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Cnotes53

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Thursday, September 11

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NCST at WAKE07:30 PMNCST -7.0
U 52.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SEPTEMBER !

09/11/2025.........1 - 1 - 0................50.00%...........- 0.50
09/06/2025.......7 - 11 - 0...............38.88%............- 24.00
09/05/2025.........3 - 4 - 0...............42.85%............- 7.00

TOTALS.............11 -16 - 0..............40.74%............- 31.50


**********************************

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR AUGUST !

08/23/2025..........................5 - 1 - 1.........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50

TOTALS................................5 - 1 - 1 ........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50
 

Cnotes53

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Friday’s 6-pack:
College football lines that have moved a lot this week:
— Temple was +28 vs Oklahoma; now they’re +22
— Missouri was -21 vs Louisiana, now they’re -27
— Troy was +9 vs Memphis, now they’re +3.5
— Arizona State was -13 vs Texas State, now they’re -17.5
— Boston College was -9 vs Stanford, now they’re -13.5
— Arkansas was +10 vs Ole Miss, now they’re +6.5

Quote of the Day

“No matter what anyone says, just show up and do the work……true grit leads to true success.”
Jon Gordon

Friday’s quiz

Washington Redskins coach Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; who were they?

Thursday’s quiz
2005 was the last season without a no-hitter in the major leagues; there hasn’t been one so far this season.

Wednesday’s quiz
Chicago Bears have never had a QB pass for 4,000 yards in a season; Erik Kramer holds the Bears’ single-season record for passing yards, with 3,898 in 1995.

*************************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

— Packers 27, Commanders 18
Green Bay had early TD drives of 96-92 yards, grabbed a 14-0 lead.
Jordan Love threw for 292 yards, two TD’s.
Last 4+ years, Packers are 24-16-1 ATS coming off a win.
Since 2019, Packers are 27-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Washington’s first three drives: 12 plays, 13 yards, three punts.
Green Bay outgained the Commanders, 404-230.
Washington ran the ball 19 times for only 51 yards.
Last 4+ years, Commanders are 11-14 ATS as a road underdog.

— NC State 34, Wake Forest 24
Wake Forest led 24-14 with 4:00 left in 2nd quarter.
Deacons ran the opening kickoff back 98 yards for a TD.
3-0 Wolfpack ran the ball 44 times for 205 yards.

— Phillies 6, Mets 4
Mets scored four runs on five hits in top of first inning.
Mets didn’t get another baserunner the rest of the game.
Mets have lost six in a row; their lead for last Wild Card slot is 1.5 games.

— Mariners 7, Angels 6 (12)
Seattle won in 13 innings Wednesday, 12 innings in this game.
#9 hitter JP Crawford knocked in three runs for Seattle.
Mike Trout hit his 399th career home run in the 5th inning.
Mariners/Astros are now tied for first in the AL West.

— Guardians 3, Royals 2
Rookie CJ Kayfus hit a 2-run homer in bottom of the 8th inning.
Guardians have won six of their last seven games.
Royals’ 1B Vinnie Pasquantino has 33 RBI in his last 30 games.

— New York 9, Tigers 3
Aaron Judge hit two home runs, has 46 this season.
New York led 9-1 in the fourth inning.
New York leads the Red Sox by half a game for the AL’s first Wild Card slot.

— Padres 2, Rockies 0
Randy Vasquez struck out a career-high nine in six shutout IP.
Jackson Merrill homered in the fourth inning.
Padres pulled within 2.5 game of the Dodgers in the NL West.

Famous birthdays, September 12th:
Mickey Lolich, 85
Linda Gray, 85
Joe Pantoliano, 74
Rachel Ward, 68
Deron Cherry, 66
Vernon Maxwell, 60
Ki-Jana Carter, 52
Luis Castillo, 50 (Marlins’ 2B)
Yao Ming, 45
Freddie Freeman, 36
Andrew Luck, 36
Kyle Bradish, 29

— Blue Jays 6, Astros 0
Kavin Gausman threw a complete game, 2-hit shutout.
This was the 27th complete game of the season (28 last year)
Astros are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Cubs, Padres, Mets
AL: Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros. Wild Cards: Red Sox, New York, Mariners

Elsewhere in the world…….

— NFL needs to re-do its onside kick rule; one of the spring football leagues had/has a rule which is good, and the NFL should adopt it.
If a team wants to onside kick, they simply get the ball on their own 30 (or 35) yard line, it is 4th and 15 and they play on from there. Gives them a chance to come back

— Mac Jones is expected to strata QB for the 49ers in New Orleans Sunday, with starter Brock Purdy nursing toe/shoulder injuries. Jones is 20-30 as an NFL starter, for Patriots/Jaguars.

— Packers star Micah Parsons is making $47M/year, but now that he lives in Green Bay, he is subject to Wisconsin’s 7.65% state income tax, which reduces his salary to $43.4M/year.
Texas doesn’t have state income taxes, but the Cowboys were offering him $40.5M, so he is still making $2.9M more per year now than if he had signed with Dallas.

— Patriots defensive coordinator Terrell Williams is under the weather, has been away from the team for a few days; it is unclear who will call defensive signals for New England Sunday.

— Carlie Irsay-Gordon, daughter of the late Jim Irsay, is the Indianapolis Colts’ new owner/CEO; she was on the sidelines during last week’s win over Miami, listening to the coaches on her headset. You don’t see that every day.

