I have put a bit of consideration into an under play for this game. There's just so many games to look at today. I'm sticking to one game today so I'm in search of that gem.
NBA FRI 032709 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
I have put a bit of consideration into an under play for this game. There's just so many games to look at today. I'm sticking to one game today so I'm in search of that gem.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Great add on there - already placed a unit on it - like some of the intangibles as I had mentioned
- Mar 18, 2009
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Ax - can you run that query from 2000-2001 to current season -- avoiding the years before they got good
- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 22, 2009
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- Mar 21, 2009
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I was wondering why such high number in Hornets game, they are slow and lack the shooting threat they had with Peja being healthy.
Nate possibly injured his ankle and that might mean less time and slower pace when playing. Duhon gets more time to play, he's a solid defender and also likes to pass alot. So him taking on CP3 should be a good thing and him leading the team for greater extent of time should be even better thing, as Hornets do posses good D.
The both teams have been horrible in shooting three's...Hornets .277 in last 5 (obvious reasons since Peja got hurt) but they are keeping their opps at .286, which should really come in handy vs 3p-tossing Knicks. Oh, btw Knicks are also doing badly beyond the arc with .319 last 5 (including 135 OT pts vs Clips and their non-D where they shot 12/29 .414).
Hornets playing away after a homegame in which they scored u90pts [vs DEN]: 2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS, 3-3 o/u, avg total 188.4, avg score 185.8 (this season).
Knicks have been running alot with D'Antoni yes, but given they've lost 6 in a row you think they would try to get one while still at home.
Important number: Knicks when scoring u100pts are 1-17 SU, losing by 14p avg (89-103).
Can they score 100 on Hornets tonight ? Can Hornets, with their anemic offense score 100 themselves ?
Hornets 91, Knicks 94 ?
Nate possibly injured his ankle and that might mean less time and slower pace when playing. Duhon gets more time to play, he's a solid defender and also likes to pass alot. So him taking on CP3 should be a good thing and him leading the team for greater extent of time should be even better thing, as Hornets do posses good D.
The both teams have been horrible in shooting three's...Hornets .277 in last 5 (obvious reasons since Peja got hurt) but they are keeping their opps at .286, which should really come in handy vs 3p-tossing Knicks. Oh, btw Knicks are also doing badly beyond the arc with .319 last 5 (including 135 OT pts vs Clips and their non-D where they shot 12/29 .414).
Hornets playing away after a homegame in which they scored u90pts [vs DEN]: 2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS, 3-3 o/u, avg total 188.4, avg score 185.8 (this season).
Knicks have been running alot with D'Antoni yes, but given they've lost 6 in a row you think they would try to get one while still at home.
Important number: Knicks when scoring u100pts are 1-17 SU, losing by 14p avg (89-103).
Can they score 100 on Hornets tonight ? Can Hornets, with their anemic offense score 100 themselves ?
Hornets 91, Knicks 94 ?
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- Mar 21, 2009
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Or do they both come out of their 3 pt shooting slumps and score 120 each lol...doubt it but i think there is better games to cap... If nate is in I kinda like knicks +5 ... peja and chandler being out and knicks losing their last 5. but hey :shrug:
Basiclaly I use accuscore as my baseline pre-capping outlook. From there I delve into the matchups, stats/trends and situational factors around a game.
Should anyone use accuscore as the sole selector of games? OF COURSE NOT!, if it was hugely reliable everyone and their mother would have it. As for the college numbers tonight, yes I would expect them to be tight the rest of the way, LVSC are not dummies (well ok Memp/Mizzou total was outta whack) but most of the time they are very close.
Even the close ones I take a look at for plays, but they are last on my list, basically if anything jumps off the page in terms of variance, I use it to scout that game first, find an edge if there is one and slam home those lines before they adjust for overnight betting.
Establishing my charts (and btw, if you go to the interactive chart and click Sheet3, you'll find NBA variance records etc, just like Sheet 2 was Conference NCAA play records)
Any system is bound to be a 50/50 proposition, it's what you do with the information that ultimately makes it's value appear.
- Mar 18, 2009
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from 2000/01 season
DAL triple revenge at home situation
11-8 SU
9-10 ATS
on FRI
1-0 SU
0-1 ATS
and vs. .600+ teams
7-6 SU
6-7 ATS
on FRI
no data
hope this helps
my final card for today
CHA +5,5
SAS -12
NO -5 (POD)
CLE -14
ATL ML
DEN +5
LAL@NJN O205
the only total I like is the over in NJ!
BOL :0corn
Joe
edit: no big plays! only the POD is 1u
CHA +5,5
SAS -12
NO -5 (POD)
CLE -14
ATL ML
DEN +5
LAL@NJN O205
the only total I like is the over in NJ!
BOL :0corn
Joe
edit: no big plays! only the POD is 1u
My $0.02 on the CHA/PHI matchup.
CHA shows all the signs of a young team not dealing well with the pressure of the playoff race. After their blown lead against WAS last game, they were blaming the press for putting undue pressure on them to make the playoffs.
PHI wants to maintain 5th spot in the conference due to 1st round playoff implications.
I also think that PHI is a better team.
The lower the line goes, the more I like PHI.
One total that has my attention is NOR/NYK
NOR avenging any loss this season
o/u 6-16 averaging 191.1
team=Hornets and P
oints < Pooints and season=2008
NOR avenging a home loss
O/U is 2-6 average 195.1
team=Hornets and Points < Pooints and P:site=home and season=2008
NOR avenging a home loss when playing away next time the teams meet
O/U is 2-2 but averaging 192.1
team=Hornets and Points < Pooints and P:site=home and season=2008 and site=away
CHA shows all the signs of a young team not dealing well with the pressure of the playoff race. After their blown lead against WAS last game, they were blaming the press for putting undue pressure on them to make the playoffs.
PHI wants to maintain 5th spot in the conference due to 1st round playoff implications.
I also think that PHI is a better team.
The lower the line goes, the more I like PHI.
One total that has my attention is NOR/NYK
NOR avenging any loss this season
o/u 6-16 averaging 191.1
team=Hornets and P
oints < Pooints and season=2008NOR avenging a home loss
O/U is 2-6 average 195.1
team=Hornets and P
oints < Pooints and P:site=home and season=2008NOR avenging a home loss when playing away next time the teams meet
O/U is 2-2 but averaging 192.1
team=Hornets and P
oints < Pooints and P:site=home and season=2008 and site=awaygreat work ax
great work ax
hi ax i'm new to this site . keep up the great work hopefully we can get back on the winning streak . any word yet on chumps cbb plays for today.
great work ax
hi ax i'm new to this site . keep up the great work hopefully we can get back on the winning streak . any word yet on chumps cbb plays for today.
- Apr 7, 2008
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Yeah, they played one heck of a game. I will be on them again vs Uconn. Both +5.5 and moneyline. The way Missouri paces the game will keep Uconn from exploiting their size and skill advantage with Thabeet. Some people still think Missouri is just a fluke, but this team is for real.
For tonight I am really liking Oklahoma and Kansas in College and the Spurs/Clipp Under 192 in NBA.
