Cnotes NFL Picks

[Cnotes53]

Sunday Blitz - Week 17
December 29, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bears at Vikings (-5, 40 ?) ? 4:25 PM EST

Chicago (11-4 SU, 11-4 ATS) has put together the best turnaround in the NFL by capturing the NFC North title one season after finishing 5-11 and in last place. The Bears still have a shot at clinching a first-round bye with a victory and a Rams? loss, but Chicago is guaranteed at least one home playoff game after rallying past San Francisco last Sunday, 14-9. Chicago barely cashed as four-point favorites thanks to the Bears? defense keeping the Niners out of the end zone and taking the lead for good on Jordan Howard?s two-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.

The Vikings (8-6-1 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) control their own destiny for a playoff spot as a win gets them in the postseason. Minnesota is coming off its second consecutive victory after routing Detroit last Sunday at Ford Field, 27-9 to cash as 6 ?-point favorites. The Vikings scored the final 27 points after limiting the Lions to three early field goals, while Kirk Cousins threw a trio of touchdown passes, including two to Kyle Rudolph. However, seven of Minnesota?s eight wins have come against teams owning losing records heading into Week 17.

In their first matchup at Soldier Field in a Week 11 Sunday night showdown, the Vikings fell in a 22-6 hole before scoring two late touchdowns in a 25-20 defeat to the Bears. Chicago held on for the cover as 2 ?-point favorites to avenge a pair of losses to Minnesota from 2017, as the Bears limited the Vikings to 22 rushing yards on 14 attempts. The Bears are listed as a road underdog for the first time since the season-opening one-point loss to the Packers, while posting a 2-1 ATS mark when receiving points.

Best Bet: Vikings 26, Bears 20

Browns at Ravens (-6, 41) ? 4:25 PM EST

One month ago, it seemed like the Steelers would run away with the AFC North title. Following Pittsburgh?s recent meltdown, Baltimore (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) is in position to steal the division championship following a 5-1 surge under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens have been the ultimate roller-coaster ride in the NFL this season by starting 4-2, dropping three straight, then going on this hot stretch to reclaim the top spot in the North. The most recent win was the most impressive with Jackson under center by beating the red-hot Chargers in Week 16 as four-point underdogs, 22-10, while limiting an opponent to 21 points or less for the fifth time in six weeks.

Cleveland (7-7-1 SU, 9-6 ATS) has definitely turned heads this season following two years of dreadful play and only one win to show for it. The Browns have an opportunity to finish above .500 for the first time since 2007, while trying to close the season with four consecutive wins. Cleveland held off Cincinnati last Sunday, 26-18 as the Bengals scored two late touchdowns to cash as 10-point underdogs. However, the Browns enter Week 17 at 1-3 ATS in their past four chances as an underdog of five points or more.

Best Bet: Ravens 23, Browns 14

Eagles (-6 ?, 42) at Redskins ? 4:25 PM EST

The defending champions are on the verge of being a one-hit wonder as Philadelphia (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) need a victory and a Minnesota loss to reach the playoffs. The Eagles dug themselves a 4-6 hole before winning four of the last five games to keep their hopes alive at a repeat. Philadelphia held off Houston in a shootout last Sunday, 32-30 at Lincoln Financial Field as Nick Foles continued his magic in place of Carson Wentz by throwing for 471 yards and four touchdowns.

The Eagles seek their fourth division win and a sweep of the Redskins (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS) as Washington has lost five of six games down the stretch. Washington is down to its fourth quarterback of the season in journeyman Josh Johnson, as he has led the Redskins to a pair of ATS wins against the Jaguars and Titans. After Washington upended Jacksonville in Week 15, the Redskins hung with Tennessee by leading in the fourth quarter prior to allowing two late touchdowns in a 25-16 defeat as 12-point ?dogs.

In their first matchup at the Linc earlier this month, the Eagles pulled away from the Redskins, 28-13 to cash as 5 ?-point home favorites. Washington captured five straight meetings over Philadelphia from December 2014 through December 2016, but the Eagles are riding a three-game winning streak over the Redskins since the start of last season.

Best Bet: Eagles 21, Redskins 17

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 40-38-2 this season)
Redskins +6 ?
Ravens -6
Buccaneers -1
Vikings -4 ?
Rams -10

Chris David (2-3 last week, 50-29-1 this season)
Giants -6 ?
Chiefs -13 ?
Browns +6
Chargers -6 ?
Seahawks -13 ?

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 45 ? - Lions at Packers (1-0 last week, 10-6 this season)

Detroit?s offense has been miserable down the stretch as the Lions have been limited to 20 points or less in eight of the past nine games. The Lions are riding a six-game UNDER streak as they travel to Green Bay to face the Packers. Green Bay is seeking consecutive wins for the first time this season following last Sunday?s dramatic overtime triumph over the Jets. The last six matchups between these NFC North rivals have finished OVER the total, but the Packers are 6-3 to the UNDER the last nine games since a 5-1 start to the OVER.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

Although both the Falcons and Buccaneers aren?t headed to the playoffs, Atlanta looks to avoid a 10-loss season with a victory at Raymond James Stadium. From 2013-15, the Falcons didn?t reach the playoffs. Why is that important for this contest? In all three of those season finales, the Falcons lost, including twice in the favorite role. Tampa Bay has covered four of its last five contests, while the Bucs have emerged victorious in Week 17 at home the last two seasons.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Although the Bills have not won a home game by more than three points this season, Buffalo went from a 3 ?-point favorite earlier in the week against Miami to a 5 ?-point favorite. The Bills lost to the Dolphins earlier this season, 21-17, while Buffalo owns an 0-2 ATS mark in the chalk role in 2018. Meanwhile, Miami has picked up only one road victory this season, which came back in Week 2 against the Jets, while the Dolphins have covered just one in six away defeats.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

One team has failed to win a road game this season and it?s the San Francisco 49ers. It won?t be easy to break through the win column on Sunday as the Niners face the Rams, who need to win to secure a first round bye in the NFC playoffs. If San Francisco loses, it will mark the third straight season a team has posted an 0-8 record away from home (Cleveland in 2016-17), as the Niners seek their third road cover of the season.

 

[Udog]

Top 6 picks for Week 17 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest:

1) Colts, -3 (972)

2) Browns, +6 (904)

3) Bills, -3.5 (847)

4) Eagles, -6.5 (800)

5) Vikings, -4.5 (758)

6) Texans, -6.5 (670)

Season record: 51-44-3



Essentials - Week 17
Tony Mejia

Sunday
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-6.5/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Talented guard Zack Martin?s knee is improving enough that he?ll be counted on to play in the Wild Card round but he?ll be absent here. Tackle Tyron Smith is working his way back from a knee injury but isn?t expected to play more than a series or two, which means you should take the pledge Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett made to utilize all healthy starters with a grain of salt. It?s hard to imagine the Cowboys exposing Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott behind backup offensive linemen even with the Giants having struggled so much this season. Linebacker Sean Lee should see a heavier workload as he tries to get back to 100 percent following his latest hamstring injury. Defensive linemen David Irving and Tyrone Crawford have been ruled out, which should make life easier for New York?s rookie running back to finish his season off in style.

Barkley opens this contest 236 yards behind Dallas? Elliott for the rushing title and will likely get his typical workload barring something unexpected. With Odell Beckham, Jr. out, Eli Manning struck up a nice connection with Sterling Shepard last week, hooking up with him six times for 113 yards. Between Barkley, Shepard and tight end Evan Engram, the Giants have enough ammo to justify them being favored here with the Cowboys expected to ride backups for the majority of this one.

Carolina at New Orleans (-7.5/43), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The rumor is that Ron Rivera should survive Black Monday, so the head coach may finally dial back the workload on Christian McCaffrey, who has set an NFL record for running backs with 103 catches and got over the 1,000-yard mark, joining LaDainian Tomlinson and Matt Forte as the only players ever to post those numbers in a season. If he gets a well-deserved week off, the most likely candidate to replace him is fourth-year back Cameron Artis-Payne, who had a seven-yard carry and a 13-yard catch last week. The Auburn product has four career TDs and is looking for his first this season. Backup Taylor Heinicke had a turnover-filled debut last week and ended up injuring his elbow, so the Panthers will have their third QB in as many weeks in Kyle Allen, once an elite recruit who played at Texas A&M and Houston before and completed all four of his passes last week in spot duty against the Falcons.

The Saints have nothing to play for, already having clinched homefield advantage in the NFC as the No. 1 seed. Teddy Bridgewater will start instead of Drew Brees. He?s thrown one pass all season. While both teams will try and replicate their usual offensive packages and have players elated to finally get their shot, both will be operating behind backup offensive lines. The Saints have been perfect in the Superdome since a season-opening upset against Tampa Bay. Carolina is looking to avoid closing the season with an eight-game losing streak and has only won once outside Charlotte. Red-zone issues have plagued this group all year and Allen will be looking to pick up an offense that will likely be without their top weapon and has scored a season-low 19 points over a two-game span entering Sunday.

N.Y. Jets at New England (-13.5/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Rookie Sam Darnold was sidelined with a foot injury when the teams met in Week 12, so this will be his first look at Bill Belichick?s defense. Josh McCown was at the controls for the Jets and had a full bye week of preparation for his second start of the season but didn?t manage much in a 27-13 loss. After becoming the youngest player ever to throw for 300 yards and three TDs in an OT loss to the Packers last week, Darnold will look to close his first season on a high note. Todd Bowles is probably done as head coach and comes in 1-6 against the Patriots, continuing a 2-14 run for the Jets against the Pats since December 2010. The Jets haven?t defeated New England at Gillette Stadium since 2008, dropping nine straight.

With a much coveted first-round bye at stake for the Patriots, they?re going to go all out to secure a victory that would make their road back to a third straight Super Bowl far more manageable. Last week?s win over Buffalo saw them fail to cover the spread for a third straight contest but did secure double-digit wins in a season for a 16th consecutive campaign. New England will be looking to finish off a perfect 8-0 regular-season run in Foxboro and may not have tackle LaAdrian Waddle in the mix, so ensuring they keep the Jets from Tom Brady while picking up the win will be the primary motivation here. Brady threw for 283 yards and two scores against New York on Nov. 25 and will be looking to close out the season with a sharp effort where he again avoids being sacked as he managed in Week 12. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30?s, but winds shouldn?t be a factor.

Detroit at Green Bay (-8/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Packers demonstrated last week that they?re up for playing for pride, rallying to survive the Jets in overtime as Aaron Rodgers put his body on the line in showing off the wheels to fuel the comeback with a couple of late touchdown runs. He?s moving much better than he did earlier in the season and will likely have tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga in place. Top WR Davante Adams is also questionable, but if the Packers declare everyone available, there?s certainly motivation to finish strong since they?re looking for a 6-1-1 finish at Lambeau Field. Temperatures will be frigid and winds will be a factor, but the Packers are looking to avoid their fourth consecutive loss to the Lions after dropping the first meeting this season 31-23 to drop a third straight, something that hadn?t occurred in this one-sided series since 1991. Detroit is looking for back-to-back sweeps for the first time since 1982 and ?83.