— In Week 1 of the NFL season, 75.6% of kickoffs were returned, up from the 33.1% in Week 1 of the 2024 season. There were 3,074 kick return yards, the most in any week since Week 15, 2010.
 

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NCAAF
Weather Report

Friday, September 12


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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Friday’s games
Colorado
@ Houston (-4.5)
Colorado (1-1)
Colorado lost 27-20 to Georgia Tech, beat Delaware 31-7.
Tech ran ball for 320 yards in the opener.
Colorado has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Colorado has 112 returning starts on offensive line, mostly transfers.
3rd-string QB Staub is getting his first college start here.
Staub was 7-10/158 in relief vs Delaware last week.
Sanders is 9-4 ATS as an underdog with Colorado.


Under Sanders, Colorado is 5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In 2+ years under Sanders, Colorado is +27 in turnovers.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 4-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Both Colorado games this year stayed under the total.


Houston (2-0)
Houston beat a I-AA team 27-0, won 35-9 at Rice.
Cougars outgained Rice 392-228 last week.
Houston has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Cougars have 92 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Weigman started five games at Texas A&M last year.


Houston is 2-8 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Fritz is 30-20 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Houston is 9-16-1ATS in conference games.
Cougars are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.


These teams haven’t met in the last 20 years.


Kansas State (-1.5) @ Arizona
Kansas State (1-2, 0-1)
K-State lost its two I-A games, both by 24-21 scores.
Wildcats got upset as a 17-point favorite by Army last week
K-State’s only win: 38-35 over I-AA North Dakota.
Wildcats have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
K-State has 43 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Johnson started 13 games last year.


Last two years, K-State was 1-7 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Klieman is 5-8 ATS as a road favorite.
Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Big X games.
Last five years, K-State is 15-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Both their I-AA games stayed under the total.


Arizona (2-0)
Arizona drubbed Hawai’i 40-6, beat a I-AA team 48-3.
Wildcats were +5 in turnovers in the Hawai’i game.
Arizona has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Wildcats have 84 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Fifita has 21 career starts


Arizona is 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 9-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2019, Arizona is 21-29 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 34-29-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.


K-State (-7) spanked Arizona 31-7 last year.
K-State ran ball for 235 yards, outgained Arizona 391-324.


New Mexico @ UCLA (-14.5)
New Mexico (1-1)
Lobos (+34) lost 34-17 at Michigan, beat I-AA team 32-22.
Lobos were outgained 452-267 in Ann Arbor.
New Mexico has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Lobos have 100 starts returning on OL (added 6 transfers).
Junior QB Layne started six games at Idaho.


New Mexico is 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
New coach Eck was 26-13 as HC at I-AA Idaho.
Last 3+ years, Lobos are 10-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Last two years, Lobos are 5-4-1 ATS in games coming off a win.


UCLA (0-2)
UCLA lost its first two games, giving up 43-30 points.
Bruins gave up 492-351 yards, were minus-3 in turnovers.
UCLA has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Bruins have 91 returning starts on OL, all from transfers.
Soph QB Iamaleava had 14 starts at Tennessee.


Since 2015, UCLA is 14-27 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 3+ years, UCLA is 5-8 ATS in non conference games.
Bruins covered six of last eight games overall.
UCLA is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games coming off a loss.


These teams haven’t met since 2002.
 

Cnotes53

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Friday, September 12

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
INST at IU06:30 PMINST +46.5
U 59.0
+500 +500
COLG at SYR07:00 PMCOLG +36.5
U 64.0
+500 +500
COLO at HOU07:30 PMHOU -5.0
U 45.0
+500 +500
KSU at ARIZ09:00 PMKSU -2.0
U 54.5
+500 +500
UNM at UCLA10:00 PMUCLA -15.5
U 53.5
+500 +500
 

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

FCS

DUNKEL INDEX PREDICTION FOR INDIANA STATE AT INDIANA

Date: Friday, September 12
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 48.248; Indiana 97.755
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 49 1/2; 55
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 46 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-46 1/2); Under

DUNKEL INDEX PREDICTION FOR COLGATE AT SYRACUSE
Date: Friday, September 12
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 44.580; Syracuse 90.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Syracuse by 45 1/2; 61
Vegas Line & Total: Syracuse by 36 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-36 1/2); Under
 

Cnotes53

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SEPTEMBER !

09/12/2025.........3 - 5 - 0................37.50%...........- 12.50
09/11/2025.........1 - 1 - 0................50.00%...........- 0.50
09/06/2025.......7 - 11 - 0...............38.88%............- 24.00
09/05/2025.........3 - 4 - 0...............42.85%............- 7.00

TOTALS.............14 -21 - 0..............40.00%............- 44.00


**********************************

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR AUGUST !

08/23/2025..........................5 - 1 - 1.........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50

TOTALS................................5 - 1 - 1 ........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50
 

Cnotes53

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Blue Ribbon Basketball’s top six college teams for this season:
6) St John’s
5) UConn
4) Duke
3) Houston
2) Purdue
1) Florida

Quote of the Day
“I’m obviously going to be optimistic. I understand that I took myself out of a game and that’s the first time I’ve ever done that in my career, so I understand that there’s some sort of concern.”
Tarik Skubal, who left Friday’s start with pain in his left side

Saturday’s quiz

When the Texas Rangers won the World Series two years ago, who did they beat?

