weasel droppings

[gardenweasel]

10-8-1.....ytd....after a rough start we had a two week 5-0 run followed by a disastrous 1-4 week...and last week we went 2-1(losing on an unnecessary field goal with under a minute left).....whattaya gonna do?:shrug:

1)giants-3(large)...lots of folks on the giants...and for good reason...bills are off a big home dog win versus philly...the score was misleading(outgained 8.2 to 5.3 yards/play)..the reason for the bills win was a +4 turnover ratio. ...buffalo is getting outplayed but winning due to turnovers... buffalo's d` is poor. .... dead last in rushing defense allowing 5.5 YPR and 19th in pass defense allowing 7.6 yppa....


just don`t turn it over...it`s that simple(unless you`re manning...lol)....giants losing back to back home games would really hurt them...must win...i`m sure they`re asses are chafed after losing as 9 point faves last week...


2)teaser(6 point)...ravens-1/jets-1(large)....ravens coming home off the bye...texans missing their two best players(johnson and williams)...i think the ravens are just better in the trenches... and now have a deep threat to keep defenses from concentrating on ray rice.....very difficult team to beat well rested and at home...the jets are home off 3 consecutive road losses (raidas/ravens and new england)...that`s a brutal schedule...i expect a big bounceback here vs a qb-challenged, winless club...otherwise,the jets are in real trouble(really a must win)...could be their season right here...mangold said he`d have to be dead not to play in this game(that`s big)...


already have the ravens teased with detroit(my largest wager of the season),but since that game`s already in the bag,no count-y on record ...

3)cowboys+7(small)...dangerous play vs the pats in foxboro...but the pats` defense is horrible and it looks like austin and dez bryant are a go...should be a shoot-out...i`ll take the better "d" with a touchdown...(small)...

4)bucs +7(-125...small)..i hate doing it,but i have to... this number is too good...public all over n.o...they`re defensively poor(29th against the run and 14th versus the pass)....on their 3rd consecutive road game....teams on their 3rd road game are 63-106-1 ATS if won first 2 games (as the saints have)....bucs coming off a blowout loss(which sets them up for an 85-44 ats trend)...

bucs look terrible...everybody and their brother on n.o.....might just throw a penny or two on the moneyline... :SIB (that weasel dude is dropping some serious acid this week).....o.k....we`ll see.....

 

[ppabart]

Wease....I like TB too. 3 in a row on the road for the Saints. Always a tough trend to Buc

 

[Cie]

Ur on target imo. Bucs have 2 significant injuries or I'd be on them.

 

[gardenweasel]

Ur on target imo. Bucs have 2 significant injuries or I'd be on them.

i know...i try and avoid wagering against brees...he`s been good to me this year......and common sense tells me no.....it`s strictly a numbers play......

g.l. cie and barty...

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I'm going to to join you on the Giants. If they don't cover, I'll be sure to return and post this thread into the dumpster.

 

[gardenweasel]

I'm going to to join you on the Giants. If they don't cover, I'll be sure to return and post this thread into the dumpster.

"weasel`s thread leaves the forum if the picks suck...or it gets the hose"

/jame gumb....:lol:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Your thread is safe. Push sure beats a loss. They had the ball at the one and couldn't push it in late.

 

[gardenweasel]

You're thread is safe. Push sure beats a loss. They had the ball at the one and couldn't push it in late.

i know...pathetic....giants move the ball up and down the field....buffalo gets 2 long scores.....and then the goal line b.s....

all you can do is embrace the suck.....:nooo:

 

[gardenweasel]

13-8-2 ytd....3-0-1last week(giants had the ball 2nd and goal at the bills 1 late and settled for the field goal:mj16: ...giving us a push instead of a win....also had a nice little win with tampa on the moneyline(that i don`t count in the record)... but i digress..that was then,this is now...

1)jaguars+10.5(-130).....line went just where i hoped it would...who`s taking the jags over the ravens in a monday night bailout game?...me,that`s who.......

poor scheduling position for my ravens(we saw a similar scenario earlier in the year vs tennessee)..jags home off a road game...and going back on the road for 3 straight afterward.......i believe that the raven offense is overrated...and the jag defense underrated..

just how many monday night games do the jags see?...i expect a solid effort coming on the heels of their strong game vs pittsburgh in pittsburgh..strong trend favoring the jags here...taking the double digit home dog in a rare monday night appearance,in a solid spot with a solid defense...

2)indy+14.5...the saints are gonna roll indy after losing last week...right?...it`s actually a misconception... home favorites of more than 13 points are just 16-42-2 ats the week after a loss, including 5-30-2 ats after losing as a favorite...haven`t been thrilled with the saint "d"(particularly vs the run,which the colts will do plenty of)...

add in kreutz` sudden retirement...he`s their center...not an insignificant loss...

