Being a die hard Pats fan, I'll try to keep this objective...
The thing the Pats do better than any team is prepare tactically. Your defense (Minn) stops the run, they'll pass on you ALL game. Your team does 4 things well, but likes one in particular, they'll take that one aspect away, and force you into making bad mistakes. They are not a "run" or a "pass" team, a coverage or a blitz team. They adapt unlike any other team, and the league knows it, they've just generally been unable to catch up to them.
This team is starting to click, and betting against them as of late is an exercise in burning cash. Even when I think it's a tough spot, it's difficult to bet against BB, and then when and if you do, you feel like an ahole, cuz they prove you wrong again.
That being said, this Colts D is probably closer to that of 2 yrs ago, and not last years unit which certainly wasn't the '85 Bears, but was a little more stout than their previous D's. Brady should be able to find some weaknesses, and most likely we will see a heavy dose of Dillon/Maroney.
Belichick will not allow the D to fold like a tent like Denver did last week, and if Peyton starts picking on any particular DB, they will adjust.
Yes, NE hasn't played anyone, but they certainly made a statement against Minn. Cincy has seemed to fold, and the rest were division games, and yes, they got beat pretty good by Denver. If Indy had last years D out there w/one more year expereince, I might lean that way, but they are banged up all over the place, and have regressed, giving up most of their YDs on the ground. Indy has had its share of close games, most notably a 1 pt home loss to Tennesee, as a 17 pt chalk. Both teams boast a 5-2 record against the number.
The line opened at -1 Patriots and after Monday night the gravy train pushed it to -3. This number should hold steady and be bet dead. The O/U is hanging around the 48.
A lot of off field stuff here as well. The Pats listed 17 on their injury report, and the Colts quickly followed suit. A few wks ago against the Jets Bill Polian grabbed a Jets official to ask about the sound system. BB caught wind of this, and filed an official complaint to the league asking that his players and officials be watched after citing "safety issues."
This game may get out of hand. NE 8-1-1 Last 10 ATS. The under is 4-6 in their last 10. I'll lay the 3 on the Hometown Pats.
