NBA SAT 032109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

I'm intending to parlay it, to be honest - there's really going to HELL to pay if Manchester United drops 2 games - everyone knows Ferguson is the BOSS and no one wants to be in his doghouse 'cause of the repercussions. As in being dropped from the team altogether or being sold off once the season's ended.

Parlay this and the CAV ML? Worth it?

 

[axp59]

I certainly don't have the "eye" so...don't really want to express any opinions or leans.
I can, however, provide numbers pertaining to percentages and line movements.

NY opened at 215
still 215 across the board but
currently 214.5 at pinnacle

I love it when you have "christmas" and "birthday" in your sentences.

Thanks Flippa, I don't know what it is that attracts me to this under so much! Damn...I'm thinking 1/3U and buy it back tomorrow if I need to or lock it in full if I come up with some answers.

 

[easterntimezone]

Excellent analysis as always ETZ. Got both sides covered. How are the Knicks against perimeter shooters compared to the league? How has other 3 pt teams fared against them?
Here's my answer to those. I project that ORL points coming off 3pts will even be higher than they average in any given game. The odd thing is...I project that their 3pt% will be lower than normal. This means yes, they'll be throwing up the 3's. They may be scoring more with it but efficiency suffers. What does this mean?

If Proguy is correct and ORL blows out NY early, are we looking at major scrub time? How does this game turn if it comes down to bench vs. bench in 4Q?

Should we take this game off the list and focus on something else?

I can remember 2 outright wax jobs the Magic have executed this season; 1 was the massive hammering of the Hawks way before Atlanta caught fire, the other was against Indiana... Nelson was still active then so it may not be a valid assessment given Alston's presence in his absence.

If I can recall correctly, Anthony Johnson and Redick were both looking for theirs ad infinitum - Battie did what he does which is yeoman-like; if this is yet another beatdown, probably looking at Johnson, Redick, Petrius, Gortat, Battie and Lue out there on the court - you'd have to assess how selfish these players are given the circumstance and the 1st 3 definitely would qualify.

Also note that the Magic have invited bad blood given their propensity to shoot 3s LONG after a contest has been decided in their favor; Denver and Billups used that as motivation when they went to Florida and led from beginning to end.

 

[easterntimezone]

Parlay this and the CAV ML? Worth it?

May very well be and one I'll definitely be considering - I suspect a lot of people will be riding that Hawks bandwagon given their success of 7 wins straight; I don't think that LeBron et al want to surrender as much of home court advantage as possible, let alone incur a 2nd loss at home this season.

 

[axp59]

There are times in a mans life when you have to trust you heart more than your head

1/3U play will buy back or play full tomorrow

NBA [506] TOTAL u215-110
(NEW YORK vrs ORLANDO)

 

[PickNPop]

I'm intending to parlay it, to be honest - there's really going to HELL to pay if Manchester United drops 2 games - everyone knows Ferguson is the BOSS and no one wants to be in his doghouse 'cause of the repercussions. As in being dropped from the team altogether or being sold off once the season's ended.

You follow EPL too, etz? Who is your team?

I agree that ManU should bounce back but I have been burned before earlier in the season in this siuation. Although they do say ManU doesn't really start playing until the leaves fall...


As for the NY-ORL game, another angle to consider is that Howard had a season low in FGA in the game against CLE and they made it an effort to go to him the next night in MIL. Since no one on the Knicks can guard him, maybe this carries over?

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

Thanks Flippa, I don't know what it is that attracts me to this under so much! Damn...I'm thinking 1/3U and buy it back tomorrow if I need to or lock it in full if I come up with some answers.

I think that's a good idea. i'm gonna buy some now too, and see how it fairs tomorrow.

pinnacle and 5dimes are at 214.5

 

[axp59]

I can remember 2 outright wax jobs the Magic have executed this season; 1 was the massive hammering of the Hawks way before Atlanta caught fire, the other was against Indiana... Nelson was still active then so it may not be a valid assessment given Alston's presence in his absence.

If I can recall correctly, Anthony Johnson and Redick were both looking for theirs ad infinitum - Battie did what he does which is yeoman-like; if this is yet another beatdown, probably looking at Johnson, Redick, Petrius, Gortat, Battie and Lue out there on the court - you'd have to assess how selfish these players are given the circumstance and the 1st 3 definitely would qualify.

