Round 4 play (2pts):
Graeme McDowell to beat Dustin Johnson +106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Point One: look at the history of players who held the lead heading into the final round of the U.S. Open. In 2009, Ricky Barnes shot 76 (finished 2nd); in 2008, Tiger Woods shot 73 (won via a playoff); in 2007, Aaron Baddeley shot 80 (finished 13th); in 2006, Phil Mickelson shot 74 (finished 2nd) and Kenneth Ferrie shot 76 (finished 6th); in 2005, Retief Goosen shot 81 (finished 11th). Only once has the 3rd round leader gone on to win the U.S. Open in the last five years and that was Tiger Woods; the average score of the pre-round leader on Sunday has been almost 77. Point Two: Johnson is not a proven finisher. A lot has been made of the fact that he has won the last two AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Ams, but he only won in 2009 because the final round was washed out and earlier this year, he shot 74 in the final round, breaking par on just two par-fives all day, and was gifted the lead when the previous leader, Paul Goydos, took nine on the 14th. Johnson has never held the 3rd round lead in any other event. The remaining points are that in the final round of a Major he has never even started in the top-20 previously, that he said that he will continue to hit driver off the tee today despite the forecast for winds to rise throughout the day (to over 20 kmh), and that he will have Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in the two groups ahead of him. As a result, I will be very surprised if he matches Tiger in 2008 and shoots 73 today, whereas a score in the 80s like Baddeley and Goosen is a distinct possibility if he drops a shot early on. I'm not sure that McDowell will be the player to win this event from three back, but his score should be much more predictable whereas Johnson looks set to follow the trend of recent U.S. Open leaders and struggle today.
Amazingly TIger is +3 on the day as well.. just some strange happenings.
He did what he had to do. Glad he won. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.McDowell +4 his last 9 and up.. JOKE
Round 4 play (2pts):
Graeme McDowell to beat Dustin Johnson +106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Point One: look at the history of players who held the lead heading into the final round of the U.S. Open. In 2009, Ricky Barnes shot 76 (finished 2nd); in 2008, Tiger Woods shot 73 (won via a playoff); in 2007, Aaron Baddeley shot 80 (finished 13th); in 2006, Phil Mickelson shot 74 (finished 2nd) and Kenneth Ferrie shot 76 (finished 6th); in 2005, Retief Goosen shot 81 (finished 11th). Only once has the 3rd round leader gone on to win the U.S. Open in the last five years and that was Tiger Woods; the average score of the pre-round leader on Sunday has been almost 77. Point Two: Johnson is not a proven finisher. A lot has been made of the fact that he has won the last two AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Ams, but he only won in 2009 because the final round was washed out and earlier this year, he shot 74 in the final round, breaking par on just two par-fives all day, and was gifted the lead when the previous leader, Paul Goydos, took nine on the 14th. Johnson has never held the 3rd round lead in any other event. The remaining points are that in the final round of a Major he has never even started in the top-20 previously, that he said that he will continue to hit driver off the tee today despite the forecast for winds to rise throughout the day (to over 20 kmh), and that he will have Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in the two groups ahead of him. As a result, I will be very surprised if he matches Tiger in 2008 and shoots 73 today, whereas a score in the 80s like Baddeley and Goosen is a distinct possibility if he drops a shot early on. I'm not sure that McDowell will be the player to win this event from three back, but his score should be much more predictable whereas Johnson looks set to follow the trend of recent U.S. Open leaders and struggle today.
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