NBA SAT 032109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[easterntimezone]

This is a good play? I will blindly tail!

I'd put a smaller wager than the ML Ax - only b/c Everton should win against a meandering Portsmouth team that's in serious danger of being demoted to the next division down, but there's also the possibility of a tie/draw when you least expect it...

 

[axp59]

I'd put a smaller wager than the ML Ax - only b/c Everton should win against a meandering Portsmouth team that's in serious danger of being demoted to the next division down, but there's also the possibility of a tie/draw when you least expect it...

thank you sir and goodnight!

 

[easterntimezone]

you were the signal to noise ratio guy at covers weren't you ETZ?

Couldn't remain incognito forever, I guess...
kurby

Night bro'...

 

[joe_shmoe]

Hey Ax,

Just stopping by to say hi and thanks. Always appreciate all the hard work you and the rest of the fellas put in here.

-JS

 

[rragga2727]

hey ax, ny avg 100 poss per game but they are down to 97 in last three points per poss is 1., but down to .97 in last 3 . orlando is steady 95 poss 1.06 per poss but they avg .99 and are now giving up .92 in last 3 ....ny avgs 105 points a game 95 in last 3 ,now giving up 102 compared to their avg of 108..orl is steady 102 , but down to 88 per game in last 3 compared to season avg of 94. new york is runnin more set plays and with less efficiency which gives orlando time to set defense. orlando is consistent except for when the 3's are hitting, thats when they blow a team out. :director:

 

[rragga2727]

very interested in seeing line on port/milboth teams are significantly lowering the game totals of late milwaukee avgs 99 points ,but just 84 of late portland also 99 n 92 of late , d on mil avgs 100 92 of late port 95 w/ 91 of late pace/poss lower with points per poss significantly lower overall. might be worth

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Hi!

ATL @ CLE 194 -> will wait for the other lines but the "not under" is very interesting :SIB

NYK @ ORL 203 -> Under!!! :toast:

IND @ CHAR 199

BOS @ MEM 203

POR @ MIL 199

LAL @ CHI 202 -> looks good but don't have a feeling for that under! what you guys think?

WAS @ PHX 216

BOL :tongue
Joe

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

pretty early still, but so far we have....

atl/cavs open 185, current 183
70% = top over
30% = bottom under

ny/orl open 215 current 215
37%
63%

lal/chi open 211.5, current 211.5
88%
12%


I noticed that most line adjustments are made between 10am and 1pm central time.
.
.

 

[easterntimezone]

Oh, I hate this!,, I'm going to be a single game action junkie playing 1Q, 1H, Gm total...why not 2H?

Morning all - Ax, just remembered another Orlando blowout at home, this time W/ Alston at the point; against Miami and despite Wade's 50, still stepped on the Heat from the get go and won going away...

Everton tied w/ Portsmouth at the half - Everton starts brightly, but Portsmouth gradually edged themselves back into the game; home court/pitch advantage is especially pronounced in football/soccer so no surprise that playing at Fratton Park has lent Portsmouth a certain degree of resiliency after falling behind 1-0.

 

[axp59]

hey ax, ny avg 100 poss per game but they are down to 97 in last three points per poss is 1., but down to .97 in last 3 . orlando is steady 95 poss 1.06 per poss but they avg .99 and are now giving up .92 in last 3 ....ny avgs 105 points a game 95 in last 3 ,now giving up 102 compared to their avg of 108..orl is steady 102 , but down to 88 per game in last 3 compared to season avg of 94. new york is runnin more set plays and with less efficiency which gives orlando time to set defense. orlando is consistent except for when the 3's are hitting, thats when they blow a team out. :director:

Thanks rragga, I'll take this into consideration as I run some more numbers on this game. I haven't jumped in full 1U yet but I've found nothing thus far holding me back

 

[axp59]

Hi!

ATL @ CLE 194 -> will wait for the other lines but the "not under" is very interesting :SIB

NYK @ ORL 203 -> Under!!! :toast:

IND @ CHAR 199

BOS @ MEM 203

POR @ MIL 199

LAL @ CHI 202 -> looks good but don't have a feeling for that under! what you guys think?

WAS @ PHX 216

BOL :tongue
Joe

Joe, I saw your posted plays for the record this morning and you know I don't disagree. Your POD is very interesting...I'm almost sold on this game! Thanks for sharing these numbers I'm assuming are your buy-ins

 

[axp59]

pretty early still, but so far we have....

atl/cavs open 185, current 183
70% = top over
30% = bottom under

ny/orl open 215 current 215
37%
63%

lal/chi open 211.5, current 211.5
88%
12%


I noticed that most line adjustments are made during 10am and 1pm central time.
.
.

