NBA WED 102809 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

hope this helps

L3 seasons

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[easterntimezone]

ETZ,
always love the commentary. I read a book over the summer on how to insult people in such a nice way they don't even know it. I'm starting to think you're not a big fan of the Lake Show but more often than not, you're on point. Keep 'em coming my friend.

Here's my question. Are the Lakers "capable" of punishing teams? The west has been traditionally "SOFT".

Showtime in the '80s really spoiled the legacy for successive squads - they always provided an honest effort and couldn't be accused of lolly gagging.

That particular unit - Magic, Kareem, Worthy, Cooper, Scott - actually was capable of "punishing" when you also factor in Rambis, Kupchak, and Mychal Thompson (who may have been the best one-on-one defender against McHale owing to the familiarity spawned from their University of Minnesota pedigree); capable of playing against some of the more rugged squads from the East of the time, that may have been the last unequivocal juggernaut from out West.

Van Gundy's Houston tenure may merit a mention only b/c he imported that ragged, walk-it-up, pound-it-into-the-key mentality that he used to great effect w/ the Knicks. Completely foreign to the Western Conference.

 

[t-mook]

Wow thanks for all the numbers AXP much appreciated!!

 

[Slicer]

1-2 on the year (-120)

All $100 get your feet wet type plays:

Spurs/Hornets U 186.5 (my number is 176)
Clev/Tor U 192.5 (my number is 186)
Phx -2.5 (my number Phx -7)
Orl/Phi Under 193.5 (my number 182)

BOL gents :0corn

 

[pkkingster15]

Guys,

I love the Spurs under and the Cavs under, and actually had locked in both last night, but why Detroit? I have this game capped at Memphis by 4. I'm not sure about the Pistons rotation yet, and I know Tayshaun has been held out of most of the preseason due to his toe injury. The frontline of the Stones is still sitting at Charlie V and Kwame, with Ben and Wilcox off the bench. I don't have any illusions that Charlie can guard very many PFs in the NBA, and although I hate him as a player, Zach Randolph can score.

Any notes?

 

[Eagle123]

BOL to us Ax

 

[axp59]

That particular unit - Magic, Kareem, Worthy, Cooper, Scott - actually was capable of "punishing"

As a C's fan from the 80's, don't I know it. My hatred for those Lakers turned to respect as I've matured. Man, those LA and BOS teams could give these current guys a run for their money.

 

[axp59]

Wow thanks for all the numbers AXP much appreciated!!

That's what were here for bud. I trust you'd do the same. BOL pal.

 

[axp59]

1-2 on the year (-120)

All $100 get your feet wet type plays:

Spurs/Hornets U 186.5 (my number is 176)
Clev/Tor U 192.5 (my number is 186)
Phx -2.5 (my number Phx -7)
Orl/Phi Under 193.5 (my number 182)

BOL gents :0corn

I'm getting caught with my pants down on some of these numbers. I gotta stop dickin around. I'd forgotten how fast paced the NBA is. I can usually gauge the direction these numbers are moving but my eye haven't caught up yet.

BOL Slice.

 

[axp59]

Guys,

I but why Detroit?
Any notes?

Bro, most of my own analysis this early in the season is based on trending. Meaning I'm letting the books cap for me and playing off past numbers. I understand where you're coming from. Maybe why I didn't pull the trigger on this one. Even though it signals a DET play for me, the signal is very weak. Barely above a lean but nonetheless it calls for a DET play. Maybe a cue to sit this one out brother.

 

[axp59]

BOL to us Ax

Eagle, you find an offsore yet. Your local is raping you buddy. This is a no win situation you are in my friend.

 

[CoFred]

Ax I just locked in the Toronto U192.5 for 1/20 unit, would you still take the NYK at +5 for 1/20u?

 

[ari]

Greetings Ax - I joined the group late last year - good to see you again my friend. I have not seen JoeShmoe around yet -- but hope to.

$ seems to be pouring in on the Tor/Clev Over - up to 193 now at Matchbook. I may let the public $ keep pushing it up and then join the good fun in the Under call. I like these stats to back you call. BOL this year...
* Under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in Toronto.
* Under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

My leans for today! (I won't play it)

Pacers @ Hawks O204
Cavs @ Raptors O192
Bobcats @ Celtics O181.5
Suns @ Clippers U218
Rockets @ Warriors U213.5
Jazz @ Nuggets O209



BOL :mj06:
Joe

 

[axp59]

Ax I just locked in the Toronto U192.5 for 1/20 unit, would you still take the NYK at +5 for 1/20u?

I would have gone to +4 with this if that helps.

 

[axp59]

Greetings Ax - I joined the group late last year - good to see you again my friend. I have not seen JoeShmoe around yet -- but hope to.

$ seems to be pouring in on the Tor/Clev Over - up to 193 now at Matchbook. I may let the public $ keep pushing it up and then join the good fun in the Under call. I like these stats to back you call. BOL this year...
* Under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in Toronto.
* Under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.

Like tose number ARI. Good to see you my friend. BOL

 

[axp59]

My leans for today! (I won't play it)

Pacers @ Hawks O204
Cavs @ Raptors O192
Bobcats @ Celtics O181.5
Suns @ Clippers U218
Rockets @ Warriors U213.5
Jazz @ Nuggets O209



BOL :mj06:
Joe

Someone talk me out of the UTA/DEN O209. I'm liking this alot as my late night action. Anyone with me and Joe on this one?

 

[pkkingster15]

Ax,

I appreciate the insight on the Detroit game. Again, I'm not as much a trends guy, so I always love to hear your opinions.

 

[easterntimezone]

Someone talk me out of the UTA/DEN O209. I'm liking this alot as my late night action. Anyone with me and Joe on this one?

Recall last season that all of the cliched impressions of the Jazz as a tough defensive unit were put to rest - Sloan has adapted to the offensive-orientation of the league and while they may still exert the occasional defensive effort, Utah looks to have placed greater emphasis on repetition of its offensive sets.

Eclipsing 209 won't be a problem for these 2 offensively-driven teams - any nonsense about altitude gets chucked out the window as well given that it's Utah heading into Denver (usually more of a psychological issue since Denver's announcers/PA system trumpet the debilitating effects of being that far removed from sea level, furnishing an easy excuse for teams that turn in a sorry performance).

Already placed a small wager on the U in the Cleveland/Toronto affair, will likely do so on the Knicks @ +5 and see how those fare before proceeding w/ this contest - if still @ 209, then it's an attractive proposition.

 

[axp59]

Ax,

I appreciate the insight on the Detroit game. Again, I'm not as much a trends guy, so I always love to hear your opinions.

I promised myself no full unit plays until Thanksgiving. I hope I can keep my discipline and refrain from placing 15 action plays on any given day. We all have a little gambler in us to be doing this shit in the first place.:shrug: