Winners and losers

[lostinamerica]

NFL YTD: 23-16 (+7.94*)
NCAA YTD: 41-26 (+11.83*)

Houston(-3)(-130) over Detroit (1*)
- -

Washington(+3') over Dallas (1*)
- -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NFL YTD: 24-16 (+8.94*)
NCAA YTD: 46-30 (+12.48*)

I like a lot of NFL games this week (including on Thursday), I just don't love any of them.

San Diego(+1)(-115) over Baltimore (1*)
- - I wanted to take San Diego last week, but I just didn't think they would get over the hump at Mile High (or whatever it's now called). This week is a different story, as Baltimore travels to the West Coast on a Pittsburgh sandwich. I expect Baltimore will not be a favorite in the final spread, but if they are, I believe teams that are favored after playing Pittsburgh are 10-31 ATS.

Chicago(-6) over Minnesota (1*)
- - I don't like Minnesota feeling so good about themselves off a bye in a turnover inducing environment, and I like reeling Chicago here while oh by the way getting their QB back even more than I dislike Minnesota.

Indianapolis(-3)(+102) over Buffalo (1*)
- -

Seattle(-3) over Miami (1*)
- - It seemed teams off a bye as road favorites were 25-6-1 ATS since 2007, then 26-6-1, then 27-6-1, so I'll keep riding the train.

I also "like" New Orleans and Arizona.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NFL YTD: 26-18 (+8.69*)
NCAA YTD: 46-30 (+12.48*)

It's been a good year, so the bad breaks have not really been an issue, but that 4th and 29 play in the San Diego game will still sting next year.

Atlanta(-3)(-132) over New Orleans (1*)
- - I really think Atlanta is the right side tonight.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NFL YTD: 27-18 (+9.69*)
NCAA YTD: 47-30 (+12.19*)

No shortage on Saturday and Sunday angles or games I like a lot this week, so I?ll definitely trust my stuff to be respectable . . . I considered bumping all the plays to 1.5 units, but instead I?ll be trying some parlays this week with some various combinations of games, including at enhanced odds.

Green Bay(-7)(-120) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
- - Simply put, we find out if bleedingpurple was really only kidding around when he put the Vikings in Green Bay?s class.

San Francisco(-7)(-120) over St. Louis (1*)
- - Is St. Louis likely to repeat the effort they gave in San Francisco when the team now building its mojo and momentum comes calling? As with the -7' in the Minnesota vs. Green Bay game, I think the line is offering a hint of which side the books are trying to entice action on.

Seattle(+3') over Chicago (1*)
- - Game of the day, or close to it.

Tampa Bay(+8)(-120) over Denver (1*)
- - The opening line of -9 was a lot of respect and/or lack of respect.

Might add more . . .

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
NFL YTD: 29-19 (+10.49*)

Should have added Pittsburgh(+9) over Baltimore . . . A week after the 4th and 29 debacle, Minnesota misses a late 41 yard field goal to avoid taking a back door cover, and Tampa Bay storms back for the back door push, so simply put, no complaints.

Cleveland(-4') over Kansas City (1.5*)
- - ANGLES pervade this one.

San Francisco(-10) over Miami (1.5*)
- - Strong play.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

My muddled thoughts from last Sunday night are still unshaken today.

Cleveland(-4') over Kansas City (1.5*)
- - OK, maybe Cleveland isn?t on the come. But they do have talent in some significant areas, they might be getting healthy, they are def a frustrated franchise and squad, they just showed more will than a gutsy Pittsburgh nemesis, then broke their road duck by winning on the west coast from start to finish, and are now home with a bounce in their step . . . Whatever story lines you want to pull from the Chiefs for their visit, the angle re the other side is, simply put, I wouldn?t be looking to back a strong team coming off what the Chiefs stormed through from last week, and are now heading out to a tough environment, and said Kansas City seems IMO not so much to rise to any high level heading into December, and they won?t carry my cash . . . Also a TOP PLAY for me at -6'.

San Francisco(-10) over Miami (1.5*)
- - A quicker version . . . The 49ers are arguably the best team in the league. With their upcoming back to back road games, and feeling the heat already, my cash would at least want the opponent coming to call to be a division foe or a seriously undervalued team, which is not exactly my b-i-g take on Miami heading to the west coast for this game. I see San Francisco producing in the red zone, and I think they find ways of getting those chances to produce . . . Another TOP PLAY.