Also note that the Magic have invited bad blood given their propensity to shoot 3s LONG after a contest has been decided in their favor; Denver and Billups used that as motivation when they went to Florida and led from beginning to end.

ETZ, love you on this thread! I don't analyze the 'game' like you do. I see numbers and figures and shapes and colors. You actually see a game. I can respect that! Thank you.

 

[axp59]

May very well be and one I'll definitely be considering - I suspect a lot of people will be riding that Hawks bandwagon given their success of 7 wins straight; I don't think that LeBron et al want to surrender as much of home court advantage as possible, let alone incur a 2nd loss at home this season.

Let me know if this is your play ETZ, I will tail 1/20U. thanks

 

[axp59]

they made it an effort to go to him . Since no one on the Knicks can guard him.

PnP, I'd rather they go underneath that shoot those damn 3's. Well, I'm locked 1/3U. Pray for me.

 

[proguy747]

magic have had +13 lead in the first half the last two home games. They are +9 at half for the last nine games. 1st half play for me.

 

[axp59]

I think that's a good idea. i'm gonna buy some now too, and see how it fairs tomorrow.

pinnacle and 5dimes are at 214.5

I did the same Flippa, I honestly believe there's value...here's the real reason...capping this with 5 possession cushion at maximum value. If I was a tout, this is the....hell I don't know, I'm not a tout. I just think this number is off.

 

[axp59]

magic have had +13 lead in the first half the last two home games. They are +9 at half for the last nine games. 1st half play for me.

locked in 1H proguy? can you share your line?

 

[easterntimezone]

You follow EPL too, etz? Who is your team?

I agree that ManU should bounce back but I have been burned before earlier in the season in this siuation. Although they do say ManU doesn't really start playing until the leaves fall...


As for the NY-ORL game, another angle to consider is that Howard had a season low in FGA in the game against CLE and they made it an effort to go to him the next night in MIL. Since no one on the Knicks can guard him, maybe this carries over?

Partial to the Reds and Arsenal (for their style of play although I find Wenger to be prissy in defeat and Bendtner a disaster waiting to happen - hoping that the return of Eduardo as well as Walcott and eventually Fabregas will ensure they remain in the top 4 as I'd like to see when they mature how they do (and there's a real danger that some senior players may leave if they're not playing Champions League and having to settle for UEFA Cup); I also do like when Moyes has done w/ Everton in his time there w/ few resources - and although his name isn't bandied about as much, he may very well be the best candidate to succeed Sir Alex once he FINALLY retires...

Think O'Neil's done a great job w/ Villa, but he seems too wedded to his starting 11 - much like D'Antoni, they're beginning to exhibit some erosion (if you count the UEFA Cup campaign, I think Villa's been playing since late July/early August)...

What about yourself PNP - which teams do you support?

As for this game, Ferguson doesn't want to throw away the Premiership and Champions League most of all - I think he'd like to win all 4 this season, but the FA Cup is the least of his concerns - and beating Roy Hodges and Fulham tomorrow will initiate remedying what happened to them against Benitez, Torres, Gerrard, etc. Evans is set to replace Vidic b/c of his ban so I don't think there'll be a huge drop off - the question is whether or not Ferdinand won't be as half-assed this time around (Vidic's tug on Gerrard was b/c Ferdinand failed to cover for him and was 15 or so yards away).

 

[proguy747]

not locked in the half lines do not come in until tom.

 

[easterntimezone]

PnP, I'd rather they go underneath that shoot those damn 3's. Well, I'm locked 1/3U. Pray for me.

I'm gonna go w/ this as well Ax - people sometimes think tired legs leads to easy baskets, but having to exert energy to do score may not be as attractive if you're spent...

 

[axp59]

not locked in the half lines do not come in until tom.

Now you know I'm telling the truth when I say I don't play 1H. I'm tailing you on this for 1/20U tomorrow. Thanks

 

[proguy747]

pressure is on now. Uh oh

 

[axp59]

I'm gonna go w/ this as well Ax - people sometimes think tired legs leads to easy baskets, but having to exert energy to do score may not be as attractive if you're spent...

very good etz

 

[PickNPop]

ORL has also been doing well 1Q too IIRC. I think Value posted a thread on that a while back. But 1Q -4 would scare the heck out of me.