Week 4 Plays............

[Scott4USC]

Again could you please post how many units you will be down if you did not play 2nd half lines. That way people will have a REAL IDEA of what you are really up or down this year. Good example is the last 2 weeks you lost 75% of your plays including your big plays but you SUPPOSEDLY bet 2nd half lines to middle which in fact was to buy back your losing bet. Your YTD record is very skewed as if the average person did not bet the 2nd half they would be down HUGE. Trust me Scott I have never and will never bet any of your games. You post all of this analysis and it all sounds great but you constantly miss things. Good example is the SC/Bama game; the line moved from SC being favored by 2 to Alabama being favored by 2 1/2 that only would make me pause now is line movement always right NO however you always look at line movement in the other direction as a way to put more money on the wrong play. Good luck on your plays I hope everyone wins however I hope newbies dont open your threads thinking you have any potetial winners. You need to stick to betting on USC that is what made you alot of money. I enjoy reading about USC because you actually know what you are talking about. I have won a ton of money in the PAC 10 and USC this year I hope it continues.

ANYBODY can add my plays up. I have nothing to hide. I am not going to sit down and do it. Remember, it is about ME winning! These are 95% of my personal plays. This is what I am doing. Sometimes I wager and forget to get it posted or not around computer. But they are 95% of my plays. All my 2h wagers were posted before the 3q started. Most were 5+min. before the 3q started. I am here to make a profit for myself. I will do whatever is in MY best interest. Everything is documented so have fun. But I assure you my UNITS WON/LOSS is 100% correct! Have a good day!

FYI, you can make boat load of money betting 2h's. I have done it the last 3 years with USC.

$100 won on side wager = $100 won on a 2h wager!

If you think my analysis is crap for my side wagers, YOU DO NOT HAVE TO READ THEM!! See how great my threads are! I don't hide anything from anybody. Everything is out there for everyone to make the best decision for themsevles!

I love the people who post in my threads telling me they don't play my plays or think my analysis is crap. My question is why are you in my thread then? PUT ME ON IGNORE LIST!

 

[dlvlsu]

High IQ??????? LOL Geez let me get my boots on its getting deep in here!!

 

[Scott4USC]

Air Force :thumb:

In week 2 my trend was betting on a team who looked impressive the week prior vs. a team who didn?t look impressive the week before. My trend this week appears to be coaching mismatches. Specifically in this game and VT/G-Tech game. I also added .2 units ($100) AF +7.5 -115 to get back my $100 loss on 5-team teaser.

IMO AF has a complete coaching mismatch. First year HC Kyle Whittingham for Utah right now isn't getting great reviews for his game day coaching. He has an 18 year old QB playing so I think that has a lot to do with it. Someday this kid will be good but right now he is shakey. So Utah has been very conservative on offense. I understand this and I will benefit from Utah being conservative. IMO Utah cannot beat AF by double digits if they are conservative. AF HC Fisher DeBerry is probably one of the best in game coach coaching today in college FB.

Against TCU, I thought Utah did a poor job at stopping the option against TCU. This is bad news for Utah because TCU,and their version of the option isn't nearly as dangerous as the AF option attack! Utah gave up a season high 228 rushing yards last week along with 5 rushing yards per attempt. TCU has an average OL. AF has the #1 OL in the Mountain West conference. AF is averaging 260 yards per game on the ground with a 4.3 yards per attempt!

IMO, AF is a more efficient passing than TCU and def. the more dominant rushing team. QB Carney is very efficient at the QB position. He won?t win the game for AF with his arm but he is more than capable of keeping the defense honest. That is crucial and I think the Utah D will struggle.

AF D is solid against the run and their weakness is the pass. But remember the Utah HC gets very conservative and prob. will not go all out passing the ball. Plus AF D might benefit from costly mistakes from the young Utah QB.

What has prevented me from playing more units on AF is Utah has had 2 extra days of practice and AF has had the short week. AF is a quality team who has shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. Turnovers, Special teams play, and penalties. I am banking on them fixing those areas of concern but I won't risk more than 2 units on it. If they fixed those areas prior to the season, Utah would only be a 3pt favorite. I am sitting pretty with my +8. If I was ahead more units this season, i would be playing a unit on AF ML.

An added bonus??

AF is 8-1 ATS in conf. road openers
AF is 6-2 ATS last 8 games vs Utah
Home team in this series is 1-7 ATS
Utah is 0-5 ATS as home favorites 7 or less pts

Go Falcons!

:bigun: :bigun: :bigun:

 

[Danny Noonan]

Scott, one last concern I have about playing Cards that I forgot in the above post -- Louisville is the largest consensus play on the board at *****line.com at 78%. Too much of a knee-jerk reaction to the 12:00 EST pounding of OSU last week IMHO.

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2.2 units Utah -3 2h +105 (pinny)

AF is moving the ball like I expected but Utah is passing the ball way too easy. AF turning the ball over twice killed my bet. I'll save myself the chance of losing 2 units and add these 2 units onto another bet of mine. I still can win my AF bet if Utah wins by 7pts!


Edit: accidently posted my reply in this post. Man am I fawked up tonight. Mistakes all over. I have not even had a sip of alcohol.

 

[gjn23]

Scott...let me preface this by saying i love reading your analysis and usually agree with your west coast/pac-10 insight.....however....

i've read your posts in the past where you stated the following:
*you are 24
*live in so cal
*you live at home
*you are trying to save money to buy a house
*1 unit = $500
*winning 10 units at the end of the year is BIG for you

my questions are

*am I REALLY supposed to believe that you bet 13 units ($6500) on some crap game like sfla-lville????

*if you are betting that big..why are you living at home and saving for a house?

*if your units equate to your actual wagers you are a 24 year old guy trying to save for a house living with mom and day wagering 10-20k each weekend and having 10-20k tied up in futures????

you either are full of bs in this respect, inherently wealthy, or make about 1mill per year but are too cheap to buy a house

personally i dont buy it.....and really dont care because i look for info here from certain people (you are one of them) not w-l records or dolllars wagers...that stuff is all irrelevant to me and is easily manipulated (see nollan dalla)..

either way good luck.....this was just something that i've been pondering (and laughing) over for a while now.

 

[Dr. Little]

edit by admin

no bashing. 2 day ban.

-admin

 

[Dr. Little]

I guess I put my foot in my mouth nice call on AF

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 2.2 units Utah -3 2h +105 (pinny)

AF is moving the ball like I expected but Utah is passing the ball way too easy. AF turning the ball over twice killed my bet. I'll save myself the chance of losing 2 units and add these 2 units onto another bet of mine. I still can win my AF bet if Utah wins by 7pts!

:wtf:

WHAT THE FAWK WAS I THINKING? :banghead:

Wow did I dodge a fawking bullet. 2nd week in a row for me. HOLY $HIT! I thought in my head I had Utah +3 2h but it was Utah -3. I could have fawking lost 4.5 units losing my focus. OMG! That would have sucked. This is the 2nd week in a row I have done this $hit to myself. Last week I had Utah for 5 units so I wanted to cancel my bet in 2h and took TCU. Well I put TCU for 5k thinking 5k=5units but 5 units = $2,500. Man was I sweating bullets in that game with TCU. That was why I said after the game in my thread I was rooting for TCU to win for different reasons. 2 weeks in a row I have done this $hit. MAN O MAN! What was I thinking. Geesh. :scared

I didn't notice it until 4th quarter when Utah was up 10pts. I was thinking, hey I have small chance at winning my AF bet and pushing my Utah 2h bet. Then I saw someone post in my thread, opened it up, and saw I posted Utah -3. I was like, I must have made mistake. Went into Pinny acount and there it was Utah -3. FAWK! How lucky was I for AF to score that last TD! Tonight makes up for 4 middles I never hit this season. Did I dodge a bullet or what! Yikes! Could have lost 2k tonight. Holy $hit! I never cancel a wager in 2h if I know I have chance at losing BOTH bets. 2 weeks in a row I been SLOPPY! $hit.

:scared :scared :scared

 

[soljah67]

lol, well he did end up losing juice. see scott, should have stuck with your picks.

btw, still like Hawaii, but not gonna play it as heavy as I would like as there are some injuries that arose in Hawaii's practice. Not serious ones, but still will sort of affect the game as one of them is Ilaoa (he will still play though). Still think Hawaii is going to win, and yes Hawaii knows how this little Idaho Stadium is like. 14,000 people and inclosed (so kinda loud), hard astro turf, dim lights, etc. Just think Hawaii's offense is gonna click and run circles around Idaho while not turning the ball over. Idaho's offense will definated turn the ball over at least once and Hawaii's defense will show how they play against below average offenses.

 

[Bubba]

Good call Scott.
Dr. Little, with your 32 posts...regardless of the outcome, youre still Dr. Little. I've been trying to find your picks but somehow can't find them.

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott...let me preface this by saying i love reading your analysis and usually agree with your west coast/pac-10 insight.....however.....

Thanks!

i've read your posts in the past where you stated the following:
*you are 24
*live in so cal
*you live at home
*you are trying to save money to buy a house
*1 unit = $500
*winning 10 units at the end of the year is BIG for you

I am 24, I live in Burbank, CA, I do live at home with parents and brother, I am saving to buy a "small" house or Condo BY MYSELF but I am waiting for the market to "dip." Remember, I live in SO CAL, very expensive here! 1 unit does = $500 like I posted. Winning 10 units at the end of the year = $5,000 in profit. YES that be a VERY good year. I am confident i can reach that and hopefully win more than 10 units! 2 units profit = 1k which is great!Quality units vs Quantity units.

my questions are

*am I REALLY supposed to believe that you bet 13 units ($6500) on some crap game like sfla-lville????

Yes. I have won THOUSANDS of $$$ posted on here. All documented. Without thinking long on this and not exact figures, these are my WINNINGS of POSTED wagers on Madjacks. Only talking about POSTED wagers here. #'s could be off but they are ballpark. You would think I would remember the exact winnings on these big scores but I don't.

Around 30k total on USC over the years,
6.5 k Red Sox World Series last year
12k UNC NC last year
12k profit on Spurs (but truthfully I won a lot more, around 30k not subtracting my Pistons hedge)
1.3k BetRoyal contest (2 teams in finals + winner)
Lost around 10k posted Celtics (slightly more than that, I lost around 12k but posted 10k)
I might have won 3-5k profit on side wagers. $500+ bets.

I would estimate all my posted wagers on MJ's = 52k in winnings give or take. Now I am only talking about my BIG scores.

Spurs Winnings. June 23 is when they won!

Link

Here are my Louisville wagers.

Link1

Link2


Don't know what more I can do. Those are screen shots and I erased the ticket # because BDB said books don't like that posted. I have NEVER been caught with a lie on this site and NEVER had any BS posts. I am sure if I did, there be bunch of people on my case!

*if you are betting that big..why are you living at home and saving for a house?

Should I throw $$$ down the toilet like my friends do and get an apartment? I will prob. be moving out in Jan. My parents live in big 2 story home so it is not like I am cramped. Plus I get free food and everything. No expenses except gas and cell phone bill.

*if your units equate to your actual wagers you are a 24 year old guy trying to save for a house living with mom and day wagering 10-20k each weekend and having 10-20k tied up in futures????

YEP! This is GAMBLING MONEY. All my money in the sportsbooks and all money I took out is PROFIT! 5-6 years ago I won $800 profit. After that I lost about $200-$500. Year 1 of Pete Carroll started with $500 in sportsbook and built it to $1200 something and lost it all on USC in Las Vegas bowl. (bad bad bet but I was young) Next year started with 1k and been on amazing run. But that year after Las Vegas bowl, I made 4 ACCOUNT bets and won them all! Betting my entire account. 1k to win $900. $1900 to win $1700 etc etc. Something like that. Rest is history! Thats my "gambling" story in a nutshell. If you want me to go into detail I can.

you either are full of bs in this respect, inherently wealthy, or make about 1mill per year but are too cheap to buy a house

None of the above. Although my Dad is an MD so I do not come from a poor family.

personally i dont buy it.....and really dont care because i look for info here from certain people (you are one of them) not w-l records or dolllars wagers...that stuff is all irrelevant to me and is easily manipulated (see nollan dalla)..

Nothing is manipulated in my threads. My UNITS WON or UNITS LOST is calculation of ALL BETS PLACED in my threads.

either way good luck.....this was just something that i've been pondering (and laughing) over for a while now.

No problem and I appreciate the nice comments. But nothing I post is BS! If you have anymore questions, I don't mind answering. Unless they are too personal.


Here is my TCU STUPIDITY BET I did last week. 2 weeks in a row I fawked up. For some reason i thought 5 units = 5k but should have been 2.5k :cursin: But it turned out ok but could easily been ugly!

TCU :banghead:

 

[tulah]

Good luck this week Scott!!
I love Louisville this week!
I hate that were bumpin heads on Hawaii.

Why is it so hard to beleave that some people bet thousands of dollars on a single play.

I have friends who would bet an average of $5000 per play!

If you could afford to , why not...

 

[Mr Hockey]

Good luck this week Scott!!
I love Louisville this week!
I hate that were bumpin heads on Hawaii.

Why is it so hard to beleave that some people bet thousands of dollars on a single play.

I have friends who would bet an average of $5000 per play!

If you could afford to , why not...

Oh one word sums it up: JEALOUSY

Some of these guys can't fathom the thought that not everyone puts $25 or $50 on a play or steps out with a $100 parlay or teaser.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Oh by the way DrLittle you sure have the brain of a 2 year old. So newbies don't play 1st or 2nd H's of games? Well last I check wasn't winning money the main concept regardless of how it is done.

 

[gjn23]

to make wagers of that size each week (almost 12k on this weeks current posted play) plus any halftime or other "fun" wagers one must have at least 20k in their offshore account to cover all those bets......i dont know many people who leave 20k in an offshore gambling site...let alone 24 year olds who live at home because they are trying to save money.

my point is....if you've got at least 20k in "play money" but you are "saving" for a house???? what happens when an 0-5 weekend hits and those 30 units wagered are ALL losers ?????? It can happen, easily. Just be careful.

again...i like reading your analysis and perspective (its what makes this site great) and i do put stock into your unit wagering strategy because it gives me an idea of which plays you like better than others (as opposed to "outlaw play"..."large play"..."super large play"...."HUGE play"...."GIGANTIC play"....."RON JEREMYESQUE PLAY"...which mean nothing to me ...however i think in the long run that is a losing wagering strategy (and a quick hit strategy)......i dont know or care if your unit is actually $500...even though it is hard to believe......


either way....good luck....until arizona plays $C on oct 8th

 

[Sun Tzu]

Hockey it isnt jealousy. Sure there are guys that do that. In some cases it is clear or probable folks dont. Calling someone out with suspicions doesnt make gj or anyone else jealous. Scott may well but that much, he may not. I doubt it, but it doesnt matter, and no one would question it, if he int try and make a point of it in every thread. I would say the guy trying to make a point of telling us how much he bets, or making up amounts, has the problem. In fact, I dont know why anyone feels the need to mention an amount or in most cases units. For some guys their $100 play is a bigger play than some other guy's 10k. Some guys call any play "17 units" then say they won 17 on the year which is no better than anyone else's 1. I havent seen Scott post a 1 unit play yet, so why is a unit $500? He never plays a unit? A Worm smash is 17 or 15 or whatever - where is the 2 unit play?

To me jsut say your play and leave the other stuff out of it. All it does is confuse the folks in theory we area ll trying to help.

