Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[Cnotes53]

No. 23 Iowa State on a roll heading to Oklahoma State
October 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

AMES, Iowa (AP) Iowa State's young offensive players are growing up and it shows in the area that matters most.

The Cyclones are winning.

Iowa State, newly ensconced at No. 23 in the Top 25, takes a three-game winning streak into Saturday's home game with Oklahoma State, helped by an offense that is running much smoother than it did early in the season.

The Cyclones (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) have averaged 40.3 points and 456 yards over the last three games. In their two losses, to Iowa and Baylor, they averaged just 19 points and scored only 13 points in regulation in a triple overtime victory over Northern Iowa in the season opener.

So what changed?

''I don't know if there's one specific thing,'' offensive tackle Bryce Meeker said Tuesday. ''I think we knew that things were going to start clicking, we just didn't know when. I think by putting all our heads down and continuing to work, it just started to click for us.''

Coach Matt Campbell expected some early struggles because of the team's youth at the skill positions. Quarterback Brock Purdy and starting tight end Charlie Kolar are sophomores. Two sophomores and a freshman are among the top wide receivers. Breece Hall has solidified what had been an unsettled situation at running back, but he's a true freshman.

There was never any doubt about their talent. They just needed some experience to figure things out, Campbell said.

''As much as you say, boy, they're ready to go in fall camp, until you step out under the lights, until you go through failures, the ebbs and flows of the game, and have the ability to respond to that - that's part of the growing process,'' he said. ''I do think that's part of the offense's growing process a little bit, finding out who, what, how and really building from there. And I think that group's done a really nice job of building as this season's gone on.''

The turnaround actually started in the Cyclones' last loss, 23-21 at Baylor. Trailing 20-0 after three quarters, Iowa State ripped off three touchdowns in an 11-minute span to take the lead, but could not stop a Baylor drive that led to the game-winning field goal.

Since then, Iowa State has put up point totals of 49, 38 and 24 in beating TCU, West Virginia and Texas Tech, all by double figures.

''Honestly, coach got on us that we've got to get off to a start from the get-go,'' Purdy said. ''It can't be late in the second half. I felt like the first couple of games in the season we were waiting and waiting rather than, boom, attack from the beginning. I just feel like our mindset switched in the last couple of games on getting off to a good start.''

Iowa State has trailed only once in the last three games, falling behind West Virginia 7-0 before storming back to win 38-14.

''I think we had it inside of us the whole time,'' Meeker said. ''I just think we had to combine everything that we knew and continue to work. We knew we had to change something and we did.''

Hall's emergence certainly has helped. After carrying only 18 times in the first four games, he ran for 132 yards and three touchdowns at West Virginia and was even better last week at Texas Tech, amassing 183 yards on just 19 carries and adding 73 yards receiving. He broke a 75-yard touchdown run in that game, the longest by an Iowa State player since 2015.

Purdy leads the Big 12 in passing yards and is second in passing efficiency, sophomore Tarique Milton is fifth in receiving yards and Kolar is tied for eighth nationally in receiving yards by a tight end.

''It will be fascinating to see where this group can be by the time the season ends,'' Campbell said. ''Can it make that couple of huge strides it will have to if we're going to be the best team we can be down the stretch run?''

 

[Cnotes53]

Edwards exceeds expectations, Kelly disappoints in 2nd year
October 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

When Chip Kelly and Herm Edwards were hired, many praised UCLA for being able to beat Florida for Kelly's services and criticized Arizona State for hiring a former NFL coach who had not been on the sidelines since 2008.

Nearly two years later those perceptions have changed. Edwards has the Sun Devils on the cusp of bowl eligibility for the second straight season while Kelly and the Bruins have sunk to the lower tiers of the Pac-12.

Going into Saturday's game at the Rose Bowl, Edwards has the second-best record of the conference's five second-year coaches while Kelly is tied for the worst mark. Oregon's Mario Cristobal is at the top of the heap, though, with the Ducks leading the North Division.

With the second half of the season getting ready to start, here is a look at how the second-year conference coaches are faring:

Mario Cristobal (Oregon, 15-6)

Cristobal's success in recruiting was a big reason he was promoted when Willie Taggart left after one season for Florida State, but he is also beginning to show that he can be successful in big games.

The Ducks were 2-3 in conference road games last season but rallied for a 35-31 win at Washington last Saturday to take control of the North. No. 11 Oregon (6-1, 4-0 Pac-12) - which has the likely conference Offensive Player of the Year in QB Justin Herbert - hosts Washington State on Saturday and still has key road games against USC (Nov. 2) and Arizona State (Nov. 16).

Cristobal likes how his team has played in difficult situations.

''The harder it gets, the better we play,'' he said after the Washington win, ''It has taken a lot to get to this point but our discipline has to carry over.''

---

Herm Edwards (Arizona State, 12-8)

The 24th-ranked Sun Devils showed their youth in a 21-3 loss at No. 12 Utah .

For as well as Arizona State has played this season, the Sun Devils have done it starting five true freshmen (fourth-highest in the country). Jaylen Daniels completed only four of 18 passes for 28 yards and was held to eight yards rushing. Freshmen have been responsible for three-fourths of their offensive yards (second-most in the nation).

Edwards is pleased his team has established ''competitive consistency,'' meaning they have had the chance to win the game in the second half each week. Now he wants to see how his team handles adversity.

''We're in our second year, make no mistake, we haven't had a lot of potholes yet,'' he said. ''Utah hit us in the mouth and beat us up. Now we're going to find out a lot about ourselves and where this team is at.''

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Kevin Sumlin (Arizona, 9-10)

Sumlin has not had the same early success that he had at Texas A&M or Houston. Some of it can be attributed to injuries, but quarterback Khalil Tate has not played consistently at the level he did two years ago.

''We want to win now. Everyone wants it right now including me. The two ways to get better in my opinion are recruiting and player development,'' he said. ''We've increased our depth, which has reaped some dividends early this year, especially on the defensive line.''

The Wildcats (4-3, 2-2) have dropped two straight going into Saturday's game at Stanford.

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Oregon State's Jonathan Smith (5-14)

Smith is the only one who has not been a head coach at another school, but he has brought hope and optimism to his alma mater. Last Saturday's 21-17 win at California marks the first time since 2013 the Beavers have won two straight conference road games.

The Beavers (3-4, 2-2) have a bye week before traveling to Arizona on Nov. 2. Oregon State still has games against Washington and Oregon, which makes its chances of winning three of its last five to get bowl eligibly unlikely but there is still an outside shot of another win or two.

''It's satisfying for sure. These guys are working hard, and they're trusting us and trusting the process,'' Smith said.

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Chip Kelly (UCLA, 5-14)

Last Thursday's 34-16 win at Stanford was the most complete game the Bruins have played this season. It also slightly turned down Kelly's hot seat.

UCLA (2-5, 2-2) has the second-highest percentage of freshmen on its roster in the nation (52.8%), but no one expected Kelly to get off to the worst start by a Bruins coach since Harry Trotter went 2-13-1 from 1920-22.

Kelly has been consistent in asking for patience, but with a $20.3 million contract and declining attendance at the Rose Bowl, many are getting frustrated. Kelly has a $9 million buyout, though.

''I think every day we are working to improve, that is part of developing a young team,'' he said. ''You have to develop them over time. When you see flashes with young teams how does it become second nature?''

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 9 Upset Alerts
October 23, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Considering last week's college football landscape was shaken up with numerous big upsets across the land, going 1-1-1 ATS with my three selections and having no outright winners is actually pretty disappointing. Had you waited until later in the week and caught one of those +6.5's that were hung on Maryland for awhile, you could have been 2-1 ATS, but the Terrapins did enough to earn a push in their six-point loss to Indiana there.

And when there were a couple of +20 and greater underdogs to win their games outright (Illinois, Vanderbilt), backing a Nevada team that looked like they wanted to part of dealing with the cold weather at night in Utah was the biggest disappointment. The Wolf Pack were just a backdoor score away from getting inside the number for most of that game, but quitting early in the 4th quarter slammed that backdoor shut rather early as they allowed Utah State to pull away.

The lone win on the week came courtesy of New Mexico as they had little trouble staying within the number against an offensively challenge Wyoming squad. In hindsight, that lofty spread of nearly 20 points with a team that struggles to score like the Cowboys reminds me a lot of what Buffalo Bills backers had to deal with this week laying -17 against the Dolphins. Sometimes teams just aren't capable enough offensively to cover big numbers and that proved to be the case in both of those situations.

It's on to this week's selections though, and all of them have a common thread. That is, while the validity of getting caught in ?look ahead? games can be up for debate in terms of how important those spots may be before the game, after the fact, it's hard to deny that some teams that slip up did indeed get caught looking past a certain opponent and ahead to a better one.

And while I am on the side that suggests look ahead games/spots do exist, I am more of the mindset that when teams do get caught in those spots, they are the teams you want to back when said look ahead game finally arrives. The logic there is that the team's focus has already been on that foe for awhile, there is likely value in the market backing them when coming off a disappointing performance, and the majority of the market only looks to fade these squads because of that recent SU and/or ATS blunder.

With that in mind, here are the three teams that I believe fit that line of thought in varying degrees, as hopefully at least one of them can pull off the outright upset as well.
Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-7 SU; 5-2-1 ATS

Miami (+5.5) vs Pittsburgh
This is probably the game where it wouldn't take much convincing to suggest that the Hurricanes aren't a program that ?looks ahead? to Pittsburgh, because I'm not completely sure they did either. But the Miami/Pitt rivalry has taken on more of a big-game feel in recent years, ever since Pitt managed to knock off this Hurricanes program in late-2017 to give the Hurricanes their first loss on the year, knock them out of the CFP Playoff conversation, and ultimately ruin what was a great campaign for Miami up until that point.

Furthermore, I don't think you can deny that the Hurricanes took Georgia Tech rather lightly last week as a near 20-point home favorite. Miami couldn't get anything done in the second half of that game, continually shot themselves in the foot with missed opportunities everywhere (missed FG, unable to keep drives extended, fumbled in end zone for a Georgia Tech TD) and just never came close to sniffing an ATS win. Granted, the 2019 version of Miami may not be a good team in general, but the ACC Coastal division is still a wide open race for the most part, and even at 1-3 SU in the conference, the Hurricanes still have plenty in front of them to make the most of this 2019 season.

