yes, I enjoy spending a little bit of my money every day on sports betting! :0074
Players have to realize there?s an inherent streakiness in sports betting. Even the best bettors in the world go on cold spells and strong money management keeps you in the game to endure rough patches.
One has to be willing to accept mistakes and adapt or even replace a gambling investment model based on new data that you have researched.
Create a gambling budget and stick to it...have fun with this budget, don't let the budget make fun of you.
I am always learning or trying to learn these above traits from certain people at Pinnacle, and also Todd and Tommy.
Best of luck checkmate.
IE,
I appreciate what you are saying, but dispute your comment as to the "inherent streakiness in sports betting". I used to think that a person could get hot or be on a roll and it appears, based on their recent record, to be that way. But after some thought, each game, each turn of the card or roll of the dice, has its own inherent chance of winning or losing. It knows no history.
There is no magic. One can study a game inside and out and yet the outcome is uncertain. Thats why, over the long haul, whoever has the odds in his or her favor will end up on the positive side.
Eddie
A bit of clarity here counselor... You are confusing the "hot hand fallacy" (correctly stating that each bet is an independent statistical event which "knows no history") with IE's observation of naturally occurring streaks in any random or stochastic process, of which gamblers need to be aware of - such inevitable and statistically probable streaks will wipe you out if you do not practice "strong money management".
In other words, when IE asserts "there?s an inherent streakiness in sports betting", he might as well be saying "there?s an inherent streakiness in flipping a coin".
If you flip that coin 100 times, you have slightly greater than 54% probability of getting a streak of 7 heads or tails at least once. In other words, it is more probable than not that simply the expected distribution of random events will provide you a streak of 7 in a row, in this sample size. (This fact sheds some light on betting sports trends, I might add).
Most people tend to underestimate the chances of such streaks occurring, and this lamentable tendency will severely damage the bankrolls of those bettors who do not practice rigorous and precise money management. Even if the bettors consistently hit over 50% of their bets, that skill just slightly prolongs experiencing the inevitable losing streaks.
Eddie and IE are both correct. Over the long term the one who has the odds on his side will win. But, the long term is made up of streaks. Winning, losing, short and long. To answer the question that started this thread. Yes, I wish I could.
IE,
There is no magic. One can study a game inside and out and yet the outcome is uncertain. Thats why, over the long haul, whoever has the odds in his or her favor will end up on the positive side.
Eddie
Yes, the best psychological antidote to these dispiriting losing streaks is keeping records. If you know over time, in the long run, you have a winning percentage in betting - these odds on your side will eventually produce a ever growing bankroll. You just need to keep at it - provided you managed your money well enough that you still have a decent bankroll!
opcorn2
