Taking Spurs to win it all! (VERY BIG)

Bombs

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Everyone counted the Pistons out last year, buried them about 20 times. A long way to go, plenty of time for them to turn it around.

Don't jade yourself with the results of a game of a few games, this playoffs is far from over and the Pistons still have a great shot.
 

Scott4USC

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:em71: :em71: :em71:

Spurs and Detroit advance to Conference finals. :clap:

It def. wasn't easy and much more difficult than I originally thought. Both teams won critical game 5 at home and both teams closed out opponent on road in game 6. Both teams are battle tested and that alone gives me a lot of confidence that Spurs will be playing Detroit in the finals.

Spurs prob. had the toughest playoff opponents in first 2 rounds. Nuggets (hottest team in NBA heading into playoffs) and Sonics who were without 2 star players but were playing lights out as a team and created a lot of matchup problems.
Suns beat bad Griz squad and a good Maverick squad. 2 teams who are nothing like Spurs.

Detroit had prob. the 2nd toughest playoff opponents in first 2 rounds. Sixers with Iverson and the veteran Indiana squad. I underestimated Indiana against Boston and they are a very good playoff team with ton playoff experience. Miami swept Wizards and Nets. :rolleyes:


4 teams left and I have 2 of the 4 teams. Both teams don't have home court but I think that is a blessing. Miami will be without shaq in game 1 or not so 100% rusty shaq. Detroit very good chance in splitting first 2 games or maybe even winning both. I will not be surprised if Detroit beats Miami in 5 games but I will predict 6. Miami is untested and has not faced adversity. This will hurt them against Detroit especially with Shaq not being healthy AND rusty.

I be a lot more confident in Spurs if Duncan didn't twist his ankle. :cursin: I think he will be ok but who knows. Injuries happen and hopefully this isn't serious. If Duncan is healthy, Spurs should split first 2 games @ Suns and win series in 6 games IMO. Suns are not a deep team especially with big men. Unlike the Mavs, Spurs WON'T settle for jump shots all night long. Duncan, Ginoble, and Parker will force a lot of fouls on Suns who are not a deep team and a team who plays there starters BIG minutes. Oh yeah, Suns are not a "great" defensive team either.

Spurs vs Pistons in finals! :)
 

Scott4USC

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:spotting: :spotting: :spotting:

Spurs advance to finals!

:spotting: :spotting: :spotting:

I am confident Spurs can beat either Heat or Pistons but it won't be easy. I think Spurs have better chance against Heat but I have Pistons big to win the championship. Obviously I am rooting for Detroit.

The rest will certainly help Duncan and Ginoble. As much as I prefer having games 3,4, and 6 at home, Spurs having home court in finals will be beneficial because they may be "tad" rusty after week off so playing home in game 1 should ensure them of a victory. Especially if opponent was in long series and is tired. Spurs would get game 7 at home if it is tight and gives me ton of room to hedge (if I choose too).

Rest those ankles Duncan and I think Ginoble will benefit greatly from layoff. He plays with ton of energy. He will be in tip top shape for finals.

Spurs beat hottest team in NBA (Denver), Sonics who were depleted but played at high level in games 3,4,5, and 6, and beat the Suns who had most wins in NBA and won 3 straight road games against Suns! :clap:


Time to boast...... :mj07:

If Pistons make it to finals, then that means I had picked the 2 teams in NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP and 2 teams in NBA CHAMPIONSHIP! That be sweet! :)

If Spurs win it all, it will mean in 1 year I won big $$$ on College Football National Champion (USC), MLB Champion (Red Sox), NCAA Hoops Champion (UNC) and NBA Champion (Spurs). What a run with ZERO future losses on teams to win it all. I currently have Yankees and USC to win it all this year pending but not for $1000's.