Pitt is one of those teams the Hurricanes will have to go through to get there, and with Pittsburgh's stock value in the market basically increasing every week since they held tough against what now appears to be a great Penn State team, the Panthers are a great 'sell high' team now. Since that seven-point loss to Penn State, Pitt has gone on to end UCF's near 30-game regular season win streak, had a lazy win against FCS Delaware, and went out on the road and knocked off Duke and Syracuse in successive weeks. Everyone loves a winner and Pitt's 5-1 ATS run (5-1 SU) coming into this week's game is something many would prefer to get behind relative to what they've seen from Miami of late.

However, these two teams do have one common foe on their resumes already ? both hosted Virginia this year ? and Pitt went into that game as 2.5-point underdogs while Miami was laying that number against the Cavaliers. Yes, the timing of playing Virginia does matter in terms of context given that Pitt opened their season against Virginia, but the Panthers got smoked by 16 points on their home field in that game, while Miami got a late score to win by eight a couple of weeks ago. That only adds to the notion that Miami's a great ?buy low? team in this spot, and buying low (Miami) and selling high (Pittsburgh) are great betting situations to get behind.
Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
YTD: 1-7 SU; 2-6 ATS

Wisconsin (+14.5) vs Ohio State
If you've read these pieces from the start of the college football season, you'll know that a few of the losses that have piled up have come courtesy of fading Ohio State at big numbers. But after a couple of weeks in a row of avoiding Buckeyes games completely, I'm taking another crack at seeing Ohio State's 6-0 ATS run come to an end with Wisconsin coming to town.

Wisconsin was on the wrong end of the ?upset of the week? last week, as their trip to Illinois last Saturday ended up with the Badgers ? as a 30-point road favorite ? losing to a team that's coached by Santa Claus. The loss made all the highlight shows, humiliating Wisconsin over and over again with how poorly they played in that game. That kind of embarrassment is something I don't mind seeing at all in terms of wanting to back the team the following outing, because as I touched on with Miami, the stock price in Wisconsin dropped dramatically after last week.

And while nobody outside of that Wisconsin locker room knows for sure if they were looking past Illinois and ahead to this Ohio State game, it's pretty easy to assume that was the case given the line (-30) and results (SU loss) of that game.

Now that look ahead game with Ohio State has arrived, and I fully expect this Wisconsin team ? that owns four shutout wins already this year ? to be at their best on both sides of the ball and give this Ohio State team all they can handle. Even with last week's embarrassing loss, Wisconsin is the most complete team on both sides of the ball that Ohio State has faced so far this season, and quite frankly this is too many points to give them in this role.

It's understandable that oddsmakers had to put out a number like this after the Illinois loss, but had Wisconsin won that game by 30 as expected, what do you think this spread vs Ohio State would actually look like? I'd venture a guess it would be in the single digits, and this just presents the ultimate buy low opportunity that there is. As a bettor you can't last past failures betting against a particular team stop you from betting against them again in the future ? it's always better to bet numbers not teams ? and while Ohio State has knocked the bankroll down numerous times this season, I do think we get some of that back with Bucky Badger on Saturday.
Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 2-6 ATS

California (+21.5) vs Utah
California is still in the youthful changes of changing the culture and turning that football program around under HC Justin Wilcox, and they might not be considered ?good enough? yet to really look past one foe and ahead to another. Wilcox has built this team to be a stout defensive squad that can hang around against more talented teams with that unit, and hopefully that's what they can do this week when they travel to Utah.

Given that the Golden Bears fell flat as -10 favorites at home vs Oregon State last week ? losing outright 21-17 ? I do think there was some inkling of them taking the Beavers lightly and looking ahead to this game vs a ranked Utah team. That, and that Oregon State game was sandwiched between facing Oregon and Utah on the road, and if you want your program to take the next step in development, showing up and showing out against quality foes like that is a must. California were able to give Oregon all they could handle from a defensive standpoint in the 17-7 Ducks win ? covering the number as +21.5 underdogs ? and this game vs Utah should play out to a similar tune.

Utah prefers to play defensive slugfests as it is, and while they have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three by holding their foes to 13 or fewer points, the defenses that Washington State, Oregon State, and Arizona State have don't compare at all to what California brings to the table. This game has a sub-40 total as it is (37.5), so points will be at a premium, and like I mentioned at the open, sometimes when games are lined that way ? like Wyoming/New Mexico last week or Miami/Buffalo in the NFL ? it's really hard not to like the points given that it's simply too big of a number for the favorite to cover.

Even something like a 28-7 Utah win gets us an ATS win by the hook with California here, and given the notion that this should be a strong bounce back spot for California as it is, along with Utah having a road trip to Washington on deck, grab the points here.

 

[Cnotes53]

Duke-UNC matchup headlines Week 9 in ACC
October 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

Here are things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 9:

GAME OF THE WEEK

Duke at North Carolina. The ACC's highest-profile basketball rivalry takes center stage in football with significant ramifications in the cloudy Coastal Division. The Blue Devils (4-3, 2-2) and the Tar Heels (3-4, 2-2) are both in the mix behind division leaders Virginia and Pittsburgh with the loser seemingly playing itself out of the race. Duke has won three straight in the series, a run that coincided with current New York Giants QB Daniel Jones' time as the starter, and is looking for its first four-game winning streak against North Carolina since the 1950s.

BEST MATCHUP

Virginia defense vs. Louisville offense. The Cavaliers' defense has kept them in control of the Coastal Division race, ranking second in the conference in each of the four main stat categories and holding five of the seven opponents to 17 or fewer points. They'll face a test from a big-play Louisville offense under new coach Scott Satterfield. The Cardinals averaged 490.5 total yards through six games before they were held to 263 yards by No. 4 Clemson, and they lead the league with 23 plays of 30 or more yards and 15 that have gone for 40-plus yards. Virginia has allowed an ACC-fewest three 40-yard plays on the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

An argument could be made that the ACC is the most competitive of the power conferences. The average margin of victory in league games is 13.9 points - the closest of any of the five major conferences - and more than half of the 27 ACC games played so far have been decided by eight or fewer points. Eight of them have been decided by a field goal or less, the most of any major conference.

LONG SHOT

Perhaps Syracuse can find a way to keep it close as a 10+-point underdog against Florida State. It's been a disappointing year for the Orange (3-4, 0-3), who started the season in the national rankings but now find themselves as the only ACC team without a conference victory. The Seminoles are dealing with even more injuries - WR Ontaria Wilson (shoulder) is the latest to go down - heading into this matchup of desperate Atlantic Division teams. Florida State has played four one-score games, going 1-3 in them.

IMPACT PLAYER

North Carolina QB Sam Howell has been tough to stop during his freshman season with the Tar Heels. Howell matched a school record with five touchdown passes in last week's six-overtime loss to Virginia Tech, and has reached the 300-yard mark in three of his last four games. Next up is a Duke team that has held six straight opponents to fewer than 270 yards passing.


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Tar Heels' freshman Sam Howell moving to top of ACC's QBs
October 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

Sam Howell has moved well past freshman-level studies at North Carolina.

He is playing his way to the top of the class of Atlantic Coast Conference's quarterbacks.

Howell leads the ACC with 20 touchdown passes after tying the North Carolina record with five in last week's 43-41, six-overtime loss to Virginia Tech. He passed for 348 yards with no interceptions and was named the conference's top quarterback of the week for the third time this season.

For North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo, it's more proof that Howell is no ordinary first-year quarterback. He said Howell is ''beyond the 101 stage'' of lessons.

''I mean, Sam, he studies the game, he cares, he's passionate about it,'' Longo said Monday. ''That's all part of what makes him as good as he is right now, and we still have things we need to get better at. But I really like where the process is and I like the fact that he accepts just about every challenge I give him.''

Howell was a unanimous selection for the ACC's top freshman of the first half of the season in balloting by The Associated Press writers covering the conference. It was the only unanimous vote of nine categories.

He has set a school record for touchdown passes by a freshman while throwing only three interceptions. He is a key to coach Mack Brown's rebuilding effort at North Carolina (3-4, 2-2 ACC) entering Saturday's game against Duke (4-3, 2-2).

In addition to Howell's sweep of the top freshman vote, here are some of the ACC's best - and worst - of the season so far in voting by AP writers:

COACH OF THE FIRST HALF

Dave Clawson, Wake Forest. Clawson's Demon Deacons, picked to finish sixth in the Atlantic, are 6-1 overall, 2-1 in the ACC and ranked No. 25. Also receiving votes: Scott Satterfield, Louisville; Dabo Swinney, Clemson.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE FIRST HALF

Jamie Newman, QB, Wake Forest. Newman leads the league in passing efficiency and his average of 295.3 yards passing per game. Also receiving votes: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson; AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College; Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest; Howell.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE FIRST HALF

Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson. Simmons, a junior, leads the Tigers with 5 1/2 sacks and 49 tackles. He ranks among the league's top six leaders in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks. Also receiving votes: Rayshard Ashby, LB, Virginia Tech; Jaylen Twyman, DT, Pittsburgh.

MOST SURPRISING TEAM

Coming off a 2-10 season, Louisville (4-3, 2-2) edged Wake Forest as the biggest surprise of the first half. Led by first-year coach Satterfield, the former Appalachian State coach, Louisville took wins over Boston College and Wake Forest in consecutive weeks. Also receiving votes: Wake Forest, North Carolina, Pittsburgh.

MOST SURPRISING PLAYER

Surratt. A dominant season for the third-year sophomore continued when he had seven catches for 170 yards in a 22-20 win over Florida State last week. He already has four games with at least 150 yards this season and leads the league in most receiving statistics, including nine scoring catches. Also receiving votes: Howell, Newman.

MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM

Syracuse (3-4, 0-3) is the only team without an ACC win. This follows a 10-win season in 2018. Coach Dino Babers is encouraged the Orange have been close in most games. He said there could be lineup changes in this week's game against Florida State. Also receiving votes: Miami.

HOTTEST SEAT

Willie Taggart, Florida State. The loss to Wake Forest last week left the Seminoles (3-4, 2-3) with losing records overall and in the conference for the second straight season. He is 8-11 in two seasons at Florida State. Also receiving votes: Steve Addazio, Boston College.

BIGGEST INJURY

Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia. Hall led the nation in 22 pass breakups last season. He was a preseason year and a midseason All-America pick this season despite suffering a season-ending ankle injury in a loss at Miami on Oct. 11. Also receiving votes: Anthony Brown, QB, Boston College.

 

[Cnotes53]

SMU heads to Houston as G5 leader
October 23, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Sonny Dykes knows No. 16 SMU just needs to keep winning games. He is not really concerned right now about the Mustangs being the highest-ranked Group of Five team and what that could eventually mean if they stay that way.

