Betting Recap - Week 10
Dan Dobish
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Washington +9.5 (ML +340) vs. Buccaneers, 29-19
Dolphins +8.5 (ML +325) vs. Ravens, 22-10
Panthers +7 (ML +270) at Cardinals, 34-10
49ers +3.5 (ML +170) vs. Rams, 31-10
Vikings +3.5 (ML +155) at Chargers, 27-20
The largest favorites to cover
Bills (-13.5) at Jets, 45-17
Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Falcons, 43-3
Packers (-3) vs. Seahawks, 17-0
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The New Orleans Saints-Tennessee Titans (42.5) game started off well enough for UNDER bettors, as the two teams combined for just three points. Things picked up a little bit, with the Titans taking a 13-6 lead into the break.
The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the third quarter, with QB Ryan Tannehill hitting TE MyCole Pruitt for a 2-yard touchdown early in the quarter to make it 20-6 in favor of the home side, while RB Mark Ingram II ripped off a 13-yard run to cut the lead to 20-12. PK Brian Johnson was doing his part, pushing the PAT wide, keeping it at 32 points.
As the fourth quarter went on, the team's traded field goals, with Tennessee hanging onto a 23-15 lead at 5:33 to go. UNDER bettors were looking good until QB Trevor Siemian threw a dart into the right corner of the end zone to WR Marquez Callaway with 1:16 left, pushing the total OVER with 44 points. Not only did it flip the total to OVER, but if you were laying Titans -3, that dried up, too. The Titans had been covering since late in the second quarter until that point.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Carolina Panthers-Arizona Cardinals (41.5) game ended up going OVER in the final few minutes, but not how you would think.
Panthers QB Cam Newton was used in a pair of goal-line packages in the first quarter in his return to the team. He ran in a 2-yard touchdown just inside of four minutes. After the Cardinals gifted the ball back to the Panthers, Newton again entered on the Arizona 2 at 8:39 to go, tossing a pass to WR Robby Anderson to make it 14-0.
OVER bettors were liking the way this was shaping up, although the Panthers settled for three field goals rather than touchdowns in the remainder of the first half, making it 23-0 at half.
The Cardinals could only muster a third-quarter field, while RB Chuba Hubbard punched one in for score, followed by a two-point conversion. Carolina had a surprising 31-3 lead.
RB James Conner ran one in from 11 yards out at 9:19 to go, and the OVER looked inevitable. However, there was no scoring for nearly six minutes. For whatever reason, the Panthers elected to boot a 27-yard field goal with 3:26 to go, pushing the lead to 34-10. That was all the scoring, and the OVER just came in.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 10 was the Detroit Lions-Pittsburgh Steelers (40.5) game. QB Ben Roethlisberger was out on the reserve/COVID list, so QB Mason Rudolph got the nod against the winless Lions. WR Chase Claypool was also out due to injury, so the Pittsburgh offense would look a little different. The total opened at 43.5, and tumbled to 40 or 40.5, depending on the shop, thanks to the Big Ben news.
There were plenty of opportunities for late scores, but turnovers ended up squelching any offense from the 11:31 mark in the fourth quarter and into overtime. The teams settled for a 16-16 tie, and an UNDER result.
The second lowest total on the board was the Panthers-Cardinals (41.5), and we covered that one above. And the Saints-Titans (42.5) was the third lowest, and we also touched on that devastating finish.
On the flip side, the highest total on the board for Week 10 was in the Atlanta Falcons-Dallas Cowboys (55) game. The Pokes did their part, putting up 43 points, including 29 points in the second quarter. Atlanta managed a field goal in the first quarter, and that's all they would muster for the entire day.
In the primetime games, the UNDER was 2-1, with the MNF game between the Los Angeles Rams-San Francisco 49ers (50.5) well in the UNDER column. The UNDER is now 14-13-1 (51.9%) through 28 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 11
Green Bay at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Packers (8-2) and Vikings (4-5) square off in an important NFC North Division battle at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis in Week 11. The Packers got signal caller QB Aaron Rodgers back from the reserve/COVID list, and it was a slow go most the day. Trying to dodge Seahawks defenders and snowflakes, Rodgers had difficulty after having no practiced all week. The Packers ended up pulling away for a 17-0 win and cover thanks to reserve RB AJ Dillon, who had two rushing touchdowns in place of the injured RB Aaron Jones (knee).
Green Bay is now 8-2 SU, and it has covered nine in a row. The UNDER is also 7-0 in the past seven for the Pack. The Vikings also won a big road game against the Los Angeles Chargers, 27-20. Minnesota is 3-1 ATS across the past four, while the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven.
The underdog is 9-4 ATS across the past 13 meetings, with the UNDER also going 9-4 during the span. The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in the Twin Cities.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Texans are coming off a bye, while the Titans inched by the Saints 23-21, losing the cover late.
Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS, and it hasn't won since Week 1. The Texans are also 2-5 ATS across the past seven after covering the first two games of the season. The UNDER is 3-1 in the past four, and 5-2 across the past seven.
For Tennessee, no RB Derrick Henry (foot surgery), no problem. They lost the NFL's leading rusher prior to the Los Angeles Rams game two weeks ago. They won that one 28-16, and topped New Orleans 23-21, winning or the sixth straight outing. The Titans are also 5-1 ATS during the span, and 7-2 ATS across the past nine overall.
The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Nashville, while the favorite is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and the home team is 8-2 ATS in the previous 10 in this series. The UNDER is also 4-1 in the past five in Nashville.
Miami at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Dolphins surprised the visiting Baltimore Ravens Thursday, winning 22-10. The Jets, they became the first team since 1966 to allow 45 or more points in three out of four games, falling to the Buffalo Bills 45-17.
Is there optimism in South Florida? There is if you're betting. Miami is 2-0 SU, and 2-0-1 ATS across the past three, hitting the UNDER in each of the outings. The defense has yielded a total of just 19 points in the past two.
The Dolphins have owned this series lately, going 6-0-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five visits to New Jersey. The UNDER is 4-0 in the past four at the Meadowlands, while going 5-1 in the past six meetings overall in the series.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals were surprised by the visiting Panthers, 34-10, falling for the second time in the past three games. Arizona lost backup QB Colt McCoy to a pectoral injury. He was filling in for QB Kyler Murray, who missed a second straight game. WR DeAndre Hopkins was also missing his second straight outing.
The Seahawks were blanked for the first time with QB Russell Wilson under center. The last time Seattle was shut out was Sept. 18, 2011, a 24-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall, while Seattle is 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games vs. NFC teams. The road team is 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 games in this series, with the underdog 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings. Arizona is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six visits to Lumen Field.