One can only hope and now it def. is a realistic probability. :)
 
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pt1gard

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scott, would you have hauled this from archives had you lost?

you took chalk, toot your horn loud, I hedged with chalk, not as much as I shoulda, lets say were are brilliant ... and taking last year's champ was equally climbing a thin branch ... and i think you took about 8 teams in NCAA's, that's a big self touting safety net

"when a man can hit a home and have someone else circle the bases then he has found peace"

you wonder why people have trouble accepting you?--let your record speak for itself ... you took all the faves and lucked out with red sox, leave it be ... and for god's sake, spell the argentinian's name right just once .. BTW Horry has drastically improved at 34, funny how bad he used to be, i think he's only nba player ever to get better after 32 :rolleyes:
 
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Sun Tzu

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You would rather have games 3,4 and 6 at home? You talk all this shit and dont even know the format for the NBA Finals?

And generally speaking the 2-3-2 format has guaranteed that the team with home court wins it all. 21 years now, and Detroit last year is the only team to win all three middle games at home, and Detroit in 2004, Chicago in 1993 and 1998, and Houston in 1995 are the only teams to win without home court advantage in the finals.
 

Scott4USC

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pt1gard said:
scott, would you have hauled this from archives had you lost?:

I always posted in my threads after I win or lose. Some big losses I had posted were Celts beating Pacers, Michigan beating Ohio St. (last year), Oklahoma St. beating Texas (NCAA HOOPS last year) and those are the only big loses I can think of. I posted right after each game! So don't understand your question? Of course I would have posted in this thread after Spurs lost series. I have nothing to be ashamed of. I always leave it out there.

you took chalk, toot your horn loud, I hedged with chalk, not as much as I shoulda, lets say were are brilliant ... and taking last year's champ was equally climbing a thin branch ...

If I took Chalk, who cares. All my futures were +vig not minus vig. So I got very high return especially when you add them all up with ZERO future losses. No longshots and most of my winners were the favorites. I bet to win so I could care less if my teams are longshots or favorites. Its all about winning $$$.

pt1gard said:
BTW Horry has drastically improved at 34, funny how bad he used to be, i think he's only nba player ever to get better after 32 :rolleyes:

I am a Laker fan and I did not like Horry when he was on Lakers. I really like how Horry has played so far in playoffs for Spurs. I call it as I see it. Don't know why it bothers you that I disliked Horry when he was on Lakers and like Horry now on Spurs.

Although one thing bothers me. Horry has now missed 3 layups in crucial minutes against Suns in last 2 games. He better not miss layups against Pistons/Heat. :)


Sun Tzu said:
You would rather have games 3,4 and 6 at home? You talk all this shit and dont even know the format for the NBA Finals?

And generally speaking the 2-3-2 format has guaranteed that the team with home court wins it all. 21 years now, and Detroit last year is the only team to win all three middle games at home, and Detroit in 2004, Chicago in 1993 and 1998, and Houston in 1995 are the only teams to win without home court advantage in the finals.

I completely forgot they changed format for finals. Thanks for informing me. I agree this format helps the home team dramatically. Why did they change it? Do teams play every other day or back to back nights?
 

CryBoy

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Scott4USC said:
If I took Chalk, who cares. I bet to win so I could care less if my teams are longshots or favorites. Its all about winning $$$.
Agree! It's all about making money.
 

pt1gard

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scott, since you like facts so much, I went back and checked on how horrible Horry was with your lakers, when you musta been app. 15 watching him when he first started playing... so lets look at what i found ...

lets start with his atrocious series in 2003 when he shot .319 and went 2/38 treys (earlier I sighted that as horrible and an anomaly, which it was, similar to West's nightmare finals in '72 vs Knicks the year the Lakers won their first crown, and Zeke shot .376 fg % for entire playoffs)

Now, you have insisted many times how much more important the playoffs are than the regular season, and most would agree with that, so not even delving into Horrys unreal contributions for HOU's two crowns, where he popped in treys like no big since Bird, played stellar D, and rebounded more than his share, lets now look into his efforts with the lakers ...