Friday’s quiz
Washington Redskins coach Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien.

Thursday’s quiz
2005 was the last season without a no-hitter in the major leagues; there hasn’t been one so far this season.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Friday…….

— Rangers 8, Mets 3
Texas scored six runs in top of the first vs rookie P Tong.
Jacob deGrom won in his first start against Mets at Citi Field
Mets have now lost seven games in a row.

— A’s 3, Reds 0
Cincinnati was 0-12 with runners in scoring position.
Reds remain 1.5 games behind the Mets for the last Wild Card slot.
Carlos Cortes homered twice in this game for the A’s; he played his 21st game in the outfield Friday, but he’s also played a game at third base. When he plays the outfield, Cortes throws left-handed, but when he plays the infield, he throws right-handed.
Never heard of anyone doing that before.

— Giants 5, Dodgers 1
Patrick Bailey hit a walk-off grand slam for the Giants.
Justin Verlander allowed four hits in 7 IP.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed only one hit in 7 IP.

— NL Wild Card race:
3) Mets 76-72
Giants 75-72
Reds 74-73
Arizona 73-75

— Houston 36, Colorado 20
QB Weigman threw for 222 yards, ran for 83 more.
Cougars outgained Colorado, 431-300.
Houston ran ball for 209 yards; they were +2 in turnovers.

— Arizona 23, Kansas State 17
Arizona led 17-3 at halftime.
Ismail Mahdi ran ball 22 times for 189 yards.
K-State is 0-3 vs I-A teams, with losses by 3-3-6 points.

— New Mexico 35, UCLA 10
Lobos were a 17.5-point underdog in this game.
UCLA is 0-3 this season, outscored 108-43, with two losses to Mountain West teams.

Famous birthdays, September 13th:
Jacqueline Bisset, 81
Rick Wise, 80
Kathleen Lloyd, 77
Clyde Kusatsu, 77
Rick Dempsey, 76
Jim Cleamons, 76
Jean Smart, 74
Mike Pagel, 65
Denny Neagle, 57
Bernie Williams, 57
AJ McCarron, 35
Troy Reeder, 31

— New York 4, Red Sox 1
Luis Gil threw six innings, didn’t give up a hit.
Aaron Judge hit his 47th home run of the year.
Red Sox fall to 4.5 games behind Toronto in the AL East.

— Mariners 2, Angels 1
Mitch Garver hit a solo home run in the 7th inning.
Luis Castillo allowed three hits in six IP.
Mariners remain tied for first with Astros in AL West

— Guardians 4, White Sox 0
Tanner Bibee threw a complete game, 2-hit shutout.
It was Cleveland’s first complete game shutout in six years.
Guardians have won seven of their last eight games.

— AL Wild Card race:
3) Hst/Sea 80-68
Rangers 78-70
Guardians 76-71
Royals 74-74

— Nationals 6, Pirates 5
Pittsburgh led 3-0 in sixth inning.
Dylan Crews hit a 2-run homer for Washington.
LF James Wood threw out the tying run at the plate in the 9th inning.

— Astros 11, Braves 3
Zach Cole went 3-for-4, homered in his first MLB at-bat.
Astros had scored a total of 8 runs in their previous four games.
Houston-Seattle are tied for first in the AL West.AL West

— Twins 9, Diamondbacks 8
Arizona scored four runs in top of the 9th
Minnesota scored three runs in bottom of 9th.
Kody Clemens hit three home runs for the Twins; he has 19 this year.
 

Cnotes53

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Saturday, September 13

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
OKLA at TEM12:00 PMU 51.0+500
CWM at UVA12:00 PMUVA -31.0+500
MEM at TROY12:00 PMMEM -4.0+500
ORE at NW12:00 PMORE -26.5+500
CLEM at GT12:00 PMGT +2.5
O 52.0
+500 +500
CMU at MICH12:00 PMCMU +28.0+500
WIS at ALA12:00 PMALA -19.0
U 46.0
+500 +500
USA at AUB12:45 PMO 54.5+500
NWST at CIN03:30 PMCIN -48.0+500
YSU at MSU03:30 PMMSU -23.0+500
USC at PUR03:30 PMUSC -20.5+500
ORST at TTU03:30 PMTTU -23.5+500
SMU at MOSU03:30 PMO 61.0+500
WSU at UNT03:30 PMWSU +5.5
O 56.5
+500 +500
ISU at ARST04:00 PMO 56.0+500
USF at MIA04:30 PMMIA -17.5+500
MTU at NEV05:00 PMU 49.0+500
FAU at FIU06:00 PMO 57.0+500
MERR at KENN06:00 PMKENN -15.5+500
PV at RICE07:00 PMRICE -28.0+500
ODU at VT07:00 PMU 51.0+500
WMU at ILL07:00 PMILL -28.0+500
FLA at LSU07:30 PMLSU -6.5
U 47.5
+500 +500
NMSU at LT07:30 PMU 43.0+500
TAM at ND07:30 PMND -6.5+500
MASS at IOWA07:30 PMO 44.0+500
VAN at SOCAR07:45 PMSOCAR -3.0
U 49.0
+500 +500
NAVY at TLSA08:00 PMU 52.0+500
UTAH at WYO08:00 PMO 47.5+500
AFA at USU09:45 PMUSU +5.0+500
 

Cnotes53

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SEPTEMBER !

