NBA SAT 032809 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

axp59

axp59

Jarhead
Forum Member
Oct 8, 2008
3,012
0
0
Taxachusetts
Been thinking way too much this week

locked this in already and not going to look back :00x11

Memphis at Portland U193

I'm down over 3 big this week so going with this overnighter. GL.

Also like

New York at Charlotte U207 :hitit:
 
axp59

axp59

Jarhead
Forum Member
Oct 8, 2008
3,012
0
0
Taxachusetts
Pay close attention to his one

L.A. Clippers at Houston

if this comes out 200+ it may be a very solid option
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
375
0
0
Pacers/Bulls
Current line - Bulls: -8
Chicago finally beginning to integrate the different pieces of its team - Salmons and Miller knowing offensive and defensive playbook. Rose continuing his development as a point. Gordon still reliable w/ his outside jumper - Noah and Thomas also asserting themselves inside either rebounding or blocking shots. In the 8th and final playoff position in the East.
Pacers - not going to the playoffs; have played well in spurts now and again, especially at home, handing Miami, Boston, Los Angeles, Cleveland defeats - point guard dispute b/w Jack and Ford now apparently settled in favor of Jack. Murphy becoming a deadly long distance shooter on a staggered break although this does tend to wear him down come the late 3rd and all of the 4th. Granger just coming back from knee issues (that have plagued him ever since he was a draft candidate).

At home, Indiana barely beats Miami before Miami goes to Chicago to get destroyed.

Chicago an easy -8? Why does the Pacers +8 look more attractive? Pacers can just play out the string at this point - no postseason plans other than where to go on vacation.

Would they take some comfort in even temporarily derailing Chicago's playoff hopes while Charlotte nips at the Bulls' heels?

Not locked in, but giving consideration to the Pacers +8 - similar 'gut' instinct to Denver tonight.
 
J

jim844

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 21, 2009
40
0
0
easterntimezone said:
Pacers/Bulls
Current line - Bulls: -8
Chicago finally beginning to integrate the different pieces of its team - Salmons and Miller knowing offensive and defensive playbook. Rose continuing his development as a point. Gordon still reliable w/ his outside jumper - Noah and Thomas also asserting themselves inside either rebounding or blocking shots. In the 8th and final playoff position in the East.
Pacers - not going to the playoffs; have played well in spurts now and again, especially at home, handing Miami, Boston, Los Angeles, Cleveland defeats - point guard dispute b/w Jack and Ford now apparently settled in favor of Jack. Murphy becoming a deadly long distance shooter on a staggered break although this does tend to wear him down come the late 3rd and all of the 4th. Granger just coming back from knee issues (that have plagued him ever since he was a draft candidate).

At home, Indiana barely beats Miami before Miami goes to Chicago to get destroyed.

Chicago an easy -8? Why does the Pacers +8 look more attractive? Pacers can just play out the string at this point - no postseason plans other than where to go on vacation.

Would they take some comfort in even temporarily derailing Chicago's playoff hopes while Charlotte nips at the Bulls' heels?

Not locked in, but giving consideration to the Pacers +8 - similar 'gut' instinct to Denver tonight.
Click to expand...

:iagree:
but already locked in at +8
BOL
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
375
0
0
jim844 said:
:iagree:
but already locked in at +8
BOL
Click to expand...

J -

Likewise.

What agitates about this game is that superficially, people will say 'But it was Miami and Dwayne Wade and look at what he's DONE this season and the Bulls BURIED them' - and then if you explore further, you'll know that Wade single-handedly beat the Bulls in Miami in that 3 OT game and he was the decoy while Marion dropped a basket in the closing seconds when the Heat were last in Chicago. Revenge factor x 2.

If you also examine Wade's numbers since his hot run, it looks like all of the heavy lifting he did for the Heat in carrying them is showing up in a more sluggish performance more often than not - was he pivotal against Detroit when they beat the Pistons? Yes, but against an undermanned Detroit team that had overachieved and begun its descent to reality.