[Post season scoring avg. listed first then reg season)

'97 6.7/ 9.2 (only payed 22 games with LA, traded)
'98 8.6 / 7.4
'99 5.0 / 4.9
'00 7.6 / 5.7
'01 5.9 / 5.2
'02 9.3 / 6.8
'03 5.6 / 6.5



now just looking at that, you can see its fairly amazing to me a "role" player's stats increase on a team where Shaq and Kobe took app. 66% of LA's shots ... but maybe thats just me, check around and see how many other role (bench) players #s increase in playoff action in history of league

in the '98 post seaon, Horry's ratio of shots per scoring avg. was 1.62--an unreal number that Kobe never came close to and only one player in history of game fnished career with more economy

Horry also had years where he shot ... 43%, 35%, 42%, 36% and 39% of his treys in post season, ungodly numbers for a 6'10 sub with the ability to run the lane, play great D and rebound (he did have 11 rbs last night--as well as 5 assists and 3 steals) leading the spurs at 34 y-o... I doubt those skills were lessened as a younger player, course when you were were in HS maybe you appreciated those type of things) In Horry's LA playoff career he's avg. 2.2 off bds a game and nearly 3 one season; figuring a winning effort by a team in Hubie Brown's opinion is 12, then Horry as a role player is a huge contributor in that vital category...

Horry's FG% one might argue was not high with LA, but seeing he began to take nearly 1/3rd of his shots as treys, it was more than respectable, the only star i could find in like number was reggie miller in which 1 in 3 career attempts were treys ...

Even Horry's assists climbed in playoffs, surpassing 3.1 per game during three diff Laker seasons, up from reg seaosn 2.3 a game in his career--that my friend is a remarkable number any way you cut it for a role playing fwd.

As far as running the court, tipping balls out, taking charges, playing defense, again, I defer to the subjectivenes of your 15 y-o memory to ascertain that Horry didnt contribute in those subtle, winning ways

the reason Im spending time with this is b/c I have always respected Horry's game and realized what a true winner he is and was in all ways, even tho i despised the Lakers ... every pundit and coach refers to him as one the most clutch players ever to lace them up in post season ...

so if you have your usual proof to dispute his contirbutiions to your lakers (albeit his 2/38 season) I would enjoy reading your FACTS other than your memory

gl to deet
gregg
 
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Scott4USC

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Good post pt1gard and I enjoyed reading it.

Horry was great in Houston and is great in SA. When he went to Lakers, he somewhat changed his body. He got bigger because he was going to have to play PF and guard great western forwards. I think that took away some of his game. He def. was worse playing on Lakers than Rockets.

On defense Horry SUCKED! Power forwards for west ate him alive. But I give part of blame to Shaq because he was lazy. On SA and Rockets he had help defense. You can't really blame fatigue because he usually played only 2 quarters for Lakers.

On offense Horry made all the clutch game winning shots. That was great and he made me $$$. But all those game winning shots were WIDE OPEN and usually result of Kobe or Shaq getting them for him. Horry often disappeared on offense for 3 quarters and would come alive in 4th for Lakers. That is not someone who impresses me. That is not someone I want on my team. If Horry was more productive for 4 quarters, Lakers would not need him to make those game winning shots. With Spurs we are seeing Horry make impact for 4 quarters just like he did with Houston. When Horry was a Laker, he got wide open shots all game long because of Kobe/Shaq.

Horry was not a $hitty player for Lakers, but I do not think he was a great role player. He was solid at best.

All in all, I would have liked to seen more consistency and better defense out of Horry while he was a Laker. Then I would think he was a great role player.
 

fla

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Scott:

Great call on the Spurs so far. If the Heat get there with a healthy Wade, hedge like a mother. Miami is the better team. Should be fun. GL.
 

Scott4USC

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fla said:
Scott:

Great call on the Spurs so far. If the Heat get there with a healthy Wade, hedge like a mother. Miami is the better team. Should be fun. GL.

Thanks FLA but I don't know what Heat have done to make me worried about them beating Spurs. Why do you think they are the better team?

Spurs have been FAR more impressive.