09/13/202.......12 - 11 - 0................52.17%...........- 0.30
09/12/2025.........3 - 5 - 0................37.50%...........- 12.50
09/11/2025.........1 - 1 - 0................50.00%...........- 0.50
09/06/2025.......7 - 11 - 0...............38.88%............- 24.00
09/05/2025.........3 - 4 - 0...............42.85%............- 7.00

TOTALS............26 -32 - 0..............44.82%............- 44.30


**********************************

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR AUGUST !


08/23/2025..........................5 - 1 - 1.........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50

TOTALS................................5 - 1 - 1 ........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Major league leaders in strikeouts:
228— Garrett Crochet, Bos
224— Tarik Skubal, Det
203— Paul Skenes, Pitt
201— Dylan Cease SD/Logan Webb SF
200— Jesus Luzardo, Phil
195— Zack Wheeler, Phil

Quote of the Day
“Unfortunately, he didn’t make the one before, but he had his head high. That’s the life of being a kicker, you know what I mean? I love the way he responded. He’ll continue to grow, and we have great trust in him. Unfortunately, he didn’t finish that one.”
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel, after a tough OT loss to Georgia

Sunday’s quiz

When the Rams beat Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV, who was the Titans’ QB?

Saturday’s quiz
When the Texas Rangers won the World Series two years ago, they beat Arizona.

Friday’s quiz
Washington Redskins coach Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien.

*********************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

— Georgia 44, Tennessee 41, OT
Dawgs score TD in OT; they’ve beaten Vols nine times in a row.
Tennessee led 21-7 after the first quarter.
Vols missed a 43-yard FG with 0:03 left in regulation.

— Georgia Tech 24, Clemson 21
Yellow Jackets kicked a 55-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Tech QB King passed for 216 yards, ran for 103 more.
Clemson is is off to a disappointing 1-2 start.

— Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 35
Backup QB Chambliss (transfer from Ferris State) threw for 353 yards.
Ferris State won the Division II national title last year.
Arkansas was in Ole Miss red zone in last 2:00, but lost a fumble.

— Texas A&M 41, Notre Dame 40
Aggies threw an 11-yard TD pass on 4th-and-goal with 0:13 left.
Notre Dame missed PAT after TD that put them ahead 40-34.
Aggies’ QB Reed threw for 360 yards, two TD’s.

— West Virginia 31, Pittsburgh 24 OT
Pitt led 24-14 with 6:00 left in regulation.
WVU tied game on a TD with 0:11 left.
Mountaineers outgained Pitt, 434-349.

Upsets of the Week:
New Mexico (+17.5) 35, UCLA 10
Delaware (+10.5) 44, UConn 41
Georgia Tech (+9.5) 24, Clemson 21
Middle Tennessee (+9.5) 14, Nevada 13
Old Dominion (+7.5) 45, Virginia Tech 26
West Virginia (+6.5) 31, Pittsburgh 24 OT
Texas A&M (+6.5) 41, Notre Dame 40
Bowling Green (+6.5) 23, Liberty 13
Vanderbilt (+5.5) 31, South Carolina 7

— Rangers 3, Mets 2

Mets led 2-0 after seven innings.
Texas has won six games in a row.
Mets have lost eight games in a row.
Juan Soto hit his 40th homer for the Mets.

— Milwaukee Brewers are first team to clinch a playoff spot this year; Brewers are in the playoffs for the 7th time in the last eight years.

Famous birthdays, September 14th:
Larry Brown, 85
Alvin Scott, 70
Tim Wallach, 68
Stephen Bishop, 55
Tyler Perry, 55
David Bell, 53
Chad Bradford, 51
Brandon Hicks, 40
Deshaun Watson, 30
Bubba Chandler, 23

— LSU 20, Florida 10
LSU led 13-10 at half; they intercepted five passes.
LSU QB Nussmeier threw for 220 yards and a TD.
Florida outgained LSU 366-316, but the five INT’s were a killer.

— Vanderbilt 31, South Carolina 7
Commodores snapped a 16-game losing streak to South Carolina.
Vandy is 3-0 for the first time since 2017.
Gamecocks’ QB Sellers was KO’d in the 2nd quarter, didn’t return.

— Tulane 34, Duke 27
Duke QB Mensah passed for 313 yards, 3 TD’s against team he played for last year.
Tulane QB Retzlaff (transfer from BYU) passed for 245 yards, 10.7 yards/attempt.
Duke paid Mensah $4M to play for them this season.

— Iowa State 24, Arkansas State 16
Cyclones start season 4-0 for 2nd year in row; its the first time they’ve done that.
Iowa State ran ball 34 times for 187 yards.
Ark State had 10 penalties for 90 yards, Cyclones 3 for 31.

— Delaware 44, UConn 41, OT
Delaware gets its first I-A win as a I-A team.
Blue Hens kicked a 43-yard FG at the gun in regulation to force OT.
Delaware ran ball 45 times for 247 yards.

