good luck this year, Nolan!
can be seen here for daily updates:
http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan.htm
NFL WEEK 1 ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE
Line: Titans by 1
Total: 37.5
Comments: It remains to be seen if 2001 was just a temporary off-year for the Titans, or was last year's disappointing 7-9 SU record (including just 3 home wins after being one of the NFL's best home teams for several years) a sign of more bad things to come? Tennessee should find out the answer to this question very quickly, as they play against one of the NFL's best teams at home in their season opener. I normally don't like to use last years data coming into a new football season, but in this case there has been VERY LITTLE roster turnover on either team. 19 of 22 starters are back for a very talented Eagles team, and Titans come into the new season much healthier than the last and every key player basically the same. Both coaching staffs have also remained stable. Despite the similarities, there are some striking statistical differences that one should bear in mind. While both offenses put up mediocre numbers in 2001 (about 20 PPG), Philadelphia's defense was (and remains) FAR superior to the Titans. Eagles allowed .8 (note the decimal) average yards LESS per play last season. That's nearly a full yard on every single play! Eagles stingy defense also allowed 12 fewer points per game -- a remarkable contrast between these two teams. Eagles pass defense is clearly one of the NFL's best, and for this reason I expect Titans to struggle scoring points. However, Eagles DB T. Vincent may be out for this game (or play with injury). Eagles are also somewhat vulnerable on defense against the run (Eagles were a mediocre 18th in yards allowed last season). So, if the Titan's big OL can gain some momentum and open holes for RB's George and Floyd -- Tennessee will stay in this game all of the way and could win. I'm also wary of the Eagles woeful lack of weapons on offense. This group of WRs is arguably one of the weakest in the league (how they can collect a paycheck with a clear conscious is beyond me). Under these circumstances, and based on a line set essentially at picking the game winner, I see no justification for playing either side. While I do not like either team, a compelling case could be made for the UNDER. First, we are going along with a strong recent trend that early season games tend to be lower scoring than mid-season average. Also, since neither offense shows much of a deep pass threat, we can expect lots of ball control from both running games and time-consuming drives. I do have a very slight lean to the UNDER based on a total of 37.5 (the half-point is key). However, the best number I can find right now is 37 flat -- which makes me pass with caution. I'm also bothered by the fact that Tennessee has gone OVER in 10 of their last 13 games -- primarily because of an AWFUL pass defense. Titans upgraded that area in the off-season, but many questions still remain. Another reason why the Titans have been a great OVER recently is because linesmakers over-reacted and dropped the totals on Titans' games last year (with good reason -- they had the NFL's best defense in 2000). Now, the "correction" has already been made and game totals on Titans' games are back to the mid- to high-30s. The fact this total is right at a key number on 37 tells me the linesmakers have done their job well. That point seems obvious, since neither the line nor total has moved all week -- an indication that the money coming in on this game is about evenly split.
Final Decision: NO PLAY
NY JETS at BUFFALO
Line: Jets by 3
Total: 40.5
Comments: The public is grossly overreacting to the Jets impressive pre-season performance and perfect 4-0 record. Trends show that a good run in pre-season does NOT usually translate into a positive carryover into the regular season. In the season opener, the mediocre Jets open on the road as a division favorite against a team that was mostly competitive in their games last season and which has upgraded talent in several key areas (especially at QB). Division home dogs are routinely solid bets, and the Bills' position as a target for a wager is enhanced here by getting 3 points (the "3" is key -- at 2.5 this is a much weaker play). I like the fact that Bills coach Williams now has a full season under his belt. Although I have never been a big fan of QB Bledsoe, he does bring a boost of confidence to his new team, and now has something to prove in a new system. Bledsoe is also intimately familiar with the Jets from his days as a Patriot, which I think adds even more weight to the Bills as the choice. Add the fact that Buffalo has a MUCH BETTER group of receivers -- WRs Moulds, Price (free agent pick-up), a good pass-catching back Centers, and TE Reimersma -- than Bledsoe worked with in New England, and the Bills have enough weapons to stretch the Jets defense. It will be vital for Bills RB T. Henry to have a decent game, which I believe WILL happen as the Jets will have to respect the deep threat provided by All-Pro WR Moulds and Reimersma across the middle. Jets have some major question marks with SEVEN new starters this season, in addition to QB Testeverde's history of self-destruction (he ranks as one of the NFL's most inconsistent QBs). New York offensive coordinator Paul Hackett is calling the plays for the Jets this season, who certainly ranks in the lower echelon on NFL minds. Clueless Hackett hasn't had an original offensive concept in his head since his days in the late 80s with the Cowboys. Jets have also tinkered a great deal with their OL coming into this season (two new starters) and apparently will open up the offense at the cost of providing less pass protection for shaky Testeverde -- which could make things interesting. Finally, a wager on Buffalo plays into the contrarian system touted above (Angles #1 and #2), where a last-place team is playing against a playoff team. On the downside -- Jets have dominated Buffalo recently (4-1 ATS last five meetings). One final development has been the move on the total from 38.5 up to 40.5. With RB Martin carrying much of the load for the Jets, I'm not sure why this number moved up (the more carries Martin gets, the lower the final score should be). If RB Henry can get 20 carries, I suspect this game be close and low-scoring. But the best play here in taking Buffalo plus 3 points. In case you still have any doubts -- remember it was the Jets that knocked Bledsoe out of the game early last season and effectively changed the entire course of Bledsoe career because of that injury. I believe this adds even more to Buffalo being the more motivated team, as the home division dog capturing a key number (3).
Final Decision: PLAY BUFFALO +3
(Note: Buffalo is also a Goldman play -- see below)
PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Line: Redskins by 7
Total: 43.5
Comments: I recommended taking Arizona plus the points nearly two months ago -- which I now see was a mistake. I should have waited before making that wager. At the time, I expected the line to drop from +6 down to 4 or 5, but instead it moved the other direction as the squares are all over Washington. This makes me love the Cardinals even more now, especially since we are capturing a key number (7) which essentially means the Redskins need a TD plus one more score to cover. I don't see that happening. In fact, I look for a possible Cardinals upset here versus the over-hyped Redskins. Arizona was an excellent road team last season, 6-1-1 ATS away, and a respectable 9-6-1 overall ATS (which essentially means the public UNDERVALUES this team). I realize Arizona has some major liabilities, particularly with their pass defense and lack of a running game. But the burden here in heavily on the Redskins to not only win the game, but cover a large margin at home -- with a new coach, new offense, new defensive coordinator, and new starting QB. Think of that idea again and let it sink in -- a new head coach, a new offensive system, a new defensive coordinator, and a new starting quarterback. Since when does unproven QB Shane Matthews deserve being installed as a 7-point favorite versus a fairly decent opponent (Cards were 7-9 SU last season). Powerful trend also suggests betting AGAINST new NFL head coaches in their first game. Washington has dropped their last six straight home openers. Another factor -- Redskins have some serious questions with their kicking game. For reasons previously expressed I am sticking with my play at ARIZONA +6 and adding yet another play at ARIZONA +7 as a BEST BET. Side Note: Total dropped from 47 down to 43.5 as more contrarians are jumping on the fade Spurrier bandwagon. Line is also perilously close at some offshores to dropping to Washington -6.5 I expect this will happen by game time.
Final Decision: PLAY ARIZONA +6 (first released in mid-July)?..PLAY ARIZONA +7 (BEST BET)
can be seen here for daily updates:
http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan.htm
NFL WEEK 1 ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE
Line: Titans by 1
Total: 37.5
Comments: It remains to be seen if 2001 was just a temporary off-year for the Titans, or was last year's disappointing 7-9 SU record (including just 3 home wins after being one of the NFL's best home teams for several years) a sign of more bad things to come? Tennessee should find out the answer to this question very quickly, as they play against one of the NFL's best teams at home in their season opener. I normally don't like to use last years data coming into a new football season, but in this case there has been VERY LITTLE roster turnover on either team. 19 of 22 starters are back for a very talented Eagles team, and Titans come into the new season much healthier than the last and every key player basically the same. Both coaching staffs have also remained stable. Despite the similarities, there are some striking statistical differences that one should bear in mind. While both offenses put up mediocre numbers in 2001 (about 20 PPG), Philadelphia's defense was (and remains) FAR superior to the Titans. Eagles allowed .8 (note the decimal) average yards LESS per play last season. That's nearly a full yard on every single play! Eagles stingy defense also allowed 12 fewer points per game -- a remarkable contrast between these two teams. Eagles pass defense is clearly one of the NFL's best, and for this reason I expect Titans to struggle scoring points. However, Eagles DB T. Vincent may be out for this game (or play with injury). Eagles are also somewhat vulnerable on defense against the run (Eagles were a mediocre 18th in yards allowed last season). So, if the Titan's big OL can gain some momentum and open holes for RB's George and Floyd -- Tennessee will stay in this game all of the way and could win. I'm also wary of the Eagles woeful lack of weapons on offense. This group of WRs is arguably one of the weakest in the league (how they can collect a paycheck with a clear conscious is beyond me). Under these circumstances, and based on a line set essentially at picking the game winner, I see no justification for playing either side. While I do not like either team, a compelling case could be made for the UNDER. First, we are going along with a strong recent trend that early season games tend to be lower scoring than mid-season average. Also, since neither offense shows much of a deep pass threat, we can expect lots of ball control from both running games and time-consuming drives. I do have a very slight lean to the UNDER based on a total of 37.5 (the half-point is key). However, the best number I can find right now is 37 flat -- which makes me pass with caution. I'm also bothered by the fact that Tennessee has gone OVER in 10 of their last 13 games -- primarily because of an AWFUL pass defense. Titans upgraded that area in the off-season, but many questions still remain. Another reason why the Titans have been a great OVER recently is because linesmakers over-reacted and dropped the totals on Titans' games last year (with good reason -- they had the NFL's best defense in 2000). Now, the "correction" has already been made and game totals on Titans' games are back to the mid- to high-30s. The fact this total is right at a key number on 37 tells me the linesmakers have done their job well. That point seems obvious, since neither the line nor total has moved all week -- an indication that the money coming in on this game is about evenly split.
Final Decision: NO PLAY
NY JETS at BUFFALO
Line: Jets by 3
Total: 40.5
Comments: The public is grossly overreacting to the Jets impressive pre-season performance and perfect 4-0 record. Trends show that a good run in pre-season does NOT usually translate into a positive carryover into the regular season. In the season opener, the mediocre Jets open on the road as a division favorite against a team that was mostly competitive in their games last season and which has upgraded talent in several key areas (especially at QB). Division home dogs are routinely solid bets, and the Bills' position as a target for a wager is enhanced here by getting 3 points (the "3" is key -- at 2.5 this is a much weaker play). I like the fact that Bills coach Williams now has a full season under his belt. Although I have never been a big fan of QB Bledsoe, he does bring a boost of confidence to his new team, and now has something to prove in a new system. Bledsoe is also intimately familiar with the Jets from his days as a Patriot, which I think adds even more weight to the Bills as the choice. Add the fact that Buffalo has a MUCH BETTER group of receivers -- WRs Moulds, Price (free agent pick-up), a good pass-catching back Centers, and TE Reimersma -- than Bledsoe worked with in New England, and the Bills have enough weapons to stretch the Jets defense. It will be vital for Bills RB T. Henry to have a decent game, which I believe WILL happen as the Jets will have to respect the deep threat provided by All-Pro WR Moulds and Reimersma across the middle. Jets have some major question marks with SEVEN new starters this season, in addition to QB Testeverde's history of self-destruction (he ranks as one of the NFL's most inconsistent QBs). New York offensive coordinator Paul Hackett is calling the plays for the Jets this season, who certainly ranks in the lower echelon on NFL minds. Clueless Hackett hasn't had an original offensive concept in his head since his days in the late 80s with the Cowboys. Jets have also tinkered a great deal with their OL coming into this season (two new starters) and apparently will open up the offense at the cost of providing less pass protection for shaky Testeverde -- which could make things interesting. Finally, a wager on Buffalo plays into the contrarian system touted above (Angles #1 and #2), where a last-place team is playing against a playoff team. On the downside -- Jets have dominated Buffalo recently (4-1 ATS last five meetings). One final development has been the move on the total from 38.5 up to 40.5. With RB Martin carrying much of the load for the Jets, I'm not sure why this number moved up (the more carries Martin gets, the lower the final score should be). If RB Henry can get 20 carries, I suspect this game be close and low-scoring. But the best play here in taking Buffalo plus 3 points. In case you still have any doubts -- remember it was the Jets that knocked Bledsoe out of the game early last season and effectively changed the entire course of Bledsoe career because of that injury. I believe this adds even more to Buffalo being the more motivated team, as the home division dog capturing a key number (3).
Final Decision: PLAY BUFFALO +3
(Note: Buffalo is also a Goldman play -- see below)
PHOENIX at WASHINGTON
Line: Redskins by 7
Total: 43.5
Comments: I recommended taking Arizona plus the points nearly two months ago -- which I now see was a mistake. I should have waited before making that wager. At the time, I expected the line to drop from +6 down to 4 or 5, but instead it moved the other direction as the squares are all over Washington. This makes me love the Cardinals even more now, especially since we are capturing a key number (7) which essentially means the Redskins need a TD plus one more score to cover. I don't see that happening. In fact, I look for a possible Cardinals upset here versus the over-hyped Redskins. Arizona was an excellent road team last season, 6-1-1 ATS away, and a respectable 9-6-1 overall ATS (which essentially means the public UNDERVALUES this team). I realize Arizona has some major liabilities, particularly with their pass defense and lack of a running game. But the burden here in heavily on the Redskins to not only win the game, but cover a large margin at home -- with a new coach, new offense, new defensive coordinator, and new starting QB. Think of that idea again and let it sink in -- a new head coach, a new offensive system, a new defensive coordinator, and a new starting quarterback. Since when does unproven QB Shane Matthews deserve being installed as a 7-point favorite versus a fairly decent opponent (Cards were 7-9 SU last season). Powerful trend also suggests betting AGAINST new NFL head coaches in their first game. Washington has dropped their last six straight home openers. Another factor -- Redskins have some serious questions with their kicking game. For reasons previously expressed I am sticking with my play at ARIZONA +6 and adding yet another play at ARIZONA +7 as a BEST BET. Side Note: Total dropped from 47 down to 43.5 as more contrarians are jumping on the fade Spurrier bandwagon. Line is also perilously close at some offshores to dropping to Washington -6.5 I expect this will happen by game time.
Final Decision: PLAY ARIZONA +6 (first released in mid-July)?..PLAY ARIZONA +7 (BEST BET)