Spure beat Nuggets, who were the hottest team in NBA coming into playoffs. Very tough home team as well.

Spurs beat depleted Sonics squad to overachieved in games 3, 4, 5, and 6 and played extremely well.

Spurs beat Suns, who were the #1 team in NBA in season wins and #1 scoring team in NBA. On top of that, Amare and Nash had CAREER playoff games and "might" never repeat those performances. They were that good! Simply put, they never missed.

I think its safe to say that Shaq and Wade cannot top what Nash and Amare did. Not even close. Suns role players are hell of a lot better than Heat role players and Spurs shut down Suns role players. I think its safe to say Spurs will be able to defend Heat role players easier. Heat play a lot better defense but nowhere near as good offensively.

Heat swept Wizards and Nets (BIG DEAL) and lets say they beat Pistons in 6 or 7 games. Beating Pistons is big deal, but Pistons clearly are not playing well offensively. Might have to do with Miami but I do not think it has everything to do with Miami on defense. Maybe it does. Spurs are MUCH better offensive team than Pistons. Much better.

****SERIES DIFFERENCE MAKER****

If you notice, Heat do not defend well against players attacking basket. VERY slow team down low. More to do with Shaq being older and not 100% healthy. Not good at rotating down low and help defense.

Spurs have Duncan, Muhammad, Parker, and Ginoble who attack basket. Duncan, Parker, and Ginoble are 3 GREAT players who attack basket and will attack basket ALL GAME LONG!

If Shaq and Alonzo are having foul trouble against Pistons (who IMO are not good team attacking basket), they are gonna have HUGE trouble against Spurs who LOVE to attack basket. Shaq cannot move Duncan like he can move Wallaces. Duncan will be guarding shaq in 4th quarter where Shaq has not been dominant. Spurs have big bodies to throw at Shaq too!

I am biased towards Detroit winning East and cheering for them, but I "think" Spurs have easier time beating Heat than Pistons. If I had no $$$ on Detroit, I would be cheering for Miami.

X-Factor #2 is Spurs will outcoach Heat. That is a given!
 
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fla

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I think you are overestimating the competition in the West. Who plays defense out there? Nuggets? no. Sonics? no. Suns? ugh. Be careful about inflated statistics. Good arguments on your side. However, Shaq owns Duncan. And I will take Wade eight days out of the week against Manu the Flopper. Heat in six.

GL, bud.
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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Scott, take this for what it's worth

It's not the Heats fault that they have played nobody in the playoffs. Blame that on lack of talent in the NBA. They swept NJ and the Wiz. Two average teams at best, but they swept them. what more could they do to impress anyone. it's not their fault the lower tier teams in the East are bad.


The pistons series is far from over, but the Spurs struggle against teams with a true dominant center. Wade is playing just as good as Kobe did in last years playoffs (better probably) and Shaq is playing worse because of injury (but not by much). The role players are basically the same although I give an edge to Miami of this year. Payton and Malone were names, not players last year. Eddie Jones is better than any role player the Lakers had last year and the Lakers won 4-2 against SA.

I know its hard to compare teams with previous years, but Shaq being on both teams makes it at least plausible for arguments sake.

IMO,SA "will" beat Detroit if they were to get by Miami. SA "might" get by Miami if they play. They will be favored and by every right should be. They have home court.

If I didn't have a healthy wager on Miami in the ECF, I would be rooting for Detroit so I could lay coin on SA in the finals confidently. But I can't.

I agree that SA will be favored over anyone from the east. I also think the ECF is far from over. I just think that although there is little doubt IMO that SA would beat Detroit, there is a t least some doubt whether or not Miami if healthy could win the series. Don't forget the NBA execs will be rooting like hell for Miami. They are so ready to christen Wade the poster-boy of the NBA for years to come. Don't think that doesn't mean something.

GL with your wagers. Just not your detroit to beat Miami one.
 