The Lions are without DE Ziggy Ansah again after being without him for the first meeting and have major absences in the secondary with Nevin Lawson and Jamal Agnew ruled out. Top corner Darius Slay and safety Glover Quin will look to keep Rodgers from finishing with a career-high in passing yards for a single season if he throws for 228 here. Detroit scored 24 or more points in five of its first six games but have failed to top that total in each of its last nine, scoring under 20 in seven of its games. Matthew Stafford threw for two touchdowns against Green Bay in Week 5 but has only thrown for multiple scores in one of his last eight games and has failed to reach the end zone in three of his last five. Not surprisingly, the Lions have seen the ?under? prevail in eight of nine contests.

Jacksonville at Houston (-7/40), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Texans are likely going to be playing next weekend but want to ride into the postseason fresh off a division title and can guarantee avoiding the Chargers with a victory here, likely ensuring a matchup with an AFC South rival they?ll know well since the Colts and and Titans are playing for a bid on Sunday night. If Houston loses, it could find itself on the road in Indy or Nashville, so count on seeing all hands on deck. WR Demaryius Thomas was lost to an achilles injury, so getting rookie Keke Coutee back in the fold would help. RB Lamar Miller will be back from an ankle sprain suffered a few weeks ago, which means Deshaun Watson can count on a loaded backfield behind him. WR DeAndre Hopkins was limited all week due to an ankle sprain but should be out there dueling with Jalen Ramsey.

The Jaguars played spoiler against the Dolphins last week thanks to a strong defensive effort and will be looking for consecutive wins for the first time since opening 2-0. Ramsey?s tag-team partner in the secondary, A.J. Bouye, has been ruled out due to a toe injury, but safety Tashaun Gipson (foot) will participate. Corner D.J. Hayden is questionable with a groin strain. Offensively, Blake Bortles should be back under center instead of the ineffective Cody Kessler, but RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) isn?t likely to go and Carlos Hyde (knee) is questionable, which means T.J. Yeldon should get the bulk of the work in the backfield. Bortles is 1-3 with a passer rating of 56.7 in four career games in Houston. The Texans are 1-1-1 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more.

Atlanta (-2/51.5) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Bucs would love to drag the Falcons into the NFC South basement, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. The Falcons hope to close with three consecutive wins, sweeping Tampa Bay for the season. Matt Ryan threw for three TDs and 355 yards in a 34-29 Week 6 win, outdueling Jameis Winston?s four touchdown passes. Julio Jones caught 10 balls and will be looking to add to his gaudy receiving numbers, while rookie Calvin Ridley could reach double-digits in TD receptions if he gets into the end zone. Ryan?s job will be a lot easier if Jason Pierre-Paul can?t go since he and William Gholston are questionable and edge-rusher Carl Nassib has been ruled out. Temperatures will get into the 80s for this one, so conditioning and depth will count for this unusually hot Week 17 clash.

Miami at Buffalo (-5/39.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: This game was rendered meaningless when the Jaguars got out of South Florida with a turnover-fueled upset, so it remains to be seen how much fight the Dolphins will have as they wake up to snow flurries in Northern New York. In-game weather isn?t expected to include snow, but both teams will have to survive wind gusts that could climb as high as 40 miles per hour. This should definitely favor the Bills, who have won five of six at home in this series. Rookie Josh Allen will look to cap a promising first season in which he leads the Bills in rushing in passing.

Miami looks to finish 8-8 here and will employ everyone healthy enough to help them get it done. It remains to be seen whether everyone is still as willing to put in a solid three hours of work once they get a load of how cold and uncomfortable the weather will be. Head coach Adam Gase?s ability to get his guys to put in the effort for him may dictate whether he keeps his job. QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown for nine touchdowns against just two interceptions since returning to the starting lineup. He threw for three scores in a 21-17 win over Buffalo on Dec. 2.

Oakland at Kansas City (-14/52.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Chiefs closed as a 14-point favorite against the Raiders in Oakland back in Week 13 and prevailed 40-33, giving up a late scoring flurry to avoid securing the cover. They?re looking for an easier time of it at Arrowhead as they look to wrap up the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC and a West Division title. Avoiding taking a three-game into the payoffs would be nice too since it would guarantee that they?ll get to watch everyone else play next weekend instead of suiting up themselves. Kansas City is looking to finish 7-1 at Arrowhead by beating the Raiders at home for the sixth straight time.

Derek Carr has had a rough time of it but will look to finish off the season without an interception for a 12th consecutive week, bringing a streak of 325 passes without being picked into this finale. He?ll have a number of willing targets in Jordy Nelson, Seth Roberts, rookie Marcel Ateman and tight end Seth Roberts, so count on the Kansas City secondary having its hands full. Eric Berry isn?t likely to play, so the Raiders cold make this game interesting if they have success through the air. Patrick Mahomes will try and close out his MVP campaign by finishing up a December in which he?s thrown for over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns. RB Damien Williams, Kansas City?s third starter at the position this season, has topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive weeks and just signed a two-year extension.

Philadelphia (-6/42) at Washington, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: The Eagles will need to take care of business here and get help from the Bears in Minnesota in order to defend their Super Bowl title in the actual postseason, so they?re looking like a longshot. On the bright side, it?s surprising that they?re even in this mix given how bleak things looked when they fell to the Cowboys for a second time on Dec. 9. With Carson Wentz lost for the season, Nick Foles has led Philadelphia to a shocking upset of the Rams in L.A. and last week?s 32-30 rollercoaster ride of a home win over the Texans. Foles? emergence has sparked Alshon Jeffery, while veteran RB Darren Sproles has come up clutch in what could be his final weeks as a pro. Despite being on the road, the defending champs are a substantial favorite in Landover against a Redskins? team on their fourth starting quarterback.

Weather isn?t expected to be a factor, so Foles should be able to let it fly as he looks to follow up a 471-yard effort against the Texans, against whom he threw four touchdown passes. The ?Skins will be without safety D.J. Swearinger, the latest to fall in a cursed season for a team that has lost both starting tight ends while suffering through issues up front and at receiver. Running back Adrian Peterson has been a bright spot and broke off a 90-yard run in the first matchup with the Eagles, a 28-13 loss on Dec. 3. Philadelphia will have Jason Peters and Jason Kelce available to anchor the offensive line and have one of the stronger defensive fronts in all of football to get after Josh Johnson.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6.5/40.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Although the Ravens only need to win to eliminate their arch rival Steelers while reclaiming an AFC North that they haven?t won since 2012, these aren?t the same old Browns they?re used to pushing around who are taking the field against them. Baltimore had won 18 of 20 before losing 10-7 in OT at Cleveland Browns Stadium on Oct. 7. If it can avoid being swept by Cleveland for the first time since ?07, it will open the playoffs right back at M&T Bank Stadium next weekend, hosting a playoff game for the first time since ?12.

Rookie Lamar Jackson has only lost once since taking over as the starter, while top pick Baker Mayfield has similarly won five of six and finds himself thriving under the play-calling of new coordinator Freddie Kitchens. Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were still employed when the Browns took down the Ravens. For that matter, so was Joe Flacco. This will be a chess match where Gregg Williams? aggressive defense will look to bait Jackson into mistakes while being careful with all their trademark blitzes not backfiring with the speedy quarterback running right by them. The physical Ravens will look to harass Mayfield, who has thrown for six touchdowns while being intercepted only once during a three-game winning streak that has the Browns on the brink of their first winning season since 2007.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-14.5/45.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Steelers find themselves in the precarious position of missing the playoffs for the first time since ?13 due to losses in four of five. This stretch has come on the heels of six consecutive wins, but the bottom has fallen out due to careless turnovers and shockingly stupid in-game decisions from people who should know better, namely Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger. Although rookie backup Jaylen Samuels has been productive, James Conner?s production has been missed. He?ll return from a foot injury that has cost him multiple games, but WR Antonio Brown and his 15 touchdowns could be missing due to a knee injury. The decision will come closer to kickoff, but reports aren?t optimistic. JuJu Smith-Schuster, fresh off a costly fumble that helped prevent OT in New Orleans last Sunday, would be Roethlisberger?s top target if Brown can?t go.

The Bengals have been without top targets A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd for weeks. They?ll come into this one with most of their top defensive players sidelined, so it?s no surprise they have lost six of seven. It remains to be seen whether this disastrous season finally costs Marvin Lewis his job, but there isn?t much hope that they?ll be able to hang here despite the fact they only lost 28-21 in the first meeting. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s but winds shouldn?t be a factor.

Chicago at Minnesota (-5.5/40.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: - Outside of Sunday night?s Colts-Titans showdown, this is the lone matchup where both teams are playing to improve their playoff standing. While those two are playing a winner-take-all to see who gets in, the Bears are looking to secure a No. 2 seed with help from the 49ers and the Vikings are attempting to solidify their spot in the NFC?s top-six. If Chicago sees that events out in the Bay Area aren?t going its way, it?s conceivable that key players could find themselves rested in the second half of this one, which makes backing the visitors dicey. WR Allen Robinson has already been ruled out, while safety Eddie Jackson and linebacker Aaron Lynch are considered doubtful.

The Vikings don?t have the luxury of resting anyone, which is why banged-up corner Xavier Rhodes is likely to play if at all possible. Leading tackler Eric Kendricks, corner Marcus Sherels and safety Andrew Sendejo remain out, so the Bears have an opportunity to build some confidence on the offensive side of the ball after scoring only 14 points against San Francisco last Sunday. Chicago has allowed just 10.7 points over its past three games, all wins that have gone ?under? the posted total. The Bears won the first meeting 25-20 in a contest that featured six turnovers, putting them in position to sweep Minnesota for the first time since ?12. The Viking has have won six of eight in the series.

L.A. Chargers (-6.5/43) at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: - The Broncos come off an awful 27-14 loss in Oakland on Christmas eve and can?t even finish at .500, which likely means that Vance Joseph will be fired in the morning regardless of what happens in this final home game. LB Shane Ray may play, but the team?s biggest bright spot, rookie Pro Bowl RB Phillip Lindsey, will miss the game with a wrist injury. Receiver Emmanuel Sanders also played a large role in Denver?s 23-22 upset on Nov. 18 and is currently sidelined, which is one reason Case Keenum has struggled down the stretch.

That upset loss has the Chargers behind the Chiefs due to a divisional record tiebreaker since the teams split their matchups, so they?ll certainly have revenge on their minds. L.A. has only won three of the last 14 meetings between the teams but will be going all out to try and gain a split in order to get to 12-4. Philip Rivers is coming off a rough night in a home loss to Baltimore that produced his worst performance of the season, so he?s got to be pleased to get another crack at finding a rhythm without weather being too significant a factor at Mile High. Although temperatures will be in the mid-30?s, neither wind nor snow is expected to be an issue.

Arizona at Seattle (-13.5/38), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: - The Seahawks can still get bumped to No. 6 in the NFC by the Vikings, but having wrapped up a playoff berth through Sunday night?s huge win over the Chiefs mean they can exercise caution against a team that has been outscored 88-26 over the last three games and will finish with the NFL?s worst record if they falter here. That could spell trouble in covering such a large spread, but Pete Carroll always plays to win and will have the majority of his team available and ready to go.

