USC will beat OU and here is why.......

[Scott4USC]

I am taking USC BIG in this game. I have multiple bets on USC and OU. If you add up all my USC futures bets, it comes out to 5k to win $18,100 for USC to win straight up. I have a lot of respect for OU, and I am not stupid so I hedged. I handicapped this game extensively to determine how much I would hedge. So here is how much I have on OU. I have wagers on USC not to win NC +170, OU +140, +130, and +120 and +3.5. OU to win straight up $5,600 to win $7,818! I also have $350 to win $284 OU +3.5.

So now you know how strong I feel about USC winning this game since I have a lot more money at risk on USC. I strongly feel USC will win this game. Only reason I do not have all of it on USC is the "experience" edge OU has over USC. This is an extremely young USC team which bodes well for the future and next year but not necessarily for the OB.

I have put my extensive analysis into 3 posts.

Post 1 Facts/Stats + opinion
Post 2 Team Position Breakdown
Post 3 Game Analysis

*Remember, this is my analysis and my opinion why I think USC will beat OU. I am not posting to make a case for OU to beat USC. As you can see, I hedged on OU as I think their is a chance for OU to beat USC. I also think you can make an argument for betting on OU. I just happen to feel USC will win this game from what I handicapped and from what I have been told about how the team has been practicing the last 10 days. Tom. I leave for Florida, but I think my hotel as internet so maybe I will log on somepoint and answer any questions someone might have.

Facts and Stats about OU/USC followed by my opinion

OU was taken down to the wire by 4 loss Okla. St. and 4 loss A&M on successive Saturdays, how can they hope to stop unbeaten USC?

OU trailed deep into the 3rd quarter against 7 loss KSU, how can they hope to beat the Trojans?

OU was outgained by 53 yards by 7-4 Texas Tech, how can they hope to keep up with the Men of Troy?

OU had a 14-10 halftime score against Kansas and only a 14-0 halftime score against Baylor Do you really think OU knows how to score in the 1st Q or 2nd Q against the USC defense?

Yes, you can make these similar arguments against USC but there is one glaring difference. USC started the year and still is a very young (only 2 returning starters on offense) and that is a huge reason why teams were able to hang with this "young" USC team. You can't say the same for OU since they are a "veteran" team AND they played so many home games to start the year. What is OU's excuse?

What did we learn? Seems like when OU runs into a decent team, they struggle despite having an overwhelming advantage in talent and
experience... why is that? OU was embarrassed vs the only decent d teams they played last year (KSU and LSU). What great defensive teams did OU play this year? Texas def. was the best defensive team OU played this year and they only put up 13pts. How many pts did Michigan score on Texas in the RB?

People like to talk about how USC is not physical or how weak Pac 10 play is vs other conferences. I assume many OU backers might feel USC is relatively soft compared to OU. Let me fill you in.

There aren't many teams in the country that can hang with USC's physicalness. If you need proof, why don't you ask the Auburn fans how physical USC was last year? Or the Michigan fans, who had to watch their quarterback get sacked nine times in one game, after having been sacked only 14 times all season. Ask Iowa how physical USC was. Ask Notre Dame if they haven't gotten their asses kicked up and down the past two years. Do not take OU because you think they are more physical or USC lacks physicalness because they play in the Pac 10.

Now lets talk briefly about coaching. USC will outcoach Chuck Long, just like LSU did last year. Carroll is more highly touted as a DC than Saban. Carroll had #1 defenses in the NFL as a DC (unlike Saban) and he runs the same schemes as Monte Kiffen @Tampa Bay (who many consider the #1 DC in NFL) Carroll was taught by Monte Kiffen and runs a hybrid of the 3-4 and 4-3 defense. A master at blitz schemes. USC has not run many blitz schems this year!

How disciplined/prepared was Stoops team in the Sugar Bowl last year? How about 11 penalties, a couple of interceptions by White, a 1.6 yards per rush average, and about 100 yards total through the air ought to do it! Yes I know White was injured and LSU defense was great. Just pointing out the facts!

Same thing LSU did last year - Carroll is going to have their OC confused & frustrated all night long.

*4 Interesting Questions for OU! USC answers are in red to the same questions if directed to USC.

1. Who would you say has been the best OC OU has faced this year? With the athletes to execute the gameplan? Tedford from CAL.