Scott4USC

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fla said:
I think you are overestimating the competition in the West. Who plays defense out there? Nuggets? no. Sonics? no. Suns? ugh. Be careful about inflated statistics. Good arguments on your side. However, Shaq owns Duncan. And I will take Wade eight days out of the week against Manu the Flopper. Heat in six.
GL, bud.

I agree East plays better defense but we are comparing Spurs vs Heat/Pistons defense. West plays a lot better offense than East and there are some really bad offensive teams in East which skews the Eatern Defenses numbers. Spurs still have to play defense against great offenses in West. In these playoffs they had to defend Nuggets, Sonics, and Suns who all 3 are super offensive teams. HEat/Pistons will be much easier for Spurs to defend BUT also harder to score against.

Here is the deal. Spurs can attack teams in multiple ways. Down low, driving lain, outside shots, or 3pt shots. They can run or play half court. Spurs have depth and veteran team. Spurs have 3 players who realistically can score 20pts in every game. Miami has 2. Spurs have great coach that makes great adjustments and coaches well on gamedays. Very important. Take all that and add in the fact Spurs are prob. #1 defensive team in NBA with bodies to throw at Shaq.

Not in any way saying Heat have no chance at winning, but I think there is sooo much evidence/angles pointing in Spurs way that they should be heavy favorites to win series. What advantages do Miami have agaainst Spurs? I just see more ways Spurs can attack and beat Miami. Hopefully we don't find out and Spurs play Pistons! :)

Bowen might be the key player to win series for Spurs. He was key in stopping Marion who was like 2nd or 3rd team NBA. Heat do not have a Marion caliber player and Bowen should shut down anybody he defends with ease.

BleedDodgerBlue

I agree that SA will be favored over anyone from the east. I also think the ECF is far from over. I just think that although there is little doubt IMO that SA would beat Detroit, there is a t least some doubt whether or not Miami if healthy could win the series. Don't forget the NBA execs will be rooting like hell for Miami. They are so ready to christen Wade the poster-boy of the NBA for years to come. Don't think that doesn't mean something.

I agree Detroit is still in it but for arguments sake we are talking about SA/Miami matchup. I also agree Wade/Heat will get all calls. Heat has been getting to free throw line without players touching him. Amazing! Spurs beat Suns on road with Suns playing well AND refs calling the worst playoff game ALL year! Says a lot about Spurs because they got hosed by refs. (except got break with Duncan touching rim)

In game 1 against Detroit Wade did not get all this help from refs. How did Wade do? Games 2,3,4, and 4 refs been in Wades corner each game.

Spurs struggle against teams with a true dominant center.

Shaq can't play defense and his rebounding is horrible. Help defense for Miami down low is horrible as well. Not good when you are facing a Spurs squad who is great at taking ball to basket AND drawing fouls.

It's not the Heats fault that they have played nobody in the playoffs. Blame that on lack of talent in the NBA. They swept NJ and the Wiz. Two average teams at best, but they swept them. what more could they do to impress anyone. it's not their fault the lower tier teams in the East are bad.

I know, but it gives Spurs a lot more credibility than Heat. Spurs played well against Nuggest and that showed that Suns would NOT be able to run all over Spurs. It was good indication. Suns beat Griz and Mavs but that did not help Suns prepare for Spurs. Spurs will have to adjust to HEat defense vs Suns defense but Heat are nowhere near as good offensively and role players for HEat are nowhere near as good as Suns. Pistons can't defend anybody on Heat. I think SPurs will let Shaq/Wade get theres and concentrate on all Heat role players. Same gameplan they used against Suns and Heat do not have 2 players that will outperform Nash/Amare. NO WAY! I will say Wade/Shaq won't shoot better % than Nash/Amare! Miami has nobody to guard Duncan on outside and Duncan has week to heal ankles and get his outside shot going! Look for that! Duncan had Suns defender on him outside because Suns big men were more mobile. Often shot over someone from outside. If Shaq goes out to defend, who is down low protecting basket??? Shaq WILL NOT get back! If he does, automatic foul because he came late! :mj07: Shaq is not mobile. Ben Wallace from outside or Duncan??? :mj07:
 
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infinii

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"Zero future losses"

Exactly how do you figure that you have ZERO...ZILCH...NADA...SQUAT losses? Any 9yr old can tell you that when you bet on 3 teams and only one wins, that you lost two. I'm not going to take away from the fact that you win/won cash but don't go touting yourself like you have a 100% record.
 