San Francisco at L.A. Rams (-10.5/48.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: - Todd Gurley has been ruled out, but the Rams still want to pick up this victory to lock up the No. 2 seed in order to avoid playing next weekend. Jared Goff got back on track in a 31-9 victory at Arizona and will be facing a talented defense that had helped pull off upsets against Denver and Seattle before holding the Vikings to just 14 points in a game they could?ve also won. The Rams won 39-10 in Santa Clara back on Oct. 21 and will be the healthier group here, so it?s no surprise to see a double-digit spread.

 

[Udog]

NFL Weather Alert

Cold temps are in the forecast for Lambeau Field this afternoon for #OnePride at #GoPackGo.
Air temperatures in the mid-20's with 15 MPH winds will produce wind chill temps in the teens.
Pointspread: Packers -8
Total: 45.5


NFL Injuries

According to reports, Titans' quarterback Marcus Mariota (stinger) is NOT expected to play in Sunday night's "win and you're in" game vs. the Colts.
Blaine Gabbert will get the start if the reports are correct.
Pointspread: Colts -4
Total: 44


According to reports, Cowboys' running back Ezekiel Elliott (rest) is not expected to play today @ Giants.
Pointspread: Giants -6.5
Total: 40.5


According to reports, Steelers' running back James Conner (ankle) is expected to return and see a full workload today vs. the Bengals.
Pointspread: Steelers -14
Total: 45

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

JAC at HOU 01:00 PM
HOU -7.0
U 40.0

MIA at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -5.0

DET at GB 01:00 PM
U 45.0

CAR at NO 01:00 PM
NO -7.5

ATL at TB 01:00 PM
TB +2.5
O 51.5

NYJ at NE 01:00 PM
NE -14.5
U 47.0

DAL at NYG 01:00 PM
U 38.5

CHI at MIN 04:25 PM
CHI +6.0
U 40.5

CIN at PIT 04:25 PM
CIN +14.0
O 45.0

CLE at BAL 04:25 PM
U 41.0

OAK at KC 04:25 PM
OAK +14.5
O 52.5

PHI at WAS 04:25 PM
PHI -6.0
U 41.5

LAC at DEN 04:25 PM
LAC -7.0
U 43.5

ARI at SEA 04:25 PM
SEA -14.0

SF at LAR 04:25 PM
SF +10.5

IND at TEN 08:20 PM
IND -4.5
U 44.0

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Today, Week 17
December 30, 2018
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Saturday, Jan. 5

Indianapolis at Houston, 4:35 p.m. EST. The Colts romped at Tennessee on Sunday night for the opportunity to face Deshaun Watson and the Texans, who won the AFC South and will make their fifth playoff appearance.

---

Seattle at Dallas, 8:15 p.m. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks wrapped up the No. 5 seed in the NFC on Sebastian Janikowski's 33-yard field goal on the final play for a 27-24 win over Arizona. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys enter the playoffs having won seven of their last eight games.

---

STARS

Passing

- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, passed for 387 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, including three to Blake Jarwin, and added a winning 2-point conversion pass to Michael Gallup with 1:12 to play as playoff-bound Dallas beat the New York Giants 36-35.

- Tom Brady, Patriots, threw for three first-half touchdowns - four overall - and New England clinched its ninth straight first-round bye in the playoffs with a 38-3 win over the New York Jets.

- Jared Goff, Rams, had four touchdown passes to help Los Angeles secure a first-round playoff bye with a 48-32 victory over San Francisco.

- Matt Ryan, Falcons, had his first career reception for a touchdown and also threw for 378 yards and two TDs to help Atlanta top Tampa Bay 34-32.

- Josh Allen, Bills, had a career-best three touchdown passes and scored two more rushing and ran for 95 yards in Buffalo's 42-17 win over Miami.

- Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, was 22 of 35 for 345 yards and four TDs with one interception in Tampa Bay's 34-32 loss to Atlanta.

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Rushing

- C.J. Anderson, Rams, rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown in Los Angeles' 48-32 win over San Francisco in his second 100-yard game in place of Todd Gurley, who sat out again to rest his knees.

- Chris Carson, Seahawks, had 122 yards and a TD on 19 attempts in Seattle's 27-24 win over Arizona.

- Saquon Barkley, Giants, had 109 yards rushing and a touchdown and finished with 142 yards from scrimmage in New York's 36-35 loss to Dallas.

- Kenneth Dixon, Ravens, ran for 117 of Baltimore's season-high 296 yards rushing in a 26-2 win over Cleveland.

- Dwayne Washington, Saints, rushed for 108 yards on 11 carries in New Orleans' 33-14 loss to Carolina.

- Jordan Howard, Bears, had two TD runs and finished with 109 yards on 21 attempts in Chicago's 24-10 win at Minnesota.

- Alfred Morris, 49ers, rushed for 111 yards and a score in San Francisco's 48-32 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

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Receiving

- Blake Jarwin, Cowboys, caught three touchdown passes in Dallas' 36-35 victory over the New York Giants.

- George Kittle, 49ers, had nine receptions for 149 yards and one touchdown in San Francisco's 48-32 loss to the Rams and set the NFL record for most yards receiving in a season by a tight end with 1,377.

- DeAndre Hopkins, Texans, had 12 catches and 147 yards receiving in Houston's 20-3 win over Jacksonville.

- Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds, Rams. Each had two TD catches in Los Angeles' 48-32 win over San Francisco.

- Julio Jones, Falcons, caught nine passes for 138 yards and a TD in Atlanta's 34-32 win at Tampa Bay.

- Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Buccaneers. Each had two touchdown receptions in Tampa Bay's 34-32 loss to Atlanta.

- Zay Jones, Bills, had six catches for 93 yards and two TDs in Buffalo's 42-17 rout of Miami.

---

Special Teams

- Matt Prater, Lions, threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to Levine Toilolo on a fake field-goal try in Detroit's 31-0 victory at Green Bay.

- Sebastian Janikowski, Seahawks, kicked a 33-yard field goal on the final play to lead Seattle to a 27-24 win over Arizona.

- Matt Bryant, Falcons, kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired, provided the winning points in Atlanta's 34-32 victory at Tampa Bay after Jameis Winston rallied the Bucs from a 31-20 deficit to a one-point lead with just over five minutes to go.

- Cameron Malveaux and Dennis Gardeck, Cardinals. Malveaux blocked a punt and Gardeck recovered it for a touchdown in Arizona's 27-24 loss at Seattle.

- Matt McCrane, Steelers, booted three field goals after being acquired earlier in the week, to help Pittsburgh top Cincinnati 16-13.

---

Defense

- Cory Littleton, Rams, returned one of his two interceptions for a TD to help Los Angeles top San Francisco 48-32.

- Kyle Van Noy, Patriots, returned a fumble by Sam Darnold 46 yards for a TD in New England's 38-3 victory over the New York Jets.

- Reshad Jones, Dolphins, scored a touchdown on a 29-yard interception return in Miami's 42-17 loss at Buffalo.

- Daniel Sorensen, Chiefs, brought back an interception 54 yards for a TD in Kansas City's 35-3 win over Oakland.

- Olivier Vernon, Giants, had 2 1/2 sacks in New York's 36-35 loss to Dallas.

- J.J. Watt, Texans, had 1 1/2 sacks in Houston's 20-3 win over Jacksonville to give him 16 this year for his fourth season with 15 or more sacks, second most in NFL history to Reggie White's five.

---

WELCOME!

Seven of the 11 teams that qualified for the playoffs did not play in the postseason last year: Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, the Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis and Seattle.

--

WORST-TO-FIRST

Chicago won the NFC North and Houston took the AFC South title, both completing worst-to-first turnarounds. At least one team has won its division the season after finishing in or tied for last place in 15 of the past 16 seasons.

---

MILESTONES

The Giants' Saquon Barkley ended the season with 91 catches, breaking Reggie Bush's NFL record (88) for most receptions by a rookie running back. The No. 2 overall pick also finished with 2,028 yards from scrimmage, joining Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson (2,212 yards in 1983) and Edgerrin James (2,139 in 1999) as the only rookies with at least 2,000 scrimmage yards in NFL history. ... Houston's DeAndre Hopkins had 12 catches and 147 yards receiving against Jacksonville, giving him 115 receptions and 1,572 yards receiving - both career highs. His catch total tied Andre Johnson (2008) for the most in franchise history. He's the fourth player in NFL history (Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison and Brandon Marshall) to have at least 100 receptions, 1,500 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns in multiple seasons. ... Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who ran for 66 yards, is the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 4,000 yards (4,165) and 25 touchdowns (26) and rush for 500 yards (551) and five touchdowns (five) in a season. ... Carolina's Christian McCaffrey and New Orleans' Alvin Kamara joined Herschel Walker as the only running backs in NFL history to have 1,500 yards rushing and receiving in their first two NFL seasons combined. ... Buffalo's Josh Allen had eight TD runs this season, the second most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Cam Newton had 14 in 2011. With a 35-yard scamper in the third quarter of the Bills' 42-17 win over Miami, Allen topped the single-season team record for yards rushing by a quarterback with 630. ... Cleveland's Baker Mayfield threw three touchdown passes in a 26-24 loss at Baltimore to finish with 27, an NFL record for a rookie.

---

STREAKS & STATS

Miami's defense allowed 381 yards in a 42-17 loss at Buffalo to finish the season with a franchise-worst 6,257 yards allowed. Its previous worst was 6,122, set in 2016. ... Detroit's 31-0 victory at Green Bay gave the Lions their fourth straight win against their NFC North rival for the first time since 1982-83. ... New England clinched its ninth straight first-round bye in the playoffs with a 38-3 victory over the New York Jets. ... Carolina led New Orleans 23-0 at halftime, marking the first time since coach Sean Payton was hired by New Orleans in 2006 that the Saints were shut out at home in a first half. The Panthers won 33-14.

---

HIT THE ROAD

Some teams started cleaning out their coaching staffs right away. The New York Jets fired Todd Bowles after four seasons and a 24-40 record with no playoffs. Tampa Bay also parted ways with Dirk Koetter after he was 19-29 in three years with the Buccaneers. Cleveland and Green Bay are also looking for new coaches after making in-season changes.

---

HOME SWEET HOME

The Patriots finished the season undefeated at home, where they'll have at least one playoff game. After back-to-back December losses left the Patriots with a losing record on the road, they finished with two straight wins in New England to finish with the NFL's only perfect home record and avoid playing in the wild-card round for the first time since 2009.

---

KC MASTERPIECES

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes this season, joining Peyton Manning (55 in 2013) and Tom Brady (50 in 2007) as the only players with at least 50 in a single season in NFL history. Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill had five receptions for 101 yards and two touchdowns, including a 67-yard reception in a 35-3 win over Oakland, giving him 16 career TDs of at least 50 yards - tying him with Gale Sayers for the most such scores by a player in his first three seasons. Hill also set the Chiefs' single-season record with 1,479 yards receiving.