''I don't know that we understand any of that right now,'' Dykes said. ''I think the thing with us ... we talked about this at length with our guys. Everybody will kick us to the curb pretty fast.''

SMU (7-0, 3-0 American Athletic), off to its best start since the Pony Express days in 1982 before the NCAA death penalty, plays at Houston (3-4, 1-2) on Thursday night in a matchup of coaches who have known each other for a long time.

After that, the Mustangs then go to Memphis on Nov. 2, which will be their last game before the first College Football Playoff rankings come out. Those rankings determine who plays for the national championship, and also sets the matchups for the New Year's Six games - the highest-ranked team outside the Power Five conferences will play in the Cotton Bowl this season.

''There's a higher standard that what we have to play to, and when you're not in a Power Five conference, that's part of it. We understand that,'' Dykes said. ''We're in a daily fight for respect, and at the same time we've got to deserve it, and we have to play at a really high level. We know that.''

With former Texas quarterback Shane Buechele, the Mustangs have scored at least 41 points in their last games. He is coming off a career-high 457 yards passing with six touchdowns in a win over Temple.

Houston is 2-1 since standout dual-threat quarterback D'Eriq King and receiver Keith Corbin decided after the fourth game that they were redshirting the remainder of this season to save a year of eligibility.

Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune has been dealing with a pulled hamstring for almost a month and could be ready to play on the short week after not playing in a win at UConn when freshman Logan Holgorsen, the son of coach Dana Holgorsen, was the starter.

Tune got hurt Sept. 28 against North Texas in his first start and was still limited against No. 18 Cincinnati despite an open date before that game.

''I feel good about it. I think everybody that understands that he came back after having a bye week. He had time to be able to recover. Then he played against Cincinnati,'' Dana Holgorsen said. ''A week later, we probably could've played him, but it was going to be a recurring thing every single week.''

ON THE SAME STAFF

Holgorsen is in his first year as Houston's head coach after eight seasons at West Virginia, while former California and Louisiana Tech coach Dykes is in his second season at SMU. The two were on Texas Tech's staff together for head coach Mike Leach from 2000-06, a stretch when the Red Raiders won 56 games and went to a bowl game each of those seven seasons.

FORMER HORNS

Houston running back Kyle Porter and Buechele spent three seasons together at Texas and are have having success with their new teams. Buechele has thrown for 2,122 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. Porter is Houston's leading rusher with 448 yards and has scored three touchdowns.

''He went to Texas and played early, you could tell he was one of those guys who had been in the system like we all tried to run,'' Holgorsen said of Buechele. ''I knew as soon as it was announced that he was going to SMU that it could be the difference in SMU's season. He is playing really well, he is accurate and he understands the game.''

RANKED ON THE ROAD

Houston will be looking to return the favor to a ranked Mustangs team playing on the road. The last two times the Cougars played at SMU, they were ranked and lost - 45-31 last year, after a 38-16 setback in 2016 that knocked then-No. 11 Houston all the way out of the poll.

BIG D JERSEYS

The Mustangs will wear their Dallas-themed jerseys for the nationally televised game, a nod to the city and those who suffered losses after storms ripped through the Dallas area Sunday night. Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson reached out to SMU President R. Gerald Turner about the possibility. The ''Dallas'' script across the front of the jersey pays homage to SMU alum and AFL founder Lamar Hunt and the Dallas Texans.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Monty Andrews


DEVITO BACK IN CHARGE

Tommy DeVito has been listed as the starting quarterback for Syracuse's Saturday encounter with Florida State, though you could hardly blame the guy for wanting a breather.

DeVito was knocked out of last Friday's home loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the third quarter after taking repeated hard hits. he was sacked nine times in all in that defeat, bringing the Orange's season total to a whopping 35 sacks ? easily the most in the country. Clayton Welsh will be on standby if any further damage is done to DeVito, who has thrown for 1,635 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.

The Seminoles come in having recorded just two total sacks in their past three games, but they had six versus Louisville on September 21, and this Syracuse offensive line is even worse. We like the home team to cover as a double-digit favorite.


HUNTLEY NOT DONE YET

Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley might not play this weekend against visiting California, but he hasn't been lost for the season. Huntley took some punishing hits in last week's win over Arizona State and is dealing with an upper-body injury that was first thought to be season ending.

But Huntley will reportedly return at some point this season and, though there was some question over his available for this weekend, Huntley told reporters he plans on facing the Golden Bears. Huntley has been sensational so far this season with 1,564 passing yards and nine touchdown passes against just one interception.

Huntley might be at full strength this weekend but there's a good chance he won't be, and it's hard to see him leading Utah to 30-plus points against a Cal team that hasn't allowed that many in a game all season. We favor the Under on Utah's team total.


MORE HELP FOR JOE?

Joe Burrow's Heisman Trophy candidacy has a full head of steam and the LSU quarterback might be in for another boost this weekend.

Wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. is hoping to return versus Auburn Saturday for his first game action since suffering a foot injury in the Tigers' September 21 victory over Vanderbilt. And while the Tigers' offense hasn't missed a beat in Marshall's absence ? averaging an incredible 50.1 points per game on the season ? the return of Marshall should make things even tougher on opposing defenses. Marshall has 20 receptions for 304 yards and six touchdowns on the year.

Marshall's comeback should solidify Burrow as the man to beat in the Heisman race, but it does put a damper on the props for the Tigers' two other marquee receivers. This might be a good weekend to fade both Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase on their respective yardage props, particularly against a challenging Tigers defense.


WELCOME BACK!

The Maryland Terrapins will be undoubtedly thrilled to have running back Anthony McFarland Jr. at full strength for Saturday's encounter with host Minnesota.

McFarland missed last week's loss to Indiana and played just four snaps the week before in a defeat at Purdue after suffering an ankle injury. However, head coach Mike Locksley says he expects the redshirt sophomore to be back in action against the Golden Gophers. McFarland is having a terrific season with the Terrapins, rushing for 340 yards and seven touchdowns (on 5.2 yards per carry) while adding nine catches for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Maryland is 2-1 SU and ATS in three games this season in which McFarland has rushed for 75-plus yards and while the Gophers have a stout defense, the Terrapins should do enough on offense to cover as 17-point underdogs.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SMU at HOU 07:30 PM

HOU +13.5******

U 65.5*****

 

[Cnotes53]

Buechele, Jones lead No. 16 SMU past Houston, 34-31
October 24, 2019

HOUSTON (AP) Shane Buechele threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns, Xavier Jones ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns and No. 16 SMU held off Houston 34-31 on Thursday night.

Buechele was 20 of 38. James Proche caught seven passes for 83 yards and a touchdown, and Kylen Grayson had six receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown for SMU (8-0, 4-0 American).

Jones had a career-long 62-yard rushing touchdown with 10:41 left in the second quarter and added a 2-yard scoring run 47 seconds into the second half after SMU forced a Houston fumble and Richard McBryde recovered it.

Houston's Clayton Tune finished 18 of 35 for a career-high 407 yards and two touchdowns. Mulbah Car rushed for 136 yards on 18 carries. Marquez Stevenson had five catches for 211 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard score.

Bryson Smith added a 1-yard TD run to start the second quarter.

Houston (3-5, 1-3) outgained SMU, 510-385 yards.

Houston closed to 34-31 on a 96-yard touchdown pass from Tune to Stevenson and added a 2-point conversion with 4:47 left. After Houston forced an SMU punt, the Mustangs forced a turnover on downs at the Houston 45. Houston forced another SMU punt, but Tune was sacked at midfield to end the game.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

SMU should maintain its position in the poll following the win over Houston.

ROBINSON EJECTED FOR TARGETING

SMU's Delano Robinson was ejected for targeting late in the first quarter after hitting Christian Trahan after Trahan missed Tune's pass. Robinson was called for unnecessary roughness with targeting and the play was confirmed after review.

THE TAKEAWAY

SMU: SMU kept its hopes of playing in a New Years' Six bowl alive. The Mustangs took advantage of Houston's three turnovers, converting them into 14 points. SMU had seven sacks for 51 yards and 13 tackles for loss.

Houston: The Cougars played well defensively, but committed three turnovers and 11 penalties for 129 yards. Houston had 22 first downs and had the ball for almost 32 minutes, but also had issues holding on to the ball, with five fumbles, losing the ball twice.

UP NEXT

SMU: At Memphis on Nov. 2.

Houston: At UCF on Nov. 2,

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/24/2019................2-0-0........100.00% ..........+10.00
10/19/2019.............20-31-0.........39.22%............-70.50
10/18/2019................7-1-0.........87.50%...........+29.50
10/17/2019................3-1-0.........75.00%............+9.50
10/16/2019................1-1-0.........50.00%..............-0.50
10/12/2019.............27-22-0.........55.10%..........+14.00
10/11/2019................2-4-0.........33.33%............-12.00
10/10/2019................0-4-0...........0.00%............-22.00
10/09/2019................1-1-0..........50.00%.............-0.50
10/05/2019.............34-31-0..........52.30%.............-0.50
10/04/2019................2-2-0...........50.00%............-1.00
10/03/2019................1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
..

Totals...................100-101-0.........49.75%............-55.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/24/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
10/19/2019............12 - 24.........-72.00.............8 - 2..............+1.50..............-70.50
10/18/2019.............3 - 0...........+15.00.............2 - 1.............+4.50..............+19.50
10/17/2019..............1 - 1...........-0.50...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+9.50
10/16/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-0.50
10/12/2019............19 - 14.........+18.00............7 - 7..............-3.50..............+14.50
10/11/2019.............1 - 2............-6.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............0 - 2..............-11.00............-22.00
10/09/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 -0..............+5.00..............-0.50
10/05/2019............23 - 21..........-0.50..............12 - 8.............+16.00...........+15.50
10/04/2019.............1 - 1............-0.50................1 - 1..............-0.50..............-1.00
10/03/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............1 - 2..............-6.00..............-17.00


Totals....................61 - 45.........-84.50.............36 - 24............+20.50............-64.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Moves - Week 9
October 24, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 9 Total Moves

I'm now on a three-week run of splitting these total plays, as last week's selections on the 'over' in Georgia Tech/Miami eventually got there after a 1st half that looked like it would get there with ease, and Wisconsin/Illinois ended up falling short.

The Illini did their part as expected in putting up 20+ points, but Wisconsin's offense no-showed in the latter half of that game as they got really tight and ultimately exposed when the game got close. Hopefully for Badgers fans it was nothing more then Wisconsin taking a lesser opponent extremely lightly with Ohio State on deck, but to lose outright as a 30-point favorite is very disturbing no matter how you try to spin it.

