NBA SAT 032109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

axp59

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Tell me why I shouldn't play the over in this game? I want to hear it all. Ax, are you crazy? You're talking about two defensive minded teams and so on and so on...

Atlanta at Cleveland @185

I think it warrants further investigation that's all.
 

axp59

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Talk about an out of whack number...it must be my birthday or it's Christmas because the gambling god has place a gift in my hands for the second straight night. Is anyone else seeing this as misplaced?

New York at Orlando U215

I'm not locked in yet but thought I would hype it up because it looks good! :)
 

proguy747

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Hi AX good to see you. Been busy with work and have not had the energy to cap games lately. Tailed you tonight and want to thank you. I am ready to get back to work will post in a little bit.
 

compita_luigi

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bro

bro

atlanta and clev .. both teams at home play well deff.. lately clev with the top deff.. has been playing overs.. but vs. atl and at home.. this could have some value on the under..
 

axp59

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Hi AX good to see you. Been busy with work and have not had the energy to cap games lately. Tailed you tonight and want to thank you. I am ready to get back to work will post in a little bit.

happy you cashed pal...that's all that matters but thanks for showing your appreciation. You're a class act!
 

axp59

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atlanta and clev .. both teams at home play well deff.. lately clev with the top deff.. has been playing overs.. but vs. atl and at home.. this could have some value on the under..

Nice bro...I have my reasons obviously for picking the over on this one. I will probably drop this game from my list anyway since some value is starting to show up on the board.

I know all about the defensive makeup of both teams, there's a little something I have my eye on and if this pans out, I will certainly share my cap notes. I know the public is thinking exactly what you're thinking. Please don't take offense to that. I'm just saying that's what you will see first when you see that number. I see something else. Let me dig a little deeper and if this a viable play, I will share!

Thanks for the input sir. I do appreciate it.
 

easterntimezone

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Cleveland's recent games have been low scoring not only b/c of their defense, but also b/c of their paltry offensive output - do think that even tho' their contributions may not show up in what everyone gravitates to in a boxscore, Wallace and Wally are sorely missed in how they run their sets/etc. Relying on the likes of Hickson and Jackson just isn't the same...
 
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axp59

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There's something I don't like about the NY/ORL game. The trending doesn't look good but we know how that can be made to look like anything. I need some input from the situational cappers in here. I know you guys are out there, I read your stuff everyday. Give me why this goes over or under or why this is a NO play. If I were sure about this, you know I would have locked it in already.

My take from statistical modeling. NY is a consistent team where you know you'll get over 100 from them vs. the average NBA team and they will give up 100+ against same. Of course they give up more than they score because that's how bad teams are. ORL on the other hand will also give you that century mark output but they don't nearly give up as many points. They tighten up a good 3-4 points at home on the average. Gotta keep in mind that the league average now is about a hair below 100.
Here's what sells me. ORL has been really focusing on the D. The offense is there but man, the D has really picked up for this stretch run. We all know that defense wins championships and when playoff time comes around, your defense better be playing the best it has all year. ORL knows this. I think they clamp it down at home.
I really need a situational capper to take a look at this game
 

axp59

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Cleveland's recent games have been low scoring not only b/c of their defense, but also b/c of their paltry offensive output - do think that even tho' their contributions may not show up in what everyone gravitates to in a boxscore, Wallace and Wally are sorely missed in how they run their sets/etc. Relying on the likes of Hickson and Jackson just isn't the same...

excellent ETZ, that's a very valid point!
 

proguy747

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AX at first glance the knicks game look like an over. As I dig deeper there is a trend that the knicks scoring is struggling along with the orlando d that is clamping down. I have been watching magic lately and noticed that they are killing everybody in the first half Biggg time. So much that the POD should be the magic first half. Only the nets have scored over a 100 points in the last month against the magic at home. more to come. Nobody has a better nose for smelling out a game right away then you.
 

easterntimezone

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There's something I don't like about the NY/ORL game. The trending doesn't look good but we know how that can be made to look like anything. I need some input from the situational cappers in here. I know you guys are out there, I read your stuff everyday. Give me why this goes over or under or why this is a NO play. If I were sure about this, you know I would have locked it in already.

My take from statistical modeling. NY is a consistent team where you know you'll get over 100 from them vs. the average NBA team and they will give up 100+ against same. Of course they give up more than they score because that's how bad teams are. ORL on the other hand will also give you that century mark output but they don't nearly give up as many points. They tighten up a good 3-4 points at home on the average. Gotta keep in mind that the league average now is about a hair below 100.
Here's what sells me. ORL has been really focusing on the D. The offense is there but man, the D has really picked up for this stretch run. We all know that defense wins championships and when playoff time comes around, your defense better be playing the best it has all year. ORL knows this. I think they clamp it down at home.
I really need a situational capper to take a look at this game

Having watched the Knicks roll over and lie down for both the Nets and the Kings (as an observer w/ nothing wagered), they really are beginning to look like a team that's figured out that the playoffs are a pipe dream; MSG's Walt Frazier's commented in both games how Nate Robinson doesn't have the bounce in his step and isn't providing that boost of energy he was during his hot run (shots aren't falling, etc.) when he comes off the bench - don't know if it's personal or if he's just gassed. D'Antoni's been playing w/ a short rotation all year - regardless of their conditioning, this may be where that 7 seconds or less arrangement has finally caught up w/ his players and they're no longer as focused, as fit, etc. as they were to start the campaign - the 1st warning sign was when Duhon had to sit out a couple of games b/c of a sore back/back spasms.

