odds at cris

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Smurph I'll list reason for wagers after I get them all in and you might not think it so dumb--have a few more I'm looking at and will probaly go on them immediately after wednesday debate--got to let all the emotion run rampant 1st--however doubt lines on 3 above get any better.
Look at line movement in 04 thread--hit most before they turned south or if some cases were taken off the board.

 

[Agent 0659]

Not smart. Dems already up 2-0 there.

:fit01:

 

[smurphy]

Smurph I'll list reason for wagers after I get them all in and you might not think it so dumb--have a few more I'm looking at and will probaly go on them immediately after wednesday debate--got to let all the emotion run rampant 1st--however doubt lines on 3 above get any better.
Look at line movement in 04 thread--hit most before they turned south or if some cases were taken off the board.

You obviously missed the joke. Agent and Hippo have already voted. You are down 2-0.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I got it Smurph--in addition it is very liberal state however only 4% black to go with the libs--and GW carried by 4 and 7% last 2 elections if memories serves me correctly--(charts at office) I'll take the 3/1 in a heartbeat.
You definately got the liberals and blacks on bandwagon--but you always do little diff there on vote tabs--will be portion of dems voting gop for 1st time--and HH comment on 90% turnout a plus--it nots the base if 90% is correct. We'll see'
would expct these odds tobe cut in half-SOON.

 

[Hard Times]

ODDS AT THE GREEK

ODDS AT THE GREEK

10/13 =TODAY AT 4 PM

101 - DEMOCRAT -525

102 - REPUBLICAN + 405

103 - ANY OTHER RESULT + 6050

 

[smurphy]

I got it Smurph--in addition it is very liberal state however only 4% black to go with the libs--and GW carried by 4 and 7% last 2 elections if memories serves me correctly--(charts at office) I'll take the 3/1 in a heartbeat.
You definately got the liberals and blacks on bandwagon--but you always do little diff there on vote tabs--will be portion of dems voting gop for 1st time--and HH comment on 90% turnout a plus--it nots the base if 90% is correct. We'll see'
would expct these odds tobe cut in half-SOON.

God bless you to be an accurate judger of blacks in Colorado.:00x11

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

To not include facts of 90% of element in election might be PC Smurph but not prudent statistical evaluations.

I lost my 1st election wager posted here this year (H over O) because I did not include racial predjudice in primaries. I knew 90% of blacks were Dems--but had no idea they vote 90% O in Dem election--increasing their 12% spot in national election --to above 20% in primaries.
The rev told me--I just wouldn't listen.

 

[smurphy]

Yes, 90%. Got it.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Don't have account there yet but my fav bet at BetUs http://www.betus.com/sportsbook/poli...ting-odds.aspx
and will count it as selection--
Will take Rebs -150

US State Betting 2008 Indiana
Tue, Nov 04, 2008 EST Time Rot # Team Pointspread Moneyline Total Team Total

10:00a
126 Republican
-150
127 Democrat +110

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

IE Do you know if Betus has any reciprocal agreement with any books that I could transfer funds to them?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

taking the REBs + 135 @ BETUS

US State Betting 2008 North Carolina
Tue, Nov 04, 2008 EST Time Rot # Team Pointspread Moneyline Total Team Total

10:00a
154 Republican
+135
155 Democrat -180

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

taking Mo and Rebs at +185 @ BETUS

US State Betting 2008 Missouri
Tue, Nov 04, 2008 EST Time Rot # Team Pointspread Moneyline Total Team Total

10:00a
148 Republican
+185
149 Democrat -250

 

[IE]

IE Do you know if Betus has any reciprocal agreement with any books that I could transfer funds to them?

not that i know of, sorry.

 

[MadJack]

If you rely on pollling data--best place is real clear politics--where you get cross reference of all polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Will keep you away from false illusions of partisan polls like above

...

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I'm taking an objective view Jack--

Had broom job in 08 on states(link above)--and another 10-0 broom job predicting the O primary wins on all 20% black population angle.

Expecting to win 3 of 5 of state wagers so far which would bode well considering odds.

Would have preferred to have been more balanced as in 04 with dem/gop picks about 50/50
--but you got to go against over exuberant emotions IMO--and they look all one direction to me.

 

[Another Steve]

At my Book........Wow

Republican is ELECTED +6.35
Democrat is ELECTED -7.05

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

odds today at Wsex

Series Name Sell Buy
DEMOCRAT 54 59 -143
REPUBLICAN 41 46 +117
OTHER 0 3 +3233

will hedge half of wager on Mcain @ +225
with O @ -143
Will wait on other half--

Ticket#:691068
Sep 05 03:00 PM
INTERNET / -1 Jul 15 09:06 AM
TNT
PARTY TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY
[10001] REPUBLICAN PARTY +220





----------------------------------------------------------------------

Will hedge other half of wager with electorial vote prop @ Cbet and split it between two wagers

Obama Wins 311-338 9/4
Obama Wins 270-310 10/1

Pres wager summary
1 unit gop to win @ +225
-----------------------------------------
1/2 unit dem @ -143
1/4 unit-Obama Wins 311-338 9/4
1/4 unit-Obama Wins 270-310 10/1

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will condence all 2008 political wagers in this thread and grade tomorrow morning.
One wager completed but not in this thread was
Dem primary wager of Hilliary over Obama-LOSS
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
pres wagers-
Pres wager summary
1 unit gop to win @ +225
-----------------------------------------
1/2 unit dem @ -143
1/4 unit-Obama Wins 311-338 9/4
1/4 unit-Obama Wins 270-310 10/1
-----------------------------------------------
state wagers
Virginia - Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2008 US presidential election
Republican
Democrat 11/04/08(12:00 ET)
Republican +175


New Mexico - Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2008 US presidential election
Republican
Democrat 11/04/08(12:00 ET)
Republican +350

Colorado - Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2008 US presidential election
Republican
Democrat 11/04/08(12:00 ET)
Republican +300

US State Betting 2008 Indiana
Tue, Nov 04, 2008 EST Time Rot # Team Pointspread Moneyline Total Team Total

10:00a
126 Republican
-150
127 Democrat +110

US State Betting 2008 North Carolina
Tue, Nov 04, 2008 EST Time Rot # Team Pointspread Moneyline Total Team Total

10:00a
154 Republican
+135
155 Democrat -180

US State Betting 2008 Missouri
Tue, Nov 04, 2008 EST Time Rot # Team Pointspread Moneyline Total Team Total

10:00a
148 Republican
+185
149 Democrat -250
__________________________________
Got much better odds than most of these later at diff books but will use these for grading purposes.
IMO
Best Bet is NC
Best longshot Virginia

 

[smurphy]

Good gamblers don't vote with their heart. You have let emotion dictate your wagers. Not good.:nono:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Good gamblers don't vote with their heart. You have let emotion dictate your wagers. Not good.:nono:

Your absolutely correct Smurph--if you'll note last election states wagers were split for Kerry and Bush
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=154642

I try to use emotion to my advantage and with huge media bias find me one state that went to Dems last 2 elections that have favorable odds on Mac?
If I wanted a high odds lock I take O and DC.

No wagers were on emotion--all were wagered on criteria of of voting trends for states and what impact I think black vote will have in reducing those margins--look at voting out come past 2 elections-
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

All selections at time of wager were within criteria of 5% margin of polls and previously voting GOP.
No emotion involved on my part--just analyzing facts/data and choosing those within the parameters.

Worst selection was New Mexico--if had to do over would have not have selected. Reason is data on hispanics leans has done about face.

Thought Mac intially would increase 44% of hispanic GW pulled in 04--now I see it more like 35%--and if that turns out to be the case Mac will lose. He needs to pull at least 40% to have chance with blacks going over 90%.

Like I told you after 04 elections--you'd get yours in the future--when minorities became majority at polls you will have a one party system.