---

TENACIOUS TEXANS

The Houston Texans clinched the AFC South title as Deshaun Watson threw for 234 yards and ran for a touchdown, and DeAndre Hopkins had 147 yards receiving in a 20-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans (11-5) won nine in a row after starting 0-3 to save their season, and will make their fifth playoff appearance after winning the division for the fifth time in franchise history. Houston returns to the postseason for the third time in four years after bouncing back from last year's 4-12 record in a season when Watson and J.J. Watt sustained season-ending injuries.

---

DAK ATTACK

Dallas' Dak Prescott threw a 32-yard fourth-down touchdown pass to Cole Beasley on a play that was reversed by video replay and added a winning 2-point conversion pass to Michael Gallup with 1:12 to play as the NFC East champion Cowboys rallied twice in the final 10 minutes to beat the New York Giants 36-35. Prescott was 27 of 44 for 387 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, three to tight end Blake Jarwin.

---

FOND FAREWELL

Buffalo's Kyle Williams, who is retiring, got to enjoy his final game by contributing on both offense and defense in the Bills' 42-17 win over Miami. On first-and-10 from Miami's 40, Williams caught a 9-yard pass with under five minutes left. The crowd cheered and began chanting ''Kyle Williams!'' after he made the catch and was pushed out bounds. With 2 minutes left, the crowd stood and began chanting: ''Thank you, Kyle!'' The only thing missing was a sack from Williams, who closed the season with five and his career with 48+ - the most by a Bills defensive tackle.

---

STEPPING IN

Undrafted rookie Kyle Allen passed for 228 yards and two touchdowns before injuring his shoulder, and the Carolina Panthers cruised to a 33-14 victory over a Saints squad looking ahead to the playoffs. Allen, a third-stringer pressed into service with Cam Newton and backup Taylor Heinicke out, also ran for a short touchdown as Carolina snapped a seven-game slide. He led the Panthers to three TDs and a field goal on the first four drives of his first NFL start. He played until the fourth quarter, when he was hit hard by Saints rookie end Marcus Davenport while releasing an incomplete pass.

---

TEDDY'S BACK

Having already clinched the NFC's top seed, New Orleans coach Sean Payton scratched several healthy offensive starters against Carolina, including record-setting quarterback Drew Brees. That gave Teddy Bridgewater the opportunity to start an NFL game for the first time since the 2015 season. The move gave Bridgewater a chance to rebuild his credentials as a potential NFL starter after missing most of the past two seasons with a career-threating knee injury. He struggled much of the game, however, going 14 of 22 for 118 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Saints' 33-1 loss.

---

THEY CAN CATCH, TOO

A pair of quarterbacks caught touchdown passes in their games Sunday, with Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Miami's Ryan Tannehill doing their best wide receiver impressions. It marked the first week in the Super Bowl era in which multiple quarterbacks recorded a TD reception.

---

SIDELINED

The Philadelphia Eagles were down to their third-string quarterback at the end of their playoff-clinching victory over the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Nick Foles left the game with a chest injury in the fourth quarter, and Nate Sudfeld relieved him and threw a 22-yard touchdown pass on his only attempt. Foles said after the game he was sore near his ribs and would know more Monday. ... Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers left with a concussion in the second quarter of the Packers' 31-0 loss to the Detroit Lions. ... Los Angeles Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth left the field gingerly with a knee injury in the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers. He didn't return, but rookie Joseph Noteboom appeared to play well in his absence. Coach Sean McVay said he was cautiously optimistic Whitworth's injury is no more than a bruise. ... Kansas City, the AFC's top seed, had three defensive players injured in a victory over the Oakland Raiders: linebacker Reggie Ragland (hip), free safety Jordan Lucas (neck) and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (concussion). ... The NFC North champion Chicago Bears could be thin at wide receiver for their playoff game against the Eagles next week. Anthony Miller injured a shoulder against the Vikings and didn't return. Taylor Gabriel suffered a rib injury a little later, leaving the Bears with only three healthy receivers.

---

SPEAKING

''No matter the situation, even when it's not looking good, everybody wants to ignore us and say we're finished. We just ignored the noise, come to fight, work hard, every week.'' - New England safety Duron Harmon after the Patriots' secured a first-round bye with a 38-3 win over the Jets.

---

''Slow delivery, lollipop, but it was on target, so that was a plus,'' Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford on kicker Matt Prater, who threw an 8-yard TD pass to Levin Toilolo on a fake field goal in the Lions' 31-0 win at Green Bay.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL December's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/30/2018 16-9-0 64.00% +30.50
12/24/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/23/2018 11-13-1 45.83% -16.50
12/22/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/17/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/16/2018 11-12-1 47.83% -11.00
12/15/2018 3-0-1 100.00% +15.00
12/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/10/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/09/2018 11-13-0 45.83% -16.50
12/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/03/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/02/2018 12-11-0 52.17% -0.50

Totals...............75-63-0.....54.34%....+28.50

********************

Best Bets For December

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

12/30/2018............6 - 2................+24.00.....................7 - 5................+7.50............+31.50
12/24/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................1 - 0................+5.00...........+10.00
12/23/2018............6 - 3................+13.50.....................3 - 5................-12.50...........+1.00
12/22/2018............1 - 1.................-0.50.......................1 - 1.................-0.50............-1.00
12/17/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/16/2018............2 - 5................-17.50......................5 - 2................+14.00..........-3.50
12/15/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................2 - 0................+10.00.........+15.00
12/13/2018............1 - 0................+5.00.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-0.50
12/10/2018............0 - 1.................-5.50.......................0 - 1.................-5.50............-11.00
12/09/2018............3 - 3.................-1.50.......................5 - 6.................-3.00.............-4.50
12/06/2018............1 - 0 ................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/03/2018............1 - 0.................+5.00......................1 - 0................+5.00............+10.00
12/02/2018............3 - 4..................-7.00......................0 - 3................-16.50............-23.50

Totals..................27 - 19...............+35.50....................26 - 24...............+8.00...........+43.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 17 a wash for Books
December 31, 2018
By Micah Roberts

The NFL packed all 16 games of Week 17 into a nice little Sunday package with playoff berths on the line and while the day was packed with drama, it didn't translate into a winning day for most sports books.

"It's just okay, and it won't be very good no matter what happens in the late game," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews.

William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said their Sunday "looks like a wash."

"Good results thus far," Wynn sports book director Doug Castaneda said prior to the Sunday night kickoff.

"The Lions and Browns were good games for us. This whole day hinges on the Sunday night match-up and we need the Titans. It's our biggest Sunday night football decision we've had this season."

Biggest decision? Wow. No specific figures, but my guess would be close to $400,000 in risk with the clientele Wynn has.

The Lions (+7.5) went into Green Bay and won 31-0 and the Browns (+6) got the cover at Baltimore in a 26-24 loss.

"If the Colts cover it's going to be a losing day," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick.

The Colts won at Tennessee, 33-17, to cap off a great season. After starting 1-5, the Colts won nine of their last 10 games (6-3-1 ATS) and will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Up first for the Colts will be a visit to division rival Houston, who they split with in two previous meetings, a 37-34 loss in Week 4 and a 24-21 win at Houston in Week 14. The Texans are a 2.5-point favorite in Saturday's Wild Card meeting.

"No good," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal regarding Sunday's results. "The Texans, Eagles, Patriots, Cowboys and Bears hurt us."

The Texans (-7) won 20-3 at home against the Jaguars. The Eagles (-7) wrangled their way into the playoffs with a 24-0 win at Washington, coupled with the Bears 24-10 win at Minnesota (-4.5). The Patriots (-14) mopped up the Jets in a 38-3 blowout and the Cowboys won a wild one, 36-35, at the Giants (-7.5). Runnign back Ezekiel Elliott didn't play, but quarterback Dak Prescott did. He played the entire game and played well.

The Cowboys are 2.5-point home favorites on Saturday night against the Seahawks. The Eagles are getting +6 at Chicago in Sunday's late Wild Card game. QB Nick Foles is saving the Eagles again, winning his last three starts for the Eagles.

The Steelers (-14.5) struggled in a 16-13 win against the Bengals and finished the season on a 2-4 run to blow the division in an epic choke job. They needed the Ravens to lose, but the Ravens took care of business.

The Ravens might be the scariest team in the playoffs with the No. 1 ranked defense and rookie QB Lamar Jackson proving to be unstoppable. They've won six of their last seven, one of which was 22-10 win at the Chargers in Week 16. The Chargers go to Baltimore Sunday where the Ravens are -1.5.

The Chargers (-6.5) won 23-9 at Denver on Sunday to cap off a 12-4 season. The Broncos lost their last four games of the season. The Chiefs won the AFC West with a 12-4 record and clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC by beating the Raiders 35-3, easily covering the 14-point spread.

The Rams (-10.5) clinched the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a 48-32 win against the visiting 49ers. The Bears were scoreboard watching with hopes of getting the No. 2 seed and a bye, and when it was apparent the Rams weren't going to lose the Bears could have pulled all their starters, but they went full throttle and ended the Vikings season.

It wasn't all doom and gloom for the sports books.

"Great day because the season-long props went our way," said Westgate Superbook VP Jay Kornegay.

"Even though we split our top games, results were positive. We were able to grind out small wins across the board. But the season win props were very positive. Our biggest win came from the Vikings missing the playoffs. We took a large wager on Minnesota to make the playoffs before the season started. The divisions and season wins were both winners."

The favorites went 7-9 against the spread on Sunday with four underdogs winning outright, the biggest being the Panthers 33-14 win at New Orleans who rested QB Drew Brees. The win paid out +310 at the Mirage and ended the Panthers seven-game losing streak. Totals went 8-8 on the day.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 17 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-4
Against the Spread 8-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-8
Against the Spread 6-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 167-87-2
Against the Spread 113-133-10

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 153-101-2
Against the Spread 120-126-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 119-135-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Lions (+7.5, ML + ) at Packers, 31-0
Panthers (+7.5, ML + ) at Saints, 33-14
Cowboys (+7, ML + ) at Giants, 36-35
Bears (+6, ML + ) at Vikings, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-14) vs. Raiders, 35-3
Patriots (-14) vs. Jets, 38-3
Chargers (-7) at Broncos, 23-9
Texans (-7) vs. Jaguars, 20-3

Buy Byes

-- In Week 17 it was time to buy teams playing for byes. The New England Patriots (-14) routed the New York Jets to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. The Kansas City Chiefs (-14) weren't about to falter, spanking the Oakland Raiders by a 35-3 count to not leave any doubt. The Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) were also able to lock up a first-round bye with a 48-32 victory against the San Francisco 49ers, although the Niners did make them work for it.

Saint Nick

-- The Philadelphia Eagles might not be able to afford QB Nick Foles past these playoffs, but thanks to him they're able to at least qualify and get a chance to defend their Super Bowl title. Foles led the Eagles to their third consecutive victory, an easy cover (-6) on the road against the Washington Redskins. It was reported during the week that the Redskins, decimated by injury, actually had as many as 13 players on their roster who had never played a regular-season game at FedEx Field before. Easy money, and a late present from Saint Nick.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs (53.5), but the Raiders didn't live up to their end of the bargain. They managed a lone field goal as the total never even came close in the 35-3 K.C. victory. The other two games with 50-plus totals on the board, the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52) and San Francisco 49ers-Los Angeles Rams (50) easily hit the over.