— Buffalo 31, Kent State 28
Buffalo threw a 22-yard TD pass with 1:03 left for the win.
Bulls’ QB Roberson threw for 318 yards, three TD’s.
Buffalo has won its last five MAC games.
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
— Mets 5, Rangers 2 (10)- Alonso’s walk-off HR ended Mets’ 8-game skid.
— Mariners 11, Angels 2- Seattle has a one-game lead in AL West.
— Blue Jays 11, Orioles 2- Toronto leads the AL East by four games.
— A’s 7, Reds 4- The A’s sweep the Reds, are out of last place!!!
— Dodgers 10, Giants 2- Teoscar Hernandez went 4-6, scored twice.
— Padres 9, Rockies 6- Jackson Merrill hit a 3-run homer.

Quote of the Day

“When we execute with the players that we have and the scheme that we have, we got a high probability to be successful.”
Matthew Stafford

Monday’s quiz

Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy was catcher for three different teams; what team did he play for the most?
Hint: He played in a World Series

Sunday’s quiz
When the Rams beat Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV, Steve McNair was the Titans’ QB.

Saturday’s quiz
When the Texas Rangers won the World Series two years ago, they beat Arizona.

************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..

Cowboys 40, Giants 37 OT
Cowboys drove 42 yards, kicked 46-yard FG with 0:04 left in OT.
Dallas kicked a 64-yard FG at end of regulation to force OT
Giants had taken lead on a 48-yard TD pass with 0:25 left.
Giants are 0-9 SU/3-6 ATS in last nine visits to Dallas.
Wilson was 30-41/450 passing, with three TD’s.
Prescott was 38-52/361 passing with two TD’s.
Giants in 4th quarter: 14 plays, 186 yards, 21 points.
Giants in overtime: 6 plays, 3 yards, no points.

Bengals 31, Jaguars 27
QB Burrow injured the big toe on his left foot (check status)
Backup QB Browning scored the game-winning TD with 0:18 left.
Cincinnati ran ball 17 times for only 48 yards.
Bengals are 2-0 for the first time since 2018.
Cincinnati’s winning drive was 15 plays, 92 yards.
Ja’marr Chase caught 14 passes for 165 yards.
Jacksonville led 17-10 at halftime.
Jags’ QB Lawrence was 24-42/271 passing (3 TD’s, 2 INT’s)

Patriots 33 Dolphins 27
Patriots snap a five-game losing skid to the Dolphins in Miami.
Dolphins took 27-23 lead with 74-yard punt return for TD.
Patriots took lead back with 90-yard kickoff return for a TD.
It was first time since 1992 that a punt return TD was immediately followed by a kickoff return for a TD.
Dolphins are 0-2, giving up 33 points in both games.
New England’s first three drives: 36 plays, 209 yards, 15 points.
Since 2021, Miami is 11-17-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Patriots were 7-12 on third down, Dolphins 4-10.

Colts 29, Broncos 28
Colts kicked 45-yard FG at gun to go to 2-0 for first time since 2009.
Colts missed 60-yard FG on previous play, but a 15-yard penalty on Denver gave Indy a second chance.
Indianapolis scored 4 TD’s, kicked 6 FG’s on its first 10 drives this season.
Indy hasn’t punted in its first two games.
Denver’s first four drives: 26 plays, 172 yards, three TD’s.
Denver rest of game: 29 plays, 147 yards, one TD.
Since 2017, Broncos are 7-11 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 14-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Eagles 20, Chiefs 17
Game was tied 10-10 at halftime.
Barkley ran ball 22 times for 88 yards and a TD.
Philly is 11-5 ATS in last sixteen games vs AFC teams.
Eagles are 12-2-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chiefs threw INT in red zone early in 4th quarter; Kelce dropped an easy throw.
KC’s first four drives of 2nd half: 24 plays, 90 yards, no points, 2 turnovers.
Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time since 2014.
Chiefs are o-2 in one-score games; before this year, they had won 11 consecutive one-score game.

]Lions 52, Bears 21
Goff passed for 334 yards, five TD’s, three of them to St. Brown
Detroit scored a TD on six of its last seven possessions.
Last 3+ years, Lions are 15-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 5+ years, Detroit is 11-5 ATS in home games vs NFC North rivals.
Since leading 17-6 in Week 1, Bears have been outscored, 73-28.
Chicago in 2nd half of this game: 32 plays, 131 yards, 7 points.
QB Williams is 5-14 as an NFL starter.
Since 2020, Chicago is 10-14 ATS as a road underdog.

Rams 33, Titans 19
Tennessee led 13-10 at halftime.
Rams in 2nd half: 35 plays, 262 yards, 23 points.
Titans in 2nd half: 31 plays, 75 yards, 6 points.
Last 3+ years, Rams are 7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Rams outgained Tennessee, 439-252.
In two games, Rams have allowed one TD on 20 drives.
In two games, Titans have kicked 8 FG’s, scored only one TD.
Titans are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog.