Three straight weeks of basically breaking even is rather frustrating though, and as dumb as it may sound from a bottom line perspective, I would like to see a result one way or the other this week. With multiple total moves I've found to disagree with this week, we are bumping up the plays to three this week to get a definitive result, and let's hope that the change in approach doesn't lead to my ass getting spanked with the oddsmakers broom.

YTD: 9-7 ATS

Week 9 Total move(s) to disagree with:
Virginia/Louisville from 55 to 52
I would venture a guess that part of this move downwards has to do with the rainy forecast Louisville's got this weekend, but rain is always something you can look at both ways ? it could hinder offenses, but also lead to multiple turnovers and short fields ? although I never look at rain as that big of a deal.

However, this team has started to find a bit of something on offense lately, scoring 22 or more points in each of their last two games, and three of their past four, after opening the year needing three grams to crack the 14-point barrier. Miami's defense is quite good and overall should not have much issue holding the Jackets down, but it's also going to be tough for them to be overly sharp mentally coming off a national prime time game against a ranked foe. The Hurricanes are expected to win this game rather easily as 18-point chalk, but easy wins don't necessarily mean said team will hold their foes off the score sheet as well.

Granted, Virginia's offense may have erupted last week in a 48-14 win over Duke and some bettors may have a hard time figuring that's going to happen two weeks in a row, but the Cavaliers likely only need about half of that 48 number ? against a defense that's allowed 45, 59, 39, and 35 points in their last four games ? to likely get over this total that's moved far too much.

Yes, Louisville's offense looked very poor last week in scoring only 10 points vs Clemson, but who in the ACC does look like an offensive juggernaut against the Tigers. I'm sure many expected a much better performance from Louisville offensively after seeing them put up 62 vs Wake the week before, and 41 vs Boston College the week before that, and probably got burned on either Louisville ATS and/or the 'over' because of it. But that's just one of the pitfalls of the ?betting teams and not numbers? approach so many defacto GM's in this business swear by, and it causes them to either miss out on great spots further down the road and/or overreact to a number like appears to be the case here.

Interestingly enough, a pattern that we've seen this year for teams following facing that vaunted Clemson defense is that the chains tend to come off offensively and points come in bunches. A new-look Georgia Tech team only scored 14 points the week after falling to Clemson, but that was a Week 2 game where the Yellow Jackets were still adjusting to life after the triple-option.

The other teams that have followed since then have come up with 62 points (Texas A&M), 52 points (Syracuse), 27 points (Charlotte), 38 points (North Carolina) and 20 points (Florida State) the game after facing Clemson. That's good enough for an average of 39.8 points per game for those five squads and Louisville does have an offense to do that type of damage.

Obviously a talented Virginia defense will have plenty to say about that, but a 31-28 type game here isn't a big stretch at all. With Louisville on a 8-2 O/U run when coming off a loss as a program, and Virginia on a 7-2 O/U run away from home against a winning home team, this game should sail over the current number of 52, and probably the opener of 55 as well as long as the projected rain isn't too heavy for too long. That's a risk I'm willing to take here.

Auburn/LSU from 58.5 to 59.5
Not the biggest mover of the week by any means, but with LSU scoring 42 or more in all of their home games so far this year and QB Joe Burrow being a Heisman favorite now, you can understand where the love for the high side of this total is coming from. But as I've said before, understanding why a move has happened and agreeing with it are two very different things, and given the caliber of defense these two SEC rivals bring to the table, I'm not sure we see this total get as high as it seems many expect.

Yes, LSU's offense has looked spectacular every week this year, and Auburn is coming off a game where they put up 51 in an easy win over Arkansas, but this game should see only the winner get to 30 points, if either of them get that high.

Auburn's already had two other 50+ point performances already this season and in the following game they managed just 28 and 13 points respectively, going 1-1 O/U in the process. The 'over' came just by the hook on a closing total of 47.5 so take that for what it's worth.

The 13 points they had vs Florida's defense is rather comparable to what they'll see from LSU this week, and I'm sure their own defense will have some exotic looks to throw at Burrow and company as well. Not one of the past three meetings between these two programs has finished with more than 50 total points scored, and while LSU's offense this year is light years ahead of where they've been in recent seasons, this game topping out at 50 or 51 points is where I see it landing.

Week 9 Total move to agree with:
Indiana/Nebraska from 54.5 to 52
As is always the case with this portion of this weekly piece, betting into bad numbers is always tough to stomach, but any total above 51 here still seems a bit high.

Nebraska's offense is essentially non-existent these days as they have no real identity and no confidence in the ones they are trying on. The Cornhuskers have put up a grand total of 27 points in their last three games combined ? and never more than 13 poitns in a single game ? and have easily cashed 'under' tickets in all three. Yes, Indiana's defense is softer then the likes of Ohio State, Northwestern, and Minnesota ? Nebraska's last three opponents ? but with them potentially starting a third string QB here, how anxious are the Cornhuskers to get into a track meet style of game.

At the same time, Indiana has not cashed two consecutive 'overs' all year, and after creeping over the number a week ago in a win over Maryland, I'm not sure the Hoosiers offense ? which has put up 30+ in four straight games.

 

[Cnotes53]

USC at Colorado
October 22, 2019
By Matt Blunt

USC at Colorado

Venue/Location: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 25 (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Line: USC -13.5, Total 62

Recent Meetings:
2018: USC (-7) 31 vs. Colorado 20, Under 57.5
2017: USC (-14) 38 at Colorado 24, Over 61.5
2016: USC (-5) 21 vs. Colorado 17, Under 62.5

After Friday nights in September were often highlighted by Pac-12 action, this week the conference gets to stand alone in the spotlight as the USC Trojans travel to Colorado to take on a beleaguered Buffaloes team that hopes a return to home soil will return the fight in the squad. Colorado's been outscored 86-10 in their last two games ? road losses to Oregon and Washington State ? and are catching double digits for the third straight week with USC in town.

There weren't many positives to take from those two defeats if you're Colorado, but the good news is that at home this year they own a 2-2 SU record with the two defeats coming either in OT or by just five points. That suggests that they may actually be able to hang around with this USC team on Friday night ? especially if the home field support can be loud, boisterous and prove to be a factor.

The question you've got to ask yourself when breaking down this game is if that indeed will be the case for Colorado in this spot, as situationally there are a few things working in their favor. That number is quite hefty for a Trojans team to cover away from home when it comes down to it.

So after last week's best bets split the board, let's dive into this contest to see if we can find a winner for another edition of ?Pac-12 After Dark.?

From a USC perspective, it's hard to look much better then they did last week in their thorough beating of Arizona (41-14) to easily cover the 10 points they were giving up. The final box score in terms of yardage numbers may not suggest the game was as big of a blowout as the final score does ? thanks to numerous turnovers from Arizona ? but the game was never in question after the first half was finished, and it was a nice way for the Trojans to bounce back after tough losses to Washington and Notre Dame prior.

Yet, it's extremely hard to look that good two weeks in a row if you are the Trojans, especially when you are out on the road again where you are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS this year. Road struggles can be the norm when you've got talented young guy(s) starting at QB, and until the Trojans prove they can go out and be as successful as they are at home, laying this kind of chalk is hard to stomach. And that's before we even get into the potential look-ahead angle that the Trojans could be facing here with a home game against Oregon ? the highest ranked Pac-12 team ? on deck.

Passing on laying the chalk with USC doesn't necessarily mean I'm grabbing the points with Colorado here either.

Sure, Colorado's got the benefit of being at home where they've played much better football all year, could catch a napping USC team looking past them and the like. But the Buffaloes have given up at least 30 points in all seven of their games this year, and that number has risen to 40+ the past two weeks. Even with a double digit underdog, you do want to have some inkling that they could potentially win the game outright, and giving up 30+ every week definitely makes that hard. Situationally, it does make sense to take the points with Colorado, but passing on the side is ultimately where I fall.

Instead, it's that idea that you can pencil in 30+ points for a Colorado opponent that I'm looking to take advantage of with the total, as it's not like USC isn't capable of doing that as it is. USC averages 30.7 points per game on the year already, and barring numerous turnovers themselves, should be able to be the third straight Colorado opponent to at least threaten that 40-point number.

At the same time, USC on the road has given up 30, 28, and 30 points in their three losses, so we should expect Colorado's offense to find success as well. The Buffaloes are a better team at home in the sense that the offense does move the ball, scoring 52, 34, 23, and 30 points in their four home games already this year. That's good for an average of 34.75 points per home game, and while the Trojans are the best team they've faced in this spot, asking them to put up 25+ isn't unreasonable either. I mean, all we've got to see in that case is both teams play to their averages based on the setting ? USC on the road, Colorado at home ? and this number should get surpassed.

USC's 0-5 O/U run isn't going to last forever, and neither is the 0-2 O/U run for Colorado given that their opponents did all that they were supposed to for 'over' bettors in those two performances. The Buffaloes are 3-1 O/U at home this year as it is, and two of the three 'unders' USC has cashed away from home were a simple FG away from having a different result.

This is a game where those things should find a way to happen, as it was just two years ago that we had a near identical side and total for USC's last trip to Colorado. That game saw the Trojans close as -14 road favorites with a total of 61.5, and the 38-24 final score came about with the two teams combining for more than 1000 yards of total offense. That kind of yardage should be put up again in this year's meeting, as 62 or more points is going to be the final result here.

Best Bet: Over 62

YTD Record: 3-6 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Report - Week 9
October 25, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 3-4 1-3 4-3 3-4
Indiana 5-2 2-2 4-3 3-4
Iowa 5-2 2-2 2-5 1-5-1
Maryland 3-4 1-3 4-3 4-3
Michigan 5-2 3-2 3-4 5-2
Michigan State 4-3 2-2 2-5 3-4
Minnesota 7-0 4-0 4-2-1 4-3
Nebraska 4-3 2-2 1-6 2-5
Northwestern 1-5 0-4 2-4 2-4
Ohio State 7-0 4-0 6-1 3-3-1
Penn State 7-0 4-0 4-3 3-4
Purdue 2-5 1-3 4-3 4-3
Rutgers 1-6 0-5 1-6 3-4
Wisconsin 6-1 3-1 5-2 2-5

Week 9 Big Ten Conference Matchups

Saturday, Oct. 26
Wisconsin at Ohio State (-14.5, Total 49.5)
Indiana at Nebraska (-2.5, Total 53)
Illinois at Purdue (-9.5, Total 58)
Penn State (-5.5, Total 43.5) at Michigan State
Iowa (-9.5, Total 37) at Northwestern
Maryland at Minnesota (-16.5, Total 58)

Non-Conference Matchups
Notre Dame at Michigan (PK, Total 52)

Odds Subject to Change

Wisconsin at Ohio State (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
This game has been billed for weeks as a battle of Big 10 unbeatens but Wisconsin failed to hold up their end of the bargain last week. They went to Illinois as 30-point favorites and walked out with a 24-23 loss. The Badgers outgained Illinois by over 100 yards and had more than a 2 to 1 time of possession edge but a few key turnovers determined the outcome. Wisconsin turned the ball over on each of their final two possessions including Jonathan Taylor fumbling at the Illini 25-yard line with 7:00 remaining up 23-14. If they score there, that would have most likely salted the game away. Instead, after the fumble, Illinois went 75-yards in 4 plays and scored a TD that cut the lead to 23-21.