2. Which single player has given OU the biggest matchup problem this year? Prob. QB Randall from V-Tech (he played great) or maybe QB Rogers (but USC gave him dump passes all game so that is no huge accomplishment. He simply took what Carroll gave him and only scored 17pts)

3. Who has been the best QB OU has faced this year? QB Rogers from CAL

4. What if the answer to all three are on the same team (USC), with a pretty good D to go along with it, and the game won't be played in Norman? Peterson might replace Randall for USC, but nobody on OU would replace the others. You can't say the same for OU! Just read and answer the questions and I would be worried if I was OU.

*3 Interesting Stats Supporting USC!

The USC offense has faced 3 teams ranked in the top 25 in total defense (V-Tech, CAL, and OSU). OU has faced ZERO!

USC offense has faced 2 defenses ranked in the top 5 in pts allowed. OU highest ranked scoring defensive opponent was Texas at #14 followed by Kansas at #35.

USC has faced 8 teams ranked in the top 50 in passing offense vs OU having having faced 5 ranked in the top 50.

Consider this OU backers...

After the Orange Bowl win, USC will have defeated the B10 champ twice in OOC, gone 1-1 with our legit teams against B12, gone 2-0 against the sec, beaten a top 10 acc team.

People still queston USC and some even predict OU blowout.

Carroll has faced and beat....
#4 michigan, #3 iowa, #2 oklahoma , #7vt, #4 CAL, #6 preseason auburn, etc. etc. etc.

The hit list-
auburn
auburn
iowa
michigan
oklahoma
virginia tech

Plus, elite team cal this year
Pac-10 co-champ wsu in 2003
6-0 against rivals ND and ucla

the one team that got the best of USC -ksu (by 7 points!)

It's all one big accident, what USC has been doing, right?

Biggest loss of the PC era non-2001 (only fair, team was being assembled): 3 points!

USC's point losses under Carroll--- (4 vs top 15 ksu; 2 vs. #2 oregon on the road!; 5 vs. stanford; 3 vs. washington on road, last second FG; 11 vs. ND @ ND, was much closer; 4 vs. utah, ugly bowl game)
Legit USC teams losses-(7 pts. @ ksu; 3 @ wsu, OT; 3 @ cal, 3 OT)

OU 1)won't crush USC if they somehow win and 2)they are not going to win.

 

[Scott4USC]

OU/USC Position Breakdown

QB: push - Both QBs won Heismans because they understand their systems and make good decisions.

RB : OU - L. White isn't 100% for USC so advantage OU. However he will play and I think he will be effective.

OL: OU - although it is not because of talent, but experience. However, USC will get back Senior 350lb OL Drake who has missed the last 3 games. HUGE PLUS for USC! The true frosh replacing him was getting killed especially against UCLA.

TE: USC - HUGE ADVANTAGE with Byrd and Holmes at TE.

WR: push - the difference in experience level favors OU, but because SC sometimes adds Bush to the mix, it ends up a push. Plus USC was without Steve Smith (#1 WR) for most of the year so him being back 100% strengthens this group a lot.

O Coaching: USC - Norm Chow! Enough said.

DE: OU - the area I'm prob. most concerned about. However, if OU doesn't get great DE play, OU will lose!

DT: USC - the area I'm least concerned about.

LB : push - OU's are better against the run, USC's against the pass. USC does have 2 all american LB's.

CB: push - this is really close, and if Perkins is anything less than 100%, it tips to USC advantage in a real hurry. That frosh DB for OU has "not" been tested and that OU secondary has not been tested in their last 3 games against CO, Nebraska, and Baylor. USC DB's without question have been more tested facing 8 teams ranked in the top 50 in passing offense and 3 QB's who will be drafted higher than White.

Safety: push - this could turn to SC in a hurry if Bing has a good versus average game. He is overhyped in my opinion but nobody has more talent than him. He is inconsistent so I give this a push.

D Coaching: USC hands down. Pete Carroll is USC's DC, and the new/current HC for Ole Miss is the USC DL coach and assistant DC for USC and the LB's coach (Seto) turned down being a DC at d1 program (ole miss). However OU's D-coaching is great too but advantage USC!

Punting: USC - Malone is superb! Last year he would have won best punter in the country but he did not have enough punt attempts to qualify because USC hardly punted.

Place Kicking: push - both have their issues but USC kicker has been hot as of late. But he is streaky and up until this year he choked in every big game. I hate him! I "think" OU's kicker has yet to attempt a d1 FG. I may be be wrong. Bad move by Stoops if that is true. He should have been kicking against CO.

Kick Returns: USC ? USC is #10 in the country on kickoff returns vs OU being ranked #80. USC has Bush and Reed on KO Returns. Despite OU being ranked #80, I still think they are dangerous.

Punt returns : push - both Perkins and Bush are excellent but USC did average 4 more yards per punt return.

ST coaching: OU - SC's special teams have allowed too many long returns for my taste. The talent is there, but the execution is lacking. ST's allowed UCLA to hang with USC. Can't do that against OU. Plus USC doesn't even have a ST's coach.

Turnovers: USC - USC is better at causing and getting interceptions. Watch out Adrian Peterson. He is still only a freshman and USC is one of if not the best at stripping the ball. USC has a 1.17 ratio to OU?s .75 ratio.

Team Unit Breakdown

Offense: OU - (but not by much)
Defense: USC - (but not by much)
Special Teams: USC

 

[Scott4USC]

GAME ANALYSIS

In a nutshell.....

The major keys for USC is to put pressure on Jason White with "All-American" DT's Cody and Patterson, contain the run, keep a safety deep to take away the long ball (which is exactly USC's scheme). There is so much talk about how great the OU OL is, but nobody is talking about the great USC DL. I've watched plenty of OU games, and believe it or not, JW still panics under pressure (SC's D will pressure him, trust me), and he NEEDS lots of time to find his WR's (He locks onto a receiver). JW will get confused and cracked by PC's called defenses, guys will be coming from all directions (JW doesn't make quick decisions well).

OU's defense is very good but not great. Their dbs are not good in pass coverage, are bad in zone coverage, and can be run on. The fact that one dimensional teams like oklahoma state were able to run all over the field on them is just a small clue. On offense, USC will stick to what they do best, create mismatches. If OU is too stubborn to switch what they normally do (and yes Stoops is stubborn, and so is their OC Long), then they are screwed. They suck at zone which is the best way to contain Reggie Bush. OU can play man to man if they can get pressure without blitzing, which I think they will be able to do at times but not for the majority of the game. It should be interesting if they try to play bump and run against USC's WR's which would be the best thing for them, but having Steve Smith back for USC is HUGE in that regards as he has great hands and can catch in traffic. Lendale/Reggie SHOULD be able to keep the defense honest. While OU is a "balanced team" offensively, that does NOT translate into points as they score far less this year than they did last year which is very odd considering they had 10 returning starters on offense, PLUS Adrian Peterson. Honestly Peterson hasn't really scored many tds in games that are close or have meaning. White is good when he has 5-7 seconds to wind up and chuck the ball downfield, which he won't against USC.

*HUGE KEY*

OU has yet to face a truly balanced Offense, and besides Texas, what other Good defense have they played? Maybe OU's defense has put it together at the end of the season but you can't say that confidently knowing the last 3 teams OU has played are crappy offensive teams of Baylor, Nebraska, and Colorado. That's 3 shutouts for USC.

I think USC has faced better competition, and 3 future nfl QB's (that will be drafted ahead of JW). USC also has faced one of the best RB's in the country (Arrington) who plays on one of the best balanced offenses in the country. (CAL was healthy when they played USC) USC OL has faced 2 TOP DE's, Tuck (ND), Riddle (Cal), and that guy from VT is a stud (name)? Is Dan Cody that much better??? USC has played 3 tough DL's already this season, Cal,VT, and ND. Injured USC OL Drake will be starting, and USC should IMO, be able to give ML time to find his WR's/TE's/RB/FB. OU safeties DO bite, and get beat deep, so I expect to see some deep post patterns to Smith, off play action. I am confident USC has been tested in all areas, has OU?

Lets talk briefly about USC's defense.

OU has never seen a set of LBs who can cover the way USC's can. In the Pac 10, you need LB's who are great in pass coverage.

The USC CBs have seen far more intelligent passing games than OU's, they won't be off guard or anything, which is usually how teams consistently move the ball through the air. White's gonna have a lot of misfires as our CBs are right where they need to be.

As mentioned before, USC has an awesome DL.

Overall, USC has a very good defense that has consistently got the job done in every game this year. People will bring up the stats against the USC defense in certain games. Who cares about stats as long as teams don't score. USC doesn't allow teams to score. PERIOD!

When they give out trophies for the best passing defense, then maybe we'll take notice. Maybe you also noticed that USC's defense was the second-best in the nation at keeping teams out of the endzone. The object of the game is to score the most points, not prevent quarterbacks from completing passes.

*Stat Fun -- Running Against Oklahoma*

Although I think USC's passing attack will be the best way to score on Oklahoma, I believe USC can do some business against the Sooners on the ground so long as USC's passing attack is working well enough to prevent them from stacking the line of scrimmage. Here are averages per carry for some opponent running backs against Oklahoma:

Courtney Lewis of Texas A & M: 6.3 yards per carry
Ryan Gilbert of Houston: 6 ypc
Vernand Morency of Oklahoma State: 5.5 ypc
Terrence Whitehead of Oregon: 5 ypc
Cory Ross of Nebraska: 4.3 ypc
Cedric Benson of Texas: 4 ypc

Those kind of numbers show that Oklahoma's rush defense is not invincible. Oklahoma's rushing yards per game defense stats are inflated a bit by a couple things (other than some strong shutdowns not listed above). First, they got the lead on some teams quickly, taking those teams out of their running games. Some of the guys above didn't get as many carries as you would think from those averages because their teams had to start bombing away to catch up. In fact, Oklahoma opponents rushed the ball over the course of the season only 20 times more than USC opponents did, so the usual tendency of the Big 12 to run more often than the Pac 10 was all but erased by this catch-up factor. Second, the NCAA rule deducting sack yardage from rushing totals also comes into play for teams that get a lot of sacks, like Oklahoma and USC, to make their rushing defenses look more imposing than they are. IF USC can rush the ball effectively against OU, USC will put up at least 30pts. Reggie Bush averages 6.1 ypc and White averages 5.2 ypc.

USC UPDATE

Reports are Leinart has looked VERY SHARP passing the ball in all of the bowl practices. Nothing but great reports from the USC practices and no further injuries.

USC starting RB White looks like he will play and be at around 90%. This is GREAT news for USC and the offense. White is USC's only power RB and he really gets the offense rolling. Report is he has looked good in his last 2 days of practice.

USC starting OL Drake is close to 100% and he has not played in the last 3 USC games. He is over 350 pounds and USC missed him in the last 3 games. Reports from practice say he has looked AWESOME and fully recovered. HUGE NEWS FOR USC!

2nd string DT Manual Wright will also play in the OB but he is at around 80-90%. He has been out the last 3 games as well and he is just as talented as Cody and Patterson. Wright will prevent Peterson from wearing down the USC DL and he makes plays. He also is known to take plays off but since he is not a starter it is not a big deal. Last year as freshman he played extremely well against Michigan in spot duty. He is very important and when Wright is in the game, that moves Cody to DE!!!!!

In conclusion, I've been called a homer, but I'm realistic about my team (USC), and aware of what 1)other teams need to beat us and 2) what other teams possess. I will discuss this in my next post!

My team just happens to be King Kong in CFB right now, so it comes off as arrogance when its just the reality.

 

[bombercoops]

Both teams have been tested this year and had to dig themselves out of holes in certain games, and only championship teams can do this consistently. It seems you have gone and covered every angle for which to make USC the BIG play that you are firing at, but when it's all said and done scott, you said this about purdue whipping up on Arizona st. a couple of days ago. You make valid points in your articles above but you follow it with remarks regarding USC as the "king kong" of college football, which until the 60 mins have been played and a result has been finalized, is a little over the top. If OU takes USC to the house in a couple of days you're going to look like a complete toss for making comments such as these. GL with your plays, but I'm personally pulling for a sooner boilover!

 

[THE KOD]

I am taking USC BIG in this game. I have multiple bets on USC and OU.

So now you know how strong I feel about USC winning this game since I have a lot more money at risk on USC.

............................................................

Scott3USC

We knew who you were taking before the season started. And we knew how strongly you felt about it a long time ago.

USC is overrated.

KOD

 

[tulah]

an interesting fact for USC backers
USC is in the top 10 in all Major D category's's

OU in 3 category's


GO Trojans

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Scott
Great right up. You failed to account for one very important intangible: RELIGION. Not talking baptist, catholic, or toaist; We're talking Football. Those California guys got more distractions than these fundementalist Norman Okies. Come to gut check time, I'll take the ones built with chiken fried steak over sushi. Besides, OK is a red state, those californicaters ain't

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

The reason that OU will win is because of the line play. I've only seen USC 3 times (VaTech, ND and Cal), but your analysis that USC out-physicaled ND is flat-out wrong. ND's Oline dominated SC and SC couldn't tackle Grant or Walker. But with Peterson in the backfield, those miscues will be going for 6 instead of 20-yard gains. Starting with the second series, the Trojans had to pull their safeties in, but ND didn't have an answer due to their OC's ineptitude, Quinn's inexperience, and the fact that ND's receivers couldn't catch the ball. OU has none of those problems.

ND played a nickel on defense throughout and SC still couildn't run the ball consistently. Leinhart's a stud and Bush presents matchup problems for anybody, but my money's is and will always be on the team that controls the line. It won't be SC.

 

[kneifl]

USC is over rated.

Your lucky you hedged, damn lucky.

OU by 24 - this will be a blow out. End of story.

kneifl

 

[CTown Sports]

You state that Oklahoma is taken to the wire by ok st, a&m and texas tech, but lets take at look at USC close losses:

Stanford - only win by 3? to a 7 loss team
California- gets spanked in its bowl game
UCLA- loses to who in its bowl game?, oh yea wyoming

You make great points but give us both sides.
Thanks for the writeup.

 

[Bob Stoops]

I've been waiting for this post since the day the game was announced. If I had the time, I could re-do your entire post and change OU to USC and it would be the same thing.

You can say whatever you want about who each team has faced so far this season, but the fact is that neither team has faced anyone that is as good or fast as each other. To use previous games and compare how USC played against Stanford or OU vs. Texas Tech is stupid.

No team in the country compares in talent from the coaching staff down to these two teams. They are clearely the best in almost every category. Auburn is the only team in the country that is even close.

As with everything, the trenches and turnovers will determine this game.

OU wins 27-17.

 

[OKD]

You signature win (even though they dominated you, at home) just got spanked by the #4 team in the Big 12 South.

Enough said.

 

[OKD]

P.S. I was hoping you'd make one of your signature, La-La Land posts, just so we could all point and laugh when the game is over. :clap:

 

[flapjack]

As an SC alum and fan, I am hoping for a USC victory. But as a bettor I am staying far, far away from this. To me it comes down to Lendale White's health. I'm not sure I buy the USC reports that say he is looking good. High ankle sprains are the WORST. He makes Bush much more deadly by allowing him to roam around, without White, he'll be forced to line up in the backfield, he makes the D respect the run which makes Leinart deadly. He is the key and without him, I don't see USC winning. If he is healthy, I like their chances. Far too many unknowns and too much talent on each side to feel real confident about taking either side. I say a healthy and effective White = a USC victory, less healthy White equals an OU victory, no White equals a easy OU victory. My one piece of advice for anyone betting the game is to keep checking those reports in the local papers for his status, maybe even waiting till game time to see how he is looking on the sideline or last second reports from the sideline reporters.

 

[Master Capper]

Scott,

Some very good information and some of the info is going to be very useful to me in capping this game. Unfortunately, alot of the info is highly slanted towards USC and doesnt bring out many of the negatives about the Trojans which is typical of any post you make regarding USC or the PAC 10. Some of the most informative post that you have made have been in games not involving USC or a PAC 10 team when you do not sound like a FAN. I dispute many of the comments in your fact sheet such as:

OU was taken down to the wire by 4 loss Okla. St. and 4 loss A&M on successive Saturdays, how can they hope to stop unbeaten USC?

What does this have to do with the game? What about USC barely hanging on to beat a overrated Cal team, struggling with UCLA, Stanford and Oreg State?


OU trailed deep into the 3rd quarter against 7 loss KSU, how can they hope to beat the Trojans?

What about USC needing a phantom PInterference call to beat VT? What about USC needing a goal line stand to beat Cal or having UCLA take them to the wire? Again your facts are worthless.

OU was outgained by 53 yards by 7-4 Texas Tech, how can they hope to keep up with the Men of Troy?


