COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL SEASON QUICK HITTERS
Evan Altemus
Now that the bowl match-ups have been released, speculation has already started about which teams are poised for big wins while others may be destined for blowouts. It is absolutely essential to know the situations that every bowl team is in before handicapping these games further. Predicting college bowl games is less about the x's and o's of the match-ups and more about the mind-set and other intangibles. Let's take a look at which teams to back or go against.
Fresno State - This team had BCS bowl aspirations at the start of the season, but they finished the season with a disappointing 7-5 record. The Bulldogs are now left to play in the New Mexico Bowl, a far cry from where this program expected to be at this point.
Boise State - The Broncos were hoping for an at-large BCS berth with their undefeated record. However, Utah, playing in a better overall non-BCS conference, took the at-large bid away from Boise State. Now the Broncos are left to play in the Poinsettia Bowl against one of the best non-BCS conference teams in the country in TCU. If Boise State doesn't bring maximum effort, then TCU will demolish them.
Miami - This very young team has to travel the across the country and play Cal in what is basically a home game for the Golden Bears. The Emerald Bowl is being played in San Francisco's AT&T Park, just down the road from Berkley. Miami also finished the season with two losses to fall down in the ACC standings.
N.C. State/Rutgers - It is a big disappointment to see these two teams facing each other. Both groups are the playing their best football of the season and would have been excellent selections against other teams. However, this game will be a match-up of two very improved offenses.
Missouri - The Tigers have lost all three big primetime games that they have been in this season. They had national title hopes entering the year but are now left to the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri will have a hard time getting motivated for this match-up, especially after a blowout loss to Oklahoma to end the regular season.
Nevada - This team has improved throughout the season. Three of their losses were to Missouri, Texas Tech, and Boise State, so they are much better than their record indicates. They also get to play a bowl game just up the road from their campus in Boise.
LSU - There was talk of the Tigers being national title contenders entering this year. They started out playing well, until they faced better competition. They lacked a quality quarterback, and their offense couldn't get going. In addition, they suffered a horrible loss to Arkansas to close out the season.
Alabama - They were just a few plays away from the playing in the national title game, but the Crimson Tide couldn't make the plays necessary to beat Florida. Alabama still gets to play in a BCS Bowl, but it is a far cry from the match-up against Oklahoma that they were hoping for. Now they have to face a tricky Utah team that will be very hungry.
Ohio State - This team wants badly to prove that they are able to play with other elite teams in the country. They have been embarrassed by USC, LSU, and Florida over the last few seasons on a national stage. The Buckeyes have another chance to prove how good they are, but this time they get to face a team that they match-up more favorably against. Ohio State will come to play, but will they have the offense needed to keep it close or pull out the win?
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS THOUGHT ABOUT THE OPENING BCS BOWL LINES
We moved the deadline back a bit for this article so I could report to you what sharps (professional wagerers) thought about the opening lines that went up Sunday Night in the BCS bowl games.
I can't say there was a lot of anticipation about these games. There just isn't that much excitement about Cincinnati/Virginia Tech or Utah/Alabama. Even Ohio State/Texas is getting a yawn because it's the third time they've met in recent years, and nobody takes Ohio State seriously any more after their high profile losses to Florida, LSU, and USC in recent marquee matchups.
That left the national championship game, which EVERYONE was interested in...and Penn State/USC...which gets a strong local following because the sharps have done very well betting USC in recent bowl games.
Here's a review of early interest and action starting with the biggest game and working our way down...
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: FLORIDA VS. OKLAHOMA
There was a lot of debate about who the favorite would be. Most people seemed to think it would be Florida given their recent play...and given the fact that Oklahoma has a poor recent bowl history. The public has been pounding Florida this year too. So, the sharps were figuring a higher than expected line on Florida...with the challenge being when to bet Oklahoma.
Instead, the early send out from the consultants showed Oklahoma as a 1.5 point favorite! I didn't see any books put that up though. The earliest offshore lines were at Florida by 2.5...and that got bet to Florida -3 immediately. The sharps were very pleased to get the Gators at less than a field goal at the opening. If the public drives the line up higher, they'll have a great middle. If the line shoots WAY up, some sharps may come back over the top on the Sooners. This was a very strong positioning play for the sharps. I'm very surprised the consultants to sportsbooks were suggesting Oklahoma should lay points.