-- There were three games on the board with totals in the 30's -- Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants (38.5), Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills (39.5) and the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (39.5). The Cowboys and Giants each nearly made the total go over on their own, as Dallas outlasted New York 36-35. The Bills were able to take care of the over in their game, dropping a season-high 42 points in their victory over the Dolphins. As for the Texans, well they were busy securing the AFC South and locking down the Jags' offense, but they didn't pile up the numbers in the 20-3 win.

-- The 'over' was 1-0 in the final week, as Indianapolis Colts-Tennessee Titans (42.5) ended up connecting with 50 total points. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games ended up 26-25 (51.0%), the lowest percentage of 'over' results since 2015.

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears WR Anthony Miller (shoulder) reportedly had his shoulder pop out, and he was unable to return. His status for next weekend's wild-card game against Philly is up in the air.

-- Eagles QB Nick Foles (chest) checked out in the second half in Washington with a chest injury, although the Eagles said after the game he is expected to be fine for next weekend's wild-card game in Chicago.

Looking Ahead

-- The Colts and Texans each won on each other's field during the regular season. Indianapolis enters 6-0 ATS in the past six against winning teams while going 4-1 ATS in the past five road games against a team with a winning home record. However, they're 1-4 ATS in the past five playoff road games. For the Texans, they're 4-1 ATS in the past five at home, and 4-1 ATS in the past five inside the division, too. However, they're 1-5 ATS in the past six against winning teams.

-- Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to Houston, while going 8-3-2 ATS in the past 13 meetings overall. The underdog is 5-2-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, with the road team 7-1-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their past six against winning teams, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five on the road. They're also 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 overall. However, they have covered just one of the past six in the playoffs. For the Cowboys, they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against NFC clubs, while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight overall. They are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 in the playoffs, however, and 1-4 ATS in the past five playoff games at home.

-- The Ravens beat the Chargers on the road 22-10, a key victory in their march to the AFC North title. The Chargers won on the road in Week 17, and are 21-8-1 ATS in the past 30 on the road overall. They're also 6-2 ATS in the past eight playoff games. For Baltimore, they have covered seven straight in the postseason, and five straight in the wild-card round.

-- The defending champion Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the past five overall, and they're 6-2 ATS in the past eight playoff road outings. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five in the wild-card round. The Bears finished the season with four straight covers, and they're 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight at home against teams with a winning road mark. They're also 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 at home and 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams.

 

[Cnotes53]

Ravens favored, but book likes Chargers' odds in NFL wild-card round
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and Baltimore held on for a Week 17 win over Cleveland to claim the AFC North and punch their playoff ticket. The Ravens opened -2.5 for a Sunday home game against the Chargers.

After a wild 17 weeks of regular-season play, it?s time to look ahead to wild-card weekend in the NFL. We check in on the opening lines and early action for next weekend?s four playoff games, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Los Angeles tied for the best record in the AFC, yet is the No. 5 seed and on the road to open the postseason. The Chargers (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS), who lost a tiebreaker to Kansas City for the AFC West title, finished the regular season with a 23-9 victory at Denver as 7-point favorites.

Baltimore won six of its last seven games to overtake Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, earning the No. 4 seed in the process. The Ravens (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) had to win Sunday to reach the playoffs and got a huge scare, thwarting a Cleveland rally to win 26-24 as 7-point home faves.

?This is a situation where we like the ?dog,? Wilkinson said. ?We initially discussed having the game as a pick or even favoring the Chargers by a point, but the other markets like the Ravens. I think this line will drop quickly and could even favor the Chargers by game day.?

Kickoff is at 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Dallas had nothing to play for in Week 17, stuck in the No. 4 slot for the NFC playoffs. But the Cowboys (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) went out and played anyway, only holding out Ezekiel Elliott, and edged the New York Giants 36-35 as 7.5-point road underdogs.

Seattle went on a 6-1 SU run to cap the regular season and nab a wild-card spot as the No. 5 seed. In Week 17, the Seahawks (10-6 SU, 9-5-2 ATS) let Arizona hang around the whole game, but claimed a 27-24 win laying 14 points at home.

?We opened on the low end of the market here, because we like Seattle,? Wilkinson said of this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday meeting. ?Most of the market is at -2.5 (-120) or -3. I think the sharp money will be on the Seahawks, but the line will probably move toward Dallas, because of too much public money.?

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (no line)

Chicago enters the postseason as the No. 3 seed after winning the NFC North title. The Bears (12-4 SU and ATS), the No. 1 spread-covering team in the NFL, dropped Minnesota 24-10 as 6-point road pups in Week 17.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia took it right down to the Week 17 wire, but got back into the playoffs as a wild card with the No. 6 seed. The Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) blanked Washington 24-0 giving 6 points on the road.

However, Philly quarterback Nick Foles suffered a rib injury late in the game. That prompted The SuperBook to hold off on posting this line, until Foles? status is clarified for this Sunday contest with a 4:40 p.m. ET start.

?I think it?ll open around Bears -6 and the line will go up,? Wilkinson said. ?The Bears are a much better team than Philly, and they?re at home.?

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-2.5)

It?s likely that nobody is looking forward to facing Indianapolis in the playoffs, with Frank Reich?s squad on a 9-1 SU tear (6-3-1 ATS) en route to the No. 6 seed. The Colts ended the regular season in a winner-take-all game at Tennessee and posted a 33-17 victory as 6-point favorites.

After losing its first three games, Houston went on a 9-0 SU run (6-3 ATS) to get back on track. Despite a 2-2 mark in the last four weeks, the Texans (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) won the AFC South and the No. 3 seed. Houston finished with a 20-3 win over Jacksonville as 7-point home faves.

?This is another one where anticipate the ?dog covering or winning outright,? Wilkinson said of this 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday matchup.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFC Wild Card Notes
VI News

Saturday, January 5, 2019

NFC ? Seattle at Dallas ? 8:15 p.m. (FOX)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Dallas -3, 41 ?

Seattle Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Dallas Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Seahawks and Cowboys hooked up at CenturyLink Field in Week 3 as Seattle took care of Dallas, 24-13 as one-point favorites. It was Seattle's first win of the season following an 0-2 start as Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes for the Seahawks. Seattle jumped out to a 24-6 lead before Dallas scored its only touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

The Cowboys have lost each of the last three matchups with the Seahawks since 2015, while these teams last met in the playoffs in the famous Tony Romo fumble on the snap of the potential game-winning field goal in a 21-20 loss in the 2006 Wild Card round.

Playoff Notes: The Seahawks are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons after missing the postseason in 2017. Seattle owns a perfect 3-0 record in its previous three Wild Card contests since 2012, while not losing in its first playoff game during this stretch.

Dallas is making its third playoff appearance since 2014, as the Cowboys were knocked out in the divisional playoffs by the Packers in the final seconds in 2016. In its previous appearance in the Wild Card round in 2014, the Cowboys edged past the Lions, 24-20, but failed to cash as six-point favorites.

Total Notes: After starting the season with a 5-2 mark to the 'under,' the Cowboys finished with 'overs' in five of the final nine contests. Dallas hit the 'over' in five of eight games at AT&T Stadium, while going 4-2 to the 'over' as a home favorite.

The Seahawks were also a strong 'under' team to start the season by cashing in six of the first eight games. However, Seattle closed with 'overs' in seven of the last eight contests, including 'overs' in its final three road affairs.


Sunday, January 6, 2019

NFC ? Philadelphia at Chicago ? 4:40 p.m. (NBC)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Chicago -5 ?, 42

Philadelphia Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Chicago Home Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Eagles and Bears didn't match up this season, but Philadelphia destroyed Chicago in 2017 at Lincoln Financial Field, 31-3. Chicago has lost three consecutive meetings with Philadelphia since 2013, while these clubs last dueled in the playoffs back in 2001. The Eagles cruised past the Bears at Soldier Field, 33-19 to advance to the NFC Championship.

Playoff Notes: Chicago finished at the bottom of the NFC North in the previous four seasons prior to capturing the division title in 2018. The Bears last reached the playoffs in 2010 when they advanced to the NFC Championship before falling to the rival Packers. Chicago last participated in the Wild Card round back in 1994 when it routed Minnesota, as the Bears own a 4-5 record in the playoffs the last 25 seasons.

The Eagles picked up their first Super Bowl title last season by knocking off the Patriots, while winning all three games as an underdog. Philadelphia has lost in past three opportunities in the Wild Card round since 2009, while last playing a road playoff game in 2009 against Dallas in a 34-14 defeat.

Total Notes: The Eagles posted a 9-7 mark to the 'under,' while going 5-3 to the 'over' away from Lincoln Financial Field. During last season's Super Bowl run, Philadelphia cashed the 'over' in two of three victories.

Chicago closed the season with four consecutive 'unders,' as the Bears limited those four opponents to 17 points or less in each contest. The total was a toss-up at Soldier Field as the Bears went 4-4 to the 'over,' but Chicago allowed 22 points or less in seven of eight home games.

 

[Cnotes53]

AFC Wild Card Notes
VI News

Saturday, January 5, 2019

AFC ? Indianapolis at Houston? 4:35 p.m. (ESPN)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Houston -2, 47 ?

Indianapolis Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: The visitor won and covered both games in the regular season but the first encounter from Indianapolis in Week 4 could?ve and probably should?ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. That victory helped the Texans run off nine straight wins but sure enough, Indy snapped that winning streak and got revenge in Week 14 with a 24-21 road win over Houston.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck owns a 6-4 career record versus Houston which includes a 3-2 mark on the road. The last four meetings at Houston were decided by five points or less.

Playoff Notes: The Colts haven?t been in the playoffs since the 2014 regular season. That season, they defeated the Bengals in the Wild Card round at home before upsetting Denver on the road in the Divisional Playoffs. Unfortunately, the club was blasted 45-7 by the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Indianapolis is 3-3 with Luck in the playoffs, 2-1 in Wild Card games and 1-3 overall on the road.

Houston went 1-1 in last year?s postseason, defeating a short-handed Oakland squad 27-14 at home in the Wild Card before losing 34-16 at Foxboro in the Divisional round. Head coach Bill O?Brien is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs. Houston as a franchise is 3-4 overall, 3-1 at home.

Total Notes: The Texans saw the ?under? go 9-7 on the season and 5-3 at home. The defense surrendered 15.3 points per game in their final four at NRG Stadium, which led to a 3-1 ?under? record.
Indianapolis saw its total results go 8-8 this season, 4-4 both home and away. The Colts offense was a tad shakier on the road (24.2 PPG) but they posted 28 and 33 points in their last two games, which led to ?over? tickets.

Including a split in this year?s regular season meetings, the ?under? has gone 6-2 in the past eight encounters between the pair.


Sunday, January 6, 2019

AFC ? L.A. Chargers at Baltimore ? 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

Opening Line (12/30/18): Baltimore -3, 41 ?