Famous birthdays, September 15th:
Tommy Lee Jones, 79
Oliver Stone, 79
LeRoy Irvin, 68
Dan Marino, 64
Earnest Byner, 63
Sherman Douglas, 59
Jason Terry, 48
Mike Dunleavy Jr., 45
Terry McLaurin, 30
Easton Stick, 30

Seahawks 31, Steelers 17
Leading 17-14, Seahawks scored a TD when the Steelers didn’t cover a kickoff that went in the end zone and Seattle fell on it for a TD that made score 24-14.
Seattle in 2nd half: 33 plays, 207 yards, 17 points.
Seahawks outscored Pittsburgh, 395-267.
Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
Pittsburgh led 14-7 at halftime.
Steelers in 2nd half: 33 plays, 183 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers.
Steelers ran ball 21 times for only 72 times.
Last 3+ years, Pittsburgh is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Cardinals 27, Panthers 22
Cardinals scored a defensive TD 1:33 into the game.
Arizona’s first four drives: 28 plays, 148 yards, 13 points.
Arizona led 20-3 at halftime, then hung on for dear life.
Down 27-22 with 1:58 left, Carolina recovered an onside kick, but was stopped on downs by the Cardinal defense.
Panthers in first half: 29 plays, 111 yards, 3 points.
Carolina ran the ball 19 times for only 49 yards.
QB Young is 6-24 as an NFL starter; Canales is 5-14 as a head coach.
Carolina is 9-16-2 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.

Ravens 41, Browns 17
Lamar Jackson was 19-29/225 passing, with four TD’s.
Ravens scored 40-41 points in first two games, but split the pair.
Ravens lead was only 10-3 at halftime.
Up 27-10, Ravens scored defensive TD on 63-yard fumble return.
Ravens in second half: 24 plays, 158 yards, 24 points.
Browns in second half: 38 plays, 250 yards, 14 points.
Since 2021, Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 6+ years, Cleveland is 4-14 ATS in AFC North road games.

Bills 30, Jets 10
Buffalo outgained the Jets, 403-154.
Bills ran the ball 43 times for 224 yards.
James Cook ran 21 times for 132 yards, two TD’s.
Last 4+ years, Bills are 8-5 ATS in AFC East road games.
Bills were 5-14 on third down, Jets 0-11.
Buffalo led 20-3 at halftime.
Jets in first half: 24 plays, 78 yards, 3 points.
Bills won ten of last 12 series games.

49ers 26, Saints 21
Backup QB Jones threw for 279 yards and three TD’s.
49ers led this game 16-7 at halftime.
SF ran the ball 26 times for only 77 yards.
49ers were 8-15 on third down, New Orleans 4-11
Saints’ first four drives: 17 plays, 57 yards, no points.
Last 4+ years, Saints are 7-13 ATS as a home underdog.
Rattler is 0-8 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 7-13 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.

Falcons 22, Vikings 6
Falcons ran 63 plays for 326 yards, Vikings 46 plays for 198.
Minnesota turned ball over four times on 10 drives.
Falcons led 9-6 at halftime.
Only TD of game came on an 88-yard drive by Atlanta late in game.
McCarthy was 11-21/158 passing with two INT’s.
Vikings in first half of their 2 games: 51 plays, 219 yards, 4 FG’s.
Last nine years, Minnesota is 1-7-1 SU in home openers.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 8-10 ATS as a home favorite.
 

Cnotes53

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for Week 3:
— Dolphins @ Buffalo (-12.5)
— Bengals @ Minnesota (-2.5)
— Steelers (-1.5) @ New England
— Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee
— Texans (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
— Falcons (-5.5) @ Carolina

Quote of the Day
“Whether you think you can, or think you can’t, you’re right.”
Henry Ford

Tuesday’s quiz

LA/San Diego Chargers have played in one Super Bowl; who was their QB in that game?

Monday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy was catcher for three different teams; he played the most for San Diego, playing for the Padres in the 1984 World Series.

Sunday’s quiz
When the Rams beat Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV, Steve McNair was the Titans’ QB.

**********************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

I’m not sure if/when you’ll be reading this; had some major Internet issues at Armadillo World HQ late Monday night. Hopefully you’re reading this and all is well with the world…….

Buccaneers 20, Texans 19
Bucs drove 80 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:06 left.
Tampa Bay opens up 2-0 for the fifth year in a row.
Bucs’ first two drives: 23 plays, 147 yards, two TD’s
Last two years, Tampa Bay is 12-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Houston took a 19-14 lead on a 25-yard run by Chubb with 2:10 left.
Tampa Bay outgained the Texnas, 360-266.
In two games, Houston has converted 4-18 third down plays.
Since 2019, Texans are 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Chargers 20, Raiders 9
Chargers picked off three passes, outgained Raiders 317-218.
Chargers led 17-6 at halftime.
Chargers are 6-2 SU/8-0 ATS last 7 games vs AFC West rivals.
Chargers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Raiders had drive of 19 plays, 62 yards; it took 11:07, but they kicked a FG.
Three drives after that, Raiders ran 14 plays for 27 yards, no points.
In two games (1-1), Raiders have run ball 43 times for 124 yards.
Since 2018, Raiders are 14-15-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Tom Brady is part-owner of the Raiders; he was wearing a headset during the game Monday night, it is said that he consults with Raiders’ OC Chip Kelly on the game plan during the week.
How the BLEEP is he allowed to also broadcast games on network TV, where he meets with coaches of other teams during the week?!?!?!??
Raiders play Chicago in Week 4; if you’re Ben Johnson, do you want him in a production meeting where you will discuss your strategy??? I don’t think so.
NFL needs to put a stop to this.

— Through two weeks of the NFL…….
Home underdogs in divisional games are 1-5 ATS
Home underdogs in non-divisional games are 3-4 ATS
Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6 ATS
Home favorites in divisional games are 4-3 ATS
Overall, favorites are 17-15 ATS.