It is early...God, I can't stop thinking about my waitress now as I look at these numbers

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

It is early...God, I can't stop thinking about my waitress now as I look at these numbers

what would ur waitress like in this case, Ax?

 

[axp59]

Morning all - Ax, just remembered another Orlando blowout at home, this time W/ Alston at the point; against Miami and despite Wade's 50, still stepped on the Heat from the get go and won going away...

Everton tied w/ Portsmouth at the half - Everton starts brightly, but Portsmouth gradually edged themselves back into the game; home court/pitch advantage is especially pronounced in football/soccer so no surprise that playing at Fratton Park has lent Portsmouth a certain degree of resiliency after falling behind 1-0.

Thanks ETZ...this lean is starting to become heavy on the action junkie possibilities.

Love the EPL update! I tried to play that last night and the juiced was jacke up to -140. I backed off since I have no dam idea if that's still value. You locked in on your ManU and CLE parlay?

 

[Eagle123]

Ax,
Just finished two dive today. Weather is excellent. The water is crystal clear and nice coral and fishes around. For any bros who are interesting in diving, Mar and April is the best month to diving in CEBU

It was a beautiful day. As beautiful as the MEM U yesterday.:toast: you are right Ax, you pay me the trip already.

So,are we locked on Orl U today already?

 

[axp59]

what would ur waitress like in this case, Ax?

I should really ask her but I'm sure O on NY/ORL and U on ATL/CLE

She'll see NY and say oh they play high scoring games

She'll see CLE and say oh they have a really good defense

I mean they are valid points but we all know there's more to it than that. She's a wonderful woman and I don't want to disparage her like this. It is not my intent. I just believe she represents Jane Q. Public

 

[easterntimezone]

Lakers: - 4.0

The Bulls seemingly would be the attractive option here, on fire as of late, dismantling good teams at home - Orlando, New Orleans, Boston (albeit an undermanned unit)... Then go on the road where they've been sorry and dispatch a sprightly Thunder team (and one that a lot of self-annointed 'sharp' bettors were drooling over in that game - much like last night's game against a road-poor Jazz).

Fakers let their arrogance get the better of 'em and enable the 76ers nip 'em, then build a 18 point lead against the lowly Warriors, only to lose focus and concentration yet again and allow Golden State back in the game, frustrating (not the 1st time this season) FG and 2nd Half ticket holders...

YET this is the same Fakers team that went East, beat Boston and handed the Cavs their SOLE loss at home... Later headed into San Antonio and dealt the Spurs a loss after San Antonio had the luxury of a few days off (that game should've been a red flag, by the way, for last night's game b/w Boston and San Antonio - the Spurs are definitely showing their age and no number of days off will remedy that).

The Lakers resemble an insecure big man on campus - do they want to stop the Bulls dead in their tracks? Emerge from the game w/ their superficial swagger intact and Kobe's smirk once more annoying in its ubiquity?

There'll always be those who back the Fakers no matter what the situation (and usually come out on the short end); the Bulls here are the so-designated 'SEXY' choice - but it's a square dance (as much as one can be when it involves the Lakers) - leaning/riding w/ the 'UGLY' one:

Lakers: - 4.0

 

[easterntimezone]

Thanks ETZ...this lean is starting to become heavy on the action junkie possibilities.

Love the EPL update! I tried to play that last night and the juiced was jacke up to -140. I backed off since I have no dam idea if that's still value. You locked in on your ManU and CLE parlay?

Still got that parlay locked... Looking over the other NBA games w/ lines out and waiting for the Sportsbooks to issue the remaining ones...

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

I should really ask her but I'm sure O on NY/ORL and U on ATL/CLE

She'll see NY and say oh they play high scoring games

She'll see CLE and say oh they have a really good defense

I mean they are valid points but we all know there's more to it than that. She's a wonderful woman and I don't want to disparage her like this. It is not my intent. I just believe she represents Jane Q. Public

Personally, I've learned that betting like Jane or John always gets me in the hole. I'm more about "against the grain" or "strong stats" that support a favorable out come.

Will be back to update as soon as some more lines pop up.

 

[axp59]

:topic:
I like WAS -1 and under 139.5