 

[Scott4USC]

Adding 3 units Louisville -19.5 -112 over South Florida (pinny) adlock:

*woke up at 3am logged on to check weather for sat. and looks good. So added my 3 units and bought 1/2pt and pay -112 vig. Right now it is -108 vig at pinn -20. UL is -20.5 everywhere else so I'll take the PINNY value! I'll post some addition stuff why I like UL. Biggest play of the year for me with a total of 16 BIG units. I am expecting a 35pt win for UL. That is why I have 16 units on them!

I havent seen Scott post a 1 unit play yet, so why is a unit $500? He never plays a unit? A Worm smash is 17 or 15 or whatever - where is the 2 unit play?.

From the top of my head, I had 1 unit play on ND over Michigan which won. I had 1 unit play on BYU ML over BC which lost.

The average unit size of all my wagers I think comes to about 4 units! My most popular unit size is 2 units. So what is your beef?

To me jsut say your play and leave the other stuff out of it. All it does is confuse the folks in theory we area ll trying to help.

I am not vague like you. I post a line because I am trying to beat the spread. I want to be accountable for my picks. Therefore I also keep a record. I fully explain myself and my betting strategy. Everything is out in the open. Then I post analysis as to WHY I AM betting that play. Nobody bets my plays blindly and I wouldn't ask them too! Only a moron would be confused opening my threads.

I also don't run and delete my threads if someone questions me!

I predict you will post again and sometime during the season erase your posts and run away AGAIN!

to make wagers of that size each week (almost 12k on this weeks current posted play) plus any halftime or other "fun" wagers one must have at least 20k in their offshore account to cover all those bets......i dont know many people who leave 20k in an offshore gambling site...let alone 24 year olds who live at home because they are trying to save money.

my point is....if you've got at least 20k in "play money" but you are "saving" for a house???? what happens when an 0-5 weekend hits and those 30 units wagered are ALL losers ?????? It can happen, easily. Just be careful.

again...i like reading your analysis and perspective (its what makes this site great) and i do put stock into your unit wagering strategy because it gives me an idea of which plays you like better than others (as opposed to "outlaw play"..."large play"..."super large play"...."HUGE play"...."GIGANTIC play"....."RON JEREMYESQUE PLAY"...which mean nothing to me ...however i think in the long run that is a losing wagering strategy (and a quick hit strategy)......i dont know or care if your unit is actually $500...even though it is hard to believe......

either way....good luck....until arizona plays $C on oct 8th

Thanks and I am glad you enjoy my analysis. Makes it worth typing up. I think you are missing something. The $$$ in the sportsbooks are PROFIT. Not my $$$$. Not the $$$ I am saving up for my "small" house or condo although i do plan on using some of it but I am not dependent on it. Might depend on what i get. I have over 60k in the sportsbooks and neteller. Large part of that is tied up with USC future and Angels future to win west. I am having a good time with this $$$ and hopefully it works out great for me! I been on amazing run last 3 years and hope it continues.

One more thing. Before the CFB season started I was up over 3k in free money. I have around 10 sportsbooks and took advanage of great bonuses. So essentially I am up 6 units ($500 a unit) before season started. So for me personally, I have to lose 7 units for me to lose just 1 unit of my own $$$ in the sportsbooks. I always preached to people to take advantage of bonuses. Great great deal and easy to roll over. RELOAD bonuses: BETMILL 25% bonus, Betwwts 20%, mybookie 20%, ***** 20%, betris 20%, bestline 20%, nine 20%, ETC. ETC. It all adds up and I get the best lines too! Madjack gets everyone these great deals, you must take advantage of it!

So that is another reason I can afford to bet $500 unit because I am up 6 units to start the season! But I don't reflect that in any way into my record.



Mr. Hockey

What a pleasant surprise to see positive comments from you in my thread. Thanks! I know we butt heads a lot in the past, glad we moved past that.



soljah67

Thanks for Hawaii update. Lets see who comes out on top!

 

[lowell]

i was going to read this whole thread but wanted to finish the novel i am reading and return it to the library before it is overdue. could you please list your plays for this weekend , starting with your strongest one. thanks and good luck

 

[Chill]

Illinois +10.5
Mstate sandwiches this between ND and Mich
Zook will Have Illini up for his first B-10 game