for two straight games.

Operative tonight against NO

Wish I looked this email over yesterday instead of this morning. They had CHA ATS vs. the Lakers.

 

[bleedingpurple]

AXP

AXP

Are you guys saying that you guys are better at MLB? Is that how you started and just went into the NBA? You guys looking to start on opening day? There are some really good cappers here during MLB.

 

[BillyBatts]

I have the Memphis-Washington game capped at 191. Total is at 203.5 right now. Some trends to support.........plus remember this is 1st game back off a long road trip for thr Grizz, which usually affects the offense.

Under is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game

Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-2 in Wizards last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.


These scare me, the lack of defense when 2 shitty teams meet, factor.

Over is 20-6-1 in Wizards last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Over is 14-6 in Grizzlies last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

 

[jlippens]

Billy: the last part is exactly that should scare you, as you mention. It's likely to be even worse as these aren't just teams that are generally disinclined to play defence, it is worse.

I've said it before (including in this thread), so I'll let it go. I would have real difficulty pulingl the trigger on the under here.

 

[axp59]

Are you guys saying that you guys are better at MLB? Is that how you started and just went into the NBA? You guys looking to start on opening day? There are some really good cappers here during MLB.

Most of us here started doing this for the NBA. I personally need the help in the NBA since it's so tough to cap. I like to think my game is MLB and we have a few cappers here that also prefer the MLB. I think it's a great way to bank some cash for the NFL and have a little extra on the side to pay some bills. I mostly play ML dogs and unders. Hate to pigeon hole myself like that but I have to be honest with myself.

Looking forward to opening day but I'm going to shut it down for the first month to get my feet wet and WATCH games.

 

[BillyBatts]

Jilpens...I totally understand. There was something that popped out to me, that I thought I would share. The numbers I use when capping a game, alot of it is season team ppg, both offense and defense.

When researching, I noticed today that the Bobcats, and the Pistons have the EXACT same numbers!! Last week, Washington played these 2 teams in back to back games........the over/under was only half a point off difference, at tipoff. 191 to 191.5, both finsihing with very similar final scores.

Anyway, tonights opponent, Memphis, is avg almost identical amount on offense to these 2 teams, but is giving up almost 5 points more per game. That should've had the total set at 196 in my opinion. But it opened at 202, and is alll over the place on the boards, ranging from 201-203.5.
Still think there is value, based on the fact I think the Grizz score below thier season avg tonight,, 1st game back from the road trip.



Here is the lines from the 2 games I mentioned above


03/28/09 DET L 96-98 W 4 O 191
03/25/09 CHAR W 95-93 W 6.5 U 191.5

 

[Slicer]

Concur with Ax, i typically wait 3 weeks before starting to bet baseball, by then most teams have min 15 games under their belt and performance can be evaluated, most importantly pitchers performance as most starters will have 3-5 starts under their belts by then.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Concur with Ax, i typically wait 3 weeks before starting to bet baseball, by then most teams have min 15 games under their belt and performance can be evaluated, most importantly pitchers performance as most starters will have 3-5 starts under their belts by then.

I like to go over in first few weeks, batter are hot off the spring training and pitchers findning their flow. Huge value on big dogs and overs in hitters parks. :SIB

 

[easterntimezone]

Sorry to ask, but can anyone provide betting %age breakdowns for sides (didn't see a separate thread) concerning today's slate (thus far) - particularly interested in Miami/Dallas and New Orleans/Clippers.

Thank you!

kurby