Still adding . . .

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

New York Giants(-5) over New Orleans (1*)
- -

Dallas(+3)(+102) over Cincinnati (1*)
- -

Tampa Bay(-7) over Philadelphia (1*)
- -

Baltimore(+3)(-131) over Washington (1*)
- -

Minnesota(+3)(-125) over Chicago (1*)
- -

GL

 

[smax]

VERY NICE DAY ! NOW, IF YOUR TEAM COMES THRU TONITE..... PERFECT DAY. :toast:

I took the simple ones. SEA---S F---NY Giants.

Good day for a guy that doesn't play the pros much.

 

[lostinamerica]

NFL YTD: 34-20 (+15.39*)
NCAA YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)

Green Bay(-3)(-103) over Chicago (1 Biscuit)
- -

Houston(-7') over Indianapolis (1*)
- -

Arizona(+6)(-115) over Detroit (1*)
- -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Cincinnati(-5) over Philadelphia (1*)
- -

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2012 NFL Regular Season YTD: 35-20 (+16.39*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 1-0 (+1.00*)
Top Plays (included above): 11-4 (+11.02*)


Green Bay(-3)(-103) over Chicago (1 Biscuit)
- - Simply put, Green Bay has set the standard for the league since 1992 in quarterback play and in developing their players. Green Bay?s young players are routinely capable in meeting the rigors of next man in, and now the visitor is getting healthier, while the injuries are piling up at the wrong time for the aging Bears. If Green Bay comes through with ball security, the up arrow is not pointing in the Bears direction in this December matchup.

Houston(-7') over Indianapolis (1*)
- - Houston returns home off a spanking at the end of a grueling three game road trip, while Indianapolis arrives off 4th quarter heroics for the umpteenth (sixth) time. Moreover, the rushing game matchups and batted ball stats are just two of the areas in this tussle which reinforce my situational analysis on how this game plays out, with a team that IMO is thin in depth and cannot be ready to dial up a full tank of emotional frenzy. In a spot that implicates a divisional title and which favors Houston from virtually every angle, we find out if there is any separation between these clubs in December.

Arizona(+6)(-115) over Detroit (1*)
- - In a season of undisciplined disappointment, Detroit IMO had one bullet left in their chamber, and that was a shot at winning in Wisconsin for the first time since 1991. After that failure, it?s time to get fired up to get back on the road against a team that just lost 0-58 . . . With HC Whisenhunt and his regime shaken to their core, I think they have some palpable fight at home against the kitty cats. Or not.

Also liking SF/NE(Un47), NYG/Atl(Ov50'), TB(+4) vs. NO, Oak(-3) vs. KC, Clev(+1') vs. Wash., and Pitt(-1') over Dall.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

I loved last week's card . . . I'm probably making too many plays for this week to keep busting a move . . . but I see multiple ANGLES that tilt me in one direction in these games, too, so . . .

Baltimore(+3)(-118) over Denver (1*)
- -

Tampa Bay(+4) over New Orleans (1*)
- -

San Francisco/New England(Un47) (1*)
- - For starters, the proven recipe for slowing down Tom Brady is getting pressure with a four man pass rush. Brady and his compadres are going to get hit and smacked in this one, and they won't be bouncing up to the line to run umpteen plays in rhythm like they they are playing against a high school team. On the other side, I have to believe Belichick will have a few wrinkles in store for Kaepernick that will keep him in check. Both teams are stout at limiting "chunk" plays, and also know the importance of putting guys on the ground if and when their are turnovers . . . I'm not exactly sure what to make of San Francisco having a trip to Seattle on deck when they have a 1.5 game lead in the division, but this game should be extremely hard fought in wintry conditions.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

San Francisco/ New England(Ov23')(2h) (1*)
- - I want a winning week, so I'll bail and play for a middle. And if New England gets two touchdowns, I think it goes over.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

The site was down . . . This was my post from 11:40 a.m. CST . . .

Last week I should have just stopped with my original three plays . . . This week, commotion and travel surrounding the holiday left me without time and thought enough to pull the trigger on the only two plays for which I really had a strong liking, which were Atlanta(-3)(-130) over Detroit, and UCF(-7) over Ball State . . . So now I'm in an 0-0 hole instead of a 2-0 position of strength, and I should step out lightly because of the same time constraints on my capping efforts for today, but instead I have the following card . . .