The Badgers still had a chance to run out the clock for the win however QB Coan threw an interception near midfield with just over 2:00 remaining. That set up Illinois for a short drive and the game winning FG as time expired. Wisconsin looked nothing like the team that stomped Michigan State 38-0 a week earlier, however a letdown or flat performance of some sort was to be expected. The Badgers hadn?t played a road game since late August, were off a huge home win, and had their game of the year coming up @ Ohio State the following week. Illinois held UW to just 156 yards rushing after allowing nearly 700 yards on the ground in the first 2 Big Ten games vs Minnesota and Michigan. After allowing 29 points all season, the Badger defense gave up 24 points to a struggling Illinois offense. They also allowed 315 total yards which was the most they?ve given up this season. Just an overall flat performance from Wisconsin. It will be interesting to see how they bounce back with @ OSU after their undefeated season came to an end last Saturday.

What else can we say each week about OSU? They look like the best team in the country to us. No weaknesses whatsoever. They, like Wisconsin, had a dangerous road game and a potential flat spot on a Friday night laying 28 points @ Northwestern. Unlike the Badgers, they did not roll their helmets onto the field thinking it was an automatic win. They blasted Northwestern 52-3 outgaining the Cats 480 to 199 and their current margin of victory is +40.5 which is tops in the FBS. That moves Ohio State to 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS the spread on the year covering their wins by 134 points (average cover on wins is by 22 points). They led 31-3 at half in this game meaning they have covered every first half line this year and have led by at least 17 points at the break in every game. In Big 10 play only the Buckeyes are outscoring their opponents 46-7 and outgaining their foes 527 to 243. They have scored 23 TD?s on conference play while allowing 3. Defensively OSU has allowed 70 yards or LESS passing in 3 of their last 4 games. Offensively they continue to run the ball at an incredibly efficient pace as RB Dobbins ranks 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing and his backup Teague ranks 5th in rushing and both average more than 7.0 YPC! Unstoppable force meeting immovable object on Saturday as the OSU running game facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks #1 in the nation at stopping the run.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The preliminary line on this last week before Wisconsin lost @ Illinois was OSU -11. After the Badgers loss and OSU?s dominating win @ Northwestern the line opened -14. These two have not met since the Big 10 Championship game in 2017 when the Buckeyes (-3) topped the Badgers 27-21 in Indianapolis. It?s not often the Badgers are underdog of 10 points or more. In fact, over the last 30 seasons (since 1990) they have been a double digit dog 27 times and they are 20-6-1 ATS in those games. OSU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series (7-3 ATS) but 5 of the last 6 have come by a TD or less.


Illinois at Purdue (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Illinois is entering this game off their biggest win in over a decade as they topped Wisconsin 24-23 as a 30-point underdog. They came to play on both sides on Saturday. Defensively they held the Badgers to just over 150 yards rushing after allowing nearly 700 yards their previous 2 games. They held All American RB Jonathan Taylor, who was averaging 6.4 YPC entering the game, to just 4.7 YPC. Offensively they tallied 315 total yards and while that may not seem like anything to write home about, it was the most yardage the Wisconsin defense has allowed this season. Starting QB Brandon Peters came back after missing more than half of the Minnesota game two weeks ago and all of the Michigan game last week. While he only completed 9 passes, he averaged 19 yards per completion and threw for 2 TD?s.

The Illini looked like a big play offense facing the nation?s top defense with TD?s of 48, 43, and 29 yards. They averaged more yards per rush (4.0) than Wisconsin (3.6) which looked simply impossible entering the game. Now with a 3-4 record there is chatter in Champaign about winning 3 of the next 5 to become bowl eligible. That didn?t seem possible before their win last week. They do have 3 winnable games remaining at home vs Rutgers and Northwestern and the game this Saturday @ Purdue. Winning @ Iowa or @ MSU might be a stretch but win this weekend and who knows?

Purdue gave Iowa all they could handle last weekend in a 26-20 loss in Iowa City. The Boilers had the 17-point spread covered the entire game as Iowa?s largest lead was 13. Purdue did score a TD with just 24 seconds remaining to make it a bit closer than it probably should have been but it was a one score game from the start until midway through the 3rd quarter. The yardage was basically dead even, however Purdue did take 83 offensive snaps to just 66 for the Hawkeyes. The Boilermakers continue to have no running game whatsoever (33 yards rushing on 1.8 YPC) but they may have found a gem in freshman QB Jack Plummer. The freshman signal caller stepped in for injured starter Elijah Sindelar a few weeks ago and has been very good. Plummer has thrown for 750 yards and 5 TD?s his last two games vs Maryland & Iowa. As a team, the Boilers have just 135 rush attempts on the year compared to 301 pass attempts. You can bet they will continue to lean heavily on their passing game from this point on. Speaking of their passing game, they were hoping to get star WR Rondale Moore back from injury last week but that did not happen. In fact, Moore, who hasn?t played since late September, is listed as doubtful for this weekend.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Last year Purdue was favored by 10.5 on the road in this series and blew out the Illini 46-7. The Boilers had over 600 yards in that game and held Illinois to 250. That was the 5th time in the last 6 meetings that Purdue covered the number in this series. To say Illinois has struggled on the road would be an understatement. Dating back to 2008, they are 9-42 SU their last 51 away from home (19-32 ATS).


Iowa at Northwestern (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hawkeyes (-17) had a battle on their hands last weekend topping Purdue 26-20 in a tight game. Iowa missed the cover dropping them to just 2-5 ATS on the year and the game stayed under the total (47.5) which is the norm for the Hawkeyes as only one of their games this season has gone over. The Iowa offense continued to look fairly pedestrian scoring only 2 TD?s vs a Purdue defense that had allowed 34 points or more in 3 of their previous 4 games. If you throw out their game vs Rutgers as everyone puts up big numbers on the Knights, the Hawkeyes have scored just 3 offensive TD?s in their other 3 Big 10 games vs Michigan, Penn State, and Purdue. The Hawks were hoping to get their running game back on track vs a Boiler defense that was allowing 167 YPG on the ground coming into the contest.

Iowa, who was averaging just 1.2 YPC their previous 2 games, struggled again with only 102 yards on 33 carries. QB Nate Stanley will most likely be shorthanded this weekend as his best WR Brandon Smith, who had over 100 yards receiving last week, will most likely have to sit after injuring his leg late in the game. The Iowa defense completely shut down Purdue running game but struggled vs the pass with the Boiler?s freshman QB shredding them for 327 yards. They should have to worry much about the passing game this week as Northwestern ranks 126th nationally averaging only 124 YPG through the air.

Northwestern gets an extra day to prepare for their showdown with Iowa after getting walloped by Ohio State last Friday night 52-3. The Cats ran the ball OK with 157 yards on the ground, their aerial attack continued to stay grounded with only 6 completed passes for 42 yards which was their lowest passing total since 2003. Current starting QB Aidan Smith is completing only 44% of his passes on the year for just 315 yards with 1 TD and 5 interceptions. We wouldn?t be surprised to see NW go back to Hunter Johnson at QB very soon if things don?t turn around. How bad is it? They have scored a grand total of 7 offensive TD?s this year in 6 games and are averaging 3.7 YPP which is dead last in the NCAA (130th). They are also last in the nation in yards per pass attempt at 4.1. If you take only their games vs Power 5 opponents this season, the Wildcats are averaging 8 PPG. All is not lost though as their defense, minus their game vs Ohio State, has been quite good. If you subtract their game vs the Buckeyes, the defense is allowing just 15.6 PPG and had allowed only 9 offensive TD?s in their first 5 games. They held a very good Wisconsin offense to just 1 offensive TD a few weeks ago in their 24-15 loss in Madison. With this total set at 37.5, the oddsmakers aren?t expecting either offense to break out of their doldrums here.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Northwestern was +10 @ Iowa in this match up last year and now they are getting the same number at home. The Cats upset the Hawkeyes in last year?s meeting 14-10. Since 1990, Iowa has been a favorite of 10 points or more @ Northwestern just 3 times. They are 0-3 ATS in those games. Since 2003, Iowa is just 3-11 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more vs any opponent. Dating back to last season, the underdog in Northwestern games is 16-5 ATS over the last 21 contests. The Wildcats are 24-11 ATS as an underdog dating back to December of 2014.


Indiana at Nebraska (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
After beating Maryland 34-28 on the road last week, the Hoosiers are just one win away from locking up a bowl spot (currently 5-2 record). Their only losses this year were to Ohio State and Michigan State. The OSU loss was a blowout (who doesn?t OSU blowout?) and their loss @ MSU was a tie game with less than 10 seconds remaining. IU dominated the stat sheet last week with 520 total yards while holding Maryland to 383 but had to hold on for dear life at the end of the game. The Terps turned the ball over in each of their last 2 possessions and Indiana held on to win by 6 points. Oft injured starting QB Michael Penix left the game in the 2nd quarter and did not return.

His backup Peyton Ramsey is one of the more experienced 2nd stringers in college football as he started for IU last year and has thrown for 843 yards this season in relief of Penix. He came in with Indiana up 14-7 and played very well with 193 yards passing completing 74% of his passes. If Penix cannot play, the Hoosiers are in good hands with Ramsey at the helm. Indiana now takes the road for the 2nd straight weekend heading to Lincoln for the first time since Nebraska joined the Big 10 back in 2014.