Oh...I'm not saying Florida's going to win. I was telling everyone I thought Oklahoma had the best talent in the country back in September. I'm just saying that, in terms of the money strategies, opening Florida at less than a field goal leaves the books exposed to some dangerous results. The public is going to bet Florida...and the Gators really are playing well. Oklahoma has a history of playing great up through the Big 12 championship game then disappearing. In terms of how this game was going to be bet, Florida laying at least a field goal made some sense. I'm interested to see where this line settles once the public starts betting.
ROSE BOWL: USC VS. PENN STATE
Many sharps have won big bucks on USC in recent bowl games. Some of the well known guys out here made HUGE bets on what turned out to be comfortable winners. Sportsbooks were aware of that history, and posted an early number of USC by 10 right out of the gate. That will at least make the sharps think. The public will probably still bet USC at that price and higher given how easily the Trojans handled Ohio State this year (and Illinois last year).
I wouldn't be surprised if some sharps go ahead and lay the 10 this week, with hopes of buying some back at a higher price. I think many of the guys were kind of hoping others might make a move on the dog at double digits...then they could get in early at 9.5 before the public money hits. Not happening in the early hours as I write this.
Barring injuries or suspensions to USC, this is very likely to be a double digit spread come January 1st. I should note that the Under got hit by the totals guys. Early lines in the 47 to 48 range came down to 45.5 as this was going to press. USC has a great defense and an average offense. Penn State's offense hasn't faced many good defenses. I could definitely understand that move.
FIESTA BOWL: TEXAS VS. OHIO STATE
This wasn't a game that had people excited. But, when word got out that the send out was just Texas -8, many sharps were ready to lay the points. I saw -10.5 or -11 at most places early on. This game is very similar to Penn State/USC in that we've got a big name Big Ten team who may not be ready to face a true power...and a true power capable of covering big spreads. The public is going to be the favorites in those games. Sharps may come back on Ohio State if they see +13 or better. The middle opportunity wasn't here because sportsbooks ignored the low advisory and posted double digits.
ORANGE BOWL: CINCINNATI VS. VIRGINIA TECH
I can't say that sharps are excited about watching this game. They sure were excited about betting it! I saw most openers around Cincinnati -1 after the advisory had suggested pick-em. Early money came in almost exclusively on the Bearcats...driving the line up to -2 fairly quickly. Who would have thought that the popular betting game for sharps would have been this one?!
Cincinnati did close the season strong. And, Virginia Tech is one of those teams that needs turnovers to win. Sharps just won with Virginia Tech over Boston College (as did my clients!) by getting those turnovers. Maybe they didn't think they'd catch the breaks two weeks in a row. When not getting turnovers, Virginia Tech looks pretty bad most of the time.
SUGAR BOWL: UTAH VS. ALABAMA
Here we have another game with a pointspread just over 10. I'm seeing 10.5 everywhere right now, and that's where it opened. Limited action. My take from talking to sharps is that they want the big dog Utah, but are going to wait to see if they can get a better spread. There's no reason to act early here. No bandwagon will be created for the mid major. When the public bets closer to game day, the sharps will step in at +12 or better.
Why the love for Utah? It's more a sense that Alabama is going to be flat as a pancake. How can you get up for somebody like Utah when you blew your chance at an undefeated season and a national championship? Remember how poorly Oklahoma played against undersized Boise State? This isn't like last year where Georgia was in the mood to make a statement against overhyped Hawaii. There's no statement Alabama can make.
The Tide could still cover this spread. I'm just reporting what the sharps were saying about the game. I could see that line of reasoning for sure. And, I agree that there's no reason to act now.
In summary:
Florida was a sharp bet at less than a field goal, with an emphasis on creating position for later action.
Cincinnati was a sharp bet at -1 or better.
The Under in Penn State/USC w as a sharp bet at 48, 47, and even 46.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some sharps on USC -10 before long because they won't want to lay a worse number. The guys that have won with USC in the past will probably be on them again. Dog lovers looking at Utah, Ohio State, or even Penn State will wait to see where the public takes the line. A big move on Florida may encourage some sharp action on Oklahoma too.
In other words...much of the sharp action is still to come! I've reported what happened at the openers. I'll do my best to keep you updated on ALL sharp bowl action through the course of the month. That was a popular feature last season. In the coming days, look for breakdowns on a timely basis in both college and pro football.
It's easier to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp if you can see the sharps in action!