Green Bay(-11) over Tennessee (1 Biscuit)
- - Simply put, IMO we find out at Lambeau whether the arrow is pointing up for the Packer's threat in January.

Chicago(-7)(-103) over Arizona (1*)
- - I'm disappointed this line has moved against me, but this is a tailor-made spot for the Bears to flex whatever muscles they have: perhaps they only have negative momentum and no character, but I don't think so.

Seattle(-2') over San Francisco(1*)
- - I definitely believe this has been the best analyzed game of the week. I'll just add the observation that Kaepernick is showing a reliance on throwing quick to his first objective without the savvy to go through his progressions, and that little extra against this defense makes for the difference today in a top shelf tilt.

New York Giants(-1)(-115) over Baltimore (1*)
- - Simply put, I hope I'm on the wrong side of this one, and I hope at the end of the day the chances of the defending champions making the playoffs are slim and none.

Dallas(-2')(-113) over New Orleans (1*)
- - Dallas played too good, too sharp and with too much character last week for me to really believe this is a good time to play Dallas this week, but I think it's the right play.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2012 NFL Regular Season YTD: 42-25 (+17.71*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 3-2 (-0.20*)
Top Plays (included above): 11-6 (+7.82*)

Let's see what Week 17 brings . . .

Green Bay(-3) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
- - The home team's playoff aspirations clash with the visitor's Super Bowl aspirations.

Houston(-6') over Indianapolis (1*)
- - There are definite angles to my liking even if I can't make it a strong play.

Buffalo(-3)(-126) over New York Jets (1*)
- - This spot almost screams at me to take the division foe at home with a reason to get up (0-6 SU vs. Jets) against a beaten-down Big Apple team.

Seattle(-11') over St. Louis (1*)
- - No thank you with the visitor in what may be Seattle's final home game of the season.

Detroit(+3)(-103) over Chicago (1*)
- - I see Detroit playing hard, and as smart as a stupid team can, and last week simply did not impress me with what Chicago brings in Week 17 for back to back road games against a division foe while carrying the most pressure in the Lovie Smith era.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2013 NFL Playoffs: 0-0 (+0.00*)
2012 NFL Regular Season YTD: 44-28 (+16.41*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 10-5 (+4.35*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
Top Plays (included above): 14-7 (+10.68*)


Green Bay(-7)(-120) over Minnesota (1.5 Biscuits)
- - I like their chances.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2013 NFL Playoffs YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
2012 NFL Regular Season YTD: 44-28 (+16.41*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 12-7 (+4.20*)
Top Plays (included above): 14-7 (+10.68*)


In 10+ years of posting football plays, no question my best wagering records are in: (1) wild card round of NFL playoffs; and (2) Super Bowl and BCS championship games (missed one with Alabama last year for the first time in 5 years) . . . The two wild card games that have me cautious this week are Cincinnati/Houston and Seattle/Washington.


Cincinnati(+4') over Houston (1*)
- - ?"We are probably playing better this year than we have been in the past heading into the playoffs," noted Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. "This defense is salty right now. We can play the run well, choke up on some receivers, and rush the passer. We have been doing well on third downs lately as well too. When you can do those four things successfully, you have a good chance to win."? . . . No question IMO that something has been lacking in the play of Houston for some time, and I?m not seeing enough about this rematch, or in the make-up of Houston this year (or even last year and before), to put me on board with the idea I should give those points because Houston is ready to flip the switch today.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

I'm so drunk. Weeeeeeee!

What Packer fan doesn't remember 1995 and Holmgren and Favre?

Unleash Aaron. If he plays great, I like their chances.

GL

 

[MadJack]

I'm so drunk. Weeeeeeee!

What Packer fan doesn't remember 1995 and Holmgren and Favre?

Unleash Aaron. If he plays great, I like their chances.

GL

:toast:

 

[lostinamerica]

Baltimore(-7)(-120) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - There's a decent chance the Ravens win this one going away, but I can't really say that is what I'm expecting. The Ravens have red zone issues, rarely display a stifling defense, and Flacco and his weapons are certainly not to be trusted. And the mix of Indianapolis youth and veterans has been getting so much better than they were just months and weeks ago, and they don't seem destined to have gotten this far to get pushed around and battered and stymied and look spent just yet. Nevertheless, I like the Ravens to prevail, even if l go to the betting window with a sinking feeling about my prospects of covering the number.

GL