The Huskers were able to take a few weeks to lick their wounds after getting doused at Minnesota 34-7 two weeks ago. The Gophers gashed the Husker defense for 322 yards rushing making it the 2nd time in their last 3 games Nebraska allowed 300+ yards on the ground. They played that game without starting QB Martinez and it?s quite obvious there is a huge drop off offensively with him on the sidelines. His back up Noah Vedral has been under center for 14 offensive possessions since Martinez went out and they have scored just one TD under his guidance. So the big question heading into Saturday?s home game vs Indiana is will Martinez play? As of this writing he is questionable and will probably remain that way throughout the week. Last year Martinez had this offense humming in the 2nd half of the season scoring 28 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. This year they are down in most major offensive categories ranking 77th in total offense (25th last year), 80th in offensive YPP (20th last year), 90th in PPG scored (58th last year) and 74th in rushing offense (16th last season). Since putting up 42 points on Illinois in their conference opener, the Cornhuskers have scored just 27 points combined their last 3 games. They really need Martinez back in the line up on Saturday and it?s something we?ll keep a close eye on.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: These two have only met one time and that was back in 2016 when Nebraska (-3.5) topped IU on the road 27-22. This will be the first time Indiana has ever played @ Nebraska. The Huskers have covered only 1 game this season and that was vs Northern Illinois. Their 6 spread losses have come by 84.5 points or by 12 PPG vs the number. Nebraska has been a money burner at home with a spread record of 5-17-1 (22%) over their last 23 @ Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers are 2-0 ATS on the road in the Big 10 this year, however entering this season they were just 8-19 ATS in conference road games dating back to 2012.


Maryland at Minnesota (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Terps have faded quickly after an exciting 2-0 start to the season. Maryland is just 1-4 since their 2-0 start with their only win over that stretch coming against Rutgers who is getting destroyed by everyone. Last week they had a few chances late but fell at home to Indiana 34-28. They turned the ball over on each of their last 2 possessions including throwing an interception in IU territory with 1:20 remaining in the game. Back up QB Pigrome remained under center for Maryland with starter Josh Jackson still on the mend (Jackson looks like he will be able to return this weekend). Pigrome is not a great passer completing under 60% of his throws for 3 TD?s and 3 interceptions on the season. He can be a dangerous runner (100 + yards rushing vs Purdue this season) but only carried the ball 9 times for 6 yards vs the Hoosiers.

Maryland was outgained in the game by 140 yards and their defense allowed Indiana to gain 7.1 YPP and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. After numerous injuries in the defensive backfield this year, the Terps have been unable to slow down any decent passing game. Last week they allowed IU to hit 334 yards through the air a week after Purdue lit them up for 420 yards passing. They have now dropped to dead last in the Big 10 at defending the pass and 118th nationally. Maryland sits at 3-4 and still needs 3 wins to make them bowl eligible. That looks like it will be tough with road games @ Minnesota, @ Ohio State, and @ Michigan State (they will be double digit dogs in all of those) and home games vs Michigan & Nebraska.

Minnesota is knocked nationally for their ridiculously easy schedule, but they are doing what they need to do and that is keep winning no matter who the opponent is. They kept their perfect record in tact last week with a 42-7 win over Rutgers. The Gophers got off to a slow start in their win over the Scarlet Knights leading just 14-0 at half. However, what looked like a fairly close game at the break by Rutgers standards really wasn?t. Despite holding just a 14 point lead, Minnesota held a 259 to 39 yardage advantage in the first half. They had really been running the ball well over their last few games but struggled a bit here averaging only 4.4 YPC vs a bad Rutgers defense. QB Tanner Morgan picked up the slack completing just 15 passes but for 245 yards (16 yards per completion). Now at 7-0, the Minnesota schedule gets tougher soon with games on the horizon vs Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Speaking of their easy schedule, the Gophers have yet to face an opponent?s starting QB in Big 10 play. Their 4 Big 10 opponents (Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, and Rutgers) have all played against Minnesota with their back up QB under center. Going back to the last 2 games of last season, they have now won 9 straight games which is their longest streak since 1942.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Maryland was a 2.5 point favorite at home vs Minnesota last year and they thumped the Gophers 42-13. Since October 1st of 2004 the Gophers have been a home favorite of more than 14 points vs a conference opponent just 6 times (1-5 ATS). Since the 1986 season, Maryland is a terrible 29-45-4 ATS (39%) as an underdog of 14 points or more.


Penn State at Michigan State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Can Penn State head to Michigan State and play at the top of their game again after their huge home win last week vs Michigan? That was a huge game for the Nittany Lions and a revenge spot they had been pointing to since losing @ Michigan 42-7 last year. Last week was a tale of two halves in their game vs the Wolverines. PSU went off as 9-point favorites last week and jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead midway through the 2nd quarter. They led 21-7 at half and had over 200 yards (7.0 YPP) at that point. In the 2nd half the Lions were completely shut down with 7 points and just 72 yards of total offense (1.9 YPP in the 2nd half) with 53 coming on one play! They ran 4 or fewer plays on 8 of their 13 offensive possessions.

For the game, PSU had 12 fewer first downs, they were outgained by 134 yards and had a 15 minute time of possession disadvantage. They ran only 54 offensive plays while Michigan ran 82. The defense gave up a season high 417 yards to a Michigan offense that had been struggling when they faced a defense with a pulse. If you simply looked at the stat sheet there is no way you could envision PSU winning this game by a TD but they did. Michigan had their chance to tie the game late but a dropped pass in the endzone on 4th down with 2:00 minutes remaining ended their final possession. PSU head on the road for just the 3rd time this season and they are 2-0 SU & ATS in those games beating Maryland 59-0 and Iowa 17-12.

We would expect the Spartans to come out with a huge chip on their shoulders this week. After getting embarrassed by Wisconsin 38-0 two weeks ago, they had a bye week to correct some issues and get some rest. After winning 4 of their first 5 games with their only loss coming by 3 points vs Arizona State, the Spartans hit a brutal stretch of their schedule playing road games @ Ohio State and @ Wisconsin on back to back weeks. They were outscored 72-10 in those two games and outgained by a combined 497 yards in those 2 contests. Their stout run defense allowed OSU to roll up 323 yards on the ground and Wisconsin gained 222 rushing. That was after allowing just 279 rushing yards through their first 5 games (55 YPG). On offense they need to figure out how to put points on the board vs good defenses. In their 4 wins this year MSU is averaging 37.5 PPG as compared to only 5.6 PPG in their 3 losses. They haven?t been able to run the ball consistently (110th nationally in rush offense) putting a lot of pressure on QB Lewerke to shoulder the load. Another potential concern is MSU has had 6 players enter the transfer portal since the season started, 3 over the last 10 days or so. Many of those players were getting game reps. Could there be some internal issues going on in East Lansing?

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Last season MSU went into Happy Valley as a 13.5 point underdog and topped Penn State 21-17. The Spartans scored on a 25-yards Brian Lewerke TD pass with just 19 seconds remaining in the game to pull the upset. That win gave Michigan State a 5-1 SU & ATS record their last 6 vs the Nittany Lions. Since 1993, Sparty has been a home underdog vs Penn State 7 times and they?ve covered 5 of those games. Long term, MSU has been a nice money maker as a home dog covering 60% of their games in that role since 1980 (38-25 ATS).


Notre Dame at Michigan (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
We normally don?t preview Big 10 non-conference games once the teams get into league play. However, this is a big one so we?ll touch on it. The Irish come in rested off a bye week. Two weeks ago they played host to USC and held on for the 30-27 win. The Trojans scored a TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining to cut the lead to 3 and pick up the cover. Notre Dame had covered 4 straight before that spread loss. At 5-1 SU, their only outright loss this season was @ Georgia and that was tight with the Bulldogs winning 23-17. In that game ND had the ball inside the Georgia 40 yard line with under 1:00 minute left in the game so that loss was absolutely played to the wire. For the season the Irish have outgained every opponent with the exception of Georgia (-20 yards in that game) and have a YPP margin of +1.9 (6.9 YPP on offense & 5.0 YPP defensively).

This will be only the 2nd road game this season for Notre Dame.

Michigan, as we stated above in the PSU preview, outplayed the Nittany Lions drastically on the stat sheet in last week?s 28-21 loss in Happy Valley. After PSU jumped out to a 21-0 lead with 7:22 remaining in the first half, the Michigan defense completely shut them down from that point on. After that TD, Penn State had just 103 yards over the final 2.5 quarters and over 50 of that came on one play. Speaking of the Wolverine defense, since their debacle @ Wisconsin, they not allowed anyone to reach 300 total yards and they are holding those opponents to 3.9 YPP. On offense, Michigan looked as good as they have all season last week. They put up 417 yards on a top 10 defense and QB Patterson looked confident and played his best game of the year in our opinion. They looked like what we thought Michigan would look like this year after returning many of their key players from last year?s team that averaged 35 PPG and 420 YPG last season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Last year Michigan was favored at Notre Dame by 2.5 points and now one year later they are laying a lower number at home. ND won the game last season 24-17. The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last 4 in this series however before that the team getting points was a huge money maker with the dog covering 14 of the 16 meetings between 1992 and 2011. Michigan has covered 5 of the last 6 games in this series played in Ann Arbor.

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USC at COLO 09:00 PM

USC -11.5 ******

U 64.0 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

USC roars to a 35-31 comeback win over Colorado
October 25, 2019

BOULDER, Colo. (AP) Kedon Slovis threw a 37-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. with 2:15 left and Southern California escaped Folsom Field with a 35-31 win Friday night over the hard-luck Colorado Buffaloes, who nearly pulled off their first ever victory over the Trojans.

The Trojans (5-3, 4-1 Pac-12) improved to 14-0 all-time against Colorado with their first win in four road games this season and they handed the Buffaloes (3-5, 1-4) their fourth straight loss.

USC caught a couple of big breaks on the winning touchdown drive.

The first came when Slovis was strip-sacked by outside linebacker Jamar Montgomery for a 10-yard loss but running back Kenan Christon recovered for the Trojans.

Slovis then hit Drake London for 19 yards and on third-and-1 from the 50, Quincy Jountti looked like he was stuffed, but the officials spotted the ball for a first down, and four plays later Pittman took a short pass and weaved his way through the Colorado secondary for the go-ahead score.

He also caught a 44-yard TD pass earlier in the fourth quarter.

Steven Montez threw three TD passes, including a 71-yarder to Laviska Shenault Jr. on the second play of the second half but he wasn't the same after taking a hard hit from safety Hunter Echols late in the third quarter, and the Buffaloes blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead.

Montez's backup, Blake Stenstrom came in with 4 seconds left in the third quarter and gained 27 yards on a keeper but was replaced by Montez to start the fourth quarter. However, an 18-yard gain by running back Alex Fontenot was negated by tight end Jalen Harris' hold and the drive fizzled.

