college bowl plays & info....

[AR182]

thanks buck.....

so far 2-0 for today & thought i would push my luck & go for a middle in the next game....

bc+10 (130)....
usc-6 (130)....


good luck....

 

[Irish]

AR
You are the man, thanks for the well wishes for the new year. Right back at you!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Bucknut1]

I had you pegged for an under in this A&M game. I laid off the total, but was hoping you pushed me off the fence and on the under. Realize it is still early, but looking like it shld stay under the number.

 

[AR182]

I had you pegged for an under in this A&M game. I laid off the total, but was hoping you pushed me off the fence and on the under. Realize it is still early, but looking like it shld stay under the number.

couldn't play the under in this game because of the defenses....& a lot of sharp people took the over....

 

[AR182]

under 47(120) ucla / temple....

ucla is 8-0 under when playing against a team with a winning % > 75% over the last 3 seasons....the
average score was ucla 15.3, opponent 20.3....

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (both teams apply) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 pya), in non-conference games....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....40-12....76.9%....

the average total posted in these games was....46.4....the average total points scored in these games was....42.5....the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32....64% of all games.....

2-2 so far in bowl plays....

taking the under in the ucla / temple....the above is a copy of my post on 12/14....

good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding 2 plays....

auburn-7(115)....

nebraska....ml....


good luck....

 

[arrow]

ar

ar

good luck on the bowls brother! i like the under first half on temple, maybe we can both win. how about 7-3 half, would you take that? lol happy new years and bol in the upcoming bowls, ARROW

 

[AR182]

decided to get off the bowling green play for a few reasons....so i have....

bg....ml....
idaho+1....

here is 1 reason....

play on a non-ny's day bowl team that has lost their last 5 or more ats....

since 1996 the ats record for this system is....7-0....100%....

play on....idaho....

good luck....

 

[AR182]

good luck on the bowls brother! i like the under first half on temple, maybe we can both win. how about 7-3 half, would you take that? lol happy new years and bol in the upcoming bowls, ARROW

will gladly take a 7-3 half-time score....

thanks very much for the well wishes arrow....good health....:toast:

 

[AR182]

lost the under in the temple / ucla game & still trying to figure out how these teams combined for 51 total points when 1 team totaled 314 yds. & the other 1 totaled 282 yds....but that's the way it goes when you are going bad....this loss brings my bowl record to....2-3....on to the next play which i posted earlier today....

neb....ml....

i'm taking the better defense in this game as neb. has allowed over 4 ypc in a game twice all year.... while az has allowed less than 4 ypc only 3 times this year & that was vs weak running teams (asu #83, ucla #97, wazzu *118)....so i expect neb. to control the line of scrimmage in this game....

in addition i think az. may be flat for this game after their big win over usc at the end of the regular season....& since 1994 teams that beat usc in the final game of the season are 0-5 ats in bowl games....

i'm aware that neb. lost a tough game in the big-12 championship game, but i think they will rebound very nicely for this game as bowl teams off a loss who allow 14 or less ppg are 21-7-1(75%) vs. an opponent with at least 1 loss on the season that is off a win....

think neb. wins this game by double digits....

good luck....

 

[BadAngel]

gl AR

 

[frogster]

AR182, your picks are looking good. That is an amazing stat for Idaho and the non New Years bowl team. I am going to stick with BG and I am on the other side taking ARI, you bring up good points with NEB. I am hoping ARI can work some screens and run away from the big man, I can't spell his name...LOL. GL with your picks.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it....

i just read something that i thought was interesting concerning nebraska....their yards per point offensive number is 13, 12 in road games.... their defensive numbers are among the best in the country,allowing 25 yds. per point overall.... arizona's numbers are almost 14 yds. per point offensively, which is worse than nebraska's & 13 defensively, which is very poor....

so based on the above, nebraska's offense is a little better than arizona's & considerably better on defense....


good luck....

 

[frogster]

Well now that stat is 8 - 0, keep up the good work.

 

[frogster]

You nailed the NEB game, nice job.

 

[AR182]

thanks frogster....

with neb's win my bowl record is now 3-3....

so far for tomorrow i have 1 play & that's in the texas bowl....

i may be out of my element but i am making my first over play in college football this year & my 2nd over in all of football (won the other one)....

over 52 navy / missouri....

since the missouri qb (gabbert), has healed from an earlier season ankle injury,missouri has scored at least 32 points & passed for at least 400 yds. in each of their last 5 games (500+in the last 2) & in addition he has at least 2 td passes in 8 of their games....the wide receiver,alexander has had 8 100+ yd games, including an amazing 200+ in 3 of the last 4 games....on the other side of the ball, the navy pass defense ranks #73 in the nation, but allowd 452 yds to notre dame & 366 to hawaii, the 2 strongest passing offenses they faced this year....

we know about navy's rushing attack, but their qb, dobbs has a strong arm & some capable receivers who can make big plays & think that navy will have chances to make big plays downfield....while over the last 4 games the missouri pass defense has been very suspect allowing an average of 356 ypg, 70% completion with a 9/4 td /int ratio....

missouri is 7-0 over in road games after gaining 450or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons....the average score was missouri 39.0, opponent 38.3....

play over - any team against the total (missouri) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 ypg), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games....

since 1992 the record for this system is....27-3....90%....

the average total posted in these games was....63.6....the average total points scored in these games was....73.8....

the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19....61.3% of all games.....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....12-1....92%....


good luck....

 

[Bucknut1]

AR, Great Work!!!

:00hour

 

[AR182]

thanks buck....

adding....

under 50(120) tenn / vt....

i just read that since 1999, vt is 98-9 su (9-0 this year) when outrushing their opponents & 9-23 (0-3 this year)....so if phil steele knows this i am sure that frank beamer also knows it....this makes me think that running the ball will be a big part of vt's game plan especially since tenn. allowed 4.4 ypc to the 9 bowl teams that they faced this year....on the year vt allowed 4.2 ypc to the 8 bowl teams that they faced this year....both defenses are in the top of the nation in pass defense...

with both teams having highly respected veteran defensive coaches, i see the total not reaching past the mid 40's in this game....

good luck & happy new year....

 

[IX_Bender]

50 is such an odd number, have to ask, why pay double juice from 49- to 50?

 

[AR182]

50 is such an odd number, have to ask, why pay double juice from 49- to 50?

hi bender....

i am a very superstitious & try to stay away from 1/2 point lines when i can....since my plays are 2* i am paying $240 instead of $220....

good luck & happy new year....