L.A. Chargers Road Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS
Baltimore Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Ravens defeated the Chargers 22-10 in Week 16 as four-point road underdogs in a primetime game played on a Saturday from Los Angeles. Prior to this encounter, the pair split two regular season games from Baltimore in 2014 and 2015 and the outcomes were decided by a combined four points (29-26, 34-33).

Playoff Notes: The Chargers haven?t been in the playoffs since the 2013 regular season. They went 1-1 in the playoffs, winning the Wild Card game at the Bengals before losing to the Broncos in the Divisional Playoff round. QB Philip Rivers is 4-5 all-time in the playoffs but make a note that Los Angeles is 3-0 in Wild Card games.

This will be the first trip to the playoffs for Baltimore since the 2014 regular season. The Ravens went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS in that postseason. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh owns a 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS all-time playoff record and what?s really impressive is that only two of those games were at home, both victories.

Total Notes: The Chargers saw their total results split evenly (8-8) this season but they had a 5-3 ?over? lean on the road. Los Angeles averaged slightly more points on the road (26.9 PPG) this season than at home (26.6 PPG). The Bolts made three trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season and scored 31, 36 and 33 points. Along with winning each game, the ?over? connected in all three as well.

Baltimore watched the ?under? go 9-7 this season which included a 4-4 total record from M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens defense (17.9 PPG) is ranked second in scoring and including the first meeting with the Chargers, they only allowed 17 PPG in four games versus the AFC West this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 5

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (11 - 5) - 1/5/2019, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-3 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (10 - 6) at DALLAS (10 - 6) - 1/5/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 6

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LA CHARGERS (12 - 4) at BALTIMORE (10 - 6) - 1/6/2019, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) at CHICAGO (12 - 4) - 1/6/2019, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Wildcard Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Saturday, January 5

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games on the road
Indianapolis is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 25 games
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


Sunday, January 6

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 24 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Chicago is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



FOLES HAS BRUISED RIBS

Coach Doug Pederson confirmed on Monday afternoon that quarterback Nick Foles is healthy enough to start at Chicago on Sunday as the Eagles visit the Bears (Chicago -6, O/U 41). He is dealing with bruised ribs that he originally suffered in Week 16 and then aggravated when he took a sack in the fourth quarter against Washington on Sunday. (Side note: It was a very costly sack for Foles as he wound up falling four snaps shy of a $1 million bonus.)

He will likely be backed up by Nate Sudfeld as reports on Sunday noted that Carson Wentz is not expected to play in the playoffs (though, as of Monday, Wentz remained on the active roster). Sudfeld went 1-for-1 for 22 yards and a touchdown in relief of Foles against Washington.

Foles has passed for 270, 471, and 221 yards since becoming the starter but will be in tough on Sunday against the No. 1 ranked defense in passing DVOA. Here?s the key: Chicago posted the third-most sacks in the league with 50, just two behind co-leaders Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is average at protecting the quarterback and is allowing 2.5 sacks per game, ranked 16th in the NFL.

With bruised ribs, Foles will be just one hit away from having to sit for a series or two, or from being knocked from the game altogether. We?ll revisit this situation later in the week based on injury updates but if it seems that Foles is hurting we?ll be looking to fade his passing yards total.


GORDON EXPECTED TO GO

The L.A. Chargers seem to have dodged a possible bullet as reports say that Melvin Gordon?s ankle injury isn?t serious. The running back picked up the injury late in L.A.?s win over Denver but is expected to suit up on Sunday at Baltimore (Ravens -2.5, O/U 41.5).

Gordon did not look like himself in the final two weeks of the regular season after returning from a three-game absence, posting rushing lines of 12-41 against Baltimore in Week 16 and 10-42 against Denver in Week 17, while catching three passes in each of the two games. In fact, it was Austin Ekeler who impressed in the regular-season finale with a rushing line of 8-58-1.

It?s quite possible that Gordon is operating at less than 100 percent, which will make Sunday?s matchup against a Ravens run defense that allows just 82.9 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, that much more difficult. It will be important to see how much work Gordon gets in at practice throughout the week but as of today, we?ll be looking to fade him by backing the Under for his rushing yards total.


HENRY TO DEBUT

The Chargers might get an offensive boost for the Wild Card round as tight end Hunter Henry is expected to make his season debut. Henry has been on the PUP list all season with a torn ACL that he suffered during OTAs in May. The 2016 second-round pick was expected to play a big role in the Chargers? offense this season after posting 12 touchdowns through his first 29 games.

It?s hard to envision Henry playing a full complement of snaps in his return but, at the same time, the Chargers wouldn?t be activating him if they didn?t think he could contribute. It?s also a tough matchup against Baltimore?s third-ranked defense in passing DVOA, although it should be noted that the Ravens rank just 23rd in DVOA in defending tight ends. We just don?t see the volume being there as he steps onto a field for the first time this season, however, and recommend staying away from backing Henry.


PASS HAPPY IN HOUSTON?

The first Wild Card game on Saturday sees Houston hosting Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 47. The one thing that really jumps out at this matchup is that it features two very good run defenses. Houston is ranked No. 1 in rushing DVOA and Indy comes in at No. 5 when using the same metric. The Texans allow just 82.7 rushing yards per game and the Colts 101.6.

Then there?s the offenses. Houston?s run game has disappeared with just 137 rushing yards on its last 60 carries from running backs. Indianapolis has Marlon Mack, who is coming off a very nice 119-yard performance on Sunday, but he posted just 33 rushing yards on 14 carries the last time these two teams played on Dec. 9. Lamar Miller posted 33 yards on 14 carries in that game that ended 24-21 even though there were 751 yards of total offense.

The earlier matchup between these two division rivals ended 37-34 in a game featured 944 yards of total offense. Both teams have franchise players at quarterback and they will be the ones deciding this game as both teams will likely abandon the run game early. Take the Over 47 before the total grows.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round


Saturday January 5

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 101-102
January 5, 2019 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
139.556
Houston
132.938
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+2); Under

Seattle @ Dallas

Game 103-104
January 5, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
136.197
Dallas
139.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-1); Over


Sunday, January 6

LA Chargers @ Baltimore

Game 105-106
January 6, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
139.364
Baltimore
134.870
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 4 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+2 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Game 107-108
January 6, 2019 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.680
Chicago
130.441
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+6); Under

 

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



MARTIN TO RETURN TO THE TRENCHES

The Dallas Cowboys will get a big boost for Saturday?s Wild Card game against Seattle with the return of right guard Zack Martin. The All-Pro has missed the last two weeks and will be a huge boost to both the running game and Dak Prescott?s protection.

Elliott, in particular, should benefit the most and he is lined up to have a big day on Saturday. He didn?t play a snap in Week 17, meaning he?ll be fresh on two weeks of rest. Elliott will also be facing a very mediocre run defense that ranks 17th in rushing DVOA and allows 113.2 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Elliott is averaging 107.7 rushing yards on 22.1 carries since Week 10 and ran for 127 yards on 16 carries (7.9 YPC) on the road when these teams met in Seattle in Week 3. We?re expecting Elliott to be at his best on Saturday and we?ll be backing the Over for his rushing yards total.


CARSON GETS DAY OFF

Seahawks running back Chris Carson did not practice on Tuesday but the day off was not related to an injury. It appears that the Seahawks were simply giving their bell cow an extra day of rest in the short week ahead of their Wild Card matchup on Saturday.

Carson faces a tough matchup against a Cowboys defense that is ranked fifth in rushing DVOA and allows just 94.6 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. Don?t expect the tough matchup to deter the Seahawks from running the ball, however. Seattle runs the ball on 52.8 percent of its offensive plays, by far the highest mark in the NFL (Tennessee is second at 48.4 percent).

Carson had 22, 22, and 27 carries in Weeks 14-16 before getting a slight rest with 19 in the regular-season finale against Arizona. When the Seahawks hosted Dallas back in Week 3, Carson had a season-high 32 carries. We expect both teams to go run heavy on Sunday, in an effort to control the clock and the tempo of the game, with Carson getting his usual 20-plus carries. Take the Over on his rushing attempts total if it?s set anywhere around 20-21.


FADING MILLER (AGAIN)

Texans running back Lamar Miller ran for 56 yards on 17 carries in Week 17, which got us a winner as we had suggested taking the Under 60.5 on his rushing yards total. The mediocre rushing output was, however, an improvement for Houston after its backs had gained just 81 yards over their previous 43 carries for a putrid 1.9 yards per carry. In Week 17, it was quarterback Deshaun Watson who was the Texans? leading rusher with 66 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.

Houston hosts Indianapolis in the early game on Saturday (Texans -2.5, O/U 47). The Colts quietly have an excellent run defense with a No. 4 rank in rushing DVOA and allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the league at 101.6. Derrick Henry ran for 93 yards in 16 carries against Indy on Sunday night but that should be considered a big win for the Colts considering Henry was the hottest back in football heading into Week 17. We?re suggesting the Under for Miller's rushing yards total once again this weekend.


COUTEE COMING BACK

Houston receiver Keke Coutee is practicing in full this week and should be a full-go for Saturday's game against Indy. Coutee hasn?t played since Week 12 because of a hamstring injury but he could be counted on to play a big role in the Wild Card round, especially due to the season-ending injury to Demaryius Thomas.

Coutee?s role on Saturday will be very hard to predict. Earlier in the season, when he was healthy and before Thomas was traded to Houston, Coutee was heavily involved as a slot receiver. In his four full games, he posted receiving lines of 11-109, 6-51-1, 3-33, and 5-77. He was forced to leave two other games with the hamstring issue which led to lines of 1-3 and 2-14. If he is indeed healthy, he could see a nice complement of targets in what we expect to be a pass-heavy game from both teams. However, it?s also possible that he has simply missed too much time to be relevant in a playoff game. We?ll be monitoring his status throughout the week ? particularly as to whether he?ll be a starting wideout ? but as of today we?re leaning towards grabbing the Over on his receptions total (which should be set quite low due to his long absence).

 

[Udog]

NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Bears 12-4 ATS
2. Seahawks 9-5-2 ATS
t3. Saints 10-6 ATS
t3. Browns 10-6 ATS
5. Chiefs 9-6-1 ATS
t6. 6 teams tied at 9-7 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Bengals, Washington, Lions)


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t31. 49ers 5-11
t31. Falcons 5-11
30. Jets 5-10-1
29. Jaguars 5-9-2
28. Raiders 6-10
t26. Packers 6-9-1
t26. Broncos 6-9-1
t25. 3 teams tied at 7-9 (Bills, Panthers, Eagles)


NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 10-5-1
2. Jets 10-6
t3. Falcons 9-7
t3. Giants 9-7
t3. 49ers 9-7
t3. Seahawks 9-7
t3. Buccaneers 9-7
8. Bengals 8-6-2


NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 12-3-1
2. Patriots 11-5
t3. Lions 10-6
t3. Jaguars 10-6
t3. Vikings 10-6
t4. 8 teams tied at 7-9 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans,Saints, Eagles, Redskins)

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack

Odds for the PGA Tour event in Hawai?i this week:

Dustin Johnson +550

Jon Rahm +750

Justin Thomas +800

Brooks Koepka +900

Bryson Dechambeau, Rory McIlroy +1000

Jason Day +1200

Quote of the Day
?I still have a lot of time making the decision, working with my family and teammates and coaches to figure out what?s best for me. But right now I?m excited to get this win. Excited to leave Coach with this victory for myself and the rest of the teammates. It?s a blessed situation right now.?
Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins, on whether he?ll enter the NFL Draft this year

Thursday?s quiz
How many current NFL head coaches have won a Super Bowl as a HC?