The Trojans pulled to 31-28 on Slovis' 44-yard touchdown toss to Pittman with 11:25 remaining. Pittman finished with 156 yards on seven catches and Slovis completed 30 of 44 passes for 406 yards.

QUICK STRIKE

The Trojans won the coin flip and went 75 yards in just three plays and 59 seconds with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown running it in from 37 yards out for a quick 7-0 lead.

Colorado responded with 17 consecutive points on a 22-yard field goal by James Stefanou and a pair of 7-yard touchdown passes from Montez to K.D. Nixon as Colorado took a 17-14 halftime lead.

Montez's first TD throw in three games followed an interception by freshman cornerback K.J. Trujillo, who also had a sack and a key pass breakup on third-and-1 in the first half.

The Trojans went with an empty backfield after falling behind 17-7 and drove 75 yards in nine plays with the payoff coming on a 3-yard touchdown pass from Slovis to Christon. One play earlier, Slovis fumbled at the 3 when he was blasted by safety Mikial Onu. London recovered the ball for USC.

THE TAKEAWAY:

USC: The Trojans caught a ton of breaks but improved to 4-1 in the Pac-12 South behind more stellar play from freshmen including Slovis and Christon, who rushed for 85 yards on 14 carries.

Colorado: The Buffs continue to slide despite playing their best game in a month. Shenault showed he's back after a core muscle injury slowed him for several weeks. He had 172 yards on nine catches.

UP NEXT

USC hosts Oregon on Nov. 2.

Colorado visits UCLA on Nov. 2.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/25/2019................0-2-0...........0.00% ...........-11.00
10/24/2019................2-0-0........100.00% ..........+10.00
10/19/2019.............20-31-0.........39.22%............-70.50
10/18/2019................7-1-0.........87.50%...........+29.50
10/17/2019................3-1-0.........75.00%............+9.50
10/16/2019................1-1-0.........50.00%..............-0.50
10/12/2019.............27-22-0.........55.10%..........+14.00
10/11/2019................2-4-0.........33.33%............-12.00
10/10/2019................0-4-0...........0.00%............-22.00
10/09/2019................1-1-0..........50.00%.............-0.50
10/05/2019.............34-31-0..........52.30%.............-0.50
10/04/2019................2-2-0...........50.00%............-1.00
10/03/2019................1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
..

Totals...................100-103-0.........49.26%............-66.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/25/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
10/24/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
10/19/2019............12 - 24.........-72.00.............8 - 2..............+1.50..............-70.50
10/18/2019.............3 - 0...........+15.00.............2 - 1.............+4.50..............+19.50
10/17/2019..............1 - 1...........-0.50...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+9.50
10/16/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-0.50
10/12/2019............19 - 14.........+18.00............7 - 7..............-3.50..............+14.50
10/11/2019.............1 - 2............-6.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............0 - 2..............-11.00............-22.00
10/09/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 -0..............+5.00..............-0.50
10/05/2019............23 - 21..........-0.50..............12 - 8.............+16.00...........+15.50
10/04/2019.............1 - 1............-0.50................1 - 1..............-0.50..............-1.00
10/03/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............1 - 2..............-6.00..............-17.00


Totals....................61 - 46.........-90.00.............36 - 25............+15.00............-75.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Essentials - Week 9
October 26, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Here?s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in select FBS vs. FBS matchups:
Early Starts

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-11/50.5), 12 p.m. ET, SEC: Neither team has performed to expectations, so the loser is looking at an uphill climb if they?re to be anywhere but home come bowl season. The Aggies close with road games at LSU and Georgia so they can?t afford an upset at home since the 12th Man has already witnessed losses to Auburn and Alabama. Mississippi State has won three straight games in this series, winning by a combined margin of 98-55. Both quarterbacks can tuck and run, but junior Kellen Mond has had a disappointing run in terms of consistency while true freshman Garrett Shrader has really opened eyes with his toughness and willingness to mix it up. Both teams are relying on a lot of youth, but Mississippi State?s kids are 0-2 in true road games, getting outscored 76-33, so Joe Moorhead will need to settle his group down as they try to get off to a strong start. The Bulldogs have been outscored 44-28 in the first quarter of games this season and has scored just one touchdown over the past three games, coming up with that after falling behind 21-0 at Auburn. The Ags won eight of their first nine in College Station under Jimbo Fisher before dropping their past two games.

Oklahoma (-23.5/59.5) at Kansas State, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Although Chris Klieman?s Wildcats dropped their first two Big 12 games, you?re going to have a hard time finding anyone displeased with the job he?s done attempting to build on what the legendary Bill Snyder has built. He finally picked up that first conference win last week in a 24-17 upset of TCU. The Sooners come through Manhattan for K-State?s marquee home game of Klieman?s first season and will need to avoid the penalties and self-inflicted miscues that have hindered their undefeated season thus far, costing them cover in three of their seven wins. Oklahoma got backdoored by Houston, Kansas and Texas but come in averaging just over 50 points per game behind Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts, who will get a bye week to heal up for a challenging November slate following this one. Hurts will have to deal with the best defense he?s seen since a 34-27 win over Texas that represents OU?s lowest-scoring output of the season. The K-State secondary has clamped down and helped surrender just 153 yards per game through the air. Hurts is by far the top QB that K-State has seen. Baylor?s Charlie Brewer would be next-best and helped burn the Wildcats for 31 points, the largest output they?ve surrendered.

Miami at Pittsburgh (-5/42.5), 12 p.m ET, ESPN: Manny Diaz?s first season at the helm of the U has been incredibly disappointing given the talent the ?Canes have on board, which is why his ?rebuilding? comment fell so flat that he was forced to backtrack from it. Miami has lost four games by seven or fewer points, but it was favored in three of the losses and now faces an uphill battle trying to finish the season at .500. An upset here would help, but the Panthers are working on something special, bringing a four-game win streak into Heinz Field. They?ll need someone to trip up Virginia since they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker against the ?Hoos, but winning the Coastal is definitely possible for Pat Narduzzi?s team, which has never won five straight since he took over prior to ?15. Expect rain to play a role since showers are in the forecast. Miami held Pitt to just 200 yards of offense in a 24-3 win last season, sacking QB Kenny Pickett six times. Look for Pitt to try and run the ball on early downs to try and keep things manageable, so expect that to go a long way in deciding this one. The Hurricanes will be starting N?Kosi Perry despite a separated shoulder in his non-throwing arm. Jarren Williams, a freshman who started the first five games, is likely to see action. Miami had a huge issue with missed tackles in an OT home loss to Georgia Tech last week and has depth issues on that side of the ball. RB DeeJay Dallas is dealing with an knee injury, leaving sophomores Cam?Ron Harris and Robert Burns as the likely backs.

Wisconsin at Ohio State (-14.5/49), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: The Badgers are a heavy underdog despite surrendering a national-low 7.6 points per game thanks to four shutouts. Coming off last week?s stunning 24-23 loss to Illinois in a game that it looked to have under control, Wisconsin will have an opportunity to bounce back immediately in what was always, at least on paper, expected to be its most challenging game of the season. There are still tough matchups ahead, but winning in Columbus gives them an opportunity to control their own destiny entering a season finale at Minnesota that would currently decide the West Division. This game will be played in the rain and therefore should be decided in the trenches and by the running game, putting Jonathan Taylor and JK Dobbins in the spotlight. Ohio State has left tackle Thayer Munford back and lists DE Jonathon Cooper as a game-time decision, so they?ll be ready as it attempts to beat the Badgers for the 10th time in 11 tries. The disparity between Jack Coan and Buckeyes? standout Justin Fields at the QB position is the biggest reason for the size of this spread, especially with Coan catching blame for the loss to the Illini. Fields has accounted for 30 touchdowns already and is by far the most talented signal caller that the Badgers have seen so far. Wisconsin is 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) as an underdog of eight or more points under Paul Chryst.

Afternoon Delights

Penn State (-5/43.5) at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: These teams will be in a race against the rain, so it will be interesting to see who winds up being the aggressor considering you?re not going to want to be trailing when the skies open. The second half is almost certain to feature Mother Nature in a starring role, but neither of these teams are going to shrink in the face of a squall or two. The Nittany Lions have lost their last two trips into East Lansing, including a 27-24 setback in ?17 that was interrupted by a weather delay of over three hours. James Franklin is just 1-4 against Mark Dantonio?s Spartans and has dropped two of the three games in which his team has been favored. Sparty QB Brian Lewerke has had his ups and downs but has produced against Penn State, throwing for 659 yards and four scores in two wins. Michigan State?s defense will look to keep a PSU offense that produced a season-low 283 yards in last Saturday?s 28-21 win over Michigan from finding a rhythm on the road. The Nittany Lions haven?t produced 300 yards of offense in edging Iowa the previous week, but the defense has been impressive. Receivers Darrell Stewart, KJ Hamler and Jahan Dotson will each have opportunities to make plays downfield until the rain hits and could have an advantage if things get sloppy. Last season?s game was the first between Franklin and Dantonio that failed to produce over 40 points.

Maryland at Minnesota (-18.5/62), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Gophers still have to face Penn State and Wisconsin, but both have to come into Minneapolis, which makes it crucial to continue setting the tone at home. The team is 13-5 under PJ Fleck at TCF Bank Stadium and have covered both Big Ten games there this month, outscoring the Illini and ?Huskers by a combined margin of 74-24. After struggling to beat South Dakota and Georgia Southern to open the season, Minnesota can?t afford to overlook anyone. Maryland has dropped four of five games but won last season?s meeting 42-13 and gets sophomore RB Anthony McFarland back from a high ankle sprain just in time to face a team he torched for 112 yards and two scores on just six carries. QB Josh Jackson is also available to return from an ankle injury, so he?s likely to get time ahead of Tyrrell Pigrome, who is a more limited passer. The Gophers are off next week, so expect Fleck to utilize his entire roster liberally. RB Rodney Smith has continued to be a touchdown machine while QB Tanner Morgan has really protected the football, throwing just three picks to go with his 16 TD passes.

