So you like fading consensus?
- Thread starter MadJack
- Start date
Ok I might sound like an idiot but does the fact it is a contest site mean the info is accurate? So they track the wagers?
I have no clue what wagerline is so I apologize for my ignorance.
I'm sure the figures are pulled from the software where the players make their selections. What would their reason be to change the numbers? I'm not a believer in consensus betting either, I'm just posting these numbers here because that's one of the popular sites that people get this information from.
http://contests.covers.com/Handicap...ks.aspx?sport=1&date=10/25/2015&select_type=0
That makes perfect sense.
Thanks.
And I was not trying to be an asshole, I am just always a bit skeptical when I read stats from a Sportsbook about percentages of wagers made that's all.
Now Wagerline/Covers is not a Sportsbook they track info so yes, why would they lie about those numbers, makes total sense.
The sportsbooks don't mind providing people with information, pretty much any information people want. They couldn't give a rats ass what people are betting. They want people to bet because in the long run they are getting all the money because they have the edge.
Is the point of this thread to show that fading the public is worse than 47%? If so, then tailing the public is the right strategy, no?
- Dec 31, 2006
- 2,937
- 12
- 0
I think Jack wanted to see how it played out, fading the public in general.
What these numbers mean is that this season, up to this point, when 65% or more wagerline contestants are on a side they have been right about 63% of the time.
Major sportsbooks, knowing we at MJ's are killing them by fading consensus and recognizing Jaek's ability to relate to the masses, have hired him to throw us off the scent. Don't be discouraged. Fade away!
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Yeah, I'm just posting results since using consensus seems to be a popular angle around here. I have no idea how to use this information to make money and I've tried over the years. It's very streaky.
Picking and choosing doesn't work, I found that out.
The Mover uses it to fade consensus when the line moves the other way. I seriously think there's something to that angle but I haven't tracked it.
Basically I'm just messing around and if somebody finds it useful then the thread was worth it.
It sure looks like going along with the majority has paid off big this season so far but like I said before, I don't use this information anymore.
Smurphy suggests that I eliminate the FCS games but that's picking and choosing again. Bah!
Follow w/ AdamC
Why The Public Side Is Often The Winning Side
Ok, time to be honest.
No one really knows what the public is and no one really knows if they are part of the public or not. Sure, information regarding how customers are betting on a game at a particular sportsbook is more accessible than ever before. But, thinking a bet you made has an increased or decreased chance of winning simply because more or less people are betting on the same team as you is ludacris. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a part of the public. In-fact, you will need to be on the public side at some time in order for the market to move and make your position profitable.
The market lifespan of an NFL game typically lasts seven days (primetime games will change that). The vast majority of NFL markets are ?crowd driven markets?. This means that the bettors and the amount of money being bet determines how the market moves, when the market moves and where the market will close. For NFL betting sake, we can refer to these markets as public driven markets.
Here is an example of how a public driven market acts during its lifespan:
----
1. Displacement
Displacement refers to an initial event that shocks the market. In NFL betting, 9 out of 10 times the initial shock will be injury news or a change in team personnel.
2. Opportunities
The displacement, or initial event creates profitable opportunities for bettors who act quickly. Often times betting will be focused directly solely around the displacement, while other opportunities are ignored such as halves, props and futures.
3.) Expansion
As news spreads and becomes widespread, money expands the market.
4.) Frenzy
The expansion causes more money to enter market which in turn causes the line to move to an extreme.
----
Knowing how the public acts, and how public driven markets react, it should be clear to see that when a bet is made is far more important than who is betting on which team. At the end of the day, success is determined on timing an execution.
The ideal entry point into a public driven market is immediately after the displacement. The price available at this time will likely never be available again during the markets lifespan. If you can make a bet at this time, then the other bettors entering the market will do all the work for you. The more bets that come in, the more the line will move and the more valuable your position will become.
The ideal exit point is immediately after the frenzy. The market has reached an extreme and bettors have the option to hedge or remove their liability to leave a risk free bet. Very few people who bet the moneyline ever consider betting more initially with a goal of removing their liability after a price move to create a smaller risk free bet. It is a strategy in the NFL betting world that should be practiced far more often.
Within a public driven market is also a contrarian entry point which comes after the frenzy.
Buying at the basement price or selling at the peak price is an ideal practice, but can be very difficult to judge with consistency. Something contrarian minded bettors don?t always realize is while their entry point may be based on contrarian thinking, the market has to rally behind that position in order to make it valuable.
Public is a powerful word in sports betting. It is also a word that is very misunderstood and misused. If you focus on the when rather than on the who, you will have far more success with your bets long term.
Why The Public Side Is Often The Winning Side
Ok, time to be honest.
No one really knows what the public is and no one really knows if they are part of the public or not. Sure, information regarding how customers are betting on a game at a particular sportsbook is more accessible than ever before. But, thinking a bet you made has an increased or decreased chance of winning simply because more or less people are betting on the same team as you is ludacris. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a part of the public. In-fact, you will need to be on the public side at some time in order for the market to move and make your position profitable.
The market lifespan of an NFL game typically lasts seven days (primetime games will change that). The vast majority of NFL markets are ?crowd driven markets?. This means that the bettors and the amount of money being bet determines how the market moves, when the market moves and where the market will close. For NFL betting sake, we can refer to these markets as public driven markets.
Here is an example of how a public driven market acts during its lifespan:
----
1. Displacement
Displacement refers to an initial event that shocks the market. In NFL betting, 9 out of 10 times the initial shock will be injury news or a change in team personnel.
2. Opportunities
The displacement, or initial event creates profitable opportunities for bettors who act quickly. Often times betting will be focused directly solely around the displacement, while other opportunities are ignored such as halves, props and futures.
3.) Expansion
As news spreads and becomes widespread, money expands the market.
4.) Frenzy
The expansion causes more money to enter market which in turn causes the line to move to an extreme.
----
Knowing how the public acts, and how public driven markets react, it should be clear to see that when a bet is made is far more important than who is betting on which team. At the end of the day, success is determined on timing an execution.
The ideal entry point into a public driven market is immediately after the displacement. The price available at this time will likely never be available again during the markets lifespan. If you can make a bet at this time, then the other bettors entering the market will do all the work for you. The more bets that come in, the more the line will move and the more valuable your position will become.
The ideal exit point is immediately after the frenzy. The market has reached an extreme and bettors have the option to hedge or remove their liability to leave a risk free bet. Very few people who bet the moneyline ever consider betting more initially with a goal of removing their liability after a price move to create a smaller risk free bet. It is a strategy in the NFL betting world that should be practiced far more often.
Within a public driven market is also a contrarian entry point which comes after the frenzy.
Buying at the basement price or selling at the peak price is an ideal practice, but can be very difficult to judge with consistency. Something contrarian minded bettors don?t always realize is while their entry point may be based on contrarian thinking, the market has to rally behind that position in order to make it valuable.
Public is a powerful word in sports betting. It is also a word that is very misunderstood and misused. If you focus on the when rather than on the who, you will have far more success with your bets long term.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,790
- 635
- 113
- 75
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,790
- 635
- 113
- 75
+21 units INCLUDING JUICE..
time to cash out...:shrug:
or......ride with "Joe Public" for a little longer..
he and his friends will take you anywhere you want to go
time to cash out...:shrug:
or......ride with "Joe Public" for a little longer..
he and his friends will take you anywhere you want to go
Jack where can I see the % of public is on a game? I know it works good on NFL games.
Trying to find a good link. Thanks in advance.