Scott4USC

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infinii said:
"Zero future losses"

Exactly how do you figure that you have ZERO...ZILCH...NADA...SQUAT losses? Any 9yr old can tell you that when you bet on 3 teams and only one wins, that you lost two. I'm not going to take away from the fact that you win/won cash but don't go touting yourself like you have a 100% record.

Zero future losses was meant for the year as I stated in my post! I was only talking about this last year and on team(s) to win championship. In every sport I bet team(s) to win it all I have had the champion and profited greatly. Its quite amazing and I don't think it will ever happen again for me. That is why I boasted. I don't think too many have accomplished that and with those size wagers. I bet huge $$$ (for my standards) on these wagers. I was quite lucky and I realize my streak will eventually end. Although I have not cashed yet on the NBA finals and I ask for one more futures winner on Spurs. I'll accept a loss on my $500 to win $1200 Yankee bet! :) (lost value) I won't accept a loss on my $750 to win $1,875 on USC to win it all! :) (gained value)

In NCAA hoops I took UNC and Illinois as my money maker and the other 4 teams as hedge bets. Detroit in this years playoff was my hedge bet in case Spurs lost (as I stated). I don't profit if Pistons win it all. You only can take so many teams in a futures bet and only 1 team is going to win. If I have the winner, its a win win situation with zero losses as long as I profit. At least thats the way I look at it! When you take 3-4 teams to win it all, you #1 need to profit, break even, or cut losses dramatically if one of your teams win, but you know that only 1 team is going to win it all. If I have 3 teams to win it all and one of them does, do I have a 1-2 record? I don't think so. Its a 1-0 record as long as I profit and a winner!

The goal is to profit and that is exactly what I have accomplished in EVERY futures wager this year. Of course I hedged. I put some $1000's on OU ML against USC OB. Is that a loss? Its smart to lower your risk or minimize/guarantee profit. As long as you profit its a WINNER! Maybe to make you happy I should say, 100% profitable positions in future wager(s) in the following sports! :rolleyes:

Thanks for your concern infinii and hopefully I cleared things up! At least you see where I am coming from and BTW it is my thread and I have not posted any BS. All my picks are documented and hopefully some people jumped on board! Maybe you and I grade wagers differently. As long as we both profit at the end, that is what matters! Good luck handicapping! :thumb:

GO SPURS!
Go Pistons!
 
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Franky Wright

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Scott4USC said:
Shaq can't play defense and his rebounding is horrible. Help defense for Miami down low is horrible as well. Not good when you are facing a Spurs squad who is great at taking ball to basket AND drawing fouls.
Miami has nobody to guard Duncan on outside and Duncan has week to heal ankles and get his outside shot going! Look for that! If Shaq goes out to defend, who is down low protecting basket??? Shaq WILL NOT get back! If he does, automatic foul because he came late! Shaq is not mobile.

Can you say Alonzo Mourning :scared
If it were not for Spurs having home court, the series price would be even. Lets see how Wade comes out of this injury? That is key. Think you have a winner if its vs. the Pistons. But I would hedge a "Portion" if it was against the Heat, JMHO and GL :)
Franky
 

Scott4USC

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:spotting: :spotting: :spotting:

Pistons advance to finals!

:spotting: :spotting: :spotting:


Spurs vs Pistons in finals! :cool:

It can't get better than this!


Total Spurs bet:
$8,250 to win $14,570

Total Pistons bet:
$2,072 to win $10,777

Spurs win it all +$12,498 (profit)

Pistons win it all + $2,527 (profit)


:toast:

I hope others capitalized on this thread as well!
 
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