3)houston +3(waiting till gametime...hoping for a 3.5)..more of a gut play..not a ton of rationale for this one...i don`t think the early bye has been necessarily a huge advantage this year...

i like houston`s defense(ranked 10th even without their stud williams)...this kid barwin can rush the qb...and i`m not sure how much more important andre johnsons` loss is to houston compared to kenny britt for tenn....theres still owen daniels,walter and jacoby jones...

and i just love the one-two punch running game of foster and ben tate...watched em last week vs the ravens and they are brutal...tennessee`s running game is still parked in the garage...

i expect a close,hard fought game between the two teams vying for the division...a loss puts houston a game and a half back of the titans...as i said,i watched houston vs the ravens last week and the score wasn`t indicative of just how tough and physical that game was...houston impressed me...it`s also one of the reasons i like the jags to cover the huge spread monday night...

was checking through one of the tout sites and very few like houston ...the titans seem to be getting all the love here...so be it...


smithers!...release the hounds !!!!

 

[MadJack]

Good call on Houston, I knew I should have taken them but couldn't do it. I pretty much layed low today with the shit card dealt to us. Some seriously boring matchups.

 

[gardenweasel]

Good call on Houston, I knew I should have taken them but couldn't do it. I pretty much layed low today with the shit card dealt to us. Some seriously boring matchups.

tell me about it...houston was the "good"...now comes" the bad and the ugly":lol: ......i have to be fricking insane to be taking the colts and the jags....:facepalm:...but that`s what the stats tell me....:shrug:

well,on second thought,f-ck the stats...thinking about trying to tease my out of this...:142smilie

nice hit on the stoolers...i hope you feel dirty now...

 

[gardenweasel]

5 dimes to the rescue...they put up some lines for next week already....so i grabbed the giants in a tease with n.o. and the ravens....gives me some middle opportunities to boot....

wth,we`re havin` fun here....how the hell else you gonna watch this horseshit game without some action going every which way?.....

i know i couldn`t...

 

[MadJack]

5 dimes to the rescue...they put up some lines for next week already....so i grabbed the giants in a tease with n.o. and the ravens....gives me some middle opportunities to boot....

wth,we`re havin` fun here....how the hell else you gonna watch this horseshit game without some action going every which way?.....

i know i couldn`t...

:toast:

I always hated teasers but this year they have come in handy using them with bets down the road. Just to have action :shrug:

 

[gardenweasel]

15-9-2 ytd....2-1 last week....

reticent to use teasers as actual posted plays for the record....but today looks so tempting...why not grab one...low hanging fruit...why overthink things?...

1)10 pt teaser:houston-1/2/ravens-2/san fran even........

i mean c`mon.....jags may not score vs houston`s revamped defense....coming off the big upset over the ravens...the only thing that`s worrisome is the fact that houston hung 41 on the titans last week( a good indicator for an offensive letdown this week)...but with that defense,arian foster and owen daniel (at home) and a past history vs the jags is just too compelling(and that was when the jags jad a semblance of an offense)....i don`t see houston losing here(although this one is the most worrisome,imo)...

the ravens should absolutely crush the cardinals without beanie wells...they usually bounce back with a vengeance at home after laying down llike dogs the previous week on the road...

the browns offense without massaquoi and hillis going cross country to play maybe the hottest item in the league?....after barely winning the previous week at home vs qb-less seattle 6-3?...

c`mon man...

2)seattle+3(-125)..cincy`s defense is no joke...surprisingly,seattle`s isn`t that bad either(allowing 3.1 ypc,best in the league)....getting their qb back here,and marshawn lynch...they`ve hung tough at home thus far...

cincy coming off 3 straight wins and the bye(bye`s have been poison...3-9 vs the spread...probably because of the new collective bargaining agreement forcing 4 days rest...interupting a team`s flow) ...seattle coming off an abysmal 6-3 defensive struggle loss at cleveland last weekend sans their qb and top running back..they suck right?...

the perfect set-up...

62-32 trend favors seattle here...no cedric benson for cincy...is cincy really this good?...i kind of doubt it...


3)seattle/cincy under 38(-118 dimes)....see #2 above..cincy`s defense is for real..period... and seattle`s ain`t terrible....cincy has been going over this year...i think it comes to a stop here...cincy #2 defensively/seattle # 15...cincy #22 offensively/seattle 31st....

4)squeelers +3...might be a sucker bet...new england has a history of beating the squeelers.....but it`s really hard not taking pittsburgh at home getting points when they are the #3 total ypg defense(#2 passing) vs the worst ypg defense...

i sense an uptick on the squeelers` play the last few weeks...and the pats are coming off the dreaded bye week..

70% on the pats at a reputable consensus site...
that surprises me a bit...real mystique with brady and the pats regardlesss of that horrific defense.i was always told defense wins championships...maybe not.....see the packers...still going with the home dog...

interesting game...