Wednesday?s quiz
Russell Wilson was the only NFL QB to take every offensive snap for his team this season.

Tuesday?s quiz
Shaquille O?Neal played his college basketball at LSU.


Thursday?s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud??.

13) Winner of the Westgate SuperBook handicapping contest this season won $1.422M Sunday night, when the Colts beat Tennessee, edging two entrants who both had Tennessee in that game- those two guys, who needed Blaine Gabbert to cover the spread in order to have a shot at the big prize, both banked $409,000.

Imagine being involved in a game with a $1M swing and your side?s QB is Blaine Gabbert????

12) Over last three years, Pac-12 teams are 7-15 vs spread in bowl games.

11) Bowl records by conference, with one game left:

Conference USA: 4-2
SEC 6-5
Big Ten: 5-4
Big 12: 4-3
Mountain West: 3-2
Sun Belt: 3-2
Independents: 2-1
ACC: 5-5
Pac-12: 3-4
AAC: 2-5
MAC: 1-5

10) Central Michigan and Texas were only college football teams not to have at least one offensive play of 50+ yards this season.

9) Texas 28, Georgia 21? Before this game Tuesday night, Texas mascot Bevo went after UGa, the Georgia mascot down in the Superdome, and that aggression carried over into the game.

Hard to tell if Georgia let down because they didn?t make the 4-team playoff. Tom Herman?s career record vs spread as an underdog is now 9-2-1.

8) Trailblazers won in OT at Sacramento Tuesday night; Portland?s Jusuf Nurkić came the first player since steals and blocks first became official stats in 1973 to have 20+ points, 20+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 5+ steals and 5+ blocks in same game.

7) Oft-injured SS Troy Tulowitzki signed with the Bronx baseball team; they will pay him $600K next year while Toronto pays him $17.4M a year for two years to play against them.

6) Texas Tech 62, West Virginia 59? This was a truly awful game; teams played hard, but they combined to go 8-37 on the arc. WVU was 18-32 on foul line in a 3-point loss? had to be a brutal game to ref? very physical, ton of missed shots. West Virginia?s guards aren?t good.

5) Maryland 74, Nebraska 72? Cornhuskers came in as the ranked team, left with a loss.

4) Seton Hall 80, Xavier 70? Solid conference road win for the Pirates.

3) I?m guessing NFL teams generally dislike being on HBO?s Hard Knocks. Coaches hate distractions, and TV cameras are a pretty big distraction. Here are three ways teams can get out of being on Hard Knocks:

? They have a first-year head coach.
? They were in the playoffs in the last two seasons.
? They?ve been on Hard Knocks in any of the last ten years.

Taking those rules into account, only five teams can be forced into being HBO?s focus next summer: 49ers, Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Lions.

2) NFL TV ratings were up 5% this season, good news for the league.

1) Rough couple of days for people passing away, especially for 76-year olds:
? Tyler Trent, 20, the Purdue fan who was an inspiration to so many the last few months, passed away from bone cancer over the weekend.
? Wrestling announcer Gene Okerlund, 76, passed away after a lengthy illness.
? Daryl Dragon, 76, the captain in Captain and Tennille, passed away on Monday.
? One of the most underrated funny men ever, Bob Einstein, passed away at age 76. Einstein was a talented comedy writer- he was in Oceans 13 among other movies. His character Super Dave, a knock-off of Evil Knievel?s daredevil antics, made people laugh for years.

 

[Cnotes53]

WC - Colts at Texans
Kevin Rogers

The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday afternoon with an AFC South battle between the Colts and Texans from NRG Stadium in Houston. Both these teams struggled out of the gate, but rebounded as the division sends two teams to the playoffs for the second consecutive season after Jacksonville and Tennessee made it in 2017.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Colts (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) finally had a healthy Andrew Luck after the former top pick missed last season with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis fell into a 1-5 hole through six games, with the lone victory coming at Washington in Week 2 as six-point underdogs, 21-6. The Colts dropped their first two home games to the Bengals and Texans, while allowing at least 34 points in four of those defeats.

However, Frank Reich?s team would turn things around by picking up five consecutive wins to climb above the .500 mark, as the offense posted 27 points or more in each of those victories. After getting blanked at Jacksonville in Week 13 in a 6-0 setback, the Colts rebounded with four more wins to close out the season, including back-to-back victories over the Texans and Cowboys. Indianapolis clinched its first playoff berth since 2014 in a Week 17 winner-take-all triumph at Tennessee, 33-17 to finish 4-2 inside the AFC South.

The Texans (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) were a mess after three weeks, losing to the Patriots, Titans, and Giants to fall to 0-3. It looked like a long season for Houston, but the Texans ran of nine consecutive wins, including back-to-back overtime triumphs over the Colts and Cowboys to start the hot streak. During that winning streak, Houston limited opponents to 17 points or less six times, while picking up three double-digit home victories over Miami, Tennessee, and Cleveland.

Houston split its final four games, including losses by three points or less to Indianapolis and Philadelphia. The Texans wrapped up their third AFC South title in the last four seasons, while picking up the second-most wins in franchise history with 11 victories, coming one short of the 12-4 mark in 2012.

WHO TO WATCH

Luck threw for the second-most touchdowns in a season in his career (39), including an eight-game stretch in which he tossed at least three touchdowns. Running back Marlon Mack is coming off a career season by racking up 908 rushing yards in only 12 games, including a 139-yard effort against Dallas in the Week 15 home shutout. T.Y. Hilton is fighting an ankle injury, but the wide receiver eclipsed the 100-yard mark in each matchup against Houston, as he hauled in nine catches for 199 yards in the Week 14 triumph at Houston.

Deshaun Watson started all 16 games for Houston after missing the second half of 2017 with a torn ACL. The Texans? quarterback threw 26 touchdowns and was intercepted only nine times, while rushing for five scores. Lamar Miller finished 27 rushing yards short of his third career 1,000-yard rushing season, but was limited to 82 yards in two meetings against Indianapolis. DeAndre Hopkins pulled in a career-high 111 receptions for 1,572 yards, including three straight 100-yard games to close the season.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

Indianapolis finished 4-4 away from Lucas Oil Stadium, while the OVER cashed in four of those road affairs. The Colts managed a 3-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog, including outright victories at Washington and Houston.

The Texans won six of eight games at NRG Stadium, but covered in only four of those games. Houston began the season 0-3 ATS at home before posting a 4-1 ATS mark in its final five home contests. The UNDER hit in five of eight home games, including in two of three affairs with AFC South opponents.

SERIES HISTORY

These two rivals split a pair of three-point outcomes with the road team coming out on top each time. In Week 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Texans entered Indianapolis in must-win mode after starting 0-3. Houston jumped out to a commanding 28-10 third quarter lead highlighted by two Watson touchdown passes and a Watson touchdown scamper.

However, Luck led the Colts back on a 21-3 run to end regulation, highlighted by a touchdown catch by Nyheim Hines with 45 seconds remaining. Indianapolis struck first in overtime with an Adam Vinatieri field goal, but Houston tied it with a field goal, then picked up the rare second three-pointer in the extra session to edge the Colts, 37-34 to cash as one-point favorites and hit the OVER of 48 ?. Luck finished with 464 yards passing and four touchdowns, but Indianapolis rushed for 41 yards without Mack.

The Colts picked up revenge in the second matchup in Houston in Week 14 with a 24-21 victory as four-point underdogs. After Houston scored an early touchdown, Indianapolis struck back for 17 second quarter points, as the Colts led the rest of the way. Luck finished one yard shy of 400 yards passing as Indianapolis captured its fourth win at Houston in the last five visits.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

Indianapolis has reached the postseason for the fourth time in Luck?s career since 2012, as the Colts have won two of three times in the Wild Card round. Both victories came at home, as Indianapolis lost in its last road Wild Card affair at Baltimore in 2012 by a 24-9 score. For the fifth time since 2011, the Texans are in the playoffs, as Houston owns a 3-1 record at home in the Wild Card round. Houston and Indianapolis are meeting for the first time ever in the playoffs, while the Texans are facing a division foe in the postseason also for the first time.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER

Handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the initial Wild Card matchup, ?Both defenses were very effective against the run in this rivalry as in the two games combined the Colts rushed for a total of 91 yards on 40 carries just fewer than 2.3 yards per rush. Houston was only slightly better on the ground with 208 rushing yards vs. the Colts over 60 carries just fewer than 3.5 yards per rush. Houston finished first in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per rush on the season while only allowing eight rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts weren?t far behind finishing sixth in the NFL allowing 3.9 yards per rush.?

The quarterback play will be the difference in game, according to Nelson, ?Luck is 3-3 in playoff games in his career with two road wins and he is the more established passer. Watson has won on the big stage in college and was sixth in the NFL in QB Rating this season. Both quarterbacks had good numbers in the regular season meetings with just one interception each. Luck is more prone to interceptions but Watson takes a great deal of sacks and has had a high fumble count. Watson was sacked 12 times in the two games between these teams while Luck was sacked just six times.?

FUTURE ODDS

The Colts and Texans are both two of the biggest long shots to win Super Bowl LIII as each squad sits at 25/1 at BetOnline.ag. Indianapolis and Houston are each 10/1 to capture the AFC title, while the Texans have dropped from a 2 ?-point favorite to a one-point favorite at most spots with a total of 48.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
Chris David

Totals ended in a stalemate (8-8) in Week 17 and through 256 regular season games, the 'under' went 135-115-6 (54%).

Including the numbers from last Sunday, divisional games watched the 'under' go 52-43-1 on the season and we'll have at least one in this year's postseason as Indianapolis and Houston square off this wekeend.

Including Super Bowl 53 from Santa Clara, this year?s postseason will have three primetime games left with one night matchup scheduled on Saturday for both the Wild Card and Divisional Playoff Rounds. During the regular season, we didn't see a strong lean either way as the 'over' (26-25) held a slight edge and that includes a 2-0 'under' mark in the pair of games played on Saturday in Week 15 and 16.

Wild Card Trends

Looking at the below results, you can see that the opening week of the playoffs has leaned to the low side.

The 'under' went 3-1 last season and the low side is on a 17-6-1 (73.9%) run in the Wild Card round the past six postseasons. Going back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the 'under' is 35-20-1 (63%) overall in the first round.

