I guess the ghost of the drunk has not been around because alabama has only beaten Auburn 1 time in Tuscalooser in 3 centruries of playing football there.
Who's not going big on Auburn?
- Thread starter LDB
- Start date
I have a dime on Auburn right now and will probably go bigger. Auburn has the best players money can buy. Off a bye week, you gotta be kidding me. There is a ton of value in Auburn plus 4.5
I will tell you exactly why Bama will or could win this game, ITS THE IRON BOWL! If you are from Bham like your profile says then you should know that. Anything can and will happen in the Iron Bowl. It always does. Its a rivalry game, records, and lines mean nothing. After seeing around 30 (too many to count) of these games in person, I know that and you should too. Being a Bama fan I hope Bama wins but I wouldnt be surprised if Auburn wins by 20. I also wouldnt be surprised if Bama wins by 20. You just never know with this game, thats why I never bet on this one. I just watch and enjoy. All these Auburn fans are so upset about the line around here, if you are an Auburn fan and are so confident in Auburn (Cam) then you should be happy with the line and be betting it big time. GL!:toast:
Well, I understand about the anything can happen but the fact is the higher ranked team almost always win this one. I'm not upset, I'm happy as hell we are the dog in this one. :0074
the lines maker was simply brilliant with this line... they have the au money right where they want it... don't think the line comes into play in this one... house wins another !
don't believe thats true...... the dog in this one don't & won't hunt..... me thinks your holding onto fools gold....the fact is : " the higher ranked team almost always win this one "....... thats funny ...
I love how you think you know more about this game than I do.
Since 1981, the team with the better record has won the Iron Bowl 70 percent of the time. That's higher than the rate for many other late-season rivalry games, including Florida-Florida State, Oregon-Oregon State, Harvard-Yale, Georgia-Auburn, Michigan-Ohio State and USC-UCLA.
Auburn has two more wins than Alabama. When they are separated by two wins or more, the team with the better record has won 35 of 42 times (83 percent) since 1948. :sadwave:
i was thinkng more big picture... not this series... higher ranked teams in spots like this don't usually fare well for their backers.... i don't persume i know more than anyone... your with the average guy, i'm with the house... win or lose, i like my company !!!
AU will win by ten at least, and here is why:
Versus 5 common opponents this year
Auburn D ? allowing 5.5 yppl, 369 yds, 26 ppg,
Bama D ? allowing 5.4 yppl, 341 ypg, 20 ppg
Entire Season Bama D is allowing 4.7yppl to teams averaging 5.5 (+0.8)?.AU D allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.7 yppl (+0.5)?average Offense has 65-70 total plays/game which makes Bama D 21 yards better than Bama (+0.8-+0.5=+0.3 * 70 plays =21yards).
Vs 5 common opponents this year
AU O- 6.9 yppl, 482 ypg, 38 ppg
Bama O- 6.0yppl, 373 ypg, 24 ppg
Entire season
AU O is +1.8yppl (using same approach as D above)?Bama O is +1.2yppl, giving AU O vs Bama O a 42 yards edge.
O vs O and D vs D while interesting doesn?t really matter given the O plays D?AU O has +1.0 yppl edge on Bama D whereas Bama O has +0.6 yppl edge on AU D.
Bama had +3 TO margin when compared to Auburn (largely random and skews the yards per point ratio which explains the 5.4-5.5 yppl, similar total yardage, yet TD differential in ppg.
Bama O projects -0.1 ypr disadvantage rushing compared to a +1.8 ypr edge for the AU O?.Bama Pass O has +1.2 ypa edge compared to AU +1.0ypa.
For those of you who see the above as Sanskrit this equals very good match ups for AU.
That is all.
Versus 5 common opponents this year
Auburn D ? allowing 5.5 yppl, 369 yds, 26 ppg,
Bama D ? allowing 5.4 yppl, 341 ypg, 20 ppg
Entire Season Bama D is allowing 4.7yppl to teams averaging 5.5 (+0.8)?.AU D allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that average 5.7 yppl (+0.5)?average Offense has 65-70 total plays/game which makes Bama D 21 yards better than Bama (+0.8-+0.5=+0.3 * 70 plays =21yards).
Vs 5 common opponents this year
AU O- 6.9 yppl, 482 ypg, 38 ppg
Bama O- 6.0yppl, 373 ypg, 24 ppg
Entire season
AU O is +1.8yppl (using same approach as D above)?Bama O is +1.2yppl, giving AU O vs Bama O a 42 yards edge.
O vs O and D vs D while interesting doesn?t really matter given the O plays D?AU O has +1.0 yppl edge on Bama D whereas Bama O has +0.6 yppl edge on AU D.
Bama had +3 TO margin when compared to Auburn (largely random and skews the yards per point ratio which explains the 5.4-5.5 yppl, similar total yardage, yet TD differential in ppg.
Bama O projects -0.1 ypr disadvantage rushing compared to a +1.8 ypr edge for the AU O?.Bama Pass O has +1.2 ypa edge compared to AU +1.0ypa.
For those of you who see the above as Sanskrit this equals very good match ups for AU.
That is all.