 

[gardenweasel]

17-11-2 ytd....2-2 last week

last week was wasted by an int return and a punt return for td`s with roughly 5 minutes remaining in the seattle game...whatever...

this,imo,is the strongest wagering card from top to bottom of the year... lots of crappy teams in good situations

1)san diego+6...right now,imo,green bay is a tad overrated(shocking,i know).....rodgers is on another planet,granted...he`s carrying this team... ..but they have little ground game(25th)...their defense is poor(25th ypr and 23rd yppa)......you can`t continue to keep covering large spreads on the road with this kind of statistical baggage...

san diego is coming off 3 consecutive road games(love that) and i expect rivers to be totally focused after shitting the bed and personally losing the game at k.c.(loss fell squarely on rivers)...

matter of fact,i`m playing this on the moneyline...1st loss for green bay...





2)steelers -3(-125)...not much to say here...it pains me to do this but it appaears these are 2 teams heading in different directions...steelers hitting their stride after a shaky start....the offensive line showing more cohesion....the ravens now struggling with poor teams after starting strong..even at home(which is highly unusual)...and their offensive line?....old and slow...aside from a flashy game vs the lowly rams,the 2nd wideout position has been a real problem for the ravens...no consistency...


throw in home field,a large differential at qb,and a large dose of revenge and it all spells steelers...

hate doing it but you can`t wager with your heart....




3)tenn-2( -120)...bengal defense has been amazing,period(but tennessee`s has been pretty decent also)..and they aren`t facing an offensive juggernaut here ..

cincy`s success has been equal parts great defense and a good deal of smoke and mirrors......i can remember at least 2 turnovers for touchdowns(and one special teams td) very late in games that shaded the result ....and flat out,their offense is shaky...

chris johnson splitting carries with javon ringer(who i love)...a slashing back who, i think ,would start for many teams...i think this also helps johnson....takes the pressure off and gives him a goose...

tennessee is on their 3rd straight home game(excellent set-up)...cincy winning ugly...the public loves them here...and i love that...




4)washington +4...bucking another public team...the skins looked dreadful last week on the road vs buffalo..they were shut out....are they this bad?...no....and theres a 36-15 trend that points to this scenario being a favorable one for the skins...

san fran is another public darling...they`ve been successful traveling west to east this year...but not this time...i still have real questions about alex smith...and they`re winning directly correlates to their turnover ratio(+10),not necessarily superb play...

harbaugh is the sexy,fiery coach...i predict they overlook a skins team coming home desperate for a win to remain relevant in the nfc east...




5)indy+7...this one i almost didn`t play because the respective injury issues..julio jones coming back...the colts have numerous injuries...if not for these issues,i was gonna touch the moneyline...still might...

but the colts have been competitive at home...and in truth,the falcons are a statistically mediocre team..high profile,yes...but statistically mediocre....

indy coming in off 3 straight road games..who likes this clusterfuck of a team getting 7 at home?....me that`s who....that`s a play for me...




6)jets +3....why?...the bills` d and their shoutout of washington last week...stats and situations are what i look for..and this one qualifies...

the bills defense is bad..period..regardless of last week`s shutout..27th vs the run and 20th vs the pass...the jets` d`?...12th and 10 respectively....

i know byes haven`t been a favorable set-up this year...but i think here it might actually help the jets...

bills another team living off the turnover(see the patriot win).....i have always liked the jets better as road dogs...

if the hot sexy teams continue to be hot and sexy,i`ll go down in flames(along with the books)....if it turns out that this is one of those "the public gets f-cked" weekends,i should do o.k......

g.l.

 

[MadJack]

Man, we are complete opposites about the Ravens this week. I really think they step it up a couple notches. Those last 2 games were hard for them to get up for. They assumed too much. When they found themselves down big at halftime last week they woke up and it turned the team completely around.

 

[vinnie]

GL Weasie ! :toast:

 

[gardenweasel]

Man, we are complete opposites about the Ravens this week. I really think they step it up a couple notches. Those last 2 games were hard for them to get up for. They assumed too much. When they found themselves down big at halftime last week they woke up and it turned the team completely around.

i honestly hope you`re right...nothing would please me more than to be up on them in the standings with our remaining schedule...and no more games with them....

and the fricking bungles?...they have a horseshoe the size of the louisiana purchase up their asses this year....

this game is bigger than big...

 

[ppabart]

GL Weasie ! :toast:

Thats a terrible towel alright :facepalm:

 

[MadJack]

i honestly hope you`re right...nothing would please me more than to be up on them in the standings with our remaining schedule...and no more games with them....

and the fricking bungles?...they have a horseshoe the size of the louisiana purchase up their asses this year....

this game is bigger than big...

This is for the division title :shrug:

Next week PIT goes to Cincy. If they can beat NE, BAL and CIN back to back to back, they deserve it.