Saturday, Jan. 5

For the playoffs, I?m going to break down every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Indianapolis at Houston (ESPN, 4:30 p.m. ET)

BookMaker opened this total at 47 and the number has been pushed up to 48 ? as of Thursday morning and a couple Las Vegas books have gone to 49. While it?s not rare to see a divisional matchup in the Wild Card round, it doesn?t happen often. Going back to 2004, there have been 10 instances and the ?under? has gone 5-4-1 in those contests.

This series has watched the ?under? go 4-1 in the last five games between the pair and that includes a 1-1 mark this season. The visitor won both games this regular season and the first encounter from Indianapolis could?ve and probably should?ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime on his side of the field and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. The rematch in Houston watched the Colts avenge that loss with a 24-21 win in Week 14.

Indianapolis outgained Houston in total yards (436-315) in the road win and they also put up more yards (478-466) at home in the Week 4 setback. Looking at the numbers and the eyeball test, it?s clear that the Colts have the better quarterback on the field in Andrew Luck. It?s also clear that the Texans QB Deshaun Watson has taken a beating from Indy, getting sacked 12 times in the two meetings this season.

Watson will be making his first playoff start on Saturday, fortunately for him it?s at home. Luck owns a 3-3 all-time record in the playoffs and he?s 1-3 on the road, with the lone upset coming in 2014 at Denver (24-13). In four road postseason starts, the Colts have been held to 15.5 points per game and the ?under? has gone 3-1 in those contests.

Houston (15.3 PPG) has been very solid defensively at home, and that?s produced a 5-3 ?under? mark at NRG Stadium. The franchise has gone 3-4 all-time in the playoffs, 3-1 at home. In those four home games, we?ve seen averaged combined score of 36 PPG.

Fearless Prediction: This is the highest total on the board and while I would slightly lean to the ?over? in this matchup, I don?t have much confidence in the Texans offense. The unit is ranked 28th in red zone touchdown percentage and 20th in third down conversion percentage. I think Watson is a decent QB but far from ?special? and nowhere close to Luck. The Colts are first in 3rd down conversions and ranked fifth in red zones TDs. In five trips to Houston, Indy has averaged 24.8 PPG with Luck under center. I?ll ride that trend and play the Colts Team Total Over (24) here.


Seattle at Dallas (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Although not a divisional game, the primetime contest on Saturday is also a rematch from this year?s regular season and the early action is buying the high side. BookMaker sent out 41 ? and the numbers is up to 43 as of Thursday. The pair met in Week 3 from Seattle and the Seahawks captured a 24-13 win over the Cowboys and the ?under? (40) was in control for most of the game.

The game was scoreless after the first quarter before Seattle built a 17-3 lead at halftime. Neither the Seahawks (295 yards) or Cowboys (303 yards) could do much offensively and Dallas certainly didn?t help its cause with three turnovers.

A lot has changed since that meeting and that?s part of the reason the total has been pushed up for the second encounter. In the second-half of the season, Seattle found its groove offensively (30 PPG) behind the top-ranked rushing offense (160 YPG) and that production helped the ?over? go 7-1.

Dallas hasn?t been as potent offensively, but we?ve seen some sparks from the club since it acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from Oakland. The Cowboys averaged 22.1 PPG with him in the lineup and that led to a 7-2 record. Without, the unit averaged 18.3 PPG and went 3-4. We?ve definitely seen some clunkers from the Dallas offense this season, in particular a recent shutout loss at Indianapolis in Week 15.

QB Dak Prescott takes a lot of criticism in Dallas and deservingly but the key to the offense is running back Ezekiel Elliot. The club is 6-1 this season when he gets 20-plus carries and the lone loss came by three points in overtime. In those games, the ?Boys have averaged 25.3 PPG and the ?over? went 5-2.

Defensively, the Cowboys own the better defense on paper (329 YPG, 20.2 PPG) but their current form is a tad alarming. While I won?t put too much stock into the meaningless shootout at the Giants last week, it should be noted that Dallas has allowed 26 PPG and 398 YPG in its last three games overall.

Prescott has only played in one postseason game and he was productive (302 yards, 3 TDs) but Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay proved to be too much in their 34-31 win in the 2016-17 Divisional Playoff matchup.

While Dak lacks playoff experience, the same can?t be said for Seattle QB Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are 8-4 in the playoffs with him under center which includes a respectable 3-2 mark on the road. The ?over? has gone 7-5 in those games while Seattle has averaged 25.3 PPG.

Fearless Prediction: This isn?t an easy game to handicap but I?d lean to Dallas based on its strong home tendencies and Seattle has been a bully this season, just 2-4 versus playoff teams and both wins came at home. For the total I?m leaning to the Over (43) in the game and I also believe Dallas will get at least five scores in this game, hopefully more sixes instead of threes. I?ll play the Cowboys Team Total Over (22 ?) as well.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David

Sunday?s betting festivities kick off early at 1:00 p.m. ET as the Ravens and Chargers will meet in a quick rematch, this time the venue will be a tad cooler in Baltimore than the friendly temperatures of Los Angeles. The last Wild Card matchup of the weekend is set for 4:40 p.m. ET as the Bears make their first playoff appearance since 2010 while the Eagles have their eyes set on repeating as Super Bowl champions.

As mentioned in Saturday?s piece, the ?under? has gone 17-6-1 (73.9%) in the Wild Card round the last six seasons.

For the playoffs, I?m going to break down every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Sunday, Jan. 6

L.A. Chargers at Baltimore (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Ravens defeated the Chargers 22-10 in Week 16 as four-point road underdogs in a primetime game played on a Saturday from Los Angeles and the ?under? (42 ?) cashed easily. And if it wasn?t for a pair of 60-plus yard touchdowns by Baltimore, one from its defense, the final score would?ve been much lower.

BookMaker opened the rematch (41 ?) a tad lower and its been pushed down to 41 but most other shops are still holding 41 ? as of Thursday.

While Baltimore was fortunate to connect on two big plays in the first meeting, it clearly dominated the game in yardage (361-198) and it won the turnover battle (3-1) as well with the last mistake putting the game away in the fourth quarter. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was sacked four times, picked off twice and only completed 23-of-37 attempts for 181 yards.

Outside of the long touchdown pass, Ravens rookie QB Lamar Jackson wasn?t sharp from the pocket (12-of-22) but he contributed with 39 of Baltimore?s 159 rushing yards. Since Jackson took over for Joe Flacco as the starting QB in Week 11, the Ravens are averaging 229 yards per game on the ground and the team is averaging 25.1 points per game. That production has led to a 4-3 ?over? mark and the Ravens defense (17.9) has done its best to keep those ?under? tickets cashing.

After losing at home to Baltimore, the Chargers finished the season with a lackluster 23-9 win at Denver and Rivers was far from sharp. He was picked off twice and only completed 14-of-24 (58%) of his passes against a Broncos secondary that featured more backups than starters. Rivers closed the season with two interceptions in each of his final three games. Which Rivers will show up on Sunday? I wish I knew but how you answer that question will obviously play heavily into your wager.

Make a note that Los Angeles was tied with New Orleans with the best road mark in the NFL this season at 7-1 and it?s arguably 8-1 since it beat Tennessee from London in Week 7. Including that results, the ?over? went 5-4 in games outside of L.A. for the club and they did score more on the road (26.9 PPG).

Some pundits believe that travel could play a factor for L.A. and it?s certainly not an easy trip. However, the Chargers went 3-0 in three games played in the Eastern Time Zone this season (Bills, Browns, Steelers) and they averaged 34 PPG in those wins. The ?over? went 3-0.

Prior to the recent encounter on Dec. 22, the pair split two regular season games from Baltimore in 2014 and 2015 and the outcomes were decided by a combined four points (29-26, 34-33).

As mentioned above, both clubs haven?t been in the playoffs in a few years but Baltimore?s 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS postseason record under head coach John Harbaugh is very impressive and only two of those games were at home. The totals were a wash (7-7-1) in those contests but in the lone pair from Maryland, the ?under? cashed easily in both as the Ravens allowed 11 PPG in the victories.

The Chargers have gone 4-5 in the playoffs under Rivers but he?s 3-0 in the Wild Card round and the ?under? has gone 3-0 in those games.

Fearless Prediction: While the Chargers have put up some crooked numbers on the road, this Ravens defense is legit and I can see them making a run similar to what San Francisco did in 2012 when they handed the ball over from veteran QB Alex Smith to the upstart Colin Kaepernick. Coincidentally, that team was run by Harbaugh?s brother Jim. For those that put stock into playoff trends, make a note that the first game (1:05 p.m. ET) on Sunday in the Wild Card round has watched the ?under? cash the last eight years. I?m going to ride the Under (41 ?) for the game and expect another grinder, this time on the East Coast.


Philadelphia at Chicago (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card matchups, this one is expected to be the most lopsided with the Bears listed as six-point favorites over the Eagles. The total (41) could likely be the lowest as well and as of Thursday evening, the number has held steady since it opened.

The best unit on the field will be the Bears defense, which is ranked first in scoring (17.7 PPG) and third in total yards (299.7) allowed. The group also led the league with 36 turnovers, which included a league-high 27 interceptions and nine fumbles. They were tied for third in sacks (50) and all of that production led to six defensive touchdowns.

Despite that domination, the Bears saw their total results (8-8) break even this season but it did close the season with four straight winning tickets to the ?under? and both the defense (10.5 PPG) and lack of offense (19.3 PPG) helped that cause.

Chicago?s offense remains a mystery but I believe what we?ve seen in the last quarter is what the unit is and not the one that posted 28.6 PPG in its first 12 games. The benefit of extra possessions and great field position from the defense helped the offense a lot and the numbers prove that. The unit was ranked 21st in total offense (343.9 YPG) yet they managed to convert well on third downs and in the red zone, which led to plenty of points. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky isn?t going to dice up any secondary but he?s efficient and makes a lot happen with his legs.

The Eagles defense (23 PPG) hasn?t been as strong on the road and the ?over? went 5-3 in those games, with one of the ?under? tickets taking place from London in a 24-18 win over Jacksonville in Week 8. The unit did shutout the short-handed Redskins 24-0 last Sunday in D.C. but they allowed 33.3 PPG in their three previous away games, all coming to playoff teams too (Saints, Cowboys, Rams).

The X-factor for this total and the game comes down to Eagles QB Nick Foles, who?s up to his old tricks again. Since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz in Week 15, the Birds closed the season with three straight wins and the offense posted 28.6 PPG in the wins. As a starter in second stop for Philadelphia, Foles has gone 9-2 and that includes a 3-0 playoff mark last year.

Are we going to witness another Foles run this January? The ?over? went 2-1 for the Eagles in last year?s championship push and he was fortunate to have the Birds defense step up at home (8.5 PPG) against the Falcons and Vikings. In the Super Bowl, he played outplayed QB Tom Brady and the Patriots for the 41-33 win.

Fearless Prediction: The ?under? on this game is the most popular total wager of the weekend and it?s hard to argue against it based on the form for the Bears. They enter this game on a 4-0 ?under? run and they?ve also covered all four of those games too. My lean on the side is to Philadelphia and when the Bears lose, only four times, they?ve allowed 30.1 PPG and the ?over? went 4-0. My lean for the late game is Over (41) and the Eagles Team Total Over (17 ?) as well.