Wade is tired... Fatigued... And w/ so little time b/w now and the playoffs, he may be conserving energy - people have been expecting him to explode in the middle of a game to take the Heat to victory, but it hasn't happened in consecutive games in Indiana and Chicago. So as a barometer of how well Chicago is rounding into form, Miami w/ an overworked and spent Wade may not be the best litmus test to derive an accurate conclusion as to where Chicago is at vis-a-vis above average teams.

So Chicago looks overly inviting at a high single digit spread against an out-of-contention Pacers team. Say it ain't so...
 
Last edited:
C

chrisb02us

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 21, 2009
49
0
0
Cleveland, OH
axp59 said:
Been thinking way too much this week

locked this in already and not going to look back :00x11

Memphis at Portland U193

I'm down over 3 big this week so going with this overnighter. GL.

Also like

New York at Charlotte U207 :hitit:
Click to expand...
Ax,
I am checking out that Mem/Por game now, and will give some feedback in a bit. Did you see my write up on the Kan/Msu game in the Friday thread? If not, check out my predicted score. I guess I was off a bit.
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
375
0
0
Philip_Rivers said:
That guy Prof across street thinks this is a huge play. His system is 27-0 or something like that. I've been tracking him...seems legit. What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Have to be frank, don't rely rely on a system per se, but more on what the situation avails. And signs point to lavish public love and praise over the Bulls - w/ their resounding victory over the Heat, people will be tripping over themselves to fork over their hard earned ducats for a Bulls cover.

Pacers are awful on the road - ATS - they haven't accomplished much and are in flux; certain issues w/ the team will have to be resolved come the off season. They have though covered away against Portland and Utah, 2 of the tougher home team advantage arenas in the league. Wouldn't consider Chicago a fortress in that same breath.

Final thought - either an outright blowout by the Bulls or a very tight contest b/w the Bulls and Pacers.

Just a guess is all.
 
C

chrisb02us

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 21, 2009
49
0
0
Cleveland, OH
Mem/Por under 193

Mem/Por under 193

Looking at the last 2 games these teams played each other, I don't know how you could pick anything but an under in this spot. On 3/16/09, Portland took Memphis down in Memphis by a score of 103-92 totaling 195. Nothing out of the ordinary in that game as each eam had 5 players with dd scoring. The total in that game was 188.5. Now go back to the previous meeting between these 2 in Portland on 2/18/09, Portland pulled out the win 94-90, and the total there was set at 193.5. IMHO, I see history repeating itself in this spot, as Memphis is still playing in Sacramento as I type this up, and trust me, they will be tired. Portland is coming off an impressive wi at home against the Suns, and should continue tomorrow by locking down Mayo and Conley. The under 193 it is, and I am locked and loaded.

I'll work on the 2 college games in the morning.
 
M

mpnyc76

Registered
Forum Member
Mar 24, 2009
102
0
0
axp59 said:
I'm serious fade material right now. Just for kicks, i'm going to dig up an old system and throw out a side and total sys play.
Click to expand...

in addition to the other plays you are playing?
what made you shelf the system? losses?
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
375
0
0
axp59 said:
Sure you don't want to fade this play bro? :mj07:
Click to expand...

Ax -

Would you happen to know what the line was for the side these last 2 teams met in Portland; pretty sure it was a double digit number and Memphis covered as they are apt to do...

Thanks.
 
C

chrisb02us

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 21, 2009
49
0
0
Cleveland, OH
axp59 said:
Sure you don't want to fade this play bro? :mj07:
Click to expand...
Not a chance man. Stay the course, and the ship will right itself.

A lot of my plays are based on previous matchups, and I really think that tomorrow will be the same as their last meeting in Portland. Going on a limb here, but I'll predict Portland 91 Memphis 86. Lets see if I can hit one on the head.
 
S

Slicer

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
498
0
0
North Carolina
Keep up your head bro, after the amazing success of this year, a small derailment of 1 week is rolling with the punches.

I think that both plays you put out there are good material for Saturday, keep plugging.

How bout dem HEELS!! :00hour
 
S

Slicer

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
498
0
0
North Carolina
BTW Accuscore shit the bed on totals tonight, but it has absolutely been bringing down the house on ATS Sides the past week.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top