— Rough day for NFL quarterbacks………
Minnesota Vikings are expecting to start Carson Wentz this week, with JJ McCarthy nursing an ankle surgery.
Vikings are playing Cincinnati this week, which will be starting backup Jake Browning the next three months, after Joe Burrow had surgery on his foot/toe.
Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels (knee) is a ??? for Washington’s game with the Raiders this week.
Also, Cowboys’ center Cooper Beebe is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with a sprained ankle.

— Famous birthdays, September 16th
Ed Begley, Jr, 76
Mickey Rourke, 73
Wilbert Montgomery, 71
Robin Yount, 70
Eric Hipple, 68
Jennifer Tilly, 67
Orel Hershiser, 67
Tim Raines, 66
Chad Harville, 49
Dan Dickau, 47
Brandon Moss, 42
Robbie Grossman, 36
Aaron Gordon, 30
Quinn Priester, 25
Sam Howell, 25

— In college football…….
AAC home teams are 3-6 ATS out of conference.
AAC road teams are 9-6 ATS out of conference.
AAC favorites are 7-5, home dogs are 0-4.
ACC non-conference home favorites are 4-8 ATS
Overall, ACC teams are 10-16 ATS out of conference.
Big 10 teams are 15-18 ATS out of conference.
Big X teams non-conference favorites are 9-8, underdogs are 3-4.
Conference USA teams are 11-6 ATS out of conference, 8-4 as road underdogs.
MAC teams are 15-10 ATS in non-conference games.
Mountain West teams are 13-7 ATS, road underdogs are 7-3 ATS
SEC home favorites are 7-11 ATS out of conference; overall, SEC teams are 15-13 ATS in non-conference games.
Sun Belt teams 12-14 ATS in non-conference games.

— Over the weekend, UCLA/Virginia Tech fired their football coaches; September is half-over today, and two college/minor league teams have already fired their coaches. Yikes.

— Phillies 6, Dodgers 5 (10)
Phillies clinch the NL East with this win.
Dodgers lead NL West by two games over San Diego.
Kyle Schwarber hit his 53rd home run; he has hit 22 homers off of lefties this year, tied with Stan Musial (1949), Matt Olson (2021) for most homers hit by a lefty off of lefties in one year.

— Diamondbacks 8, Giants 1
Arizona broke open a close game, scoring six runs in sixth inning.
Geraldo Perdomo was 3-fot-3 with 2 walks, scored a run.
Zac Gallen allowed two hits in six IP.
— Arizona is 1.5 games behind the Mets for the NL’s last playoff spot; Giants are now two games behind the Mets.

— Reds 11, Cardinals 6
Sal Stewart was 3-for-5, with 3 runs scored, 2 RBI
Cincinnati is also within two games of the NL’s last playoff spot.

— Astros 6, Rangers 3
Jeremy Pena was 2-for-4, with three RBI
Oft-injured Yordan Alvarez left this game with a sprained ankle.
Houston’s bullpen got 13 outs, didn’t allow run.

— Blue Jays 2, Rays 1 (11)
Trey Yesavage allowed a run in five IP in his MLB debut.
Toronto has a five-game lead in the NL East; their magic number is 8.
 

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Week 4


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Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia denied intentions to play in 2026 as NCAA lawsuit continues: 'This is my last year'

Pavia's lawyer's argument in court sparked speculation he may try to play another year at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is in the midst of a lawsuit with the NCAA over the organization's eligibility rules, arguing that junior college playing time should not count towards NCAA eligibility.

This season marks Pavia's fourth year at the NCAA level (and sixth year overall, including junior college ball) after winning a temporary injunction against the NCAA to play in the 2025 season. While he's been allowed to play this season, his lawsuit with the NCAA continues and, on Tuesday, his lawyers argued that he should actually be eligible for the 2026 season as well, as per the NCAA's redshirt rules if his time in junior college doesn't count towards eligibility.

That argument became headline news that Pavia may be seeking a seventh season playing college football in 2026, but the quarterback took to Twitter to shut down the idea he could play another year, stating firmly "this is my last year."

The reason his lawyers are arguing for 2026 eligibility is not a matter of Pavia's desire to do so, but instead trying to set the precedent for future athletes.

Their argument, via a transcript from Sam Ehrlich, is that if the NCAA's rules stipulate that the five-year eligibility requires players to pursue a four-year degree during that time. When a player is in junior college, they are pursuing a two-year degree, and as such that should not count towards the eligibility once they go to a four-year school. If that is the case, then Pavia's five-year clock on eligibility would not have started until 2022 when he arrived at New Mexico State, meaning it would be technically possible for him to retain eligibility through 2026, pending redshirt rules.

That all seems moot in the specific case for Pavia, as he insists he has no plans on playing beyond this season in Nashville, but the matter is worth arguing at a judicial level for the purpose of setting a precedent for determining eligibility for former JUCO athletes.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ce-gate-conversation-surrounding-viral-clips/
 

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Arch Manning struggles, Dia Bell injury may force Texas to seek QB reinforcements if succession plan blows up

The foundational idea that Texas may go smoothly from Manning to Bell is showing cracks, we write in the latest Talent Tracker

If Arch Manning really is the biggest bust of all time, as some on social media would love to tell you, then Texas fans better start working on their wish list of transfer portal arms because incoming five-star quarterback recruit Dia Bell's development has taken a major hit.