Is this not the same Tech team that just pulverized Cal whom happened to outgain the Men of Troy by over 100 yards?


OU had a 14-10 halftime score against Kansas and only a 14-0 halftime score against Baylor Do you really think OU knows how to score in the 1st Q or 2nd Q against the USC defense?

What the hell does this have to do with anything? Was not USC behind the mighty Stanford Cardinals at half, thus more GARBAGE!

All of the information you provide after these fallacies is subjective and is just your personal beliefs such comments as USC has played strong defenses such as CAL, ND and OKIE has only played Texas is a joke. What games are you watching Cal's defense was shredded and ND's defense has been piss poor all year against any talented offenses. If anything Okie has faced more diverse offenses this year than USC has faced in a down year in the PAC 10, they have played BGSU, AM, Tex, Tech, Okie State, Oreg all teams with wide open offenses with the vast majority of them having weapons at RB.

At this point I have not even decided whom I will play in this game but I know I will be watching the team that most deserved to go to the title game tonight in Auburn and they very well could lose tonight as could USC and Okie because in a one game match all it takes is for one player to have a major breakdown at a value position and it can sink the whole team.

 

[Bob Stoops]

GAME ANALYSIS

Honestly Peterson hasn't really scored many tds in games that are close or have meaning.

Nice Try Scott he had over 200 yards in their two biggest games.

OU has never seen a set of LBs who can cover the way USC's can.

Derrick Johnson from Texas is seen as the best LB in the country.


USC starting RB White looks like he will play and be at around 90%. This is GREAT news for USC and the offense. White is USC's only power RB and he really gets the offense rolling. Report is he has looked good in his last 2 days of practice.

He may look great but he is not starting. In addition, he told reporters at media day that he hadn't been able to cut on his ankle yet in practice.

 

[pt1gard]

again, write anything you want, I still feel one of these teams will be dominated on defense, and their QB be rattled... which one Im not sure, just seems thats the way it goes in big games so often--this is like a SBowl in that respect; Im 90% convinced one coaching staff will get an upper hand... I was thinking this thru the other day and this is truly a statement for one program or another to reign supreme at least for the time being ... Kinda like a coach k vs Dean smith near the end--a tug a war, tho this is first time theyve gone head to head ... I have usc 9/2 but am still considering a hedge and sitting back and watching game on tape b/c my HS team (darnit!) has a game tuesday night

gl to all
gregg

 

[gjn23]

FACTS...you wants FACTS

You`d never know that the Pac-10 has the best BCS bowl record
in the current decade based on the comments from most media. In fact, you might think we get beat up so bad we don't belong in the BCS. The Pac is 5-1 in BCS bowl games in the current decade, better than every other conference. If USC wins Tuesday night, this will continue.

And as for top to bottom? Is there any other conference that has placed 70% of their teams in the top 5 of the AP "FINAL" poll in the last 10 years? I highly doubt it, but the Pac-10 sure has, which proves how tough the conference is top to bottom.

Arizona - #4 in '98
Asu - #4 in '96
Oregon St - #4 in '00
Oregon - #2 in '01
Washington - #3 in '00
USC - #1 in '03 (and #4 in '02)
UCLA - #5 in '97

I challenge anyone to find any conference that can boast this about their depth?

Bottom line, the difference in the game will be Jason White's ability to get easily rattled and show his true colors as an average QB (see last year vs LSU). SC wins and fans and media turn their attention to crying about Auburn and the SEC being better.

 

[Waldo]

Thanks for pointing that out Gin. Since I now know that ASU finished in the top 5 9 years ago, I feel that much better about my 'SC bet. I may have to double up.

 

[Master Capper]

GJN,

What does that have to do with this year? Thats like saying do you realize that every team from the American League Central in baseball has won the division in the past ten years and the reason why is the division is average. We can only go by what we have seen this year and the Pac 10 is down this year, the league is very bottom heavy with average and poor teams, it's nothing to be pissed about as it happens in all leagues as they go in cycles. I really dont see what Arizona winning in 1998 has to do with anything, is that the last time they had a winning season? To even invole Washington into any debate about this year is comical as they were perhaps the worst team in all of the larger leagues. The Pac 10 has finally started to add some decent coaches and the results should soon begin to show and allow the PAC 10 to escape the 5th best Conf tag