Texas (-18.5/62) at TCU, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX: The Longhorns are 5-2 but come off an embarrassing win over Kansas, surviving 50-48. With a bye week on deck, the results of this road rivalry game is going to drastically alter how the program looks entering a manageable November slate. Texas lost its two games against current unbeatens LSU and Oklahoma by seven points apiece and will likely be favored in its final four regular-season contests provided it manages to get out of this trip to Fort Worth unscathed. TCU has dropped consecutive games, so this certainly would appear to be a trap line. Texas? defense has taken a beating, figuratively and literally, but the offense remains formidable thanks to Sam Ehlinger, whose 21 passing TDs lead the Big 12. The Longhorns? have been victimized by injuries in the secondary and will need to buckle up to try and contain speedy Jalen Reagor, TCU?s most explosive threat. If Frogs? RBs Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua can get the ground game going, big plays will be inevitable if freshman Max Duggan delivers the ball accurately. Tom Herman got the ?Horns on the board after four straight losses to TCU, which has made unbelievable strides in stepping out of the little brother role to the big school in Austin under Gary Patterson.

Virginia (-3.5/51.5) at Louisville, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN: The Cardinals look to bounce back from a 45-10 loss to Clemson as they try to avoid losing consecutive games for the first time under Scott Satterfield. The Cavaliers snapped a two-game losing streak with a 48-14 win over Duke but are hoping for their first home win since their Aug. 31 conquest at Pitt that currently gives them the inside track in the Coastal. The rest of the schedule looks awfully favorable if they can survive this road trip and next week?s jaunt to Chapel Hill. Bryce Perkins is a poor man?s Lamar Jackson, but that?s not exactly a slight. He?s been extremely effective and has been the driving force for the ?Hoos when he?s been able to get rolling as a dual threat. Both Notre Dame and Miami were able to rattle him in throwing off his rhythm, but he?ll be facing a ?Ville defense that has surrendered 44.5 points over the last four games. Virginia snapped its losing streak against Louisville with a 27-3 blowout last season but is likely to have a much tougher time here as it looks to improve on a 5-25 record in ACC road games since 2012.

Auburn at LSU (-10.5/58), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: This battle of Tigers features the visitors from the Plains looking to rattle the seemingly unflappable Joe Burrow in order to ruin LSU?s unbeaten season. Auburn still doesn?t have RB Boobie Whitlow, so they?ll have to manufacture offense without their top playmaker to keep pace with an LSU offense that has dominated by piling up nearly 540 yards per game and 50.1 points every time out. The Tigers will hope to shut down the run with their respected defensive front and challenge Burrow to remain accurate despite 15-20 mile-per-hour wind gusts that are expected in Baton Rouge. DE Marlon Davidson will be tasked with trying to disrupt Burrow, who has thrown for a national-best 29 touchdowns. Auburn will need freshman Bo Nix to flourish in what will be his final true road start of the season since his team closes the season with four November home games and will need hookups with Seth Williams to help make up for Winslow?s absence. LSU has won three of four in this series thanks to back-to-back comeback wins, which included rallying from down 20-0 in 2017.

Late-night Snacks

Washington State at Oregon (-14/67.5), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Ducks would be part of the national picture if they hadn?t surrendered a last-second touchdown to Auburn on Aug. 31, but their defense has been dominant since and did enough to help pull off a win at Washington last week. If Oregon holds serve here, it should be favored at banged-up USC next week and is likely to climb into the national top 10 despite how weak the Pac-12 has been. Washington State had lost three straight before a 41-10 blowout of Colorado last week and is surrendering 44.7 points per game in its three defeats. The Ducks are led by QB Justin Herbert, who held up nicely against a solid U-Dub defense, throwing for 280 and four touchdowns in a hostile atmosphere. He?ll have RBs CJ Verdell and Travis Dye available, which should help balance the offense. Washington State has owned this series of late, winning each of the last four meetings by an average margin of 40.8-25.

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LIB at RUTG 12:00 PM
LIB -7.5

MIA at PITT 12:00 PM
MIA +4.0 *****

SJSU at ARMY 12:00 PM
O 54.5 *****

IOWA at NW 12:00 PM
U 36.5 *****

WIS at OSU 12:00 PM
WIS +14.5

ILL at PUR 12:00 PM
O 54.5 *****

MSST at TAM 12:00 PM
TAM -10.5

OKLA at KSU 12:00 PM
KSU +23.5 *****
O 59.0

BGSU at WMU 12:00 PM
WMU -27.0

APP at USA 12:00 PM
APP -27.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON BEST BETS *****

SOMIS at RICE 01:00 PM
U 51.5

NEV at WYO 02:00 PM
WYO -14.0 *****
O 43.5 *****

OHIO at BALL 02:00 PM
OHIO +2.5 *****

WKU at MRSH 02:30 PM
WKU +4.5 *****

NMSU at GASO 03:00 PM
O 53.5


*************************


UVA at LOU 03:30 PM
UVA -3.5

CONN at MASS 03:30 PM
O 62.0

SYR at FSU 03:30 PM
FSU -11.0

TULN at NAVY 03:30 PM
NAVY -3.5 *****
O 58.0 *****

TEX at TCU 03:30 PM
TCU +1.0

IND at NEB 03:30 PM
IND +1.5 *****
O 54.0 *****

PSU at MSU 03:30 PM
U 43.0

MD at MINN 03:30 PM
MINN -16.0 *****

ARIZ at STAN 03:30 PM
ARIZ +1.5
O 52.0

AUB at LSU 03:30 PM
LSU -10.5 *****

FAU at ODU 03:30 PM
ODU +14.0

UNT at CHAR 03:30 PM
CHAR +4.0
O 64.0 *****

FIU at MTU 03:30 PM
FIU -1.5 *****
O 57.0

OKST at ISU 03:30 PM
ISU -10.5 *****

EMU at TOL 03:30 PM
EMU +3.0 *****
O 54.5 *****

AKR at NIU 03:30 PM
NIU -22.5

CMU at BUFF 03:30 PM
CMU +2.5 *****

M-OH at KENT 03:30 PM
KENT -2.5

USF at ECU 03:45 PM
ECU +1.0 *****

HAW at UNM 04:00 PM
O 71.5 *****

SOCAR at TENN 04:00 PM
TENN +4.5
O 47.0 *****

DUKE at UNC 04:00 PM
UNC -3.0 *****
U 53.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

EVENING BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:


MEM at TLSA 07:00 PM
MEM -10.0 *****
U 59.0

UCF at TEM 07:00 PM
UCF -11.5

ARK at ALA 07:00 PM
ALA -32.0

TXST at ARST 07:00 PM
O 60.5 *****

TROY at GSU 07:00 PM
GSU -2.0
O 67.0 *****

TTU at KU 07:00 PM
TTU -6.0 *****

CSU at FRES 07:30 PM
FRES -14.0 *****
U 56.5

ND at MICH 07:30 PM
ND -1.0 *****
U 47.5 *****

ASU at UCLA 07:30 PM
UCLA +3.0 *****
O 56.5

MIZZ at UK 07:30 PM
UK +9.5 *****

BC at CLEM 07:30 PM
U 59.0 *****


****************************


LT at UTEP 08:00 PM
LT -18.5 *****
O 49.5 *****

CAL at UTAH 10:00 PM
UTAH -21.0 *****
U 36.5 *****

USU at AFA 10:15 PM
USU +4.0

SDSU at UNLV 10:30 PM
UNLV +11.5 *****
O 45.0

WSU at ORE 10:30 PM
WSU +14.0 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's best
October 26, 2019
By The Associated Press

STARS

-J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State, rushed for 163 yards and two TDs and the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes routed No. 13 Wisconsin 38-7.

-Joe Burrow, LSU, passed for 321 yards and a touchdown, ran for another score, and the second-ranked Tigers edged No. 9 Auburn 23-20.

-Skylar Thompson, Kansas State, threw for 213 yards while running for four TDs and the Wildcats held on through a harrowing fourth quarter for a 48-41 victory over No. 5 Oklahoma.

-Bryant Koback, Toledo. rushed for a career-high 259 yards in a 37-34 win over Eastern Michigan.

- Drew Lauer, Drake, ran for a career-high 242 yards in a 36-17 win over Morehead State.

Kevin Mensah, Connecticut, ran for 164 yards and a career-high five TDs in a 56-35 victory over Massachusetts.

-Cam Akers, Florida State, ran for 144 yards and tied a school record with four TD runs as the Seminoles routed Syracuse 35-17.

- Xazavian Valladay, Wyoming, rushed for a career-high 206 yards as the Cowboys defeated Nevada 31-3.

-Sean Clifford, Penn State, threw three of his four TD passes to Pat Freiermuth in the No. 6 Nittany Lions' 28-7 win over Michigan State.

-Peyton Ramsey, Indiana, passed for a career-high 351 yards and two TDs and the Hoosiers became bowl eligible with a 38-31 win over Nebraska.

-Pete Guerriero, Monmouth, ran for 221 yards and a score in a 35-13 win over Charleston Southern.

-Levante Bellamy, Western Michigan, rushed for 178 yards and a career-high four TDs in a 49-10 defeat of Bowling Green.

- Marcus Knight, Montana, ran for 131 yards and three TDs in a 34-17 win over Eastern Washington.

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K-STATE KNOCKS OFF OKLAHOMA

There was never a moment of uncertainty on Kansas State's sideline when fifth-ranked Oklahoma raced to an early lead, or when the wounded Sooners began to mount a frantic fourth-quarter comeback.

There might have been just a bit when they recovered an onside kick.

Anxiousness that soon gave way to elation.

Officials reviewed the recovery with 1:45 left in the game and determined the ball hit an Oklahoma player a yard early, giving it to the Wildcats. They ran out the rest of the clock to finish off a 48-41 victory that dealt the Sooners' national title hopes a major blow.

Oklahoma tried to make the case that its player was blocked into the ball on the onside kick. But by the time the Sooners headed for the bus, the scoreboards inside Bill Snyder Family Stadium still read the same.

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LSU TOP AUBURN

Joe Burrow bounced up immediately from a high-speed hit that looked like it could have given the LSU quarterback whiplash as he was sent crashing into the Auburn bench area.

Trotting resolutely back to the line of scrimmage, Burrow resumed his school-record eighth career 300-yard passing performance in a tense, top-10 clash that put a premium on grit and perseverance.

Burrow passed for 321 yards and a touchdown, ran for 47 yards and another score, and second-ranked LSU edged No. 9 Auburn 23-20 on Saturday.

The victory ensured LSU would be unbeaten heading into its highly anticipated Nov. 9 tilt at Alabama, which entered this weekend ranked No. 1.

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NUMBERS

4-Straight wins by TCU in its series with Texas for the first time since the 1930s.

28-Straight victories by FCS No. 1 North Dakota State after a 23-16 win over South Dakota State.

78-Years since No. 17 Minnesota last started 8-0.