Bell announced earlier this week he is shutting things down for the rest of his senior season in order to get a minor procedure. Injuries happen, but Bell also missed the tail end of his junior year with a lower-leg extremity. That means the MVP of this summer's Elite 11 Finals will head to Austin with just 25 varsity starts under his belt -- and that's not an ideal number.

There is no magic formula when it comes to predicting a quarterback's success, but live game reps are hard to replace. Just look at Quinn Ewers, who started only 25 games in high school after electing to reclassify and forgo his senior season. Ewers spent his first year at Ohio State running the scout team before eventually transferring to Texas where he brought Texas to consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals but never personally matched his lofty No. 1 overall ranking.

The Talent Tracker isn't ready to proclaim that Bell is the latest quasi-reclassification cautionary tale, but it would be a bit silly to think that Bell is going to factor into the Longhorns' quarterback plans next year -- 2026 -- if Manning really can't turn things around and that's because Bell's growth as a player is being stalled at a key moment.

When Michigan and Nebraska square off this upcoming weekend, it will be a meeting of two former five-star quarterbacks that were Day 1 starters in freshman Bryce Underwood and sophomore Dylan Raiola. The two are very different, but a tying thread between them is the fact that they both played a lot of football in high school with Underwood starting 54 games to Raiola's 37.

Neither Underwood or Raiola won state championships as seniors in high school, but they both made deep runs in the playoffs. That was also the case with two of the sport's other breakout young signal-callers in Cal's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (35 career starts) and Maryland's Malik Washington (36 career starts).

Now, it's certainly not a requirement for quarterbacks to play meaningful games in the months leading up to their college enrollment, but it's hard to replicate high-pressure situations where one has to be the catalyst in a training camp or spring practice.

In Bell's case, for the second year in a row he's missing out on post-season competition.

Texas faithful entered this season with two schools of thought on the quarterback succession play. Manning would either play so well and win so many awards and take Texas so far in the CFP that he would have no choice but to go pro, or he would stick around for the 2026 season, which was, and is, still the most likely path. In either event, Bell would have jockeyed for the starting job in 2026 or 2027 against contenders Trey Owens and KJ Lacey.

The new formula suggests there's a chance Manning may flat-out flop at Texas and send UT looking for an alternative in 2026. Bell, without those key senior reps, would likely not be ready for the job.

Long-term, there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the No. 3-ranked quarterback in the Top247.

Last month, Bell engineered a comeback for the ages as he rallied his Plantation American Heritage squad from a 28-point halftime deficit to beat Philadelphia St. Joseph's on a last-second field goal. A week later, he threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns against a Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna Prep program that has won four-straight state titles in Florida.

The son of longtime NBA player Raja Bell, Dia has received terrific coaching since his youth and has some of the best mechanics in the class (that should please some of the season ticket holders inside DKR Texas-Memorial Stadium). He's proven to be accurate to all three levels. He can play in structure and he can also use his slick athleticism to extend passing windows when the protection isn't clean.

When Bell committed to the Longhorns two summers ago, it came after he threw alongside multiple other high-profile quarterback recruits at a camp in Austin. He was essentially handpicked by Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the offensive staff to be the eventual successor to Manning.

There's no reason to think that Bell can't eventually be the guy for Texas, but it's probably wise to temper the timeline with the most recent injury.

Other QB recruits dealing with injuries

Faizon Brandon (Tennessee commit): The No. 1-ranked recruit in the Top247 has not played for North Carolina's Greensboro Grimsley since injuring his thumb on a game-winning touchdown run in the first outing of his senior season. Details on his return have been scarce.
Brandon owns one of the best statistical profiles in the class with a 30-1 record as a starter, having thrown 72 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Vols look to have struck gold on a one-year rental in transfer Joey Aguilar, but Brandon is viewed internally as Tenneessee's quarterback of the future and is expected to battle former four-star recruits Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre for the starting gig when he arrives on campus.

Travis Burgess (North Carolina commit): Burgess, the No. 7 quarterback in the Top247, tore his ACL during the second game of his senior season. A major rankings riser this summer, the athletic Burgess turned heads at the Elite 11 Finals and was hoping to lead Grayson to its second consecutive Georgia AAAAAA championship.

After a dismal debut, Gio Lopez has found his footing and helped power UNC to back-to-back victories. Lopez has two more years of eligibility remaining after transferring in from South Alabama. He should only get more comfortable running Bill Belichick's offense, but it could be hard to fend off a healthy Burgess, who is similar in a lot of ways to Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green given the frame and dynamic cuts as a runner.

Peyton Falzone (Auburn commit): The quarterback situation on The Plains looks much more promising than it did this time last year. Jackson Arnold has the Tigers off to a 3-0 start and the buzz coming out of preseason camp was that ballyhooed recruit Deuce Knight is ahead of schedule.

Falzone, who ranks as the No. 13 quarterback in the 2026 cycle, broke the clavicle in his non-throwing shoulder four games into his senior season and is done for the year. The four-sport athlete and former Penn State commit was always going to be a longer burn, but the injury ended a 12th-grade campaign where he was showing notable growth as a passer.
 
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