What concerns me most about Orlando is their addiction to the 3 pointer; if it's falling, great - if not, well, easy to collapse on the interior and Howard given that they really don't have players who possess reliable in b/w games... Their defense definitely has gotten better, but do still think that Alston and Terkoglu are liabilities at that end, over reliant on the shotblocking ability of Howard to compensate for their deficiencies.
 

axp59

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AX at first glance the knicks game look like an over. As I dig deeper there is a trend that the knicks scoring is struggling along with the orlando d that is clamping down. I have been watching magic lately and noticed that they are killing everybody in the first half Biggg time. So much that the POD should be the magic first half. Only the nets have scored over a 100 points in the last month against the magic at home. more to come. Nobody has a better nose for smelling out a game right away then you.

Thanks for this PG...Man, I'm dying to find out what else you have on this. I'm still trending myself and trying to run this thing against as many situations as possible.

I will look into the 1H possibility. Sounds yummy...
 

proguy747

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The magic at home with two days rest have gone 18 out of the last 20 games under 210.
 

easterntimezone

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If anyone's interested, Fulham visits Manchester United @ Old Trafford - Man U just came off a 4-1 drubbing at home to primary rivals Liverpool. Unlike the self-styled zen master Phil Jackson, Sir Alex Ferguson will have gotten his message across loud and clear to his (Manchester United) Red Devils squad - as always, no guarantees nor locks, but the ML has a very high likelihood, not sure about the spread tho'...

Cap both the NBA and the English Premiership; haven't followed MLB since Olerud was playing for the Blue Jays so I'm gonna be leaning on your expertise there Ax if you don't mind.
 

easterntimezone

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I have man -240? is that to much juice?

I'm intending to parlay it, to be honest - there's really going to HELL to pay if Manchester United drops 2 games - everyone knows Ferguson is the BOSS and no one wants to be in his doghouse 'cause of the repercussions. As in being dropped from the team altogether or being sold off once the season's ended.
 

Flippa2HeadCoin

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Talk about an out of whack number...it must be my birthday or it's Christmas because the gambling god has place a gift in my hands for the second straight night. Is anyone else seeing this as misplaced?

New York at Orlando U215

I'm not locked in yet but thought I would hype it up because it looks good! :)

I certainly don't have the "eye" so...don't really want to express any opinions or leans.
I can, however, provide numbers pertaining to percentages and line movements.

NY opened at 215
still 215 across the board but
currently 214.5 at pinnacle

I love it when you have "christmas" and "birthday" in your sentences.
 

axp59

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Oct 8, 2008
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Having watched the Knicks roll over and lie down for both the Nets and the Kings (as an observer w/ nothing wagered), they really are beginning to look like a team that's figured out that the playoffs are a pipe dream; MSG's Walt Frazier's commented in both games how Nate Robinson doesn't have the bounce in his step and isn't providing that boost of energy he was during his hot run (shots aren't falling, etc.) when he comes off the bench - don't know if it's personal or if he's just gassed. D'Antoni's been playing w/ a short rotation all year - regardless of their conditioning, this may be where that 7 seconds or less arrangement has finally caught up w/ his players and they're no longer as focused, as fit, etc. as they were to start the campaign - the 1st warning sign was when Duhon had to sit out a couple of games b/c of a sore back/back spasms.

What concerns me most about Orlando is their addiction to the 3 pointer; if it's falling, great - if not, well, easy to collapse on the interior and Howard given that they really don't have players who possess reliable in b/w games... Their defense definitely has gotten better, but do still think that Alston and Terkoglu are liabilities at that end, over reliant on the shotblocking ability of Howard to compensate for their deficiencies.
Excellent analysis as always ETZ. Got both sides covered. How are the Knicks against perimeter shooters compared to the league? How has other 3 pt teams fared against them?
Here's my answer to those. I project that ORL points coming off 3pts will even be higher than they average in any given game. The odd thing is...I project that their 3pt% will be lower than normal. This means yes, they'll be throwing up the 3's. They may be scoring more with it but efficiency suffers. What does this mean?

If Proguy is correct and ORL blows out NY early, are we looking at major scrub time? How does this game turn if it comes down to bench vs. bench in 4Q?

Should we take this game off the list and focus on something else?
 

axp59

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If anyone's interested, Fulham visits Manchester United @ Old Trafford - Man U just came off a 4-1 drubbing at home to primary rivals Liverpool. Unlike the self-styled zen master Phil Jackson, Sir Alex Ferguson will have gotten his message across loud and clear to his (Manchester United) Red Devils squad - as always, no guarantees nor locks, but the ML has a very high likelihood, not sure about the spread tho'...

Cap both the NBA and the English Premiership; haven't followed MLB since Olerud was playing for the Blue Jays so I'm gonna be leaning on your expertise there Ax if you don't mind.


Not at all ETZ...I love MLB and I think we can make even more money!!!

you should also hit up VegasAce for some inside info on English Premier...He has a solid source for this stuff...
 
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